Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[janch]

Not sure what to say about the above as I've also had similar dilemmas and have somehow muddled through.  Yes you can get benefits when losing a job.  I think @DurhamBornis the expert here.  I've walked out of jobs on more than one occasion and lived on savings for a month or two and didn't claim during that time.  Maybe I should have done.  I think DB has said they never check to see if you've been sacked or given up yourself.  I never put that to the test.  Also I had savings over their limit but I don't know if they check that either.

I suppose the best solution is to have some savings under their limit and claim if you leave a job but you don't get much as a single person.  Maybe it is time to buy that house! 

I think in your position I'd start viewing houses to see what you could get and when they hear you have cash they will be falling over themselves to sell to you!  At least that way you will feel you are trying to achieve something.  If you don't find anything suitable then you've lost nothing and will have gained some insight into the process.

If you like the job and the people it's a pity to leave but you have to think of your health as well. 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

43 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I'm approaching 50 so not young but still a long way from retirement. I could hold on and keep working for another year or two maybe, but probably not another fifteen years, unless it was in a much easier job.

I found it much harder to work full time when I hit 50. Body is just getting tired.

I don't have any advice for you as it's your life / decisions. All I would say is don't work yourself into the ground, no job is worth that.

[CVG]

50 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Got a huge dilemma....

 

Definitely not meant as a recomendation or advice:

I do not think that Pension savings are included when calculating benefits. Only you can decide whether to squirrel away some of your spare cash there.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Only you will know what’s correct for you. However, the benefits system is only generous if you have children, if you’re single then you’ll get ~£75 a week JSA. Which really isn’t much. Do you have any hobbies? Are they expensive? Can they be done if the weather is bad outside? Life on benefits is for most people miserable, because whilst you have time you don’t have the money to regularly partake in the things that you enjoy doing. It’s easy to end up worrying about money. It’s not a life I’d recommend.

 

Your correct he will get fuck all not even housing has he is with his parents.it’s not even worth hiding your cash.however if either parent is off there trotters a bit it might be worth looking at carers allowence you might get about 350 universal credit then if you have limited saveings.and no hastle from the job centre.your also allowed to earn about 130 a week.so that’s about 520 and about 300 carers for 1 shift a week .can you live on 800 a month basicly with zero stress.I must point out if you earn 120 a week you will loose the uc element but saveings does not come into play regarding carers allowence but check just in case

[ThoughtCriminal]

42 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Your correct he will get fuck all not even housing has he is with his parents.it’s not even worth hiding your cash.however if either parent is off there trotters a bit it might be worth looking at carers allowence you might get about 350 universal credit then if you have limited saveings.and no hastle from the job centre.your also allowed to earn about 130 a week.so that’s about 520 and about 300 carers for 1 shift a week .can you live on 800 a month basicly with zero stress.I must point out if you earn 120 a week you will loose the uc element but saveings does not come into play regarding carers allowence but check just in case

I second this. 

 

Really is the easiest route for someone in OP's position. 

 

If his parents have the right kind of illnesses thats the route I'd go. 

[King Penda]

18 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I second this. 

 

Really is the easiest route for someone in OP's position. 

 

If his parents have the right kind of illnesses thats the route I'd go. 

If the x gets the kids back I might do this for a month or two myself.however she could well end up sectioned again once the surport goes.I could put 300 on top for a lodger so at least 1100 .would leave a lot of spare time I think your expected to do about 30 hours a week of careing which means stay at hers 2 nights

[Barnsey]

For reiteration:

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

If the x gets the kids back I might do this for a month or two myself.however she could well end up sectioned again once the surport goes.I could put 300 on top for a lodger so at least 1100 .would leave a lot of spare time I think your expected to do about 30 hours a week of careing which means stay at hers 2 nights

I did it for my dad when I left the prison service and didnt have a clue what I wanted to do. 

 

35 hours a week but they don't check so don't get too hung up on that. 

 

If you can live cheaply you can have a nice little chilled life. 

