Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Innkeeper]

8 hours ago, Loki said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/change-coming-engine-no-1-wins-two-exxon-board-seats

Just as @DurhamBorn said, more confirmation

...and keep your enemies closer.

[MrXxxx]

21 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

am currently restoring a 21 year old MX5 to use as my runaround. If I can ever get the brakes unseized I'll be well away

Check the brake lines...lots of kinks and curves, and it only takes a slight distortion (or a heavy handed mechanic) for them to make the brakes bind slightly...I had this issue for ages before I resolved it.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9fee812f-6975-49ce-915c-aeb25d3dd748
 

By the way everyone, you have until the 23rd of June to opt out of having your data shared commercially (and beyond). After that date it’s irreversible. I’ve given my form to my GP surgery and opted out on my NHS profile online.

They are sneaking this shit in through the back door.

For those that can’t get behind the paywall:

England’s NHS plans to share patient records with third parties

55m patients have until June 23 to opt out of having their health data scraped into a new database

England’s NHS is preparing to scrape the medical histories of 55m patients, including sensitive information on mental and sexual health, criminal records and abuse, into a database it will share with third parties.

The data collection project, which is the first of its kind, has caused an uproar among privacy campaigners, who say it is “legally problematic”, especially as patients only have a few weeks to opt out of the plan. 

NHS Digital, which runs the health service’s IT systems, confirmed the plan to pool together medical records from every patient in England who is registered with a GP clinic into a single lake that will be available to academic and commercial third parties for research and planning purposes.

Cori Crider, co-founder of Foxglove, a campaign group for digital rights, said: “We all want to see the NHS come out of the pandemic stronger” but noted that the NHS had been “completely silent” on who would have access to the data. 

“Is it pharma companies? The health arm of Google Deepmind? If you ask patients whether they want details of their fertility treatment or abortion, or results of their colonoscopy shared with [those companies], they’re not going to want that,” she said. 

Foxglove has issued a legal letter to the Department of Health and Social Care, questioning the lawfulness of the plans under current data protection laws, and threatening further legal action. 

Rosa Curling, a solicitor at Foxglove, wrote in the letter that she had “serious concerns” about the legality of the move because no explicit consent had been given and “very few members of the public will be aware that the new processing is imminent, directly affecting their personal medical data”.

Patients have until June 23 to opt out by filling in a form and taking it to their GP before their historical records will become a permanent and irreversible part of the new data set. Patients who opt out after the deadline can stop future data from being funnelled into the new system. 

The plan to create a new data set was announced by Matt Hancock, health secretary, in early April and publicised mainly on blogs on the NHS Digital website, and through flyers at GP surgeries, said NHS Digital, which added that the plans had been in the works for three years. 

But Phil Booth, founder of advocacy group MedConfidential, said: “They’re trying to sneak it out, they are giving you six weeks nominally and if you do not act based on web pages on the NHS digital site and some YouTube videos and a few tweets, your entire GP history could have been scraped, never to be deleted.” 

He added that the NHS had “opaque” commercial relationships, often through middlemen, and that it would be difficult to trace who ultimately sees the data. NHS Digital says on its website that it publishes a monthly register of who it has released data to, and whether the data is anonymised or not. 

Data that directly identifies patients will be replaced with unique codes in the new data set, but the NHS will hold the keys to unlock the codes “in certain circumstances, and where there is a valid legal reason”, according to its website. 

NHS Digital said the Information Commissioner’s Office, the UK’s data regulator, had not objected to its plans, and that it was in the process of delivering a data protection impact assessment. 

The plan comes following an attempt in 2013 to extract GP records into a central database, called the Care.data programme, which was abandoned in 2016 after complaints about confidentiality and commercial use.

[Fully Detached]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Check the brake lines...lots of kinks and curves, and it only takes a slight distortion (or a heavy handed mechanic) for them to make the brakes bind slightly...I had this issue for ages before I resolved it.

Thanks - I am certainly in the "heavy handed mechanic" category myself, so I'll have a look. Current thought is that the front caliper pistons just need pulling out and replacing and new seals putting in there. I'm trying not to spend too much because I need to get it welded for the MOT, so I want to make sure it passes before I start spending too much on it, so double checking the lines seems like the least expensive place to start.

[Lightscribe]

12 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have done ok with this in the past. 50 cents and a buy I reckon.

I don’t think you’ll get to see 50c by the time Basel III comes round at the end of June (unless we have the BK before then). After that anything with gold/silver in the name should be flying.

