Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Was he the pharaohs son or the shamen 

He was a slave as far as I remember 

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

He was a slave as far as I remember 

Different story then I’m thinking of warlock which is where I’ve got shamen from however it’s the slave 40 years on helping a prince regain his throne so same carector different story

[King Penda]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Exactly my point.

@spygirl are you suggesting single mothers here eat grass 16 hours a day?! Possibly controversial, but I like the lateral thinking 

Yes but they tend to be the more educated and ambitious ones they don’t let cows shit in there water

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Exactly my point.

@spygirl are you suggesting single mothers here eat grass 16 hours a day?! Possibly controversial, but I like the lateral thinking 

smoke grass 16 hours a day.

[Mapper]

1 barrel of oil contains how many man hours labour worth of energy?

Whatever the exact figure is it's a shit load.

It's bought us time to do all manner of superfluous things.

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I tend to think of it the other way around. Firstly, population projections are nonsense and have always been wrong, no one has any idea what the world will be like in 2100. Second, population over the last 200 years correlates very closely with oil consumption. It's basically free energy, I've written here before that having access to petroleum at $60 a barrel is equivalent to having a bunch of stored manual labour at rates cheaper than slaves were to feed. It's the only thing that has given us the luxury of supporting a large population on this planet. If nuclear fusion comes along, different story, but there is nothing else with this energy density around.

So yes, Africa still needs to catch up, but the progression out of poverty in the last decades has been astonishing. And when people come out of poverty, they stop having lots of babies. Children are insurance, welfare and labour in poor countries. Just look at Ireland, there were over ten children in each of my grandparents families time, when there was no social welfare and widespread poverty. 4 or 5 in my parents time, and a whole bunch with one or none in my generation. My son has three first cousins, I have about 25. I think the population will naturally decline before political tensions spill over, though of course there will be resource wars along the way.

An interesting phenomenon is how pregnancy rates predict recessions. People in aggregate know when its a good time to have babies (lots of cheap oil, peace, growth), and when it's not. I think as pressures come off the planet as population naturally peaks, a lot of the craziness we see around us goes away, like all the green/climate stuff. Emissions will naturally decline. All the tech developed during this unusual 200 year explosion of population and innovation will remain (as long as they don't burn it down like the library of Alexandria. I suppose information is more distributed now). So our children, or maybe childrens children as you say  could possilby have a world with much of the good things we've invented, without the pressure of growth. I agree we will have major dislocations along the way, and I have a lot to prepare my son for.

Has anyone every sat back and said "why is all about growth anyway? It's a finite world, why is everything grow this, grow that." If our population is no longer growing, we don't need to grow at all costs. Of course it's the fiat monetary system driving it, you, your pension, your wages, your company all have to keep growing without ever catching up as the interest on the debt that our money is based on is not created with it. But that'll change.

Thanks CP, I think it's useful for the macro thesis of this thread, to maybe spell out where the population increases will be. South America and Asia will stop growing by mid century. But It's Africa where the - shockingly high - population increases will be emanating, from 1.3 bn today, to 4.3 bn by 2100 apparently. I take your point about difficulty of making long term predictions. But if we think changes in wealth is pivotal, then we do have other comparable countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and which have all dragged themselves from similar starting levels of poverty over the last 70 years. Btw I think your being far too optimistic comparing the rapid changes in intergenerational family sizes in Ireland to that of developing countries. Anyway, for India, Indonesia, Brazil, over the last 70 years, each country has grown it's population by a factor of 4X. Disparate countries, yet each has same increase? Just a coincidence?                                                                                So it seems Africa will represent most of all future global growth in world population. I do think the forecasts will turn out to be accurate, if anything such forecasts have been historically too conservative. Africa is a continent I know, but i don't think it unfair to say it is characterised by corruption levels, unstable institutions, divisive tribal hatreds, not seen elsewhere in the world. I think it's useful to look at South Africa, where it's population has doubled since 1990, and its economy has gone into reverse since end of apartheid. And the less said about Zimbabwe the better. It just seems, whatever aspect of way of looking, Africa has so little going for it. But perhaps Chinese investment might help speed up development however from what I understand ordinary Africans already dislike the Chinese having any influence over them.                                                                                                                                                     The link below has good info and graphs...                                                                      https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/

[C-gull]

On 13/03/2021 at 12:11, AWW said:

Low single digit inflation is really quite an amazing thing. Most don't realise what effect it has on them until far later than is ideal (I include myself in this). When I was doing A-levels, I scraped together enough money to buy a lovely Simon and Patrick cedar wood guitar. I paid full RRP of £250. The same guitar now costs £550. I remember looking at Gibson Les Pauls and thinking that a grand is a ludicrous amount of money for a guitar. Want one now? That'll be £2200 please, sir.

