Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bricormortis]

Here's some info on silver. Shows its average gain / loss over the 12 different months. Note the low point around the 4th of July, and the rising tendency to September.  There is no guarantee this will repeat of course, but the seasonality seems interesting. 

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Here's some info on silver

please no, this is what silver does to you  @Lokiwill like that......soz, right I'll be off now then

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, nirvana said:

please no, this is what silver does to you  @Lokiwill like that......soz, right I'll be off now then

 

  i do indeed!

Silver is a bitch and should be treated like one - forgotten about until it benefits you to remember it

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

Silver is a bitch and should be treated like one

Amen BRO! Right gonna get on the bong and play 'smack my bitch up' at volume 11!!!! 

me n silver be like

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

so you think BTC and ETH will crash 90% too? Just as Goldmans are treating it as an 'investable asset'?

Apparently they're now ramping Eth to $18k USD too! lmfao

https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-bitcoin-investable-asset-btc-new-asset-class/

Yes, just the same as the FAANGs and any over inflated bubble assets like houses (just the % wise drop will be less and not be at the same ratio or speed).

Nothing changes the BK takes down everything, it’s just the inflation stocks will be less affected. What goes up must come down, so tech has the furthest to fall. 

My opinion is it doesn’t matter what the crypto is worth in fiat, if indeed fiat isn’t going to be around in 10 years. I’ll ride the wave, accumulate as much ISO20022 crypto (and the technologies intrinsically linked to SWIFT) that I can, and take it off on a hardware wallet away from any exchanges.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

If you roadmap out long enough then its obvious there will be a few competing crypto type currencies,or whatever we choose to call them,i guess money because they will become  means of exchange for goods and services.The question is though what they will be.Will they be national currencies that slowly merge together so we end up with a few in the world,or will governments allow something to take their place.On Mars they will want the same currency/money unit as here.

Governments have and always will remove buying power from saved labour.The reasoning behind crypto is sound for that reason.However that doesnt mean its a good investment now because nobody knows what position any of them right now will hold in the future.

What the big US trading houses say has no meaning.They could be taking the oppposite side of the trade and talking the price up while they do so because they know something is coming from regulation.Likely the Fed need one crypto to blow up first,DOGE might fit the bill,or isnt there one called $ass now or something 

Australian Safe Shepard coin actually DB 

https://brokeassstuart.com/2021/05/20/the-ass-coin-crypto-billionaire-the-shit-coin-movement/

Or you can trade Pregnant Butt finance token of the poo coin exchange if you prefer.

https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x6221ad2fa0eab591940800dab578908062d15a68

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-demand-for-feds-reverse-repo-facility-is-surging-again-11621904689

 

“Right now, the more money you put in, you get it right back,” he said. “The market is saying ‘It’s time.’ There is the evidence that QE has gone too far.”

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

“Right now, the more money you put in, you get it right back,”

It's great isn't it   (@nirvana )

 

[nirvana]

26 minutes ago, Loki said:

It's great isn't it   (@nirvana )

 

you know what I think, it's works till it doesn't.....bunch o feckin clowns 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Another nice time lapse. This time the constitution of the s+p 500 by sector. 

 

Tech stocks looking ominous. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

How's that for stealthflation? 

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How's that for stealthflation? 

ALso worth consdiering the dumbing down of ingredients.Mrs Panza is a food scientist  and there's a constant battle to reduce cost without affecting taste.

Shaun Ricards has been banging on about thsi for years,but that graphic is the most powerful way of hammering the point home I've seen yet.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Another nice time lapse. This time the constitution of the s+p 500 by sector. 

 

Tech stocks looking ominous. 

I just noticed how low energy has fallen to in 2021 as a percentage!

 

Holy shit, that has to be a sign. 

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Holy shit, that has to be a sign. 

depends if you believe Skynet is about to take control and create free power from the sun and the wind* 

AND if convid is a population control event in order to save the planet - it does actually make sense from that POV, if I was part of the 1% I'd say do it!

*Einstein said energy is neither created nor destroyed.....it's the fact that the planet is running out of resources that you need to be worried about

forget about oil n gas if you can't even get fresh water and you have to live in a 10 foot square box that costs a million quid thanks to inflation 

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 hours ago, nirvana said:

depends if you believe Skynet is about to take control and create free power from the sun and the wind* 

AND if convid is a population control event in order to save the planet - it does actually make sense from that POV, if I was part of the 1% I'd say do it!

*Einstein said energy is neither created nor destroyed.....it's the fact that the planet is running out of resources that you need to be worried about

forget about oil n gas if you can't even get fresh water and you have to live in a 10 foot square box that costs a million quid thanks to inflation 

Well I'd say based on energy falling to an alltime low of 2% of the S + P and tech hitting an alltime high of 43% that were either about to enter the matrix or there's about to be a massive correction of those two positions. 

 

That and the fact that anyone who's looked beyond fuzzy feel good climate ideology and done basic calculations of what net zero involves for energy knows that the only way it works is if our living standards revert to the middle ages. 

