Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[geordie_lurch]

25 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Well they're certainly pushing the narrative from all angles:

https://reut.rs/3wBsjZx

It seems we've gone beyond questioning why on earth the BoE is buying the bonds of private companies, it's now a question of whether that gives them the power to force the political agenda.  Weird.

The other strange bit in that article is the woke comment from Positive Money.  I remembered seeing stuff from them in the past (I think with Steve Baker) which appeared to be genuinely trying to get a proper debate going about the monetary system and the issues with FRB.  A quick look at their site now suggests that all such problems will be resolved if we appoint more BAME women to the BoE.  When did they get subverted?

About the same time the founder Ben Dyson went to head up the Bank Of England's Digital Money division and it seems he has actually recently moved to do similar at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) @JimmyTheBruce

[Barnsey]

What's happening both here and abroad seems to be a permanent exit of older employees from the workforce. Combine this with demographics and that's where wage inflation will largely come from I'd imagine.

[desertorchid]

3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

What's happening both here and abroad seems to be a permanent exit of older employees from the workforce. Combine this with demographics and that's where wage inflation will largely come from I'd imagine.

What I am seeing is the opposite. Older employees being replaced by younger, cheaper recruits with fewer contractual benefits. Great way to cut business costs. Average wages would fall however.

[MrXxxx]

On 20/05/2021 at 23:52, Mapper said:

I don't know if this is 100% accurate, but I read that an IQ of under 70 indicates mental disability.

 

But if this is the case, what is more worrying is that as the military are selecting those with higher IQ's from the population the % of those with low IQ's in the population increases....any wonder why the population have accepted the narrative of the last 14 months, and what other worrying agendas do they have planned to 'roll out'?

[Noallegiance]

52 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

What's happening both here and abroad seems to be a permanent exit of older employees from the workforce. Combine this with demographics and that's where wage inflation will largely come from I'd imagine.

Until pensions get ruined and 70 year olds need a job.

[dnb24]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Any government?

You are over investing in the idea of Labour being some sort of political saviour.

They are not.

This is standards Labour tactics of the 80s - the Conservatives are terrible, vote Labour because ....

You need to be designing Pols out of governance,. not replacing hem with ones that say what you want to heer.

 

 

Transactional democracy- the downfall of all empires and will continue to be so - “offer/give me this and I’ll vote for you”. 

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

I've been thinking about this, and I think there must be a "trickle down" effect when it comes to wage inflation. The highest paid jobs are, with some exceptions, those with the lowest supply of labour. I would have thought those jobs are where you would expect wage inflation to manifest itself first, due to tighter labour supply. IT pay is most definitely on the increase in the south east, around 10% up on last year. I wonder how long before those increases are seen in lower paid industries? Anyone have any theories or stats to share?

Trickle down is gormless economic theory.

Demand creates demand.

Orgs can push back on spending, be it labour, capital or, now, software.

Bane of my life - companies trying to extend the usage beyond support life of products.

It's fine but you really have to be prepared to be caught with your pants.

Spy spy, x-machine has failed. We are trying to get it replaced but

a) supplier has exited the sector

b) there's an 18 month lead time.

Managers are paid to manage rather than piss around speculating or guessing MTBF.

Pissing around with fuckwittery like not recruiting for years kills orgs.

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But if this is the case, what is more worrying is that as the military are selecting those with higher IQ's from the population the % of those with low IQ's in the population increases....any wonder why the population have accepted the narrative of the last 14 months, and what other worrying agendas do they have planned to 'roll out'?

Even the army, team grunt of the military, are long past cannon fodder.

Theres so much heavy plant and dangerous things in modern military that they need to swerve the bottom 30%

[JimmyTheBruce]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

About the same time the founder Ben Dyson went to head up the Bank Of England's Digital Money division and it seems he has actually recently moved to do similar at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) @JimmyTheBruce

You're really not helping my cynicism @geordie_lurch

[Lightscribe]

So BTC has double tested around the $35k mark. For it to confirm that this is the bottom for now the second half of that inverse head and shoulders will have to pass the 99 day MA (purple) line.

So I’m back in at the moment to ride it up to that point. If it fails then it could be the flash crash towards the $22k mark before bouncing upwards that’s been circulating around the crypto world.

As I said from a few weeks ago, the movements of BTC have been acting odd. That’s my opinion of looking at BTC charts everyday from 2013 and going through multiple crashes. This isn’t connected with SP500/Nasdaq movements, which it has in the past.

We supposedly have a bit of war going on which would explain what I’ve noticed. But this isn’t Reddit behind GME vs a hedge fund. This is rumoured to be the crypto world whales waging war against the likes of GoldmanSachs and the major institutions. Should be time to grab the popcorn.

[JMD]

23 hours ago, janch said:

I didn't but I'm beginning to think maybe there will be increasing chaos and inflation. 

Supply chains are becoming more fragile because people can't get parts/raw materials etc.  There will probably be more shortages and hence inflation.  In the US according to Max Keiser no-one wants a minimum wage job when they get a stimmy check (cheque) for double the amount so if people stop working that makes the supply chains even more fragile.  I know the rest of the world isn't the US but many of us are saying it's not worth working hard when so much is taken in tax etc and this probably applies in most of Europe at least.

