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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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56 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Anybody else had price rises recently or is it just Bulb pulling a fast one?

 

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just been checking as my fix runs out in July and its a big jump

With the writing on the wall for energy prices I fixed gas and leccy until Feb 2024 earlier this year at what I felt was a good rate (plus I own Shell ;)).

Might still be available -

Shell Energy Go Further February 2024 (Single Rate) Southern Region

Go Further February 2024 has the following features:

Electric: Unit rate18.696p per kWh Standing charge 35.70p per day

Gas: Unit rate 3.533p per kWh Standing charge 26.48p per day

100% renewable electricity

Carbon credits for electricity and gas

Price rise protection until February 2024

Exclusive rewards with Shell
 

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just been checking as my fix runs out in July and its a big jump.Luckily buying DRAX in the collapse and selling a lot of it now has paid my gas and electric bill until im 72,or 64 if we get another 65% inflation xD .Wait until people start to link windmills etc to them being shafted.All these input costs rising and rising nd the BOE thinks its all a blip.

Ha, sweet.

The BOE aren't as dumb as they make out, they know full well it's not a blip. They want inflation, they just don't want us to see it.

We'll be hearing the word 'transitory' a lot over the coming years.

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DurhamBorn
1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Ha, sweet.

The BOE aren't as dumb as they make out, they know full well it's not a blip. They want inflation, they just don't want us to see it.

We'll be hearing the word 'transitory' a lot over the coming years.

Exactly,they are lifting the liquidity in the economy by a large enough margin to ensure tax flows back to government.

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3 hours ago, Starsend said:

I've had the same from Bulb as well. On top of the rise a couple of months back my electric is up about 20% this year.

Anybody else had price rises recently or is it just Bulb pulling a fast one?

 

I compared prices with Eon and they were very close, only £20 different for the year.

Take a look at this from Ofgem:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/electricity-prices-day-ahead-baseload-contracts-monthly-average-gb

For some reason I can't get screenshots to upload, there is a nice graph with the line shooting up to be seen on the above link.

 

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DurhamBorn
32 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

I compared prices with Eon and they were very close, only £20 different for the year.

Take a look at this from Ofgem:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/electricity-prices-day-ahead-baseload-contracts-monthly-average-gb

For some reason I can't get screenshots to upload, there is a nice graph with the line shooting up to be seen on the above link.

 

Notice how its base load.The windmills have not been going around much at all down to 1% off need some days,those gas cycle plants loving it.As we all know nuclear is the real enemy of gas and even oil,but the oilies are doing a fantastic job of pushing windmills.Get the subs and make more from the gas,its almost perfect business.

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20 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

 

This lecture is a bit dry. Apparently the presenter is a ex-government adviser so looks like another example of how 'following THE science' is in reality mostly about 'following A science'. Have not viewed all video yet, so don't know how good it is, but i've halted it where he begins talking about the above original BP source graph (i.e. minus the IEA data)...   

 

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6 hours ago, JMD said:

Will Cazoo become another 'Amazon'? Are car dealers days numbered? I hadn't thought about car dealers becoming just another 'retail casualty' statistic, along with the demise of the corner shop/supermarket checkout assistant, etc.

More and more market/business concentration happening. Wont be long before we get that 'RoboCop dystopian vision' of just having several companies doing everything, a la MegaCorp... i know, i know - we are well on our way to that reality happening. 

I notice that Cazoo boss may float his 2-year old company for $8Bn. Plus he is a new entrant to this years Sunday Times Rich List.

I haven't run any of the figures yet but DMGT are on my watch list, they own 20% of Cazoo.

Cazoo is meant to list in Q3 and the DMGT price has been falling.

 

Many of the rest of the DMGT businesses were hit by Covid but things like exhibitions should be getting back on track next year.

 

I like the setup of DMGT, shareholders in the listed shares have zero voting rights xD

 

 

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50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

the oilies are doing a fantastic job of pushing windmills.Get the subs and make more from the gas,its almost perfect business.

So THAT'S why the oilies were never too fussed about all the dodgy climate change science!  Thanks for that mate, it's bothered me for ages.  Talk about playing both sides!

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.....Luckily buying DRAX in the collapse and selling a lot of it now has paid my gas and electric bill until im 72,or 64 if we get another 65% inflation xD .....

Yep, it's done well.  Technically, a well behaved stock.  Interested you're selling some.  IMO looks overbought, at the 38% Fib level from the Mar 2014 top, but has just broken its range and one resistance level on the monthly.  I'm holding until I see some sustainable red at which point I'll trade out and then in a third for a little juice.  Good lad, still yielding 3.79% even at this level.  But some fundamental negatives to contend with such as insider selling and poor interest and div coverage due in part to an unusual expense.  The there's that c.80% DTE ratio and 28% intangibles!