Most people don't buy items like these, which haven't been outsourced to China or benefited from Moore's law. They just see that a fifty inch telly is half the price it cost five years ago and feel richer.

I did exactrly the same as you. Same guitar and everything, it's aged brilliantly. I nearly shit the bed looking at Fenders last year

[King Penda]

14 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks CP, I think it's useful for the macro thesis of this thread, to maybe spell out where the population increases will be. South America and Asia will stop growing by mid century. But It's Africa where the - shockingly high - population increases will be emanating, from 1.3 bn today, to 4.3 bn by 2100 apparently. I take your point about difficulty of making long term predictions. But if we think changes in wealth is pivotal, then we do have other comparable countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and which have all dragged themselves from similar starting levels of poverty over the last 70 years. Btw I think your being far too optimistic comparing the rapid changes in intergenerational family sizes in Ireland to that of developing countries. Anyway, for India, Indonesia, Brazil, over the last 70 years, each country has grown it's population by a factor of 4X. Disparate countries, yet each has same increase? Just a coincidence?                                                                                So it seems Africa will represent most of all future global growth in world population. I do think the forecasts will turn out to be accurate, if anything such forecasts have been historically too conservative. Africa is a continent I know, but i don't think it unfair to say it is characterised by corruption levels, unstable institutions, divisive tribal hatreds, not seen elsewhere in the world. I think it's useful to look at South Africa, where it's population has doubled since 1990, and its economy has gone into reverse since end of apartheid. And the less said about Zimbabwe the better. It just seems, whatever aspect of way of looking, Africa has so little going for it. But perhaps Chinese investment might help speed up development however from what I understand ordinary Africans already dislike the Chinese having any influence over them.                                                                                                                                                     The link below has good info and graphs...                                                                      https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/

A typical African hates the Chinese but knows not a single one how many Africans have I met and chatted with in the last 2 years at least 100 from over 15 country’s I’ve got 4/5 friends on Facebook that are real Africans .

[King Penda]

10 minutes ago, C-gull said:

I did exactrly the same as you. Same guitar and everything, it's aged brilliantly. I nearly shit the bed looking at Fenders last year

My sons trying to give me a 72 Gibson acoustic to learn to prat about on the kids would eat it 

[C-gull]

6 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

My sons trying to give me a 72 Gibson acoustic to learn to prat about on the kids would eat it 

Must be worth a bit, how would he feel if you sold it?!

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

Does make you wonder what's happened to all the money that's poured into Africa in the last 40 years.

You'd think they'd have managed to come up with the idea of creating reservoirs and a piping system to get it to almost every single house like the rest of the world has managed.

Have a look in some Swiss bank accounts and you will find your answer....and don't believe the Developed nations were not complicit in this, foreign aid isn't about helping the less fortunate, its about carrying political favour/allegiance.

[Barnsey]

9 hours ago, spygirl said:

Fed sharply upgrades US growth forecast to 6.5% for 2021   

Central bank signals no rate rise until at least 2024 despite offering more optimistic outlook

https://www.ft.com/content/3d7704d3-a312-4294-95bc-90233f469ccd

If you've a lot of of variable debt then you need to be bracing...

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, harp said:

Africa and Africans are fucked. Always have been and always will be. You can take the kaffir out the bush but you'll never take the bush out the kaffir.
I know as I'm from Africa. Rhodesia, a beauiful country, now Zimbabwe, a utter shit hole thanks to the British and US goverment and their insistance on "one man one vote".

Africa, the child that was never allowed to grow up (develop with tech advances) as the parents (colonists) would never let go.

[MrXxxx]

Just as a `warning` to any newbies...I was reading LSE forum last year (yes I know, but I like to get an idea of sentiment) about the time of the RR. share reissue and some were stating after reissue they would drop from 80p down to 35p and stay there. Six months later and they have never dropped below 75p, and were top sliced yesterday at 128p...moral of the story, don't believe the shit these `experts` spout...unless of course its on this thread...and then only if its concerning pizza ovens!

[Harley]

5 hours ago, C-gull said:

Must be worth a bit, how would he feel if you sold it?!

What's the best way to sell a hardly used Gibson Les Paul?  Or should I now add it to my portfolio?  Worth almost as much as my "revised" CCL holding!

