Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

This is the biggest up day for GDX & J since I bought.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Micheal 'the big short' Burry has taken a massive position against Tesla and more importantly for us is backing up his calls for massive inflation as Zerohedge says...

"But perhaps what is most remarkable, along with Burry's huge Tesla bearish bet, is his aggressive positioning for a surge in inflation (as a reminder, it was Burry back in February warned that Weimar hyperinflation is coming), which he is trading as follows:

• PUT on the TLT 20+ Year TSY bond ETF, equivalent to some 1.266MM shares or $171.5 million
• CALL on the TBT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 2.536MM shares or $55.1 million
• CALL on the TTT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 100K shares or $4.6 million
• CALL on the 3x levered TMV 20Y Treasury Bear ETF, equivalent to 38,400 shares or $3.1 million
• Outright long in the TBT 20Y Treasury Ultrashort ETF, amounting to 300,000 shares or $6.5 Million.

To summarize: Burry sees lots of downside in Tesla,  upside in Alphabet and Facebook, and is betting on a surge in Treasury yields."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-reveals-massive-tesla-short-huge-inflationary-bet

The thing here as well is the affect on ordinary peoples pensions.They are mostly in those 60/40 type funds,or when in drawdown 40/60,they will see big falls as yields rise on treasuries.I really dont think people see the danger at all.4% drawdown,2% fees and 4% loss a year before inflation is a disaster.Pensions will empty over less than 10 years.

Those still paying in of course its not as bad,but 20% to 40% haircuts over the cycle from here would be really hard and especially for those around 10 years from retirement.

I think the biggest danger though is for those retiring from 3 years ago to 5 years ahead.People simply dont understand the risk when yields rise on treasuries when it takes around 15 years for positions to unwind.

[Boon]

Interesting as I was thinking of adding some of those ETFs that Burry was on about.

Is there a guide to an optimal amount, for instance if you wanted to hedge £100k of equities?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Have to love Lynn Aldens sense of humour. 😂

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, planit said:

Other comment is the 3x bear ETF is a widowmaker but his position looks more like "I need a bit of fun, I will do something a bit crazy as I'm bored". 'Only' $3.1m, TSLA position $530m!

 

He has some serious kahunas.

I had about 10k in a bear ETF for a good number of years; lost money on it but it was insurance - at that time 100% of my earnings came from clients and businesses which only spent in a bull market; a bear would have meant very quickly zero income for me for months and months.

Maybe he is looking at it the same way?  A hedge?

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This is the biggest up day for GDX & J since I bought.

I've posted on here before that the range 50-60 is the one to watch for GDXJ.  Above 50 - interesting, shows fear.  Above 55 - mucho fear.  Above 60, that's only been touched once or twice before and shows something really interesting.

Of course, with fiat debasement those ranges will erode over time, but I still find it an easy 3 second lens.

[macca]

5 hours ago, MvR said:

It shouldn't do, and didn't last week ( or even last night ). It normally seems to follow the Comex futures in terms of price and trading hours, as their gold contract does.  I regularly trade it in the evenings.

It's not like the market's particularly volatile, and the margin requirement hasn't changed, so I'm wondering if it's just a technical issue, or they've messed up their own hedging and position, or maybe there's something stranger going on..

Basel 3 will end silver gold trading on the Comex.. That's what i read.. Then the fun begins.

[nirvana]

10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Their silver contract operates off London hours

IGs MT4 is always open for Silver n Gold during the week....

 

 

[Lightscribe]

10 hours ago, MvR said:

It shouldn't do, and didn't last week ( or even last night ). It normally seems to follow the Comex futures in terms of price and trading hours, as their gold contract does.  I regularly trade it in the evenings.

It's not like the market's particularly volatile, and the margin requirement hasn't changed, so I'm wondering if it's just a technical issue, or they've messed up their own hedging and position, or maybe there's something stranger going on..

It’s happening! Physical breaking from paper....(well maybe one day soon)

sorry couldn’t resist, I spend far to much time on the internet these days

[Loki]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dollar index getting really close to breaking below 90 now hopefully it can get through soon and head to 87

Looks like Durhamborn made a few calls and threatened to put some heads in pizza ovens

 

[Loki]

My SIPP punt into BTU has gone mental. My first double bagger i think

[planit]

Any VOD holders here got any comments, was a revenue decline expected and is this temporary?

I have been watching for a while and thought this might be a good entry point .

Dropped from 142 to 132.

 

[CVG]

I'm within 6.5% of my target (FTSE100=7700 or Portfolio=£X) prior to top-slicing ahead of the BK, so we can probably expect the BK in the next 5% increase.

Anyone else got a BK target?

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm within 6.5% of my target (FTSE100=7700 or Portfolio=£X) prior to top-slicing ahead of the BK, so we can probably expect the BK in the next 5% increase.