 

Maybe the ruling class really are that fucking stupid. 

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

if our living standards revert to the middle ages. 

living standards in the UK are pretty low I'll admit but it's not the same in other parts of the world*

The robots are coming whether you like it or not, solar panels and other tech is incredibly cheap thanks to our little chinkie friends.....you can actually live off very little if you open your mind....just cos everyone else behaves like an rsole doesn't mean you have to.....

*Disclaimer: I avoid the UK nowadays 

 

[BurntBread]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How's that for stealthflation?

Don't be silly, @ThoughtCriminal; it's nothing to do with inflation. This is a consumer-led drive that people want to be protected from the scourge of diabetes-inducing sugar. The food industry is doing its best to live up to these difficult demands. At the same time, "we the people" are desperate to be protected from planet-destroying meat and dairy products, and if we have to pay the same prices when the replacement ingredients cost less, then so be it.

In fact, food is only the beginning of what an enlightened government can protect us from.  I'm especially keen to be able to sacrifice owning our own cars, overseas holidays, and living in over-sized houses with spare bedrooms.

With enough legislation and policy initiatives, we can even overcome "mental health issues". Working has well known benefits in this regard, and fortunately we are being protected ever more diligently from the scourge of retirement. All the other storms which disturb our happy tranquillity are well on the way to being removed, too: unsafe ideas in public discourse, a free press, the ability to gather in public to protest, and free & fair elections.

I am so grateful for big brother, and his little sister "marketing".

[jamtomorrow]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

living standards in the UK are pretty low I'll admit but it's not the same in other parts of the world*

I dunno @nirvana - our neighbours just spaffed another £5K on their third set of windows this year, and the husband just acquired a full-blown mid-life crisis "prestige" Audi. And they go through a lot of stress with work to keep themselves in that position.

So when I hear "living standards may fall", it just makes me wonder whether that's even a bad thing for the majority (let alone "everyone"). I know an awful lot of families like this pounding away on the hedonic treadmill, and none of them seem "happy" to me.

And they've only been able to get themselves into that state because the macro environment has incentivized over-production and created a consumption race. So yeah, living standards might fall, but living standards are in a bubble too so watchagunnado?

[ThoughtCriminal]

35 minutes ago, nirvana said:

living standards in the UK are pretty low I'll admit but it's not the same in other parts of the world*

The robots are coming whether you like it or not, solar panels and other tech is incredibly cheap thanks to our little chinkie friends.....you can actually live off very little if you open your mind....just cos everyone else behaves like an rsole doesn't mean you have to.....

*Disclaimer: I avoid the UK nowadays 

 

You're preaching to the choir as I'm neither a materialist nor am I remotely committed to remaining on this godforsaken floating asylum of airstrip 1 for one minute more than necessary. 

 

I just know that net zero is going to collapse under its own contradictions. My plan is to be in the middle of nowhere when that happens 

[nirvana]

54 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I know an awful lot of families like this pounding away on the hedonic treadmill, and none of them seem "happy" to me.

And they've only been able to get themselves into that state because the macro environment has incentivized over-production and created a consumption race. So yeah, living standards might fall, but living standards are in a bubble too so watchagunnado?

dude that was me! But I did it with a lot of cash........YOU GET THE FUCK OUT OF DODGE! Build a WAR chest of dosh and you BTFD!!

@Harleyis getting it now, he took a bit of convincing 

 

[nirvana]

55 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

My plan is to be in the middle of nowhere when that happens 

yes I'm already there  Look I won't comment anymore in this excellent thread......I can be a shit stirrer but I think I've seen the light

Good luck to you all 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just now, nirvana said:

yes I'm already there  Look I won't comment anymore in this excellent thread......I can be a shit stirrer but I think I've seen the light

Good luck to you all 

I think most of us enjoy your posts. 

 

Shit needs to be stirred now and then, so I hope you'll carry on 👍

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think most of us enjoy your posts. 

 

Shit needs to be stirred now and then, so I hope you'll carry on 👍

yeah well that rocket is SpaceX.....it's a subliminal message about how crypto is going crazy again this week

Gotta be in it to win it!!! 

[jamtomorrow]

Oh dear oh dear, if only somebody had seen this coming:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57247757

Building projects hit by lack of supplies and price rises

But I do love the smell of 2-bagger in the morning:

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

I dunno @nirvana - our neighbours just spaffed another £5K on their third set of windows this year, and the husband just acquired a full-blown mid-life crisis "prestige" Audi. And they go through a lot of stress with work to keep themselves in that position.

So when I hear "living standards may fall", it just makes me wonder whether that's even a bad thing for the majority (let alone "everyone"). I know an awful lot of families like this pounding away on the hedonic treadmill, and none of them seem "happy" to me.

And they've only been able to get themselves into that state because the macro environment has incentivized over-production and created a consumption race. So yeah, living standards might fall, but living standards are in a bubble too so watchagunnado?

I don’t understand, there is no need to throw rocks at your neighbours windows just cause they’ve got an Audi, it’s probably on PCP