Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

Biden’s Budget Proposal Raises Annual Spending to $6 Trillion

Everything goes BRRRRRR especially crypto! It ain't ending anytime soon 

[Barnsey]

25 minutes ago, nirvana said:

nice motor but is that against like a M135i 'xDrive' with a RRP of £40k lol?

edit hilarious if you write 'xD' without quotes it converts to smiley

Hefty 25% military discount so I don't think they're making much out of it. WBAC also offering about the same. He's genuinely surprised as expected to take a hit of at least £3k

[nirvana]

right I've discovered Bitcoin has options expiry now! This is serious shit guys, it's not going away!

Options man,  that's Goldman Suchs and JP Morgan land, the big boys are playing seriously! 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bears-dominate-friday-s-2-1b-btc-options-expiry-with-a-585m-lead

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Mate is getting offered the same to px his used 140i as he paid for it last year, first I've ever heard that happen. Model dependent I guess according to chip shortages etc. Waiting list for a new A4 Avant about 6 months now.

 

People can still buy ordinary second hand cars for a relative price to last year; its seemingly the price of fancy ones that are allegedly a little more. Seems like a 1st world problem to me. 

I'm just back from the shops and had to reverse my car so it was about 50cm from the vehicle already there, which was some great big 4x4. The fat woman got out of it and said i can't park like that as she'll never get out. So i then pointed out there is about 10 foot behind her to that sports car.

To which she replied, but i can't see it when i'm reversing .... I despair, i really do! 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I've done a bit of reading on the options front but I really need to get into it more. 

 

I'm like you, I like the long term stuff but I also need a little short term action. 

I've read your post twice, and am still not convinced you are talking macro investing...!!! 

[Option5]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Ive read one article where it was claiming Mini Coopers were going up in price, but they are a relatively scarce vehicle.

Some are, my R53 Cooper S was a £1500 car last year, now £2000-2500 based on the mileage and spec.

It makes no sense at all.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, janch said:

If it does what it did in 2008 it could be a winner:

Do ETC's work same as ETF's? e.g. in the above fund, if the price went from $6 to $12 and the investor then sold, would he make a $6 profit (100% return)? I assume yes, but not sure if commodity market funds work the same as equities.

The reason i ask is i am not sure what the above $5.95 chart price relates to, given WTI is currently approx. $66. 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Thanks - I am certainly in the "heavy handed mechanic" category myself, so I'll have a look. Current thought is that the front caliper pistons just need pulling out and replacing and new seals putting in there. I'm trying not to spend too much because I need to get it welded for the MOT, so I want to make sure it passes before I start spending too much on it, so double checking the lines seems like the least expensive place to start.

And don't forget the wire coathanger down the roof drain, otherwise you end up with your own mobile convertible swimming pool :-)

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

Bob

Nirv, thanks for that post, appreciate it.

I am no trader, I couldn't do what you do. What I am good at is spotting trends / patterns longer term in anything, music, food, fashion etc. I try to use this on stocks but because of the style a typical "trade" could last 12 months, way to boring for you.

My plumbing apprentice bought 2 Bitcoins in around 2009 ish, we used to talk about economics, house prices, he is a clever lad. I was going to buy 2 as well but did not bother, I think they were £400 each then. He has still got them partly my fault as I told him never to sell them, leave them for your daughter, if they go to zero so what? If they end up a billion cool. Is holding BTC for twelve years count as trading?

PS. The MX5 flew through its MOT this morning as it always seems to. Bulletproof them things.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

We've had a MK3 for 7 years and never had a problem with brakes or handbrake other than the usual wear and tear. This "new" one has been sat on a driveway for a long time which I think will throw up some other problems - I've already had the full interior apart to dry it out after finding that the roof drains were blocked. Fortunately the water collected in the driver's side so I think the ECU should be OK, but we nearly had to call the coastguard to rescue me when I first jumped in the driver's seat.

See, I already knew you were a man of impeccable style and taste, but the proofs just keep on coming  - whatcha got?

Just seen this after my last comment :-) :-) :-)

[Option5]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

And don't forget the wire coathanger down the roof drain, otherwise you end up with your own mobile convertible swimming pool :-)

I bought a Trombone cleaning brush for cleaning out the drain holes. Really simple and effective.

£8.99 off Amazon.

[nirvana]

19 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Is holding BTC for twelve years count as trading?

 

sure bro! who cares if we call it investing/trading/gambling even  as long as we're all making a few shekels and having fun at the same time, bring it on! a mate just gave me some moroccan mint to plant and I'm like a dog with 2 dicks! I'll trade him for some cherries tomorrow.........from the neighbours garden cos he's never there! 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Unless you're doing bangernomics, it beats me why anyone buys used cars private or from trade. 