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Lightscribe

So we’ve had a bit of a rebound. As I said yesterday I went back into LINK and XRP.

LINK is now up 48% and XRP 26% in USDT terms. I’m leaving XRP but LINK has rebounded far too quickly so I’ve now sold back into BTC as it will retrace (in normal movements anyway - unless the industry insiders know something is being announced soon) I’ll take that risk at this point.

30C19FE0-61B2-4E9C-A8D2-D1D6A9AF8C6F.thumb.jpeg.747b8e418629b49a764e34e384630fbb.jpeg

24213FD5-B719-476F-A590-1EF172D72164.thumb.jpeg.7118d55c24a246cda2f108205c648599.jpeg

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FFS is nothing safe, now I can't even have breakfast!

Warning of Weetabix shortage amid 'fire and rehire' strike row

Weetabix packets

 

Unions are warning there could be a Weetabix shortage this summer if a "fire and rehire" row leads to strikes.

Engineers at the company's factories in Kettering and Corby in Northamptonshire are threatening to walk out over pay and conditions and say this would lead to production stoppages.

They say they are being made to accept new contracts that could mean some of them losing up to £5,000 a year.

Weetabix said it had been consulting with workers over new ways of working.

 

On a serious note, BBC seem to be working for the union, giving them publicity to help them get a rise.

 

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11 minutes ago, planit said:

 

FFS is nothing safe, now I can't even have breakfast!

Warning of Weetabix shortage amid 'fire and rehire' strike row

Weetabix packets

 

Unions are warning there could be a Weetabix shortage this summer if a "fire and rehire" row leads to strikes.

Engineers at the company's factories in Kettering and Corby in Northamptonshire are threatening to walk out over pay and conditions and say this would lead to production stoppages.

They say they are being made to accept new contracts that could mean some of them losing up to £5,000 a year.

Weetabix said it had been consulting with workers over new ways of working.

 

On a serious note, BBC seem to be working for the union, giving them publicity to help them get a rise.

 

Fuck Weetabix, Lidl equivalent is 1/2 price and tastes the same. 36 pack of the Lidl own brand is ~£1.50, Weetabix £3.20 iirc...

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9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looking at the long bond now and Fed action,its likely all bubble investments are now in structural bear markets.Big tech and crypto down by very large percentages over the cycle both macro and legislation/anti trust etc.Crypto mostly down 90% from here i expect,some 99%.There will be some big bear market rallies to suck people back in,especially inexperienced younger people etc,only to then remove all their capital at the start of a reflation,ouch.

Owning investments with low underlying real assets ,or no underlying assets is about the worst positioning you could have at this point given we have entered a rebuild economy backbone cycle.

Just my opinion,not trading advice etc.

As I’ve stated before, I agree with DB 100%. Crypto will crash to most likely 90% levels as well as the FAANGs and bubble assets. 

My opinion slightly differs however. I don’t think we’ll have fiat currency in the next ten years, I’ll stick my neck out and say five.

I’m heavily invested with everyone else in inflation stocks and hopefully that will enable everyone on here to get through the storms that are coming. 

I’m also aware however that the prudent will pay through asset forfeiture and heavy taxation for the feckless. The government won’t let us lot on here be amongst the financially free when so many will suffer. 

Nor will the government let a few early crypto adopter basement dwellers become the next 1%ers. The game is rigged and the rug will be pulled. I can only hope by investing in everything including the technology that’s coming next, will put me in the better position than otherwise. 

Happy Monday everyone! :D

(PS anyone want a rare UCS lego set to trade for a can of dog food?)

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SpectrumFX
2 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Fuck Weetabix, Lidl equivalent is 1/2 price and tastes the same. 36 pack of the Lidl own brand is ~£1.50, Weetabix £3.20 iirc...

Who makes it though? All the own brand Weetabix tastes exactly the same as the branded stuff to me. Because of that I've always assumed that it was all actually made in the same factory and just put in differently branded boxes.

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DurhamBorn
28 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://zycrypto.com/goldman-sachs-calls-crypto-a-new-asset-class-marking-major-shift-in-tone/
 

Now there’s a surprise. I can only say ride the wave. 

Edit: Cue lift off in BTC

E9FC7863-03CE-4A41-95A7-934E0D4068A6.thumb.jpeg.58636916f4c22a68ecf529a26b3c4de3.jpeg

Yep,almost certain we see some really big rallies in the space before they go down 90% to 99.99%.Of course the tech will be in use in the future and likely some amazing uses and companies,but there is no way the market will allow a load of ordinary younger people to clean up on this asset class if is even an asset.Liquidity will be removed by the shrewd and that will be it.

Goldman are the biggest crooks in the game,almost certain they have positions they are pushing.

