Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[goldbug9999]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Western governments are locked with huge structural deficits to fund mostly people to sit around.Its going to be very different once inflation runs and CBs slowly pullback.

If you mean a monetary tightening then no, I don't think thats ever going to happen. The future is exponential issuance and negative rates.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

IRs are not going up, shes just doing a "carney" (anyone remember the so-called forward guidance ?).

I also remember Carney putting up interest rates ... after he lowered them due to not getting the globalist brexit result he wanted. What a crooked midget wanker that Canadian cocksucker was.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

If you mean a monetary tightening then no, I don't think thats ever going to happen. The future is exponential issuance and negative rates.

Cant see them getting away with negative rates for very long if inflation is high, the door is closing where govts/central banks have total control .... thats what i tell myself anyway!

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

If you mean a monetary tightening then no, I don't think thats ever going to happen. The future is exponential issuance and negative rates.

Lots of issuance yet,but it will slow then stop once inflation runs.Rates will increase before they stop printing.Just over halfway through what they will print.The fascinating bit is how they do it and how governments respond.Remember the Fed is trying to keep the short end down at the moment,but not the longer end.I think the exponential comes at the end of this cycle kicking in now.Real assets will be key to navigate the whole thing.We are at the stage where half the people feasting on the printed free money will try to take it from the private sector worker and saver.Thats what we are trying to keep ahead and out of the way of.

[Hancock]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

but it will slow then stop once inflation runs.Rates will increase before they stop printing.

When do you envisage this? 

[Lightscribe]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-banks-to-allow-bitcoin-trading-in-2021-says-nydig-execs
 

As I said maybe the final melt up in crypto will suck some of the wind out the sails of the FAANGS or as CP says the other way around out of crypto into value stocks/gold etc. We shall see soon I suspect, but whatever the banks are planning, they are still letting crypto ride for now.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

When do you envisage this? 

6 months to a year outside of a BK.

[S Brule]

20 hours ago, 23rdian said:

Anyone else feel they just can't keep up with this coin stuff now? 

One of the biggest gainers today is a newish one called CumRocket. Imagine putting that on your tax return.

[23rdian]

4 minutes ago, S Brule said:

One of the biggest gainers today is a newish one called CumRocket. Imagine putting that on your tax return.

See what I mean, I genuinely don't know where all this stops now?

/googles CumRocket

[AWW]

5 minutes ago, S Brule said:

One of the biggest gainers today is a newish one called CumRocket. Imagine putting that on your tax return.

All these different coins just have to be the new tulip bulbs. Look at the market cap, nearly half a billion dollars. In an intangible thing called Cum Rocket. Mental.

[S Brule]

20 hours ago, Tingles said:

Think less 'coin stuff' and more how blockchain, smart contract and tokenisation technologies will affect participation, purchase/sell and storage in financial markets.  Maybe also consider how these technologies may relate to future wealth preservation and growth.

My hope is that one day blockchain tech will allow us to create our own bespoke ETFs, then I can shove my select telecoms and commodity shares together, topping up with a single purchase and keeping fees down. We could then share them like a blueprint, e.g. the Dosbods ETF

[23rdian]

4 minutes ago, AWW said:

All these different coins just have to be the new tulip bulbs. Look at the market cap, nearly half a billion dollars. In an intangible thing called Cum Rocket. Mental.

It does seem to be chasing its own tail. I still would love to get in one one from 0.0000005USD though. I guess what that's all about. Is there a comprehensive daily updated list of all the shitcoins anywhere?

[23rdian]

7 minutes ago, S Brule said:

My hope is that one day blockchain tech will allow us to create our own bespoke ETFs, then I can shove my select telecoms and commodity shares together, topping up with a single purchase and keeping fees down. We could then share them like a blueprint, e.g. the Dosbods ETF

Isnt that basically FreeTrade, T212, eToro etc?

This is an interesting thread.

https://community.freetrade.io/t/freetrade-baggers-stocks-you-think-will-double-in-2021

Google doc on first post. Performance has been pretty good I think.

