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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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9 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm not being at all rude here, but if you're worried about a 2-3% daily loss on your equity portfolio, how on earth do you sleep at night?

This is just noise and the amount of worried people, even on here, tells me that there's a lot more upside than downside in the type of stocks espoused on here.

Not worried, spectating.  Bought more VOD yesterday :D

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Ma2 said:

I used to think this too but then realised they work on different timeframes to us in planning terms. Maybe they have built when commodity prices and labour are cheaper, something they know the population will definitely need at some point in the future when commodity prices and labour will be more expensive.

I have seen videos of the quality of those ghost towns though and I don't envy anyone being moved there!

 

The portents aren't good given that they'd have been better off spending their money addressing their 11mn bpd oil deficit.

China has achieved a lot as the 99% have suffered for the greater good.But at some point the greater good will want paying and I'm not sure the Chinses govt can.

 

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2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

China has achieved a lot as the 99% have suffered for the greater good.But at some point the greater good will want paying and I'm not sure the Chinses govt can.

Yes, that's what the social credit score and gulags are for, CCP know they can't keep the wheels on forever.

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31 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

You trade off way too short a time frame for me

price is no different on a 1min chart to a 1 year chart.....time is irrelevant to price B|

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SpectrumFX
31 minutes ago, nirvana said:

price is no different on a 1min chart to a 1 year chart.....time is irrelevant to price B|

You get a lot more reaction time on the 1 year chart though.

xD

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28 minutes ago, nirvana said:

price is no different on a 1min chart to a 1 year chart.....time is irrelevant to price B|

Yes but you are sped up 5 times faster, completely manic, I love your posts they always bring a smile to my face. 

 

I also have a picture in my head where DB ignores all market noise and has his plan.

At the other end is you trading the 1 minute noise and the rest of us are in between

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35 minutes ago, nirvana said:

price is no different on a 1min chart to a 1 year chart.....time is irrelevant to price B|

1 min OCD speculator :D

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6 hours ago, Ma2 said:

I used to think this too but then realised they work on different timeframes to us in planning terms. Maybe they have built when commodity prices and labour are cheaper, something they know the population will definitely need at some point in the future when commodity prices and labour will be more expensive.

I have seen videos of the quality of those ghost towns though and I don't envy anyone being moved there!

The Chinese want to buy new builds.

The CCP will struggle to get anyone to buy those ghost town apartments.

Buy freely, that is.

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Lightscribe

So Nikkei relativity flat today as well as the rest of the market futures.

If the markets remain in limbo it will be the true test of BTC today. It has been acting odd all week as I’ve previously stated. Manipulated odd. But with big big money manipulated odd.

The rebound attempts have been cut off on the 25 day MA as seen on the 1 hour chart below. These are not typical movements in BTC after a big drop.

If it drops hard again today with no stock market sell off pressure, my suspicions will be confirmed.

Either old ‘Reset Klaus’ is pushing the ‘you will own nothing’ button to pave the way for nice, safe government crypto or GoldmanSachs is taking the legs from under everyone (below).

Either way we’ll find out this week.

452B6AED-F5E5-406F-8B5E-888B2835DE2B.jpeg.6823fd86517ceb899236d005a79d1189.jpeg

7867DD4C-DE29-4089-8E97-C20272ACCF32.thumb.jpeg.8e7366be70add3565524e0f6c0cd3b9f.jpeg

 

3D8C8964-0F0B-4F33-A420-12C4FBB3F5E6.thumb.jpeg.26398f6ff06b4d68cac8411a10185cd5.jpeg

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Castlevania

Received an email from HL earlier. They’re moving the exchange they use to trade Yamana from Toronto to London on the 28 May.

Hopefully will help increase the liquidity of the London listing.

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Heart's Ease
25 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Received an email from HL earlier. They’re moving the exchange they use to trade Yamana from Toronto to London on the 28 May.

Hopefully will help increase the liquidity of the London listing.

Thanks for this update. Can buy no problem on Free trade, but it's kill or fill on HL and has not worked so far for me. 

 

Just whilst I'm in - seeing A  a little bit of chatter on twitter about Sprott's Uranium physical trust. Hold a bit of pslv, now a chance to own a bit of physical uranium (!).

https://sprott.com/investor-relations/press-releases/sprott-asset-management-enters-into-agreement-with-uranium-participation-corporation-to-form-the-sprott-physical-uranium-trust/

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DurhamBorn

Royal Mail are going to be paying 20p a share divi going forward and progressive,those who bought last year in the crash should have a 14% yield on their investment going forward.

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Popuplights

Well that's it. Flogged my XOM shares yesterday. Didn't quite time the top, but not bad, and well up over 12 months. Had to sell now as they were in a SIP, and there was a deadline  from my severance date to sell to avoid tax. 

Happy days! 

Now my only worry is what to do with the cash 😉

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leonardratso
8 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Well that's it. Flogged my XOM shares yesterday. Didn't quite time the top, but not bad, and well up over 12 months. Had to sell now as they were in a SIP, and there was a deadline  from my severance date to sell to avoid tax. 

Happy days! 

Now my only worry is what to do with the cash 😉

how about a nice fiat x19 or triumph tr7 restoration project, you know, with duct tape holding the lights down during the day?

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2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Thanks for this update. Can buy no problem on Free trade, but it's kill or fill on HL and has not worked so far for me. 