Obviously not because I’m a Panther fanboy or anything... 

[DoINeedOne]

Thoughts 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-ordered-by-dutch-court-to-cut-carbon-emissions-11622038961?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

[Option5]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Check the brake lines...lots of kinks and curves, and it only takes a slight distortion (or a heavy handed mechanic) for them to make the brakes bind slightly...I had this issue for ages before I resolved it.

Handbrakes seize on MX5s with alarming regularity.

[Fully Detached]

51 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9fee812f-6975-49ce-915c-aeb25d3dd748
 

By the way everyone, you have until the 23rd of June to opt out of having your data shared commercially (and beyond). After that date it’s irreversible. I’ve given my form to my GP surgery and opted out on my NHS profile online.

They are sneaking this shit in through the back door.

For those that can’t get behind the paywall:

England’s NHS plans to share patient records with third parties

55m patients have until June 23 to opt out of having their health data scraped into a new database

England’s NHS is preparing to scrape the medical histories of 55m patients, including sensitive information on mental and sexual health, criminal records and abuse, into a database it will share with third parties.

The data collection project, which is the first of its kind, has caused an uproar among privacy campaigners, who say it is “legally problematic”, especially as patients only have a few weeks to opt out of the plan. 

NHS Digital, which runs the health service’s IT systems, confirmed the plan to pool together medical records from every patient in England who is registered with a GP clinic into a single lake that will be available to academic and commercial third parties for research and planning purposes.

Cori Crider, co-founder of Foxglove, a campaign group for digital rights, said: “We all want to see the NHS come out of the pandemic stronger” but noted that the NHS had been “completely silent” on who would have access to the data. 

“Is it pharma companies? The health arm of Google Deepmind? If you ask patients whether they want details of their fertility treatment or abortion, or results of their colonoscopy shared with [those companies], they’re not going to want that,” she said. 

Foxglove has issued a legal letter to the Department of Health and Social Care, questioning the lawfulness of the plans under current data protection laws, and threatening further legal action. 

Rosa Curling, a solicitor at Foxglove, wrote in the letter that she had “serious concerns” about the legality of the move because no explicit consent had been given and “very few members of the public will be aware that the new processing is imminent, directly affecting their personal medical data”.

Patients have until June 23 to opt out by filling in a form and taking it to their GP before their historical records will become a permanent and irreversible part of the new data set. Patients who opt out after the deadline can stop future data from being funnelled into the new system. 

The plan to create a new data set was announced by Matt Hancock, health secretary, in early April and publicised mainly on blogs on the NHS Digital website, and through flyers at GP surgeries, said NHS Digital, which added that the plans had been in the works for three years. 

But Phil Booth, founder of advocacy group MedConfidential, said: “They’re trying to sneak it out, they are giving you six weeks nominally and if you do not act based on web pages on the NHS digital site and some YouTube videos and a few tweets, your entire GP history could have been scraped, never to be deleted.” 

He added that the NHS had “opaque” commercial relationships, often through middlemen, and that it would be difficult to trace who ultimately sees the data. NHS Digital says on its website that it publishes a monthly register of who it has released data to, and whether the data is anonymised or not. 

Data that directly identifies patients will be replaced with unique codes in the new data set, but the NHS will hold the keys to unlock the codes “in certain circumstances, and where there is a valid legal reason”, according to its website. 

NHS Digital said the Information Commissioner’s Office, the UK’s data regulator, had not objected to its plans, and that it was in the process of delivering a data protection impact assessment. 

The plan comes following an attempt in 2013 to extract GP records into a central database, called the Care.data programme, which was abandoned in 2016 after complaints about confidentiality and commercial use.

Many thanks for that - just opted out this morning. Turns out there are 2 different types of opt out, one of which can be done online and the other which requires the receptionist at your GP surgery to correctly take your details and remember to opt you out when she's a little less buy. Confirmation? Oh, um, I don't know, I suppose we could forward you the confirmation email that we receive when we've done it?

Why, it's almost as if they don't want us to opt out.

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Thoughts 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-ordered-by-dutch-court-to-cut-carbon-emissions-11622038961?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

Only applies to the operations in Dutch woke land I believe.

[Bobthebuilder]

54 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Thanks - I am certainly in the "heavy handed mechanic" category myself, so I'll have a look. Current thought is that the front caliper pistons just need pulling out and replacing and new seals putting in there. I'm trying not to spend too much because I need to get it welded for the MOT, so I want to make sure it passes before I start spending too much on it, so double checking the lines seems like the least expensive place to start.