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Lightscribe
36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,almost certain we see some really big rallies in the space before they go down 90% to 99.99%.Of course the tech will be in use in the future and likely some amazing uses and companies,but there is no way the market will allow a load of ordinary younger people to clean up on this asset class if is even an asset.Liquidity will be removed by the shrewd and that will be it.

Goldman are the biggest crooks in the game,almost certain they have positions they are pushing.

As I said 100% agree with you and have done from the very start back on HPC. Hopefully your calls have enabled many on here and the lurkers to get in front as it has done me, so I’ll owe you several home brewed beers in the Durham resistance utopia to come. B|

I’d also like to thank @VeryMeanReversion. He’s very quiet on here but his chart reading skills are second to none. When he sells a top take notice. I remember in flash crash on HPC in 2015/16? He waded in big with Royal Mail, and I couldn’t understand then why he did but I do now obviously.

But enough this isn’t a circle jerk or Eurovision! :P

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Straingone
5 hours ago, planit said:

I haven't run any of the figures yet but DMGT are on my watch list, they own 20% of Cazoo.

Cazoo is meant to list in Q3 and the DMGT price has been falling.

 

Many of the rest of the DMGT businesses were hit by Covid but things like exhibitions should be getting back on track next year.

 

I like the setup of DMGT, shareholders in the listed shares have zero voting rights xD

 

 

Had a look into the Cazoo story out of interest and here are some of the numbers I pulled out:

17 collection centres

800+ staff

£1b revenue forecast 2021

25,000 cars sold in 18 months/46 per day

Estimate circa 17,000 units sold per year

At £500 per unit profit, £8.4m profit before tax

Current value over £2b (based on DMGT stated 20% holding £409m)

Valued as a ‘unicorn’ business in £800m in June 2020

Cazoo has increased in value by £1.2b in less than a year

DMGT stake cost £34m October 2020

DMGT stake currently valued at £409m May 2021

Two funding rounds totalling £450m

Expected stock market flotation in Q3:2021

Estimated flotation value £5b

DMGT stake valued at £1b if flotation goes ahead.

DMGT ROI 2841% in one year.

((100,000,000-34,000,000)/34,000,000) x 100)

Would anybody be able to point out if I have cocked the numbers up, or are they really that fantastical?

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4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://zycrypto.com/goldman-sachs-calls-crypto-a-new-asset-class-marking-major-shift-in-tone/
 

Now there’s a surprise. I can only say ride the wave. 

Edit: Cue lift off in BTC

E9FC7863-03CE-4A41-95A7-934E0D4068A6.thumb.jpeg.58636916f4c22a68ecf529a26b3c4de3.jpeg

Do you think the next btc ride has any chance of taking us to the Plan-B estimate of 288k dollars? I believe he is still predicting this by year end.                                                                                                                                                     It does sound a fantastical figure but if a 90% price crash at some point did happen, I'm thinking btc needs a 'post-crash' approx. 30k value to sustain the crypto sector, the blockchain tech, and to encourage further crypto innovation over next few years. Of course if crypto is not an emerging asset class then none of those things matter, however I think the introduction of CBDCs etc, almost requires a healthy maturing private crypto space, plus it helps legitimise the CDBC issuance by government.                                                        I note that you estimate just 5 years before fiat is replaced by cbdc's. I don't know but perhaps that time scale chimes with some of the above? To think of stock price movements playing out like this would be utterly crazy, but btc has till now seemed to follow a very regular (pre-programmed?) price cycle. Maybe we get just a few more years before it is regulated and taxed to oblivion!

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3 minutes ago, JMD said:

 Maybe we get just a few more years before it is regulated and taxed to oblivion!

USA 2021 tax return asks do you own, or have you owned crypto currency.. etc etc

How much u make.. we are going to tax you..etc  

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44 minutes ago, JMD said:

Do you think the next btc ride has any chance of taking us to the Plan-B estimate of 288k dollars? I believe he is still predicting this by year end.                                                                                                                                                     It does sound a fantastical figure but if a 90% price crash at some point did happen, I'm thinking btc needs a 'post-crash' approx. 30k value to sustain the crypto sector, the blockchain tech, and to encourage further crypto innovation over next few years. Of course if crypto is not an emerging asset class then none of those things matter, however I think the introduction of CBDCs etc, almost requires a healthy maturing private crypto space, plus it helps legitimise the CDBC issuance by government.                                                        I note that you estimate just 5 years before fiat is replaced by cbdc's. I don't know but perhaps that time scale chimes with some of the above? To think of stock price movements playing out like this would be utterly crazy, but btc has till now seemed to follow a very regular (pre-programmed?) price cycle. Maybe we get just a few more years before it is regulated and taxed to oblivion!

I think the next wave will be due (as always) to what the central banks are doing. 

If the money printing ramps up even further (as they might not be able to avoid now) or the CBDC gets announced then things will be off again.

But if BTC gets to 300k or more, as a response, by that time what will that amount actually be worth?

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