 

Just whilst I'm in - seeing A  a little bit of chatter on twitter about Sprott's Uranium physical trust. Hold a bit of pslv, now a chance to own a bit of physical uranium (!).

https://sprott.com/investor-relations/press-releases/sprott-asset-management-enters-into-agreement-with-uranium-participation-corporation-to-form-the-sprott-physical-uranium-trust/

Thanks for the heads up.  I was already planning on moving my PM ETFs to Sprott.   Thoughts on buying "U.TSX" to get in this Uranium venture early?

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Popuplights
3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

how about a nice fiat x19 or triumph tr7 restoration project, you know, with duct tape holding the lights down during the day?

I have had provisional verbal permission to buy an old ambulance to convert into a camper!! Like this. 

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/2010-60-MERCEDES-SPRINTER-519-3-0CDI-190PS-AUTO-WAS-BODY-AMBULANCE-CAMPER-/174674173528?_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l49286

 

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leonardratso
5 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

I have had provisional verbal permission to buy an old ambulance to convert into a camper!! Like this. 

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/2010-60-MERCEDES-SPRINTER-519-3-0CDI-190PS-AUTO-WAS-BODY-AMBULANCE-CAMPER-/174674173528?_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l49286

 

hmm, nice if it comes with lights and livery, should be able to get anywhere quick.

Really needs some popup lights fitting though, and a big swing up side door to make it into a pop up shop/burger van.

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Heart's Ease
17 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thanks for the heads up.  I was already planning on moving my PM ETFs to Sprott.   Thoughts on buying "U.TSX" to get in this Uranium venture early?

I'm keen to get some exposure so grateful for all thoughts. I know URA would have been the ideal to buy and hodl.  Did own a little bit of Yellow Cake in my Freetrade but it's only a premium buy now.

Can't remember whether it's on this thread of the WSB $25 one but there's a helpful PSLV to Oz calculator link somewhere.

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DurhamBorn

@Harley another one goes just like you have been saying for years.Companies being removed one after the other from where ordinary people can share in the growth etc.What will be left for them,government debt? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-9597049/John-Laing-bought-private-equity-firm-KKR-2bn-deal.html

Edit to add you can see whats happening as the elite snap up reflation areas and remove from the market one by one.Mug punters will be left with 60/40 funds above 40 years old underperforming inflation and the under 40s owning pet digital rocks that are probably going down 99% at some point.

 

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DurhamBorn
7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

If ever a graphic illustrated the folly of renewables and why oil and gas are going nowhere then this is it. 

Whats interesting is biomass,ie burning wood mostly has still doubled since the turn of the 1900s.

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18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

China has serious structural issues besides and on top of their commodity shrotage.

If you think the misallocation of resources is unnerving in the West then don't go to China -vast towns built with noone living in them,flats in Shanghai trading at price salary multiples that make London look sane.

Below is a sample.

There's more.Clearly,the banking system is FUBAR

https://www.smartshanghai.com/articles/shanghai-life/here-are-the-numbers-on-shanghais-crazy-house-prices

 

The formula looks like this:

Median Home Value ÷ Median Annual Rent = Price-to-Rent Ratio

It’s a useful tool for comparing house prices in different cities.

For example, in New York City as of March 2019, the ratio was 36.83, the fifth highest in the country. At the top of the list is San Francisco, where the average house (that would rent for 1,000usd) costs 601,000usd, giving it a price-to-rent ratio of 50.11. (Original data here.)

I ran the numbers for Shanghai overall and for Jing’an specifically, based on information I got from this Anjuke page which tracks average rents. I set the parameters to a two-bedroom apartment and then calculated the average house price for a 100 square meter apartment, which is about average for a two-bedroom.

For the city as a whole, the price-to-rent ratio based on this data, is... 81.

image.png.dc4b39e2bbd76dfb523165d494e57fe0.png

SP, this guy provides on-the-ground example evidence of those shocking statistics. He was eventually hounded out of China two years ago, after living in China, marrying a Chinese national and making many of these type of videos over a twelve year period (his road trip videos are particularly good).  

Anyway, a couple of video diary type examples of the so called Chinese 'economic miracle'...

 

 

 

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ThoughtCriminal
2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Whats interesting is biomass,ie burning wood mostly has still doubled since the turn of the 1900s.

Yes, I was struck by that. 

 

And to be clear, I think your thesis that hydrogen etc is going to grow enormously is absolutely spot on. 

 

I just think it isn't going to replace gas and oil and after about ten years it's going to become apparent that it's been an epic mistake. 

 

But investing isn't about whats right, only what's going to happen. So we'll all be enjoying hookers and coke either way. 🤷‍♂️

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DurhamBorn
5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yes, I was struck by that. 

 

And to be clear, I think your thesis that hydrogen etc is going to grow enormously is absolutely spot on. 

 

I just think it isn't going to replace gas and oil and after about ten years it's going to become apparent that it's been an epic mistake. 

 

But investing isn't about whats right, only what's going to happen. So we'll all be enjoying hookers and coke either way. 🤷‍♂️

Coke,far too expensive ,i was more a Billy £3 a wrap guy xD 

Big oil know the above i think,they also know nuclear is the real threat.My dad has been steadily buying Rolls Royce since the collapse last year for the nuclear side, hes usually as crafty as a fox.Big oil can get into renewables,get the subsidy etc and lift the prices so the cost of capital goes up for everyone else.Uranium and nuclear are the real hedge to the oilies.

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