[goldbug9999]

7 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

It does seem to be chasing its own tail. I still would love to get in one one from 0.0000005USD though. I guess what that's all about. Is there a comprehensive daily updated list of all the shitcoins anywhere?

https://coinmarketcap.com/

[planit]

The market makers quote a bid and offer price that they will buy or sell a share at.

From these you can work out a mid price.

Platforms try to label trades as a buy or sell depending on whether the trade is above or below the mid-price

 

In reality it is not very accurate as share trades themselves can move the price and therefore get counted in the wrong bin.

It is a good quick opinion though.

 

Edit:

On top of this there is a bit more complication as there are different types of trade and some are not reported immediately. Most platforms will label the type of trade so you can see (and google it for more info)

[nirvana]

13 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

maybe this is the SP500 top?

 

[Loki]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

WTI is an interesting juncture here, just poking above a 13 year resistance line from the 2008 spike, for only the 5th time in those 13 years. Today is US inventory day, and a big drawdown in inventory is expected. I think price will either get slapped down hard or jump through, and today is likely to give us the direction for the next few weeks and possibly months. Real yields are also breaking lower again, close to taking out the Feb 11 low, which will also indicate direction for reflation assets for the next while:

 

 

What do you reckon mate? It didn't seem to do much

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, PrincessDrac said:

Could anyone be kind enough to explain to me how twice as many shares can be bought than sold regarding a certain share in a single session.

Hoc and Fres experienced this phenomenon today.

See Fres below.

Trades. 3,366

Vol. Sold. 321,525

Sold Value. £3m

Vol. Bought. 727,500

Bought Value. £6m

Where can the shares be bought from? Maybe the MM pool?

Surely its a positive sign?

They can’t. For a buy there must be a sell. The data is spurious due to being based on allocating a trade as a buy or sell based on the traded price versus the bid offer quoted at the time. 

[Sugarlips]

If anyone wants to know where we are really at with Doge & NFTs, watch this (skip the first few mins). It’s hard to know what’s a joke and what’s real at this point

 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, leonardratso said:

exactly, the only way to measure their value is in good old fiat (gbp/usd etc). And the only real goal as far as i can see is to sell out and convert back to the fiat with a nice fat gain(or maybe loss). Still, i dont mind taking their dorrars.

Many holders of crypto will not sell, but instead will 'stake' their coins, effectively earning a yield from their coins. This can be done already but if BTC for example went to a million(!?) and could generate say 5% (paid in crypto of course!) that would be an irresistible prospect... oh well, I can but dream. But then again staking is just one innovation coming from the DeFi universe, and think the whole crypto/DeFi sector will massively disrupt/automate/even decimate the banking system. We often speculate on this thread that Asia will come to dominate this century, Asia already embraces tech in general and crypto in particular, if I were a Singaporean/Japanese billionaire I would be investing heavily in DeFi (who knows, Japan might resume its buying up of Western businesses that it begun in the 80s, though this time round it will be targeting the finance houses!!)

[Talking Monkey]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Every bubble ends with hot money going into the stupidest things (pets.com etc). They may just be letting crypto ride as a handy receptacle for hot money, thus protecting the stability of the assets they prefer. They can let it implode and then regulate it afterwards 'for our own protection', or they can tax it, implode it and regulate it at any moment. But it's just occurred to me as very convenient for them to have the worst of the stupidity concentrated in an unimportant (to them) sector. I'm sure bitcoin will come out of it like Amazon did (less a 95% haircut), but people are just gambling on toilet paper for the most part, just like the dotcom frenzy. In 1999 you could attract venture capital with nothing but a catchy domain name, quick to IPO and let the frenzy commence. Sounds familiar to me.