What happens when supermarket workers stop working?  Or those who grow food; do the water treatment for clean drinking water; maintain the national grid etc.  These are essential services for the western style of life.  (Never mind the NHS.  We hardly need them if we learn to stay healthy)

I'm beginning to think it might be sensible to lay in a few food stocks at least.  @Harleyhas the right idea of being as self-sufficient as possible and I would grow some food at least if I didn't live in a flat.  My consolation there is that when everyone else is losing as their expensive property goes down in price, I have less to lose.

Until recently I might have agreed with you that there were risks of those things happening. But last year showed not only how easily people can be manipulated, but that they actually demand - and enjoy - government policies like furlough schemes and that their children are fed breakfast at school... So I think 'soup to nuts' government intervention it will be. My base case is a mandatory 25hour work week topped up with UBI, introduced over 5 years. Evan skilled jobs will go this way, after all the Labour party nearly put this policy into their last manifesto for NHS workers. I just can't see how millions of unemployed without a chance of re-entering the Labour force is sustainable, especially with tech restricting future job prospects even further... Might sound radical and I'm not saying this is the solution but what other options are there for government? They operate on 5-10 year time lines, and I don't see that changing even in the midst of economic meltdown.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

18 hours ago, Erewhon888 said:

The link below should point to the transcript of the Macrovoices appearance of a deflationist. Townsend accepted the data as presented but disagreed on the outcome being deflation for reasons he explains after the interview.

Deflationist David Rosenberg argues that the data does not support the inflation argument (at least in the U.S.)

I have no idea which camp is correct but it seems the inflationist view is predominating with only a few deflationists left.

Seems to me that he is seeing what he wants/expects to see. The stimmy money hasn't been spent for two reasons. Firstly, what can you spend it on if you're in lockdown? It would be interesting to see if there are more savings in New York and LA rather than the always-open Dakotas and Florida. Secondly, uncertainty encourages saving. Once people feel that they're getting back to normal and a usual level of job security they will spend more. He doesn't tackle the increased propensity to save and pay down debt. He claims everything is trundling along the previous path but that clearly isn't the case.

The other issue that is hard to quantify is the apparent breakdown in supply chains. Certain commodities roaring higher, chip supply issues, untold anecdotes on this site. There will be other areas with lower supply. Fewer restaurants means they will have pricing power. I've seen the price of beer in London pubs this month and it isn't pretty. Largely because there aren't so many open and Government rules reduce capacity further.

[JMD]

20 hours ago, Stinky Wizzleteats said:

Did anything come of that rumour that the patriarch of Samsung had died and they were covering it up to avoid death duties? Has he been seen yet?

Yes, he's out and about but unfortunately is suffering with a very stiff back and has trouble walking. Oh and he has developed lock-jaw, and also needs dark glasses due to bad migraines apparently. (succession is a 'mortifying' business in Asia!!)

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I've seen the price of beer in London pubs this month and it isn't pretty.

How much? More than £6?

[Erewhon888]

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

How much? More than £6?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

How much? More than £6?

A pint that I would expect to be £5 was £5.80. There are cheaper options locally.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

A pint that I would expect to be £5 was £5.80. There are cheaper options locally.

Ouch!

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Erewhon888 said:

Is Belfast really that expensive for a pint?

[Erewhon888]

44 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Is Belfast really that expensive for a pint?

Apparently. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/belfast-fourth-most-expensive-place-in-uk-for-pints-40440758.html

Quote

The Observatory on the 23rd floor of Hastings' swish new Grand Central Hotel on Bedford Street will charge you £8 for a pint of draught beer.

 

[Castlevania]

23 minutes ago, Erewhon888 said:

Apparently. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/belfast-fourth-most-expensive-place-in-uk-for-pints-40440758.html

 

Why is it so expensive? I thought Northern Ireland was a cheap place to live.

@JoeDavolaIs Belfast really expensive for a pint?

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Why is it so expensive? I thought Northern Ireland was a cheap place to live.

@JoeDavolaIs Belfast really expensive for a pint?

Yep.

Mind you, last time I bought a pint was August 2020.

I spend virtually no money in bars. I guess they can charge what they want because the ever-shrinking number of people that go into bars will pay whatever's asked. Nobody I know over 30 is interested in going near a bar they've better things to do with their money.

People are drinking more than ever but they're just buying booze to drink at home. Bars are for students basically; the under 25's.

[JoeDavola]

29 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Why is it so expensive? I thought Northern Ireland was a cheap place to live.

@JoeDavolaIs Belfast really expensive for a pint?

Here you go - just taken these photos. Queuing up for ages for the chance to sit on the pavement by a main road with an overpriced pint. And actually 25 is probably too old - average age is about 21 I'd say.

[Castlevania]

20 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Here you go - just taken these photos. Queuing up for ages for the chance to sit on the pavement by a main road with an overpriced pint. And actually 25 is probably too old - average age is about 21 I'd say.

Sounds amazing. A Wetherspoons full of 20 year old girls. 

In London an average Wetherspoons is full of pensioners.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Sounds amazing. A Wetherspoons full of 20 year old girls.

It's not filled with anyone.

You're not allowed to go inside yet. You have to drink outside.

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

It's not filled with anyone.

You're not allowed to go inside yet. You have to drink outside.

I thought pubs were open now?

Also, where are the seats in front of the fine establishment?