 

I make really good money now running my own business, but I don't mind saying that there's a lot about my time on CA that I miss. 

 

Went on long hikes every day, spent loads of time reading, found HPC and through that dosbods, before which I knew less than fuck all about money etc. 

[Popuplights]

2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Your correct he will get fuck all not even housing has he is with his parents.it’s not even worth hiding your cash.however if either parent is off there trotters a bit it might be worth looking at carers allowence you might get about 350 universal credit then if you have limited saveings.and no hastle from the job centre.your also allowed to earn about 130 a week.so that’s about 520 and about 300 carers for 1 shift a week .can you live on 800 a month basicly with zero stress.I must point out if you earn 120 a week you will loose the uc element but saveings does not come into play regarding carers allowence but check just in case

Stokie is a fucking goldmine of info. Take heed.

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, PrincessDrac said:

Link To Statement.

Bit of a surprise.

Liberum starts Centamin at 'sell', says shares 30 per cent overvalued.

That's a worry.

Fully intended to sell CEY when it hit £2, but must have been hung over for a few months!

[King Penda]

59 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Stokie is a fucking goldmine of info. Take heed.

That’s roughly but I’m certain you could have 150k and carers is unaffected.uc is tapered after 6k.he could buy a 3 bed outright depending where he is in the uk and rent 2 rooms out and still be a carer and get the 300 ish and still earn 130 a week.but check .that’s another option I could have ie 600 lodgers/300 ish carers/130x4=560 total about 1460 every 28 days and work 1 night a week and have 2 bedrooms available if mum could not cope obviesly after removing the lodgers.however she would cope if I was around or available that much .

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Got a huge dilemma....

I've got 3 problems:

1) Tired of worrying about being left behind by rising house prices, and seeing apparently endless government support driving them up faster than my salary. (Or flip that around: I'm tired of working for a very slowly rising amount of a raplidly devaluing currency; it's the same difference!). Waiting for a HPC seems to be a losing strategy in England. I don't fancy emigrating.

2) Tired of worrying about passive vs active investment, big kahuna bust & bear market, bail-ins, financial repression, woke mob trying to destroy oil companies, counter-party risk, etc, etc.

3) Tired of struggling in my career. Got made redundant from a long term job 4 years ago. Had 3 new jobs since then and found all of them quite stressful. Ended up leaving the first 2 because I was taking too long to complete tasks (not lazy, just really struggled). Been in current job about 9 months. Work seemed extremely difficult for first 6 or 7 months, since then very difficult. Had hoped it would have got easier by now. Done a lot of studying over past 12 months to improve my skills, but that only helps so much. Not sure how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout (maybe a few more weeks or months).

 

I'm worried that if I go off sick with stress (private sector, no sick pay) or get sacked for slow performance, I would then end up burning through savings on basic living costs. Having savings has prevented me from getting any benefits in the past when I've been out of work. Feel like a mug when I read about people who don't work/didn't save getting loads of benefit money from the state. I doubt they suffer the stress that I've suffered over the past few years.

I'm thinking maybe I should buy a house and then it solves problems 1) & 2). Also, if I had a house and no savings, I might be eligible for benefits if I end up out of work (for whatever reason, except maybe quitting voluntarily).

Does anyone know if a single, childless, home-owning man (with little or no savings) would get benefits if out of work?

I'm approaching 50 so not young but still a long way from retirement. I could hold on and keep working for another year or two maybe, but probably not another fifteen years, unless it was in a much easier job.

Currently living cheaply with elderly parents. At current rate of outgoings I could last a long time on my savings (several years at least), but it's taken over 20 years to accumulate them and would be a shame to lose them all on basic living costs, particularly whilst I hear that people who never bothered to save get loads of benefits from the state.

