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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


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DurhamBorn
10 minutes ago, Loki said:

What's going on with potash at the moment, anyone know? Just curious...

Getting spread on a load of soya bean fields Loki hopefully xD.Iv sold a lot of my potash shares now Mosaic had trebled.Iv still got a lot of Nutrien though and only sold 10% of them.

I actually expected potash to run after oil,yet Mosaic delivered 200% profits,BP 20% up to now.Shows how we can be right yet wrong sometimes and why however much conviction its crucial to keep a diverse range of areas.

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Loki
1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Getting spread on a load of soya bean fields Loki hopefully xD.Iv sold a lot of my potash shares now Mosaic had trebled.Iv still got a lot of Nutrien though and only sold 10% of them.

I actually expected potash to run after oil,yet Mosaic delivered 200% profits,BP 20% up to now.Shows how we can be right yet wrong sometimes and why however much conviction its crucial to keep a diverse range of areas.

I had some big gains on K+S and Intrepid, they have fallen back and I didn't top slice as I tend not to faff.

I assume potash is still a hold over the cycle(?) as this thread isn't about 'one time only' shares.  

If not I'll just sell them with the profits I have.

(I will take your answer as information only and not advice or guidance)

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Hancock
2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

 

First miner has broken ranks, for those who hold Endeavor they are keeping hold of 0.5M oz of AG as a bet prices are going to go higher.  Another nail in the coffin of the Comex.

Cheers got best part of 4 grands worth in them, will let them run until i think i can see the blinding lights of the BK coming.

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Loki
6 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/product-shortages-set-to-get-worse

The Construction Leadership Council has issued a warning to the industry that shortages of building products and materials are set to get worse before they get better.

Nothing we don't already know.  But it popped into my news list.   

I am told 'Uni Strut' is up by 20% (Informal site convo, not a precise figure)

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DurhamBorn
47 minutes ago, Loki said:

I had some big gains on K+S and Intrepid, they have fallen back and I didn't top slice as I tend not to faff.

I assume potash is still a hold over the cycle(?) as this thread isn't about 'one time only' shares.  

If not I'll just sell them with the profits I have.

(I will take your answer as information only and not advice or guidance)

Yes they should do fine,great sector.I had a very big holding in Mosaic and i tagged the bottom on them so i decided to re-invest those profits.I might add a few more K+S though its just im been concentrating on Brazil telcos at the moment.

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invalid
1 minute ago, Loki said:

I am told 'Uni Strut' is up by 20% (Informal site convo, not a precise figure)

Was chatting with a local car mechanic the other day. He said certain spare parts were getting hard to get hold of as the warehouses were not restocking less common parts (I presume due to manufacturers reducing lines). He also said costs were going up which he is passing on to customers. He also buys and sells some classic cars, he said this has gone crazy as loads of people have spare cash burning a hole in their pockets.

I can see a boom over the summer, lots of people have spare cash, lockdown ends and the sun will be shining.

Come the winter, higher prices, the cash has run out, the sun has stopped shining. That will be the bust, but will it be the BK?

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Loki
1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes they should do fine,great sector.I had a very big holding in Mosaic and i tagged the bottom on them so i decided to re-invest those profits.I might add a few more K+S though its just im been concentrating on Brazil telcos at the moment.

Thanks mate, I'm way out of my depth with stuff like Brazilian telcos so it's good to know inflation should still be fine for potash, I thought it would be but then I'm not the genius with the massive cork board :D

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Loki
1 minute ago, invalid said:

Was chatting with a local car mechanic the other day. He said certain spare parts were getting hard to get hold of as the warehouses were not restocking less common parts (I presume due to manufacturers reducing lines). He also said costs were going up which he is passing on to customers. He also buys and sells some classic cars, he said this has gone crazy as loads of people have spare cash burning a hole in their pockets.

I can see a boom over the summer, lots of people have spare cash, lockdown ends and the sun will be shining.

