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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Only one line, to keep @nirvana happy. Those 2015 $100 barrels would now cost you $118. Oil is a black hole for dollar liquidity which we then burn, and come back for more

I'm always happy bro! :D nice chart, interesting breakout but it's up against it a bit at 66 at the mo.......

Disclaimer: I wanna see a crash so I can buy lower again so my judgement might be slightly cloudy at the mo xD

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leonardratso

well i certainly have no use for fizzy sugary drinks or rugby guys thats for sure, ill be spending my money on drugs and prostitutes instead.

All £8.76 of it.

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1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

well i certainly have no use for fizzy sugary drinks or rugby guys thats for sure, ill be spending my money on drugs and prostitutes instead.

All £8.76 of it.

At least you're not squandering it on fripperies.

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Can someone explain to me in terms a retard can understand, why inflation fears have DXY higher and stocks lower?  It makes no sense to me.  Is it just a back-rationalisation of the event?

 

Dollar inflating
Sell stocks
Move into dollar
??????
PROFIT

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1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Probably a sell the news jobby, and markets trying to take money off the most people. this CPI print was well telegraphed, lots of people being shaken out right now I think. If it didn't happen like this, the majority would get rich, which isn't possible with (relatively) limited liquidity. Only the minority can, and it's hard to do.

Thanks mate

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9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

lots of people being shaken out right now

yeah that's me.....but you gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em :D

I can always come back tomorrow O.o

actually joking apart, there is always another bus! it don't matter if you miss a few.....bro........mind you I prefer to get on my bike so I will xD

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

well i certainly have no use for fizzy sugary drinks or rugby guys thats for sure, ill be spending my money on drugs and prostitutes instead.

All £8.76 of it.

BAG has been one of my best buys...regular divis and consistently +30% up...amazing what IRNBRU can do! :-)))

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1 hour ago, Loki said:

Can someone explain to me in terms a retard can understand, why inflation fears have DXY higher and stocks lower?  It makes no sense to me.  Is it just a back-rationalisation of the event?

 

Dollar inflating
Sell stocks
Move into dollar
??????
PROFIT

Inflation increases so interest rates are increased to control it. Increase interest rates = more expensive borrowing so current liabilities more expensive to service AND any future borrowing is proportionally reduce = reduced growth. These then increase 'fear' in the market so people go to a 'port of safety' [US$]......not sure if this is right but I am sure one of our in-house economists will be along in a moment to confirm if I am talking rubbish or not [as the case may be] :-)

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7 hours ago, nirvana said:

They are rapidly building a digital electronic prison for us all. The time is running out to stop it. You either understand this or you don't. If you're still arguing inside the red v blue political charade then you clearly don't understand the actual threat AND problem.

Nice!

To me, that's it, right there. If only I could get family and friends to take it in.

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DurhamBorn
4 hours ago, Loki said:

Can someone explain to me in terms a retard can understand, why inflation fears have DXY higher and stocks lower?  It makes no sense to me.  Is it just a back-rationalisation of the event?

 

Dollar inflating
Sell stocks
Move into dollar
??????
PROFIT

Everyone but a contrarian macro strategist thinks higher than expected inflation print means interest rates will go up.That would mean more demand for dollar deposits so the dollar goes up.Most bubble or as younger people call them growth companies have their future earnings discounted against higher rates,so they fall.

A macro strategists job is to know about this inflation print today two years ago a bit foggy,1 year ago into the probably and 6 months ago,almost certain within a range.While the MSM and most people think the above,my roadmap is already marked out for today,though i expected around a 3.7% print from calculations i made 12 months ago.Now i simply adjust for the actual print.My roadmap tells me real rates are getting more negative and the buying power destruction is picking up,not falling back,so the dollar will soon reverse and go to where its going,85ish,82 outlier.