I remember the dotcom years, the utter idiocy of it and the hubris of some of those dotcom firms. It was quite something seeing companies valued at tens of billions go to virtually zero over a couple of years 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Many holders of crypto will not sell, but instead will 'stake' their coins, effectively earning a yield from their coins. This can be done already but if BTC for example went to a million(!?) and could generate say 5% (paid in crypto of course!) that would be an irresistible prospect... oh well, I can but dream. But then again staking is just one innovation coming from the DeFi universe, and think the whole crypto/DeFi sector will massively disrupt/automate/even decimate the banking system. We often speculate on this thread that Asia will come to dominate this century, Asia already embraces tech in general and crypto in particular, if I were a Singaporean/Japanese billionaire I would be investing heavily in DeFi (who knows, Japan might resume its buying up of Western businesses that it begun in the 80s, though this time round it will be targeting the finance houses!!)

Singapore did some announcements recently re support for DeFI stuff.  Let me see if I can find it:

https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252493215/Singapore-government-to-boost-blockchain-adoption

 

thats a bit old, but i saw a bunch of stuff this week re more active support as well.  I like Singapore on almost every level - the gvt is pretty uncorrupt and rational in terms of what it tries to do to protect the nation state.  It's the closest thing to an old Italian citystate that we have, and will, I think, be just as successful in coming years as long as China does not eat it.

[planit]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Singapore did some announcements recently re support for DeFI stuff.  Let me see if I can find it:

https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252493215/Singapore-government-to-boost-blockchain-adoption

 

thats a bit old, but i saw a bunch of stuff this week re more active support as well.  I like Singapore on almost every level - the gvt is pretty uncorrupt and rational in terms of what it tries to do to protect the nation state.  It's the closest thing to an old Italian citystate that we have, and will, I think, be just as successful in coming years as long as China does not eat it.

The Singapore government action has naff all to do with the Value of Crypto currencies. It doesn't suggest support of Crypto currencies or the value of Bitcoin.

Crypto bulls are misleading on a lot of what they say and will drag unsophisticated people into the investment to potentially be slaughtered.

The article is about using blockchain to revolutionise archaic, inefficient and crap processes but none of that requires a crypto currency to function, in the long term a real digital currency will help with the transactions but there is no reason why the blockchain transactions couldn't trigger a S$ transaction at a bank once the transaction is confirmed.

 

Currently CBs love the cryptos as they are like a top drawer where all hot money gets drained into so that real inflation can stay down. At some point in the future the whole drawer will be dumped, go up in smoke.

 

Let's get some facts straight, there is no space for 2000 competing crypto currencies. 95%+ will go to nothing once the useful winners are worked out. On top of that the future successful crypto currencies might not even be around yet. That means 100% of current crypto currencies might be worthless in 10 years time.

People will use the ones that are the most convenient and best at what they want. If I was starting from scratch I would say a 50% industry/50% gold backed crypto would be good as a store of value and a government supported* one would be best for my current account and transactions. Do either of these exist yet as I can start moving my finances over?

 

I hope everyone reading this thread has a proper get-out plan for crypto and invests/trades in it assuming it will go to zero at some point. I also hope this thread gets it's fair share of crypto billionaires, a lot of money will be made. The other side is $3tn+ will be lost.

 

* I believe the transactional ones will all end up as government based. Mainly because they HAVE to have control of their own country and they are also willing to change laws, cheat, lie and steal to get what they want.

 

[Lightscribe]

20 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-banks-to-allow-bitcoin-trading-in-2021-says-nydig-execs
 

As I said maybe the final melt up in crypto will suck some of the wind out the sails of the FAANGS or as CP says the other way around out of crypto into value stocks/gold etc. We shall see soon I suspect, but whatever the banks are planning, they are still letting crypto ride for now.

This is an article today in the FT explaining better than probably I did yesterday.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/630c225a-5b78-4eef-aecf-f5a4c95276d1

 

“Crypto trading volumes boom as activity cools on stock markets

More and more daytraders and institutional investors shift their attention to more speculative assets

Trading has boomed in cryptocurrency markets while volumes in stocks and derivatives have tumbled with an increasing number of daytraders and institutional investors setting their sights on more speculative assets. 

A slowdown in equities trading last month contrasted with a frenzied first quarter, during which activity jumped in “meme” stocks like GameStop and AMC, turbocharging the profits of banks, brokers and market makers at the heart of global markets. 

