Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’ll be keeping an eye the markets today

#metoo........I was having a funny dream, can't quite remember what it was.....it'll come to me shortly

[nirvana]

I might panic sell when the markets open.....then buy em back this afternoon when the FOMO kicks in, bit like this

 

[Lightscribe]

On 07/05/2021 at 15:46, nirvana said:

spoos is off to the races.......weren't you the loony calling the top the other day? 

I could only imagine what goes through your head as you dream... 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/11/asia-pacific-markets-stock-moves-currencies-china-inflation-data.html
 

Could it be signalling the start on my loony call?...

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

macro and value/growth investing is kinda dead, or at least very suboptimal. Is he just talking his book? Or does he have a point? I am definitely not suggesting to sell our deflation stocks and copy what he's doing

this......I think the market is so high on the FEDs coke injections, you're best off moving to daytrading 

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Could it be signalling the start on my loony call?...

yeah see above

[nirvana]

apparently this guy is real....one of the Bogdanoff twins, raised by a countess in a castle in the South of France....

quelle bizarro world eh

 

[nirvana]

So let me get this right, this latest 'market crisis' is caused by a global semiconductor shortage and an 'unexpected rise' in inflation?

Let's all congratulate the FED again......the FED giveth, the FED taketh away 

[Lightscribe]

24 minutes ago, nirvana said:

So let me get this right, this latest 'market crisis' is caused by a global semiconductor shortage and an 'unexpected rise' in inflation?

Let's all congratulate the FED again......the FED giveth, the FED taketh away 

We all know the media comes up with headlines to provide a narrative to fit when they can’t understand why somethings actually happening.

Whats slightly more concerning is this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-09/u-s-fuel-sellers-scramble-for-alternatives-to-hacked-pipeline

[Loki]

53 minutes ago, nirvana said:

apparently this guy is real....one of the Bogdanoff twins, raised by a countess in a castle in the South of France....

quelle bizarro world eh

 

Bogged meme is one of my faves

 

[Lightscribe]

22 minutes ago, Loki said:

Bogged meme is one of my faves

 

 

[nirvana]

yeah I saw that one last week....

Germans are having a party with DAXY! Sell the RIP buy the DIP but you need to be quick! 

[nirvana]

39 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Whats slightly more concerning is this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-09/u-s-fuel-sellers-scramble-for-alternatives-to-hacked-pipeline

the news is an interesting thing.....for sure TPTB and the MMs etc manipulate it to their own advantage BUT don't read too much into it....FOLLOW PRICE!

Is WTI giving a crap about this latest hack? Not at the moment no.....

Cable is holding up well too....they bought the dip......so Bogdanoff can feck off so far today 

[nirvana]

tried buying the dip again and bogdanoff spotted me  I didn't realise those rsoles were French...apparently they have a really high IQ and learnt to speak fluent French in a week (I think were brought up speaking Russian or Alien or serbo-croat)

translation:

my country friends, if you don't move the wasps they won't bite you

Me 5 mins later

 

[Green Devil]

54 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yeah I saw that one last week....

Germans are having a party with DAXY! Sell the RIP buy the DIP but you need to be quick! 

Crypto holding up well comsidering the stock markets are in meltdown.... 

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Crypto holding up well comsidering the stock markets are in meltdown.... 

A flight to safety?

[Talking Monkey]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Please note this is NOT just another BTC content video, I know there has been quite a lot of discussions lately... instead Raoul presents here his thesis that macro and value/growth investing is kinda dead, or at least very suboptimal. Is he just talking his book? Or does he have a point? I am definitely not suggesting to sell our deflation stocks and copy what he's doing, but Raoul does introduce some interesting ideas in the video. (Eg He mentions the Elon Musk Starling satellite project, what are people's thoughts on the negative affects it may have on telecoms sector? I'm concerned as I own a lot of the telecoms).                                                                       Raoul is now fully embedded in crypto, heck he thinks now even BTC was probably created as a US/UK psyops! ...but actually I'm being uncharitable, this video is apparently his first attempt at introducing his next cycle thesis which he has been developing. Very broadly, he thinks coming cycle will be deflation (inflation I think he says is impossible), driven by technology/productivity, with crypto initially acting as a massive disruptor to finance sector, then other sectors, and ultimately becoming backbone of economy. I await a more detailed exploration of his thesis as this one is a bit basic but is still worth watching.                                                               

                                                                                                                              

I can't help but think he's talking his book. Or at least very heavily biased due to going as he says all in on bitcoin. To even it out he seems a decent bloke. 

[Noallegiance]

Lol

Victims of their own government's policy.

IRS struggles to fill jobs, deal with backlog through difficult tax season | Accounting Today

[Lightscribe]

26 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Crypto holding up well comsidering the stock markets are in meltdown.... 

Waiting until 2:30pm when the US opens 

[Green Devil]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just remember what Stan Druckenmiller did an hour before the peak of the dotcom bubble, after previously getting out of it 2 months before:

 

Personally I think there iare at least a few more months, and that Fed signals will tell us what to do, but my point is that you will not time this jumping in and out. If FOMO can kill one of the greatest traders and investors of all time, with respect, it will kill you. If you decide to get out, stay out IMO. Turn off the computer and do some gardening. I like your cautious voice on this thread, I wish you luck.

And the moral is keep plenty of cash. Never go all in. Except one week after an epic crash. Its worked every time so far. 😂 Might get another this week? 