My job is very good technical experience (an opportunity I've waited many years for), the salary is pretty good (40K ish) and the people I work with are great. However, I'm finding the work very tough, and every day is a struggle. Beginning to wonder how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

OK, lets think about the practicalities:-

1. You are finding it difficult in this job but you also found it difficult in the others. What I did pick up on thought is that you have left all of the last three before a two year period. Can you string the current job out for two years?...if you are popular/sociable with people you will be amazed how bad you can be before a company gets rid of you, if you're not its psychologically easy for them as "Nobody liked him anyway"...If you can string it out,

a) it may start to get easier and/or

b) after two years you have employment rights and so to get rid of you they either have to make you redundant (and if they employ someone to replace you within 6 months you can claim unfair dismissal). If they try to dismiss you for poor performance they need to show that they have tried to help you address the situation i.e. training, support etc otherwise once again it an unfair dismissal claim.

 

2. If you hold out/try 1 above you are closer to a potential property crash/prices dropping; we are just over peak prices at the moment and with a worsening economy/dark clouds on the horizon things (and people losing jobs) they are likely to go in one direction. Also given the worsening economy, if you leave a job how likely are you to find another in a recession?.....better waiting for them to sack you, as you can normally string this process out and so get a few extra months if the situation was that bad.

 

3. If you do 1 above you are x years closer to 55, and with most private pensions you can take them early at this age...so a) allowing you to buy your property, and b) have a regular income.

 

Just a thought.

[23rdian]

7 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I found it much harder to work full time when I hit 50. Body is just getting tired.

I don't have any advice for you as it's your life / decisions. All I would say is don't work yourself into the ground, no job is worth that.

I am hopefully about to reduce my hours for the third time. My deductions will have gone to £5k pa in tax and NI to £300ish quid.

I aim to make the same amount as my wage tax free from investment income. I am currently about halfway there.

My take home as a percentage will hopefully go up to more than 90pc and my daily rate will be higher than when I started. 

Fuck your plandemic, fuck working full time for your tiny slave box and fuck paying for your vanity projects and everyone else you threw me under the bus for, I'm opting out you fucks.

 

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I see this a lot and all I can think of is the timescale. Ten years. During which China's purchases dominated commodities. Does none of these highly paid professional finance bods not think back further than that? Or think forwards like how the West needs to rebuild and will be buyers of commodities?

That correlation is going to break, IMO. Astonishing recency bias. Economy may tank but it wont be for a lack of PMI in other parts of the world.

Add to which, as we have said upteen times on here, unless you are looking at India for demand as well, you're ignoring the huge and fast growing demand from 1.5 Billion people...

[arrow]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Agree, said it a while back, they are straight up businessmen too, you can take them at their word, unlike the Chinese. As long as you don't try and screw them...

Russia is playing a long game, and will do very, very well over this cycle. No debt, lots of oil, huge gas reserves in the world, endless timber ... and are buying and mining gold hand over fist. The Ruble is on its way to becoming gold backed, and the hardest fiat currency in the world.

The US really, really shouldn't have used the dollar as a weapon with them.

 

Only wish I'd put more into Gazprom instead of Shell/BP/Xom. Yes, there's political risk but it now has Germany on its side due to nordstream 2

[Barnsey]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I see this a lot and all I can think of is the timescale. Ten years. During which China's purchases dominated commodities. Does none of these highly paid professional finance bods not think back further than that? Or think forwards like how the West needs to rebuild and will be buyers of commodities?

That correlation is going to break, IMO. Astonishing recency bias. Economy may tank but it wont be for a lack of PMI in other parts of the world.

I'm mostly in agreement with you CP over a longer term time horizon, but still remain open to the possibility of a 6-12 month pullback given lag of ROW. Investors may have got a little too excited too soon?

 

[jamtomorrow]

Seeing stagflation come up more and more at the margins of MSM e.g.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-15/We-re-returning-to-the-70s-era-of-social-decay-crime-and-stagflation-Scott-Rothbort.html

So MSM are cottoning on but still not quite on the same page as the thesis of this thread.

Got me wondering ... what *is* it that's different about today's macro set up and/or likely policy response that means we'll get reflation (i.e. inflation + increasing output) rather than a 70s-style stagflation?

