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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


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Iv been taking myself away from it all a bit and doing jobs that need doing and just enjoying seeing my family etc.Im very worried about where we are heading for my families future.Mostly what is happ

Great interview by David Hunter, posted earlier in the week by @The Idiocrat. Lots of information, including timings and targets. I have posted below my summary table, and I'll add a rough transcript

Just wanted to wish everyone a happy xmas and for all adding their thoughts and knowledge to the thread this year.I think we can safely say without any doubt the thread has proved itself and a lot of

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nirvana
3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I told you they would shock the market

yeah it'll defo need a shock after suffering a heart attack if rates rise!!! Still can't see it happening myself......they'll reverse decision after a massive market crash.....then all the FED members will get a massoof payoff from their Wall St paymasters ;)

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DurhamBorn
Just now, nirvana said:

yeah it'll defo need a shock after suffering a heart attack if rates rise!!! Still can't see it happening myself......they'll reverse decision after a massive market crash.....then all the FED members will get a massoof payoff from their Wall St paymasters ;)

The fact is they are thinking about it though.They need to keep fiscal pumping going while at the same time trying to hold inflation in the 3% zone,this is about real rates ,i think they are aiming for 2% negative.Huge risk for the Fed now,if that liquidity enters the economy at once big inflation.

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Cattle Prod

Looking like the Indian coronavirus wave is topping out, naturally, and without lockdowns, at about one tenth the per capita size of the UK or US ones. 5 days in a row of dropping cases, and 4 in deaths. 7 dma rolling over in cases, starting to curl in deaths. Fingers crossed for India, I'm sure at risk poor people there have no chance.

Whatever are they going to going to panic about now?

image.png.cfe37ca38da16713f9162b2c97645f36.png

image.png.fa8ec1ee923193a530ea313c414ee938.png

 

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Castlevania
22 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Whatever are they going to going to panic about now?

 

They can go back to their favourites of Climate change and White supremacy

 

 

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planit
Posted (edited)

@Cattle Prod

I have been watching that every day and agree, today looks like it might end on ~355k so flat on the figure 7 days ago. 

From there we only need another day around the same level for the 7 day average to start turning down.

This is an earlier peak than everyone is expecting and I also hope for a faster drop.

The deaths peaking at the same time as cases is interesting but it would be a good bonus if deaths start falling too.

 

image.png.a4e042a414dacf4c939d3df1e55ba8f5.png

World cases have also rolled over and with India falling the decline should accelerate. Markets should be very happy about this and Europe (inc UK) all talking about summer flights this week.

 

Edited by planit
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PrincessDrac
Posted (edited)

.

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

They forgot to tell the algos Yellen isn't the Fed any more and can't do a thing about interest rates. She can talk about it all she wants.

Link     NYT Link.


The monkey hammer was deployed on time and on Budget thanks to Yellen saying the opposite to what she said 48 hours ago.....just as Gold and Silver were minutes away from breaching the $1800 and $27 levels respectively....

Funny that eh? How to move markets without actually buying/selling anything - pull a quote out of your arse and let the Algos do it for you with someone else's money!

The verbal tool is one of only 3 tools they have left (other than YCC and ZIRP). The tool box is getting empty.

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Posted (edited)

Quick crypto update, LINK now on the bull run, on the way to $50. ETH 2.0 now looks like it’s ascertaining it’s dominance going forward to all the rivals negating gas fees etc. Big things are coming in combination with Chainlink. 

https://medium.com/offchainlabs/scalable-low-cost-computation-of-ethereum-smart-contracts-using-arbitrum-on-the-chainlink-8985c6542d4e

C867BEC5-6D26-4E46-B787-7F01557C5B0D.jpeg

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Majorpain
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The fact is they are thinking about it though.They need to keep fiscal pumping going while at the same time trying to hold inflation in the 3% zone,this is about real rates ,i think they are aiming for 2% negative.Huge risk for the Fed now,if that liquidity enters the economy at once big inflation.

I'm interested to see if they can actually do anything to control it, a lot of the inflation is cost push off the commodity prices, not just demand pull consumer side.  If you couple that with the unprecedented scenario of the past year, high household savings and lockdown there is no guarantee that the average person is not going to spending a lot of time and money enjoying life to the full over the summer.

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Cattle Prod
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, sancho panza said:

4) if demand normalises as predicted then spare capacity gone by 2024

5) long cycle projects not been funded since 2016 and given they can take 4-7 years to come online means further supply restrictions.