[DurhamBorn]

Iv heard about the death of "value" investing many many times in my life,nearly always at the end of some kind of bubble in other assets.Value depends on inflation,because the value of their already built assets increase in price.

There arent many areas that can outrun inflation because it eats away spending power.Amazon for instance can increase prices as its input costs rise,but consumers have less money anyway so its margins are squeezed.

Dollar should break below 90 soon against consensus, 86 area could see the bottom,but there is room for 83 or even down to tag 80.

 

[Talking Monkey]

17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just remember what Stan Druckenmiller did an hour before the peak of the dotcom bubble, after previously getting out of it 2 months before:

 

Personally I think there iare at least a few more months, and that Fed signals will tell us what to do, but my point is that you will not time this jumping in and out. If FOMO can kill one of the greatest traders and investors of all time, with respect, it will kill you. If you decide to get out, stay out IMO. Turn off the computer and do some gardening. I like your cautious voice on this thread, I wish you luck.

Edit:

Obviously the above was trying to ride a bubble, and buying miners isn't. I just wanted to put this anecdote on FOMO on the thread as it's going to happen, alot.

That anecdote I came across years ago and is seared into my memory it helps me keep perspective when fomo is strong. 

[Noallegiance]

21 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Personally I think there iare at least a few more months, and that Fed signals will tell us what to do, but my point is that you will not time this jumping in and out. If FOMO can kill one of the greatest traders and investors of all time, with respect, it will kill you. If you decide to get out, stay out IMO. Turn off the computer and do some gardening.

Yes I'm thinking the time is approaching to sell and go away. My portfolio is up around 35% since October (when I finally got all pensions in my SIPP). Whilst I have 26+ years until official retirement and time to recover, personally I will congratulate myself for taking the majority of my portfolio to cash, leave a little in to capture the last gains, and wait.

Far less stressful to watch missed gains in an insane environment than watch losses mount. The point of moving to a SIPP for me was control. To give control over to a crazy melt-up negates the point of it.

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just remember what Stan Druckenmiller did an hour before the peak of the dotcom bubble, after previously getting out of it 2 months before:

 

Personally I think there iare at least a few more months, and that Fed signals will tell us what to do, but my point is that you will not time this jumping in and out. If FOMO can kill one of the greatest traders and investors of all time, with respect, it will kill you. If you decide to get out, stay out IMO. Turn off the computer and do some gardening. I like your cautious voice on this thread, I wish you luck.

I am still holding a decent amount of cash and I am looking to get out before Mr Hunter's targets are met,I don't envisage holding many if any Stocks by September.

Thank you, I appreciate your comments and hopefully my faith in Mr Hunter isn't misplaced but that would be my fault not Mr Hunters.

[Mapper]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Please note this is NOT just another BTC content video, I know there has been quite a lot of discussions lately... instead Raoul presents here his thesis that macro and value/growth investing is kinda dead, or at least very suboptimal. Is he just talking his book? Or does he have a point? I am definitely not suggesting to sell our deflation stocks and copy what he's doing, but Raoul does introduce some interesting ideas in the video. (Eg He mentions the Elon Musk Starling satellite project, what are people's thoughts on the negative affects it may have on telecoms sector? I'm concerned as I own a lot of the telecoms).                                                                       Raoul is now fully embedded in crypto, heck he thinks now even BTC was probably created as a US/UK psyops! ...but actually I'm being uncharitable, this video is apparently his first attempt at introducing his next cycle thesis which he has been developing. Very broadly, he thinks coming cycle will be deflation (inflation I think he says is impossible), driven by technology/productivity, with crypto initially acting as a massive disruptor to finance sector, then other sectors, and ultimately becoming backbone of economy. I await a more detailed exploration of his thesis as this one is a bit basic but is still worth watching.                                                               

                                                                                                                              

I know he's a smart cookie, but there is something I find unsettling about him.

He looks like the kind of guy who would try to get you to go to a swingers party. Or failing that, try to sell you Amway products.

(Disclosure: Not watched the video)

[Lightscribe]

38 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Yes I'm thinking the time is approaching to sell and go away. My portfolio is up around 35% since October (when I finally got all pensions in my SIPP). Whilst I have 26+ years until official retirement and time to recover, personally I will congratulate myself for taking the majority of my portfolio to cash, leave a little in to capture the last gains, and wait.

Far less stressful to watch missed gains in an insane environment than watch losses mount. The point of moving to a SIPP for me was control. To give control over to a crazy melt-up negates the point of it.

My pension is all in cash like it was in March 2020 (and that worked out well for me - but that has limited funds)

I’m leaving my inflation stocks in the ISA however (I already took profit and re-bought lower in the run upwards). My portfolio today has hardly moved, I really think with the weight of inflation oil/energy/PMs will be going against the current of money that will be eventually exiting out of tech and the FANNGs. I don’t think we’re going to see much of a backwards retrace because of the inflation already built up in the pipeline.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

YOU lot need to PULL ya socks UP!

 

UNCLE Dave posts a tweet/video about the ONgoing MELT-UP last week, ...AND what always...ALWAYS happens just after???

 

The market DIVES!

 

This is a classic SHAKE-OUT!

 

WHEN the MEGA-CRASH arrives you'll know....as i'll be posting my... "stiff upper lip" CARRY-ON clip!

 

@nirvana BUY the f****** DIP!

 

THEN go and spend the rest of the week with that frogfox on the pushbike you sometimes post!

 

BTW, WARNING: DYOR!!!