[Bobthebuilder]

9 hours ago, 23rdian said:

Fuck your plandemic, fuck working full time for your tiny slave box and fuck paying for your vanity projects and everyone else you threw me under the bus for, I'm opting out you fucks.

Yep, I now work about 10 hours a week, self-employed fixing gas boilers. After expenses, it is around the £12,500 tax limit and building income in SIPP and ISA. F##k em I am not playing any more.

[DurhamBorn]

@Clueless Imbecile im 100% serious about this,have you thought about moving up here to Durham?.

Prices are starting to head higher up here and we will outperform the south by a long way over the cycle,but there is still a window.You can still buy a decent terrace or ex council 3 bed link house here for £75k,and semis in nice areas for £130k.

Your killing yourself for £40k on top.Why not use your savings to buy here for £75k and get a zero stress £10 an hour job,clock out,go home to a paid for house and enjoy life.

Instead of 2.5k a month take home have 1.5k take home but zero morgage,you will live very nicely up here,you can get a pint for £2.30 food is dirt cheap etc etc.If you have higher savings than £75k you can use the rest to build a dividend paying portfolio,no need to over think that,buy telcos,oilies,tobacco,an asian income investment trust,gsk,and 10% in physical silver.Feed the divis from that into a SIPP while you are working.

Then join Plentyoffish and enjoy your weekends travelling around the north east,Yorkshire,Cumbria and the borders making lonely women happy.

I actually think you all should move up here,we could have monthly macro meets in Durham that would involve 15 minutes deep dive,then just get bladdered in The Fighting Cocks 

[Fully Detached]

18 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Got a huge dilemma....

I've got 3 problems:

1) Tired of worrying about being left behind by rising house prices, and seeing apparently endless government support driving them up faster than my salary. (Or flip that around: I'm tired of working for a very slowly rising amount of a raplidly devaluing currency; it's the same difference!). Waiting for a HPC seems to be a losing strategy in England. I don't fancy emigrating.

2) Tired of worrying about passive vs active investment, big kahuna bust & bear market, bail-ins, financial repression, woke mob trying to destroy oil companies, counter-party risk, etc, etc.

3) Tired of struggling in my career. Got made redundant from a long term job 4 years ago. Had 3 new jobs since then and found all of them quite stressful. Ended up leaving the first 2 because I was taking too long to complete tasks (not lazy, just really struggled). Been in current job about 9 months. Work seemed extremely difficult for first 6 or 7 months, since then very difficult. Had hoped it would have got easier by now. Done a lot of studying over past 12 months to improve my skills, but that only helps so much. Not sure how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout (maybe a few more weeks or months).

 

I'm worried that if I go off sick with stress (private sector, no sick pay) or get sacked for slow performance, I would then end up burning through savings on basic living costs. Having savings has prevented me from getting any benefits in the past when I've been out of work. Feel like a mug when I read about people who don't work/didn't save getting loads of benefit money from the state. I doubt they suffer the stress that I've suffered over the past few years.

I'm thinking maybe I should buy a house and then it solves problems 1) & 2). Also, if I had a house and no savings, I might be eligible for benefits if I end up out of work (for whatever reason, except maybe quitting voluntarily).

Does anyone know if a single, childless, home-owning man (with little or no savings) would get benefits if out of work?

I'm approaching 50 so not young but still a long way from retirement. I could hold on and keep working for another year or two maybe, but probably not another fifteen years, unless it was in a much easier job.

Currently living cheaply with elderly parents. At current rate of outgoings I could last a long time on my savings (several years at least), but it's taken over 20 years to accumulate them and would be a shame to lose them all on basic living costs, particularly whilst I hear that people who never bothered to save get loads of benefits from the state.

My job is very good technical experience (an opportunity I've waited many years for), the salary is pretty good (40K ish) and the people I work with are great. However, I'm finding the work very tough, and every day is a struggle. Beginning to wonder how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Similar to my scenario, except I don't work for other people on account of my natural aversion to authority. Or more to the point, my refusal to recognise someone else as my superior for no other reason than that they say they are.

