Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve been building up a big position in precious metal miners since the start of the year and following some good gains in a handful of names over the past month now makes up 45% of my portfolio. Is it risky? Yeah. However, I do think they’ll run hard at some point this year.

Totally agree. Done the same, I think we are heading for a major bull run in PM's, which will drag the miners up. Noticed the CB's are buying up physical. As long as the miners are not too overly hedged then big profits, equals good Divs along with some capital gains. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, Harley said:

I've given up guessing the future.  I have a system to tell me when to buy and sell at the individual stock level.  I will get hit in a BK but not too badly and getting hit a bit is necessary to know it's for real rather than just a minor pullback.  Not that I would sell core holdings, maybe just a third.  My efforts now are more focussed on asset allocations and institutional and government risk.

PS: As mentioned upthread IMO most stuff is overbought so I'm at maximum risk atm.  It could easily stay overbought and go higher, especially if we have a crack up, but this is the volatile risk zone.  Buy cheap sell high so I'm closed for further purchases other than a very few areas showing promise (e.g. certain PM miners and recently crypto).

Cheers, this is the thing when you're looking to put in the money that was set aside for a house its going to take more balls then when i was putting SIPP money into the markets as to be honest i was playing with that money as if i'd found it. Now the SIPP is going to be 150k in the coming weeks, i'm starting to realise it'd not be so easy to earn again, and 150K at my age (46) could be all i need to put into it if i leave if for another 14 years.

I know in 5+ years oil, energy etc will perform far better than a £375k 2 bed terrace in Winchester ... but its the having the balls, to time my move, when everything is looking a bit toppy at the moment ... and the people who Sancho, yourself, and several others have followed for a long time are all predicting impending Armageddon. 

Think i will set up a couple of £5k ladders for BP and Shell  starting at 270 and 1250 to get the ball rolling. Fucked will i be buying Infrastrata and crap like that with this money!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Go to justetf.com and select the sector to see all the allowable ones for us in the UK.  Be careful, the "Communications" ones often are not telco, having Facebook, etc.  The site will also give details like whether they hold stocks or synthetics, etc.  My opinion was the world wide sector was not well covered by those accessible to us (i e. Have a KID) so I went with individual stocks.

Im on this website but how do i narrow the search for ones available in the UK?

Cant see anything on 
https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-lists.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Cheers, this is the thing when you're looking to put in the money that was set aside for a house its going to take more balls then when i was putting SIPP money into the markets as to be honest i was playing with that money as if i'd found it. Now the SIPP is going to be 150k in the coming weeks, i'm starting to realise it'd not be so easy to earn again, and 150K at my age (46) could be all i need to put into it if i leave if for another 14 years.

I know in 5+ years oil, energy etc will perform far better than a £375k 2 bed terrace in Winchester ... but its the having the balls to time my move when everything is looking a bit toppy at the moment and the people who Sancho, yourself, and several others have followed for a long time are all predicting impending Armageddon. 

Think i will set up a couple of £5k ladders for BP and Shell  starting at 270 and 1250 to get the ball rolling. Fucked will i be buying Infrastrata and crap like that with this money!

The psychology is different. No harm in drip feeding e.g. put in £5k a month and buying one new stock over a period of time and if there is a huge sell off then going all in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The psychology is different. No harm in drip feeding e.g. put in £5k a month and buying one new stock over a period of time and if there is a huge sell off then going all in. 

Yes think i'll do that with the oil majors and Vodafone, which of my holdings are the ones that are at the price i've paid ... though they were bought in ladders so at some point i've been happy to pay more for them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Loki said:

Looks like only PJSC GAZPROM (OGZD) can be held in an ISA with HL.

GAZ can only be held in a fund and share account.

yes, I think gaz is rosneft.

ogzd is gazprom

Norilsk Nickel mnod is an interesting Russian company: nickel, palladium, coal, oil, gas. Has run up a lot though and carries sizeable debt. One to watch if there's a bk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, arrow said:

yes, I think gaz is rosneft.

ogzd is gazprom

Norilsk Nickel mnod is an interesting Russian company: nickel, palladium, coal, oil, gas. Has run up a lot though and carries sizeable debt. One to watch if there's a bk.

Thanks for that mate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Onsamui said:

Down here in Cornwall and being  cash buyers which gave us first dibs for viewing even before a property hit the market, but alas every one we liked we were out bid, so cash is not king here at the moment just gets you in first.

I think this is the issue at the moment I.e. people are so greedy `Cash is king` only if you are prepared to pay the asking price...they would rather `hold out` for a promise of the full asking price (that eventually falls through) rather than have a guaranteed 3 month sale for 5% less.

Cash is only a real benefit when you have distressed sellers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How's that for a paradigm shift? 

Those gain of function labs are bloody expensive don't you know!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ThoughtCriminal
11 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Those gain of function labs are bloody expensive don't you know!

Fucking your rivals economy isn't cheap! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
2 hours ago, Hunty said:

They will,they cant risk the main banks clogging the pipes given the size and scale of the debt and counterparty risk.Step 1 is make sure the banks have enough capital,they do,that was solved 08 to 13.This cycle is all about lifting base money up quicker than the debt increases across the economy to reflate main street,re-tool the west and keep governments solvent.Fed need to keep the dollar down so they can fire a broad based recovery worldwide.They dont want emerging markets rolling over.It would be a disaster is all the liquidity flowed back through repos.They wont tolerate base money falling back.Reflation is the only game in town,the other roads all lead to systemic collapse and the Feds no 1 priority is to avoid that.They arent about winners or losers here,they about stopping western countries collapsing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Hancock said:

Im on this website but how do i narrow the search for ones available in the UK?