[Harley]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Just as a `warning` to any newbies...I was reading LSE forum last year (yes I know, but I like to get an idea of sentiment) about the time of the RR. share reissue and some were stating after reissue they would drop from 80p down to 35p and stay there. Six months later and they have never dropped below 75p, and were top sliced yesterday at 128p...moral of the story, don't believe the shit these `experts` spout...unless of course its on this thread...and then only if its concerning pizza ovens!

it's far worse.  My partner buys in pizza bases!

[Lightscribe]

30 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Just as a `warning` to any newbies...I was reading LSE forum last year (yes I know, but I like to get an idea of sentiment) about the time of the RR. share reissue and some were stating after reissue they would drop from 80p down to 35p and stay there. Six months later and they have never dropped below 75p, and were top sliced yesterday at 128p...moral of the story, don't believe the shit these `experts` spout...unless of course its on this thread...and then only if its concerning pizza ovens!

LSE mainly consists of retired boomers logging on there to pass their day. They mainly argue, moan, talk up their book, talk up themselves, what they’ll buy with the profits or how big their pensions, savings, investments are in a pissing contest.

I did however shill Rolls Royce on this very thread at the time. Was one of my best plays, have taken profits now however as I think there’ll be another aviation industry realisation smack down.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

LSE mainly consists of retired boomers logging on there to pass their day. They mainly argue, moan, talk up their book, talk up themselves, what they’ll buy with the profits or how big their pensions, savings, investments are in a pissing contest.

I did however shill Rolls Royce on this very thread at the time. Was one of my best plays, have taken profits now however as I think there’ll be another aviation industry realisation smack down.

I just could never feel comfortable with a website using "LSE" as its name, even if perfectly justified.

[BearingUp]

IBTL has been discussed here as a short-term safe haven for a possible BK.  Looks like it's taking another leg down.  Anyone buying, or has got a lot further to go?

[Boon]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the FOMC stuff yesterday calmed the treasury markets..... yet looking just now the 10yr has gone above 1.7% now and almost touched 1.75% today.

Would have thought this would be bad for equities but the markets seem to be shrugging it all off.

Anyone think that increasing yields may force the Fed's hand at some point? If the yields drop down to 1% like Hunter says that could propel the FTSE way past 7000 easily and maybe to new highs.

Got some cash waiting but if the Fed stepping in to reduce the yields is so easily telegraphed then maybe a dip won't even occur as it's already been priced in.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Hydrogen on Teeside, as DB said...

Not all heroes wear capes 

[AWW]

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/features-and-news/rollout-full-fibre-broadband

"Over the last few years, we’ve brought down the price that Openreach charges telecoms providers such as BT, Sky and TalkTalk for its entry-level (40 Mbit/s) superfast copper broadband service. We are now keeping this price flat in real terms, along with the prices of slower copper broadband packages.

Openreach’s fastest fibre services will continue to be free from pricing regulation, since people can choose the entry-level service as an alternative.

Openreach can also charge a bit more for regulated products that are delivered over full fibre instead of copper, because full fibre is consistently faster, and much more reliable.

This approach encourages investment by providing BT and its rivals with a margin to build the new networks. It also helps make sure people can still access affordable broadband.

We aim to allow all companies the opportunity to achieve a fair return over their whole investment period.

So we don’t expect to introduce cost-based prices for fibre services for at least ten years."

 

[Barnsey]

14 minutes ago, AWW said:

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/features-and-news/rollout-full-fibre-broadband

"Over the last few years, we’ve brought down the price that Openreach charges telecoms providers such as BT, Sky and TalkTalk for its entry-level (40 Mbit/s) superfast copper broadband service. We are now keeping this price flat in real terms, along with the prices of slower copper broadband packages.

Openreach’s fastest fibre services will continue to be free from pricing regulation, since people can choose the entry-level service as an alternative.

Openreach can also charge a bit more for regulated products that are delivered over full fibre instead of copper, because full fibre is consistently faster, and much more reliable.

This approach encourages investment by providing BT and its rivals with a margin to build the new networks. It also helps make sure people can still access affordable broadband.

We aim to allow all companies the opportunity to achieve a fair return over their whole investment period.

So we don’t expect to introduce cost-based prices for fibre services for at least ten years."

 

Got a VOXI (Vodafone) 5G SIM and bought a cheap 5G phone, I've had 236 Mbit/s in central Birmingham. £12 a month (no contract) for 12 GB and unlimited social media and streaming. Does make you think.

[CVG]

40 minutes ago, BearingUp said:

IBTL has been discussed here as a short-term safe haven for a possible BK.  Looks like it's taking another leg down.  Anyone buying, or has got a lot further to go?

I'm laddering in on 20% drops!!!

[Talking Monkey]

2 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm laddering in on 20% drops!!!

I've been laddering into ibtl too.