Come the winter, higher prices, the cash has run out, the sun has stopped shining. That will be the bust, but will it be the BK?

Yes I can understand collectable and classics going up.  I thought I heard somewhere what the whole used car market was doing well but that's harder to understand with the electric push.   Unless it's because people are putting off buying a brand new petrol or diesel I guess.

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AWW
1 minute ago, Loki said:

Yes I can understand collectable and classics going up.  I thought I heard somewhere what the whole used car market was doing well but that's harder to understand with the electric push.   Unless it's because people are putting off buying a brand new petrol or diesel I guess.

I'm expecting to do more driving this year, particularly loaded up with kit, due to no foreign holidays and catching up with people we've not seen for a year. Been looking to replace our Golf estate with something a bit bigger. Caravelles and the like have gone up about 30% compared to last year, so we've been looking at something like a Sharan/Alhambra. The non-ULEZ compliant ones have taken a beating on price here in the smoke.

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feed
3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes I can understand collectable and classics going up.  I thought I heard somewhere what the whole used car market was doing well but that's harder to understand with the electric push.   Unless it's because people are putting off buying a brand new petrol or diesel I guess.

Supply side issue on new vehicles due to the chip shortage

I was in an audio this afternoon with the us team, the preamble before the meeting, one of the guys was saying that the dealership near to him had no F150s on the forecourt or lot.

That's a main dealership, in MI near to Ford world headquarters.  It's more or less unthinkable.  

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Loki
3 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm expecting to do more driving this year, particularly loaded up with kit, due to no foreign holidays and catching up with people we've not seen for a year. Been looking to replace our Golf estate with something a bit bigger. Caravelles and the like have gone up about 30% compared to last year, so we've been looking at something like a Sharan/Alhambra. The non-ULEZ compliant ones have taken a beating on price here in the smoke.

Interesting, I suppose caravelles have that whole 'scene' thing.  Yeah  I know some blokes got stung by ULEZ after buying Transporters. 

2 minutes ago, feed said:

Supply side issue on new vehicles due to the chip shortage

I was in an audio this afternoon with the us team, the preamble before the meeting, one of the guys was saying that the dealership near to him had no F150s on the forecourt or lot.

That's a main dealership, in MI near to Ford world headquarters.  It's more or less unthinkable.  

Of course, I totally over-looked that xD

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Cosmic Apple
18 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes I can understand collectable and classics going up.  I thought I heard somewhere what the whole used car market was doing well but that's harder to understand with the electric push.   Unless it's because people are putting off buying a brand new petrol or diesel I guess.

A couple of years ago I was looking at 2015 Leons etc. and can recall the prices were around what they are now, for cars that are now 2 years older with more miles.

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Loki
2 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

A couple of years ago I was looking at 2015 Leons etc. and can recall the prices were around what they are now, for cars that are now 2 years older with more miles.

Part of the reason I went for a big petrol truck I want to keep for years.  Inflation proofing myself in the most fun way I can think of, and if I'm going to get stung on some emissions thing if I dare drive a used diesel van that's outside the age range anyway, I might as well get something I want and just see if petrol engines fall foul at some point.  Most are still fine I think, unlike diesels.

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Innkeeper
17 minutes ago, feed said:

Supply side issue on new vehicles due to the chip shortage

I was in an audio this afternoon with the us team, the preamble before the meeting, one of the guys was saying that the dealership near to him had no F150s on the forecourt or lot.

That's a main dealership, in MI near to Ford world headquarters.  It's more or less unthinkable.  

If you need a new car there’s at least 10,000 in Avonmouth Docks parked up next to the M5.  I’m sure most of them haven’t moved for months....

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Knickerless Turgid
30 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes I can understand collectable and classics going up.  I thought I heard somewhere what the whole used car market was doing well but that's harder to understand with the electric push.   Unless it's because people are putting off buying a brand new petrol or diesel I guess.