Just dropped my MX5 off for the MOT this morning.

51 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I don’t think you’ll get to see 50c by the time Basel III comes round at the end of June (unless we have the BK before then). After that anything with gold/silver in the name should be flying.

Obviously not because I’m a Panther fanboy or anything... 

They hit 25c last March time. 4 bagger for the brave.

[Fully Detached]

2 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Handbrakes seize on MX5s with alarming regularity.

We've had a MK3 for 7 years and never had a problem with brakes or handbrake other than the usual wear and tear. This "new" one has been sat on a driveway for a long time which I think will throw up some other problems - I've already had the full interior apart to dry it out after finding that the roof drains were blocked. Fortunately the water collected in the driver's side so I think the ECU should be OK, but we nearly had to call the coastguard to rescue me when I first jumped in the driver's seat.

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Just dropped my MX5 off for the MOT this morning.

See, I already knew you were a man of impeccable style and taste, but the proofs just keep on coming  - whatcha got?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

whatcha got?

Bought it as a track car, now a daily driver. NC- mk3 2lt 16v, hard top.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

by the time Basel III comes round

 how is Basel III gonna impact gold? thanks

[nirvana]

15 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Bought it as a track car, now a daily driver. NC- mk3 2lt 16v, hard top.

cool, that's the one I nearly bought from Japan after I sold a rather bonkers Impreza STI

I should stop looking at BMs, you still can't beat something lightweight methinks....skinny blokes in skinny cars with skinny birds FTW! 

[Fully Detached]

29 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Bought it as a track car, now a daily driver. NC- mk3 2lt 16v, hard top.

Very nice - our NC is the 1.8 but still drives beautifully. The NB is the 1.8 16v, and um, is likely to get turbo'd...  

[DoINeedOne]

We are delighted to send you the 15th edition of our annual In Gold We Trust report, titled “Monetary Climate Change”.

Gold is on everyone's lips again, and the question that now occupies us is: will inflation really be "transitory"? This year’s report takes a deep dive into this question, as well as a whole spectrum of other topics.

They include:

• The status quo of gold: price developments in the last 12 months, the most important influencing factors, and trends in the gold market
• Facets of “monetary climate change”:
  • Why the current surge in inflation is not temporary
  • Inflation as a risk to equity and bond markets
  • Government debt reduction through “yield curve control”
• Are commodities at the start of a new supercycle?
• De-dollarization 2021: Europe buys gold, China opens a digital front
• Analysis of a combined Gold/Bitcoin investment strategy
• The silver decade
• A deep dive into the undervaluation of the mining sector

In other chapter of the report you can find:

• An interview with Russell Napier on why he has switched from the deflation to the inflation camp
• Legendary blogger FOFOA’s views on the Nixon shock
• US analyst Lyn Alden’s guest editorial on the long-term debt cycle
• Robert Breedlove’s answer the question "What is money?"

English:
Full Version - English  (346 pages)
Compact Version - English (24 pages)

[arrow]

48 minutes ago, nirvana said:

 how is Basel III gonna impact gold? thanks

From Sprott Money,

 

"NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio)

the NSFR is another facet of new Basel 3 regulations that are being implemented worldwide in response to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 to ensure that financial institutions have sufficient high-quality assets to weather a similar crisis in the future without having to resort to bailouts. In essence, these new regulations are designed to mitigate the risk of bankruptcies such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

 

With respect to Gold specifically, the NSFR will significantly penalize Bullion Banks holding Gold in unallocated accounts relative to fully allocated accounts. Unallocated means you have a 'share' in a certain amount of Gold whereas allocated means that you own the rights to a specific amount of Gold. Unallocated Gold can be leveraged, loaned out, more than once, creating multiple claims on the same amount of Gold. Allocated cannot. In other words, the Banks will be penalized for unallocated Gold holdings and rewarded for holding the actual physical metal on an unlevered basis. Simply put, it makes it expensive for the Banks to engage in Gold lending or hypothecation. Gold lending is widely considered one of the principal tools used to short Gold. Eliminating or drastically reducing this activity therefore makes it more difficult to short the metal and is therefore bullish."

 

Sprott also, in their opnion believe (dyor)

 

"This is one of many reasons why Gold has been under pressure for 8 months now. In anticipation of this new regulation, Banks would clearly not want to be short the metal. They are motivated to get out of their short positions and even get long. This is what they have been trying to do since the peak in open interest in January 2020

Open interest has now fallen to its lowest level since May 2019, when Gold hit a low of ~1269. Note that the last peak in open interest was in August 2020 and Gold has been going down ever since.