Anyone else got a BK target?

nope, only a slice for me when GDXJ hits 75 - i'll be taking 20% off the table for oilies, telecoms, and miners.

[Bricormortis]

Silver at the moment is through resistance level of  $28.42, next hurdles $ 30 and $ 30.35, then it could be off to the races.

Does it get smacked down by bullion banks first, dunno.

[planit]

6 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm within 6.5% of my target (FTSE100=7700 or Portfolio=£X) prior to top-slicing ahead of the BK, so we can probably expect the BK in the next 5% increase.

Anyone else got a BK target?

No, I think that would be dangerous for me. I 100% rely on advice from DOSBODS.

There is 100% chance that after it happens someone will post on here how they knew it was going to happen. Then I just need to go back in time to sell everything.

Then sit back and watch it happen with some beer 

 

Easy!

[Donald McFlurry]

6 minutes ago, planit said:

Any VOD holders here got any comments, was a revenue decline expected and is this temporary?

I have been watching for a while and thought this might be a good entry point .

Dropped from 142 to 132.

 

Doesn't seem like they were way out of guidance. I may add more today with this drop.

[Castlevania]

12 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Silver at the moment is through resistance level of  $28.42, next hurdles $ 30 and $ 30.35, then it could be off to the races.

Does it get smacked down by bullion banks first, dunno.

It’s Tuesday. We all know what happens on a Tuesday.

 

[nirvana]

in other news Dick Cheney has a new tie 

Liz Cheney: Biden Military Budget 'Too Low' Despite Being Highest Of All Time

 

[CVG]

18 minutes ago, Donald McFlurry said:

Doesn't seem like they were way out of guidance. I may add more today with this drop.

"LONDON (Reuters) -Mobile operator Vodafone (LON:VOD) reported a 1.2% drop in full-year adjusted earnings, coming in at the bottom of its guidance and missing market expectations, after COVID-19 hit roaming revenue and handset sales.

The company posted adjusted EBITDA (earnings before tax, interest, depreciation and amortisation) of 14.4 billion euros on revenue of 43.8 billion euros, down 2.6%."

[Harley]

14 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Micheal 'the big short' Burry has taken a massive position against Tesla and more importantly for us is backing up his calls for massive inflation as Zerohedge says...

"But perhaps what is most remarkable, along with Burry's huge Tesla bearish bet, is his aggressive positioning for a surge in inflation (as a reminder, it was Burry back in February warned that Weimar hyperinflation is coming), which he is trading as follows:

• PUT on the TLT 20+ Year TSY bond ETF, equivalent to some 1.266MM shares or $171.5 million
• CALL on the TBT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 2.536MM shares or $55.1 million
• CALL on the TTT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 100K shares or $4.6 million
• CALL on the 3x levered TMV 20Y Treasury Bear ETF, equivalent to 38,400 shares or $3.1 million
• Outright long in the TBT 20Y Treasury Ultrashort ETF, amounting to 300,000 shares or $6.5 Million.

To summarize: Burry sees lots of downside in Tesla,  upside in Alphabet and Facebook, and is betting on a surge in Treasury yields."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-reveals-massive-tesla-short-huge-inflationary-bet

Really?  Has he not hedged the risk he's wrong as well?  And those ultrashorts (why would he use an ETF, that's more for the likes of me) implies he expects the mother of all declines and/or it to happen very soon.  Just sounds odd, maybe not the full picture?

[Harley]

On 17/05/2021 at 09:09, Craig said:

Got my PAXG in a Nexo account, currently earning 8%.

Duh, I looked it up and was scratching my head - how does an AsiaPac ETF help?

[Castlevania]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Really?  Has he not hedged the risk he's wrong as well?  And those ultrashorts (why would he use an ETF, that's more for the likes of me) implies he expects the mother of all declines and/or it to happen very soon.  Just sounds odd, maybe not the full picture?

He’s buying options, probably to hedge the long equity portfolio he manages.

[Harley]

23 hours ago, christh said:

Hi DB, you buying Yamana on the Toronto exchange? I see there's AUY.L on a CDI in London but seems super thinly traded. Cheers.

US too?  I tend to buy the Canadians on the US markets as they have higher volumes.  Also because all of the dividend on US stocks is free of WHT in a SIPP.  Is this the same for Canadian stocks?  Regardless, not sure yet if this works for the listed Canadian stocks or just the US stocks as WHT depends on the domicile of the company.  Anyone know?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

Really?  Has he not hedged the risk he's wrong as well?  And those ultrashorts (why would he use an ETF, that's more for the likes of me) implies he expects the mother of all declines and/or it to happen very soon.  Just sounds odd, maybe not the full picture?

It won't be the full picture, just highlights. I suspect he is very good at managing risk. Also that he is prepared to double down over time. Not sure why he would use ETFs. Perhaps they're the most liquid option?