I recently got shot of a fairly unusual, but by no means classic or collectible, used car. I accepted a price with which I was happy; the dealer is now advertising it for quite a chunk more than I paid for it four years ago.

Used motorbike prices are even more mental, such that it frequently now makes sense to buy new (assuming you don't want a wanky Ewen BMW special, which can top 20 grand).

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Castlevania
32 minutes ago, feed said:

Supply side issue on new vehicles due to the chip shortage

I was in an audio this afternoon with the us team, the preamble before the meeting, one of the guys was saying that the dealership near to him had no F150s on the forecourt or lot.

That's a main dealership, in MI near to Ford world headquarters.  It's more or less unthinkable.  

On another forum I frequent there’s a chap who lives in America who sells second hand cars. He sold a second hand pick up the other day for $5000 above the new list price and the buyer thought he’d got a good deal.

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Knickerless Turgid
16 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

On another forum I frequent there’s a chap who lives in America who sells second hand cars. He sold a second hand pick up the other day for $5000 above the new list price and the buyer thought he’d got a good deal.

This is real. Empty shelves across supermarket chains and DIY stores, doubtless elsewhere when general retail re-opens. Majestic Wine is out of many ranges, due to a major wine importer going down, I am told due to shipping costs.

Get used to fewer choices at higher prices, people (no bad thing, in my view). The consumer has no idea how good he/she/they have had it over the last 25+ years, at least in terms of the availability of tat. An entire generation (in fact, two generations) are about to discover the true cost of "stuff".

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Loki
20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

On another forum I frequent there’s a chap who lives in America who sells second hand cars. He sold a second hand pick up the other day for $5000 above the new list price and the buyer thought he’d got a good deal.

Availability issues or oblivious buyer?

28 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I recently got shot of a fairly unusual, but by no means classic or collectible, used car. I accepted a price with which I was happy; the dealer is now advertising it for quite a chunk more than I paid for it four years ago.

Used motorbike prices are even more mental, such that it frequently now makes sense to buy new (assuming you don't want a wanky Ewen BMW special, which can top 20 grand).

Yes those BMW's are an addiction, I know people with them.

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reformed nice guy
6 hours ago, RWJ said:

Inflation.

I'm having a new fence put up. Cost of materials(wood) only, no labour :-

Pre April 1st price -  £430

Price now - £600

>25%

Holy fuck.

Neighbour is looking for a plastic cover for his ground level balcony. Nothing major.

Was quoted £600 last year, same guy wants £1200 now. Phoned around and cheapest offer to do it was £900 - in July

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invalid
2 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

This is real. Empty shelves across supermarket chains and DIY stores, doubtless elsewhere when general retail re-opens. Majestic Wine is out of many ranges, due to a major wine importer going down, I am told due to shipping costs.

Get used to fewer choices at higher prices, people (no bad thing, in my view). The consumer has no idea how good he/she/they have had it over the last 25+ years, at least in terms of the availability of tat. An entire generation (in fact, two generations) are about to discover the true cost of "stuff".

 

There is no doubt that there are shortages and price inflation. We are all seeing it with our own eyes. 

Is this going to be a short term thing (12 months) or here to stay (many years)? I can see the shortages being resolved but think the inflation will linger on for longer.

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Knickerless Turgid
2 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

There is no doubt that there are shortages and price inflation. We are all seeing it with our own eyes. 

Is this going to be a short term thing (12 months) or here to stay (many years)? I can see the shortages being resolved but think the inflation will linger on for longer.

I think we will have to get used to a combination of higher prices (inflation) and fewer choices (failure of globalisation). Again, no bad thing, in my book.

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, Loki said:

Interesting, I suppose caravelles have that whole 'scene' thing.  Yeah  I know some blokes got stung by ULEZ after buying Transporters.

I have a neighbour here in London that bought an air cooled  VW camper van. He doesn't use it, it costs him £100 a day in fees if he drives it anywhere within the M25.

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