Banks loathe to take a loss on their short positions so they have been waiting for lower prices to cover these positions. They have accelerated this process since January, which is reflected in the drop in open interest since then, and are far closer to at least being neutral. Reportedly, JP Morgan is already net neutral to long. Now it's just the remaining Bullion Banks trying to get out of their short positions ahead of the new rules to be implemented and the expected rally to begin soon.

 

This is just further evidence that the bottom is or close."

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Only applies to the operations in Dutch woke land I believe.

It looks like it applies worldwide. Shares down today, but I wouldn't have thought it's necessarily particularly bad news for Shell, they were already aiming for reductions in any case, may have to buy more carbon credits.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/what-dutch-court-carbon-emissions-ruling-means-shell-2021-05-26/

 

 

 

[Option5]

1 hour ago, Fully Detached said:

See, I already knew you were a man of impeccable style and taste, but the proofs just keep on coming  - whatcha got?

1990, UK car in red. 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Only applies to the operations in Dutch woke land I believe.

If you've ever driven around Europoort and Rotterdam, you will see about 20KM worth of refineries and chemical plants pumping out god know what into the atmosphere.

Holland really needs to close most of this and let the Russians and Chinese do it for them, to save the planet.

[stoobs]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9fee812f-6975-49ce-915c-aeb25d3dd748
 

By the way everyone, you have until the 23rd of June to opt out of having your data shared commercially (and beyond). After that date it’s irreversible. I’ve given my form to my GP surgery and opted out on my NHS profile online.

They are sneaking this shit in through the back door.

For those that can’t get behind the paywall:

England’s NHS plans to share patient records with third parties

55m patients have until June 23 to opt out of having their health data scraped into a new database

England’s NHS is preparing to scrape the medical histories of 55m patients, including sensitive information on mental and sexual health, criminal records and abuse, into a database it will share with third parties.

The data collection project, which is the first of its kind, has caused an uproar among privacy campaigners, who say it is “legally problematic”, especially as patients only have a few weeks to opt out of the plan. 

NHS Digital, which runs the health service’s IT systems, confirmed the plan to pool together medical records from every patient in England who is registered with a GP clinic into a single lake that will be available to academic and commercial third parties for research and planning purposes.

Cori Crider, co-founder of Foxglove, a campaign group for digital rights, said: “We all want to see the NHS come out of the pandemic stronger” but noted that the NHS had been “completely silent” on who would have access to the data. 

“Is it pharma companies? The health arm of Google Deepmind? If you ask patients whether they want details of their fertility treatment or abortion, or results of their colonoscopy shared with [those companies], they’re not going to want that,” she said. 

Foxglove has issued a legal letter to the Department of Health and Social Care, questioning the lawfulness of the plans under current data protection laws, and threatening further legal action. 

Rosa Curling, a solicitor at Foxglove, wrote in the letter that she had “serious concerns” about the legality of the move because no explicit consent had been given and “very few members of the public will be aware that the new processing is imminent, directly affecting their personal medical data”.

Patients have until June 23 to opt out by filling in a form and taking it to their GP before their historical records will become a permanent and irreversible part of the new data set. Patients who opt out after the deadline can stop future data from being funnelled into the new system. 

The plan to create a new data set was announced by Matt Hancock, health secretary, in early April and publicised mainly on blogs on the NHS Digital website, and through flyers at GP surgeries, said NHS Digital, which added that the plans had been in the works for three years. 

But Phil Booth, founder of advocacy group MedConfidential, said: “They’re trying to sneak it out, they are giving you six weeks nominally and if you do not act based on web pages on the NHS digital site and some YouTube videos and a few tweets, your entire GP history could have been scraped, never to be deleted.” 

He added that the NHS had “opaque” commercial relationships, often through middlemen, and that it would be difficult to trace who ultimately sees the data. NHS Digital says on its website that it publishes a monthly register of who it has released data to, and whether the data is anonymised or not. 

Data that directly identifies patients will be replaced with unique codes in the new data set, but the NHS will hold the keys to unlock the codes “in certain circumstances, and where there is a valid legal reason”, according to its website. 

NHS Digital said the Information Commissioner’s Office, the UK’s data regulator, had not objected to its plans, and that it was in the process of delivering a data protection impact assessment. 