6) spare capacity as per predictions around 10.5 mn.it sounds like he's taking Saudi spare capacity at face value,which you've warned us against CP(but would appreciate your take whether I've read that right)

Just catching up. Yes, Kao is taking spare capacity at face value. In fairness, finance people have to, as they have no way to qualify it. Some banks hire ex oil industry geos to help with this, but they are second or third rate and we run rings around them if we want to. Without sounding biased, the only people you'll find suggesting this are active industry operator subsurface professionals. I still can't believe no one has noticed that Saudi is cycling production, or that Mexico is in steep structural decline (see whats happened since I said that a year ago) etc. It's subtle stuff. I pinged him on Twitter about it, he was interested and is probably looking into with his team. He's absolutely right about 5), I've said exactly that here. But a littke bullish. I could name you a bunch of projects that took 10 years. But he understands the lag and inelasticity of conventional production. $200 oil won't get those projects on line faster. But thats ok, because we have fast and nimble shale production. Right? Right...? Until it doesn't respond.

This won't all happen at once in 2021. But this structural shift is 100% guaranteed. As he pointed out, we are six years into capital starvation. We have maybe one year left of projects sanctioned 7 years ago when oil was over $100.

One of the last, Guyana, the biggest find, 9bn barrels and counting, in decades, was a very high risk exploration well sanctioned in 2014. Many, many companies passed over it as too risky, after years of $100 oil economics to screen it on. Exxon had the balls and muscle to drill it into the 2015 crash, thats the last one. They turned it around fast, but development has some problems, maybe rushed.

Not a chance it would pass now at $60 price deck. And wouldn't pump first oil till the end of the cycle.

A few others like Sea Lion on the shelf (since 2012) but aren't big enough to affect world supply.

Edited by Cattle Prod
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Barnsey

Yellen knows exactly what to say and when, nuff said.

Here at home:

 

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DurhamBorn
36 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I'm interested to see if they can actually do anything to control it, a lot of the inflation is cost push off the commodity prices, not just demand pull consumer side.  If you couple that with the unprecedented scenario of the past year, high household savings and lockdown there is no guarantee that the average person is not going to spending a lot of time and money enjoying life to the full over the summer.

I dont think they can,but they need to look like they are trying,like you say we are seeing huge cost push inflation.A crank up means everyone else will push to keep up.

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Tingles

Regarding the tokenisation of stocks (and other assets such as real estate), Binance is now offering 'stock tokens' for COIN, TSLA, MSTR, MSFT AND AAPL.  Interesting times continue.

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23rdian
5 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Regarding the tokenisation of stocks (and other assets such as real estate), Binance is now offering 'stock tokens' for COIN, TSLA, MSTR, MSFT AND AAPL.  Interesting times continue.

Anyone else feel they just can't keep up with this coin stuff now? 

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Loki
10 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Anyone else feel they just can't keep up with this coin stuff now? 

My Dad asked me about dogecoin earlier

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Tingles
16 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Anyone else feel they just can't keep up with this coin stuff now? 

Think less 'coin stuff' and more how blockchain, smart contract and tokenisation technologies will affect participation, purchase/sell and storage in financial markets.  Maybe also consider how these technologies may relate to future wealth preservation and growth.

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23rdian
Just now, Tingles said:

Think less 'coin stuff' and more how blockchain, smart contract and tokenisation technologies will affect participation, purchase/sell and storage in financial markets.  Maybe also consider how these technologies may relate to future wealth preservation and growth.

I think I'm just nostalgic for the early days, not been the same since that ETH came along for me.

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Lightscribe
1 hour ago, 23rdian said:

I think I'm just nostalgic for the early days, not been the same since that ETH came along for me.

People will be nostalgic for a lot more going forwards. This is a one way train and people will start to realise we’re not in Kansas anymore.

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Posted (edited)

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/04/economy/manufacturing-jobs-economy/index.html
 

People have realised how much they can get on welfare/stimulus and the Emperor’s new clothes have been exposed.  

How many factories/businesses will be able to afford the the increase in the cost of labour? Some will be able to pass it on to the consumer, many (like in the service industry) will go under combined with the post pandemic losses. 

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Lightscribe
8 hours ago, Loki said:

Hunter is a savage, I just spat Peroni everywhere xDxDxDxD

 

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/70b-meme-coin-dogecoin-skyrockets-half-dollar-doge-eats-into-btc-dominance/

I’m wondering if David Hunter has missed the mark on the melt up.

The SP500 not liking the Yellens interest rate comments yesterday. As more weight confirms direction to interest rate hikes going into next year, maybe this is the SP500 top?

With the likes of DOGE now at a higher market cap than Santander and Nintendo, crypto has seen the melt up from retail investors instead....

F566C766-1849-44D8-822E-C229CC80F6E4.jpeg

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Wahoo

70% of Doge is owned by 69 addresses.   It was created as a joke.

These 69 individuals will dump the coin and thousands of new investors will get seriously burnt.

It will give regulators the excuse they need to impose draconian regulation on the industry....a reason for a massive confrontation between banks, Govts and crypto.

Musk is irresponsible tweeting this shit. 

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