 

I bought my Range Rover Westminster 4.4 V8 Twin Turbo last month for 6k on copart, needed new bumper, wing and a light. 

 

On the road for 8.5k and it's worth 14k

 

Triumph scrambler 1200 xe for 4.5k, on the road for 7k, worth 9.5k

 

Infiniti QX 70 for 5.5k, on the road for 8k, worth 14k. 

 

Every day you see things going through for ridiculously low prices.

 

I'm seriously thinking of setting up a side hustle for when the asbestos hiding is quiet. 

 

Anyway, this definitely counts as thread derailment so I'll shut the fuck about cars now. 🤐

[ThoughtCriminal]

EXXON like a bit of the old debt don't they?!?! 😳

[arrow]

K+S (sdf) is being given a helping hand by the EU by temporarily taking out one of its competitors. The EU is looking to impose sanctions on Belarus for political naughtiness. The sanctions would, amongst other things, take out Belarus's potash exports to the EU. Step up K+S to help with the Potash supply shortfall, explaining its continous share price rise. Possibly fall as well if the EU don't agree on sactions

 

"The European Union will look at hitting Belarus's big potash exports as well as its oil and financial sectors with new sanctions, as punishment for forcing down a Ryanair flight to arrest a journalist, EU foreign ministers said.

European leaders have described Sunday's incident, in which a flight between EU members Greece and Lithuania was pressed to land in Minsk and a 26-year-old exiled dissident and 23-year-old student were arrested, as state piracy. They have promised to impose serious consequences.

Foreign ministers gathering in the Portuguese capital on Thursday said they were looking at targeting sectors that play a central role in the Belarus economy, to inflict real punishment on President Alexander Lukashenko.

"The hijacking of the plane and the detention of the two passengers is completely unacceptable, and we will start discussing implementation of the sectorial and economic sanctions," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters in Lisbon.

Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said: "The keyword, I think, is potash. We know that Belarus produces very much potash, it is one of the biggest suppliers globally, and I think it would hurt Lukashenko very much if we managed something in this area."

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the EU should consider hitting the oil sector, while Germany's Heiko Maas spoke of measures to target financial transactions, which diplomats said would probably involve preventing the EU from lending to Belarusian banks.

Maas said Belarusian bond sales could be targeted too.

"We are talking about using financing means ... particularly the question to what extent Belarus should be allowed in future to issue bonds, by the state or the central bank, in Europe," he told reporters.

Exports of potash - a potassium-rich salt used in fertilizer - are one of the major sources of foreign currency for Belarus, and state firm Belaruskali says it produces 20 percent of the world's supply.

The EU statistics agency said the bloc imported 1.2 billion euros ($1.5 billion) worth of chemicals including potash from Belarus last year, as well as more than 1 billion euros worth of crude oil and related products such as fuel and lubricants.

So far this week, Europe has already moved to bar its airlines from using Belarus air space and to keep Belarusian planes out of its skies. But finding a package of sanctions that would change the behaviour of Lukashenko has proven difficult.

Since cracking down on pro-democracy protests last year, he largely ignored three previous rounds of EU sanctions and comparable U.S. measures, mainly blacklists that bar officials from travelling to or doing business in Europe and the United States.

Ministers in Lisbon said new sanctions would include a fourth round of travel bans and asset freezes. They are aiming for agreement on June 21 when they meet in Luxembourg.

Western countries are demanding free elections in Belarus. Germany's Maas said sanctions should continue to be tightened, at least until more than 400 political prisoners there are released.

"As long as this is not the case, the EU cannot relent in paving the way for fresh sanctions," he said."

[arrow]

12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

EXXON like a bit of the old debt don't they?!?! 😳

They should be easily able to deal with it at current oil prices

[Bricormortis]

29 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Unless you're doing bangernomics, it beats me why anyone buys used cars private or from trade. 

 

I bought my Range Rover Westminster 4.4 V8 Twin Turbo last month for 6k on copart, needed new bumper, wing and a light. 

 

On the road for 8.5k and it's worth 14k

 

Triumph scrambler 1200 xe for 4.5k, on the road for 7k, worth 9.5k

 

Infiniti QX 70 for 5.5k, on the road for 8k, worth 14k. 

 

Every day you see things going through for ridiculously low prices.

 

I'm seriously thinking of setting up a side hustle for when the asbestos hiding is quiet. 

 

Anyway, this definitely counts as thread derailment so I'll shut the fuck about cars now. 🤐

What are the implications when you want to sell ? Do you have to declare its category history, like yes its damage repaired ?

[arrow]

15 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Guys be careful with this stuff it will never go back to 2008 price because it decays. That's why it was 10 the last time we had $65 but 6 now. Designed for short term holds.