 

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Peter Schiff is like a stopped fecking clock.....bit ironic him calling Musky a bell end.....Musk plays a good game, he's like Trump :Jumping: 

Disclaimer: I don't want a Tesla I think they're bollocks but he raises awareness on other things.....everyone should have their own Powerwall :D

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4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:


LOL :D

Cats out of the bag now.  Save the planet and BTC not compatible :/

BTC flash crashed to $47k overnight and now down 10% over 24 hours along with most of the main cryptos.  My newly opened Coinbase account will remain empty for now :D

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Don't you find it interesting that markets were on their way down and then boom, Musk adds fire to the dump?

Strange how it's all interconnected eh? you might even think all the 'big boys' talk to each other about this stuff in advance xD

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Green Devil
7 minutes ago, Innkeeper said:

Cats out of the bag now.  Save the planet and BTC not compatible :/

BTC flash crashed to $47k overnight and now down 10% over 24 hours along with most of the main cryptos.  My newly opened Coinbase account will remain empty for now :D

Surely you buy new shirts when theres a sale on at debenhams. I do. Why not apply the same model to cryptos or other investments? 

Btc on sale😂😂 

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everyone but a contrarian macro strategist thinks higher than expected inflation print means interest rates will go up.That would mean more demand for dollar deposits so the dollar goes up.Most bubble or as younger people call them growth companies have their future earnings discounted against higher rates,so they fall.

There you go @loki, i thought I was an oddball contrarian yet it appears I am `normal` like the rest of them. It also appears that I am young as well....I don't know whether to feel flattered of insulted, but I knew someone would be along in a short while to correct the rubbish I had just spouted! :-)

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everyone but a contrarian macro strategist thinks higher than expected inflation print means interest rates will go up.That would mean more demand for dollar deposits so the dollar goes up.Most bubble or as younger people call them growth companies have their future earnings discounted against higher rates,so they fall.

OK @DB what am I missing?

Inflation increases so they reduce/control spending by increasing interest rates.

Increased interest rates means borrowing is more expensive so companies cut back, thus reducing growth/turnover.

Increased interest rates means punters move into more secure bonds for same returns so equities drop.

The above means less consumption/productive economy so job losses/recession. This then creates a flight into secure US$ and so this increases.

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Green Devil
4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

OK @DB what am I missing?

Inflation increases so they reduce/control spending by increasing interest rates.

Increased interest rates means borrowing is more expensive so companies cut back, thus reducing growth/turnover.

Increased interest rates means punters move into more secure bonds for same returns so equities drop.

The above means less consumption/productive economy so job losses/recession. This then creates a flight into secure US$ and so this increases.

No. Headline rates stay the same. They are zero to infinity. Inflation is good as it taxes the poor. And the rich get richer (Assets). US debt cant be paid at any rate above zero.

The bond market will trade at a discount temporarily and offer better yields. Tech companies trade at a discount to interest rates. Hence the crash in tech, but not in general inflation assets. Flight to quality that's all. Risk off. Until the next announcement of another round of money printing, then we are back up again.

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UnconventionalWisdom
On 11/05/2021 at 09:58, Cattle Prod said:

If FOMO can kill one of the greatest traders and investors of all time, with respect, it will kill you

Newton, probably the greatest physicist ever, couldn't handle FOMO. You need to take emotion out of decisions and bugger off enjoying what you have.

515b40886bb3f7bd49000013.jpeg

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16 hours ago, nirvana said:

PS I'm going liquid, BK incoming :P

Good call nutter, DAX just completely shit the bed......wonder if the Big Short is just starting to get warmed up??? :Jumping:

edit: it rolled over and had a big crap on the other side of the bed too xD

Skynet is targeting last weeks low.........I'm reminded of that saying 'sell in may and go away' :S

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Bricormortis
8 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Newton, probably the greatest physicist ever, couldn't handle FOMO. You need to take emotion out of decisions and bugger off enjoying what you have.

515b40886bb3f7bd49000013.jpeg

Lke a bitcoin chart from the year 2023

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31 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Newton, probably the greatest physicist ever, couldn't handle FOMO. You need to take emotion out of decisions and bugger off enjoying what you have.

515b40886bb3f7bd49000013.jpeg

Finally proof that you need to invest with a stop loss :P

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