Cant see anything on 
https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-lists.html

Best on a computer as the ETF screener is more extensive (eg. Includes sectors).  Top of the screen (left hand side?) Should confirm you are looking as a retail UK investor.  You can change it by clicking on it.  Everything you see is eligible.  The ETF screener (via the menu on the top right hand side) will restrict things further.  Each individual ETF display will show where the ETF is listed and its ticker symbol and currency for each exchange.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another example of taking profits off the table: bought Telstra (one of our main aussie telco's) at 2.89, sold at 3.51.  Nice uptick plus two small dividends in 9 months.  

Now, it could well go onto 3.80 or so, but if there is a BK it will fall like a stone as retail investors panic.  I'd rather have 10k back of which 1.5kish was profit, than try to time a top.  I also think Australians are going to be doing a lot of belt tightening in 2021-2022 as the COVID economic impacts really start, and things like delaying new mobiles for the kids, etc, will hit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The nominal amounts held in shares etc. mentioned on this thread are crazy to me. Nothing wrong with it, I am jealous, fair fucks to you!

Also, I may be getting mixed up, but I think some guys here have talked about moving to South East Asia.

Do it!

You can have a great life for relatively little.

I know DB says it's cheap up north, but I have no doubt the white sand beaches of SEA would suit some of you a lot more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

geordie_lurch
12 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Those gain of function labs are bloody expensive don't you know!

Yeah that's why the USA, France and others apparently our money into hell build them :wanker:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
18 hours ago, Castlevania said:

The large industrial conglomerates fell out of fashion in the West. I don’t really see them coming back. There’s still the odd company that has several seemingly unrelated parts - such as Associated British Foods for example which makes a load of branded food; refines sugar and also owns Primark.

The first share i bought when i was 15 years old was Hanson Trust,it had just bought Imperial Tobacco who owned all kinds of other companies.Hanson sold them off and ended up getting the tobacco business for free.I sold the shares,but bought Imperial again in 96 when Hanson split itself up.We might see companies expand into related industries in future.Tobacco moving into cannabis and energy into grids etc.

Telcos might also get into payments big style.Vodafone of course have M Pesa and that could end up the biggest financial company in Africa.If networks can skim the top from payments it would become the best business in the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The first share i bought when i was 15 years old was Hanson Trust,it had just bought Imperial Tobacco who owned all kinds of other companies.Hanson sold them off and ended up getting the tobacco business for free.I sold the shares,but bought Imperial again in 96 when Hanson split itself up.We might see companies expand into related industries in future.Tobacco moving into cannabis and energy into grids etc.

Telcos might also get into payments big style.Vodafone of course have M Pesa and that could end up the biggest financial company in Africa.If networks can skim the top from payments it would become the best business in the world.

I can see the logic for that, but even so there’s usually a better focus and a bigger valuation assigned if split up. It kind of made sense for eBay to own PayPal, but by spinning out the latter the eBay shareholders that kept the PayPal shares have done brilliantly. Or another example Barclays had the biggest ETF business in the world. Few people paid too much attention to it and it wasn’t being properly valued as a part of the company as a whole. To raise capital they sold it on the cheap to Blackrock. If you were a shareholder in Barclays you’ve missed out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

China is increasing its energy/commodity demand as it allows married couples to have three children instead of two and introduces support measures to enable the increase in "human resources", the communist party term for more children. More future workers which China needs to support the old and counter its falling birth rate. I wonder what the support measures will be, as raising kids anywhere is costly. Perhaps they'll follow the incentives of eastern europe. Reuters doesn't criticise the married couples requirement or suggest that the west should follow with increased support measures for married couples to have more children.

 

"China said on Monday that married couples may have up to three children, a major policy shift from the existing limit of two after recent data showed a dramatic decline in births in the world's most populous country.

Beijing scrapped its decades-old one-child policy in 2016, replacing it with a two-child limit that failed to result in a sustained surge in births given the high cost of raising children in Chinese cities - a challenge that remains.

"To further optimise the birth policy, (China) will implement a one-married-couple-can-have-three-children policy," the official Xinhua news agency said in a report following a politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping.

The policy change will come with "supportive measures, which will be conducive to improving our country's population structure, fulfilling the country's strategy of actively coping with an ageing population and maintaining the advantage, endowment of human resources", Xinhua said.

It did not specify the support measures.

"People are held back not by the two-children limit, but by the incredibly high costs of raising children in today's China. Housing, extracurricular activities, food, trips, and everything else add up quickly," Yifei Li, a sociologist at NYU Shanghai, told Reuters.

"Raising the limit itself is unlikely to tilt anyone’s calculus in a meaningful way, in my view," he said.

In a poll on Xinhua's Weibo account asking #AreYouReady for the three-child policy, about 29,000 of 31,000 respondents said they would “never think of it” while the remainder chose among the options: "I'm ready and very eager to do so", "it's on my agenda", or “I'm hesitating and there's lot to consider”.

The poll was later removed.

"I am willing to have three children if you give me 5 million yuan ($785,650)," one user posted.

Shares in birth- and fertility-related companies surged.

SLOWING GROWTH

Early this month, China's once-in-a-decade census showed that the population grew at its slowest rate during the last decade since the 1950s, to 1.41 billion. Data also showed a fertility rate of just 1.3 children per woman for 2020 alone, on a par with ageing societies like Japan and Italy.

China's politburo also said it would phase in delays in retirement ages, but did not provide any details.

Fines of 130,000 yuan ($20,440) were being imposed on people for having a third child as of late last year.

"I'm super happy," said Su Meizhen, a human resources manager in Beijing, who is pregnant with her third child.

"We won't have to pay the fine and we'll be able to get a hukou," she said, referring to the urban residence permit that enables families to receive benefits including sending their children to local public schools."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...