First thing from my perspective has to be your health - there's no point working yourself to death just to try to make a life. And if you're incredibly stressed out that's going to affect the quality of your decision making - the world looks a whole lot different and a whole lot less complicated when you're relaxed. Like several others on this thread I've stopped working nearly as much - I do 5 days per month now as standard, sometimes 10-12 if it's busy and I want some extra money. I'm fucked if I'm going to work myself to death to give money to a government that they're going to actively use against me. And boy, them hamsters on their wheels don't half look funny when you're kicking back and enjoying life.

As for a house, well only you can decide that. We are actively looking at the moment after losing our private rental and having to go back to the open market. It's been a case of looking further afield in the hope of buying the sort of quality of life we want without having to take on any debt (actually we are looking at a small mortgage but offset 2x by other investments, so net zero debt). For me the potential loss to a HPC is less scary than seeing my money get eaten away by inflation. If we buy I will be doing so in the full expectation that the house will drop by 25% minimum at some point. I'm mitigating this by spending as little as possible to minimise the nominal loss. At the same time, I expect any such drop to be very temporary (perhaps so temporary that you'd be lucky to time the bottom and get the sale completed before prices started rising again), meaning that what I would really lose is the theoretical opportunity to buy more house for the same money. And I'm mitigating that by looking for a place that ticks the vast majority of our boxes, so that I'm not stuck in an unsuitable house and seeing suitable houses on the market for less than we paid. So in simple terms I'm looking further afield to get the features that we want at the lowest possible price.

Someone up thread commented on the attractiveness of cash buyers - I've put a couple of offers in at 10% below asking and cash has not been attractive enough to have those accepted yet. But I get a sense that the pool of cash buyers is drying up and that the market is starting to turn - not a chill wind yet, but the sun seems to have gone behind a cloud and everybody's looking up wondering where it went.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do. This clown world that the political class have created is hopelessly unfair and completely arse backwards, but all we can do about it is accept it for what it is and make the best of it. In the centuries to come I genuinely think the present time will be looked back on as the end of an empire, with all the lunacy and debasement that tends to go with it. So as shit as it often seems, we're living through a hell of an experience.

[S Brule]

Sorry if a repost. But did anyone else notice that Shell Energy acquired the Post Office's telephone and broadband business this year? Didn't realise but Shell have been in the telephony business since 2016!

https://www.shellenergy.co.uk/blog/post/post-office-broadband-joins-shell-energy

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, S Brule said:

Sorry if a repost. But did anyone else notice that Shell Energy acquired the Post Office's telephone and broadband business this year? Didn't realise but Shell have been in the telephony business since 2016!

https://www.shellenergy.co.uk/blog/post/post-office-broadband-joins-shell-energy

Telcos are going to see massive moves at some point.The sector is ripe for buyouts etc.It only takes one pen stroke on legislation from regulators and governments and the telcos profits will explode if they can force more from heavy traffic tech company users.I think governments might.Its the easiest way to get more from these tech companies in tax and value for your economy.Wont pay tax,ok theres a 2x increase in your bill to the telco backbone owner and we will take that tax from them instead.

The sector is slowly de-leveraging even with massive CAPEX spending.I think we are looking at a tobacco situation back in the day.

[Mooping]

I would like to purchase some Gold.  I believe that purchasing Sovereigns is the best way in order to avoid paying CGT.  Is that correct?  My next question is what's the best way of purchasing sovereigns ie to get the best deal?  Thanks.

[AWW]

Bit of anecdata from my bit of north London.

There has long been a property firm based near me that promises "5 years of guaranteed rent" to landlords. I always wondered exactly how they hedge the risk of a downturn in the rental market, or how big the premiums must be to guarantee such large sums of money. Well, it turns out they didn't hedge, and they didn't charge big enough premiums, as they went bust last week.

 

They owe money to a ton of landlords, including, surprise surprise, the council, which currently sits on a ton of distressed commercial property.

The company director has fled the country.

[Bobthebuilder]

I have a few telco shares but would like to add more. Anyone know a decent ETF that covers the sector well? Not advice etc.