The plan comes following an attempt in 2013 to extract GP records into a central database, called the Care.data programme, which was abandoned in 2016 after complaints about confidentiality and commercial use.

Are there any downsides to opting out?

Say if you're referred to a consultant by your GP, will the consultant no longer have your medical history if you've opted out?

How about if you're away in a different part of the UK on holiday and need medical attention, will the local A&E or whatever still be able to access your records if opted-out?

[planit]

32 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

It looks like it applies worldwide. Shares down today, but I wouldn't have thought it's necessarily particularly bad news for Shell, they were already aiming for reductions in any case, may have to buy more carbon credits.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/what-dutch-court-carbon-emissions-ruling-means-shell-2021-05-26/

 

 

 

Quote

Intensity-based targets measure the amount of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy produced. That means that absolute emissions can rise with growing production, even if the headline intensity metric falls

So they can still sell the same amount of oil as long as they expand renewables to 80% of their fossil output energy wise.

They can also convert some oil to Nat gas to help marginally but just increasing Nat gas will just cause more clean energy to be needed.

They can also buy or acquire carbon sync tech.

 

Or they could  buy a nuclear company  

 

Looks to me like they should sit tight until 2027 and then just buy up all the green companies that have had trillions poured in for pink unicorn promises. This is now a waiting game, the oil company management need to make loads of loud noises that they are doing the right thing whilst being patient.

In the medium term they will make so much cash on the higher prices that they will have gigantic war chests to do what they want.

Conclusion: Shell have just been forced by law to become the biggest Energy company by 2030

Or the activists could get their own way, Exxon and BP get shut down and Russia/MiddleEast control everything. If I was China I would be pushing this with all my tentacles. (Just realised GS and China have a lot in common, no wonder they have just made a deal)

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, BurntBread said:

While there may be a shift in the philosophical zeitgeist, I wonder whether the real reason is something more mundane? Specifically, people feel in their bones that they are getting screwed over, but can't understand quite how or why.                                                             It's a little thing, but noticed a change in the way folk talk about things they enjoy; for example being dogmatic about white chocolate being disgusting and dark chocolate being the only real thing. There is a similar polarisation with technologies, and this idea of Apple "fan-boys" or Windows "fan-boys" has gained prominence for a long time, as though those companies don't have marketing departments of their own.

I believe the discourse everywhere, including in the public square, has moved from "I think" to "you should". My guess is this is the natural irritability of mankind as the pips are being gradually squeaked.

Apologies for the thread derailment, but i think there is some macro here, in terms of time-line expectations for when the current zeitgeist will turn around - i.e. don't hold your breath!!  

 

Actually Burntbread, i would agree with your examples, they are part of what i was attempting to say.

For example, when you say 'people feel in their bones that they are getting screwed over, but can't understand quite how or why...'. 

Yes, in a nutshell, exactly that - changes in thinking/how we choose to perceive the world, occur because the brain is continually seeking to make sense out of the world, both in terms of physiological input (i.e. optical illusions); or in epistemological terms as societies move away from belief systems to new ones, because the old ideas are no longer sufficient to navigate (morally/politically) the world around them. So, for example the moral shock reaction of WW1 led on to the adoption of socialist/fascist ideas. 

The above is very fundamental but pretty broad brush. And like most subjects, its more layered than this. Anyway, Jonathan Haidt's book: 'The Righteous Mind', describes really well why people jump to impugn other's motivations/the split between left and right/prevalence of 'i feel' vs 'i think', etc. He explains how personality informs our politics (J. Peterson is very 'nuanced' about this whole subject, saying for thousands of years women were excluded from institutional decision making, and that now 'we are running the experiment'!).   

    

Btw, my favorite is 'white chocolate', but to be pedantic, plus to throw a real philosophical clanger into the works, its not actually a chocolate!!

[JMD]

13 hours ago, Loki said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/change-coming-engine-no-1-wins-two-exxon-board-seats

Just as @DurhamBorn said, more confirmation

I own some Exxon. Does the investment case for owning Exxon change because of this alarming boardroom woke behavior? Or are all the oilies doing/set to do very similar in future? 

[Option5]

Just now, JMD said:

I own some Exxon. Does the investment case for owning Exxon change because of this alarming boardroom woke behavior? Or are all the oilies doing/set to do very similar in future? 

All the ones I deal with are the same, noisily spouting their Green credentials and Woke practices while quietly carrying on as usual in the background.