Monthly data from exchanges, and public filings, indicated retail investors, who had helped fuel the surge in share trading for much of the last year, turned their attention to betting in cryptocurrency markets.

Trading on major crypto exchanges soared to $1.7tn last month, from $1.2tn in March and less than $100bn in April 2020, according to CryptoCompare data collated by The Block Crypto.

Activity also picked up in some crypto derivatives. Trading volumes in ether futures on the CME, a preferred tool of many institutional investors seeking exposure to one of the hottest digital coins, soared to a record of almost 6,500 contracts on Tuesday compared with fewer than 1,000 on April 1.

But it has been even more speculative crypto assets like dogecoin, which started as a joke and has been promoted by entrepreneur Elon Musk, that have garnered particularly abrupt spikes in demand. 

“Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of Saturday Night Live,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. The Tesla founder is due to host the popular US television programme this weekend. 

The price of other coins including PancakeSwap and BakeryToken has also rocketed as interest in so-called “alt-coins”, tokens lesser known than industry leader bitcoin, has grown rapidly.

In stark contrast to the crypto fervour, turnover in US equities fell 27 per cent and equity options activity fell 14 per cent in April compared with March to reach their lowest levels since October, according to investment bank Jefferies. 

In Europe, Deutsche Börse said cash trading volumes totalled €147bn in April, compared with €206bn in March. Turnover on Switzerland’s stock exchange over the month of April fell 20 per cent to SFr110bn.

“The quarter ended and almost to the day it felt like everyone went on vacation,” said James Masserio, co-head of equities at Société Générale. “In the US there has been a strong connection between vaccines hitting their stride and spring break season, and I think a lot of people’s attention has been pulled away from the market.”

April’s equity trading volumes were also curtailed by the Easter break. Still, the slowdown suggests investors are growing exhausted after many stock markets have struck a series of record highs, with some more speculative accounts seeking returns in other markets such as real estate and commodities.

Volatility in equities markets has also cooled and remains subdued compared with the often huge swings in the crypto market. The Vix index, which measures expected volatility on the blue-chip S&P 500 index, dropped below its long-term average of 20 last month, pointing to a period of market calm. Some large funds are betting on that stability holding at least for the coming weeks.

Corporate and sovereign bond market trading levels also slowed. Average daily volume on Tradeweb, the bond and swap trading venue, fell to just under $900bn a day compared to just over $1tn a day in March, when investors’ concerns on inflation and the timing of US interest rate increases led to market volatility.

Rich Repetto, an analyst at Piper Sandler in New York, pointed out that, in spite of the drop, US cash equities volumes remained above pre-pandemic levels. Average daily volumes in US equity options fell 14 per cent in April but remained above 2020’s record average daily volume of nearly 30m contracts a day.

John Canavan, an analyst at Oxford Economics, said government bonds and equity markets had struggled for direction over the past month as trading activity had slowed, but he did not expect the ranges to hold for much longer.

“Friday’s April [US] employment report will likely provide a spark that could generate some new life and direction in the markets,” he said.“

[C-gull]

Something I have been mulling, and perhaps this is more short term trading than this thread in which case I'll gladly drop it and move it somehwere more appropriate, but here goes;

Given that we are trying to position ourselves to own companies that are benefiting from government spending, perhaps there's money to be made in looking at the contracts the government announces, and trying to front run the news and make money off a bounce.

https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Search/Results

This link is where the government publishes its contracts by value, you can search and filter by subject etc. As an example with all the testing stuff kicking around over the last year (and looking to continue for the short term at least), keeping an eye on keywords like "lateral flow" etc could give a decent indication that a particular company is about to be paid handsomly. As an example, Illumina ILMN recently were awarded a contract for some testing related activity and had a massive (short term) bounce. Now, I haven't made any money on this this is just something I've been considering. Could be worth a punt with some beer money at the very least.

I'd really welcome some thoughts; tell me I'm a moron if that's what I'm being, etc