What's your take on the Exxon director vote, cattleprod? Two Engine no.1 candidates elected, possibly a third? Backed by Blackrock, assorted insititutions and pension funds.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, Bricormortis said:

What are the implications when you want to sell ? Do you have to declare its category history, like yes its damage repaired ?

You don't have to, but I do as it's a bit of a shitty trick to pull on someone. 

 

I mean, strictly speaking its caveat emptor, and barely anyone bothers HPI-ing, but I show the before and after pics as well as declaring it's a CAT S/N. 

 

You get 10-15% below straight value. Used to be much higher but nobody really cares like they used to.

 

Gone are the days of the dreaded cut and shut. 

[arrow]

17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

My take on this is that board members who want to force XOM to be green will be replaced quickly by board members who want cash when it starts pumping like a river. In $100 oil times we came under massive pressure to stop paying debt, borrow more and buy any shite project going with the promise of more barrels and cash...because everyone was doing it.

It was ever thus.

Good to hear. The amount I've got in oil and xom in particular, invaluable to hear from an insider

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Many thanks for that - just opted out this morning. Turns out there are 2 different types of opt out, one of which can be done online and the other which requires the receptionist at your GP surgery to correctly take your details and remember to opt you out when she's a little less buy. Confirmation? Oh, um, I don't know, I suppose we could forward you the confirmation email that we receive when we've done it?

Why, it's almost as if they don't want us to opt out.

you got a link for that FD?

On 26/05/2021 at 18:56, planit said:

There is loads of shale that is economic at $200 .

The difference now is they (the Climate crowd) will not let banks lend to develop it, they won't let oil companies develop anything, they are now trying to make the oil companies pay for all the past global warming. It's insane.

As oil goes from $70 -> $100 -> $150 -> $200 I assume they will keep shouting

Once oil starts going from 

$200 -> $300 -> $400+ I assume something breaks, either everyone's economy or people starving or they shut up and start trying to get more oil as quick as possible. Perhaps a combination of all three.

A spike might go up and then straight down but it certainly fits the criteria for the BK that is talked about here.

 

Anyone got a prediction when the markets will realise there is going to be a supply pinch?

My guess - If the pinch is in 2 years time then it will be when projections forwards can see it, perhaps Nov/Dec this year or Q1 next year if it takes a while longer for travel to get going worldwide.

It's almost as if they're trying everything they can to create the biggest price squeeze in oil the world has ever seen.

Sub zero WTI last year,the Woke agenda cutting at boards looking to explore etc etc.

Goldman obviously still building their position.

[sancho panza]

47 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

My take on this is that board members who want to force XOM to be green will be replaced quickly by board members who want cash when it starts pumping like a river. In $100 oil times we came under massive pressure to stop paying debt, borrow more and buy any shite project going with the promise of more barrels and cash...because everyone was doing it.

It was ever thus.

what I am struggling to understand is the following

WTI at $66 finds our local heroes

 

Shell has really failed to track teh black stuff higher since the october lows.I would say that as we're long and I msut admit to still buying them.

[sancho panza]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know, but perhaps your die hard oil investor doesn't like the woke crap. I heard 'remind me to sell my Shell shares' today from a senior guy in work (as a comment on their shareholder nonsense, not because he is a genius investor). But I suspect it'll all even out, remember how XOM was the laggard in the last run up. Also, Shell cutting their divi was a huge mistake, and I sold some when they did. There was an army of pensioners out there who considered Shell and BP as bonds with set coupons. They will not come back easily.

Fwiw it looks like we are getting a weekly close above the 13yr resistance line on WTI from 2008. Fake out to smash it next week maybe, but there it is. 

Edit:

I just noticed 12 month spreads jumped today too. Something is stirring out there.

Edit edit:

So has copper 

Edit edit edit:

Today is Thursday not Friday arggghhh check back this time tomorrow for the above. It's because I went into the office today and don't intend dowing much work tomorrow, sorry!!

quick question,is the backwardation getting increasing or is it flat or the same.

 

I only ask because Micahel Kao was saying it can take twelve motnhs to see price hikes post backwardation and I'm presumming that's from when it first starts.

 

fwiw on shell versus the rest I think you're right,my policy is always to buy the laggard even if it's BP.I had a nice little set of optiosn trades in Feb(i think it was ) when they were at 260 and the rest much higher.

[Loki]

I bought more RDSB today FWIW

[Hancock]

 

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

And don't forget the wire coathanger down the roof drain, otherwise you end up with your own mobile convertible swimming pool :-)

You can also use coathangers for DIY abortions if you've a bottle of gin handy ... another DOSBODS money saving tip for y'all!