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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko
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nirvana
15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm looking at the US listing rather than that Canadian version

yeah it's weird that on google finance you can't see the yankee listing.....even when I search nyse:auy :S

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30 minutes ago, nirvana said:

ok I tried to get a quote but I get this message, arsoles, I hate em :P

There is currently no online quote available. Please either try requesting another online quote or call us on 0345 373 3479 to deal over the phone. You can also place a limit order (UK securities only)

AJ Bell?  I've had the same message but if you try again sometimes the buy/sell goes through.  I've never tried phoning them.  Maybe everyone is buying today............

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Castlevania
30 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yeah it's weird that on google finance you can't see the yankee listing.....even when I search nyse:auy :S

Looks like it’s disappeared. It’s dropped off my watchlist.

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Castlevania
4 minutes ago, janch said:

AJ Bell?  I've had the same message but if you try again sometimes the buy/sell goes through.  I've never tried phoning them.  Maybe everyone is buying today............

I’ve never been able to get a quote on Yamana with HL. They allow you to set a fill or kill order where one of their employees will transact it manually on your behalf.

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Hardhat
39 minutes ago, nirvana said:

ok I tried to get a quote but I get this message, arsoles, I hate em :P

There is currently no online quote available. Please either try requesting another online quote or call us on 0345 373 3479 to deal over the phone. You can also place a limit order (UK securities only)

You could try a limit order on AJB, it's worked for me in the past when no live quote available. 

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23rdian
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, nirvana said:

ok I tried to get a quote but I get this message, arsoles, I hate em :P

There is currently no online quote available. Please either try requesting another online quote or call us on 0345 373 3479 to deal over the phone. You can also place a limit order (UK securities only)

I managed to get it on FreeTrade today. Didn't have much cash to hand but it's a start.

Edited by 23rdian
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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, nirvana said:

yeah it's weird that on google finance you can't see the yankee listing.....even when I search nyse:auy :S

I have bought/ sold Yamana, Harmony, even the Great Panther etc on the NYSE, ADR on my Halifax account over the last 2 years. Not a great account but sign the W-8BEN form and no probs for me.

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Bear Hug
1 hour ago, nirvana said:

ok I tried to get a quote but I get this message, arsoles, I hate em :P

There is currently no online quote available. Please either try requesting another online quote or call us on 0345 373 3479 to deal over the phone. You can also place a limit order (UK securities only)

Trading 212 has it listed 

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nirvana

thanks for the replies guys...yeah the error, that's youinvest aka AJ Bell..... I find them to be shitheads:o

on HL things seem to flow much better, like I was buying some Yankee stuff last week and I signed the W-8BEN no probs

I've got a SIPP on youinvest that's got some spare cash....you can all throw your buy recs at me!

I actually did realise profits on my oilies....and I did think about getting back in but I think I got distracted looking at crypto crap like a naughty boy :wanker:

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nirvana
1 minute ago, Loki said:

I didn't get one of those with my Trading 212 account.  :PissedOff:

actually I take back what I said, NASDAQ is getting bummed and the bastards have slapped Silver down again....seriously getting pee'd off with that crap......someone is encouraging me to go all in crypto instead....ooh shall I shall I? I can always run away again if it all goes horribly wrong :oxD

Disclaimer: exaggerating a bit with Silver it's still above 27 lol NICE bounce on WTI, looks well supported........I'm thinking shorts on cable, it's getting dizzy up there o.O

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1 minute ago, nirvana said:

NASDAQ is getting bummed and the bastards have slapped Silver down again

My fault, I dusted off aforementioned T212 account yesterday and bought a little NASDAQ

Sorry :(

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Bobthebuilder
2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

actually I take back what I said, NASDAQ is getting bummed and the bastards have slapped Silver down again....seriously getting pee'd off with that crap......someone is encouraging me to go all in crypto instead....ooh shall I shall I? I can always run away again if it all goes horribly wrong :oxD

Disclaimer: exaggerating a bit with Silver it's still above 27 lol NICE bounce on WTI, looks well supported........I'm thinking shorts on cable, it's getting dizzy up there o.O

You lead such an active life. I am sitting here waiting for my BATS divi to land, so I can go shopping.

Slow and boring is me these days.

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nirvana
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You lead such an active life. I am sitting here waiting for my BATS divi to land, so I can go shopping.

Slow and boring is me these days.

dude I was on a 'deep dive' the other night and I was giving myself so much shit for not getting my jobs sorted out xD

I can't concentrate for long enough to sort all my trades out.......I think I might need a bit more help ;)

You've reminded me I was half way through buying something from the Chinkies to keep the economy going....:)

Spoos aka S&P is back to Friday's pre pump level......see even the big boys pump n dump the indices just like the 'crypto rampers'.......so could be another dip lower on the cards....sell, sell, SELL EVERYTHING lol

Edited by nirvana
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nirvana
Posted (edited)

just to show how shite those aholes at youinvest are.....google is showing Coinbase @295usd

those useless shites are showing my holdings at 263.25usd

anyway I'll stfu now...thanks for listening :)

edit: even lower! and that's just for one, I have more than one lol

Edited by nirvana
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Animal Spirits
5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Yes but there are a host of genueine problems with the deflator used for real GDP calcs.

What your saying is actually that there hasn't been many quarters that have seen negative GDP prints in the psot war period.Quite true,but that doesn't mean that there hasn't been a siginifcant deflation in that times in parts of the economy.Got to pickc up kids but I'll be back later.

 

I agree with that, it was just a quick high level example of how liquidity has been used to keep the plates spinning in aggregate.

GDP doesnt take into account total debt or leverage and liquidity doesnt suddenly make junk bond issuing companies any better run or viable; moral hazard.

As DB has mentioned, against a deflationary backdrop the central planners have the option to inject but there is no free lunch unless you want to turn into Venezuela. If his roadmap plays out as expected, that option will be removed and then with higher rates and the end of another cycle that option wont be viable...

But back to your point, during that cycle there should be a different set of winners and losers as already discussed in the thread.

While were on the topic of deflation, some words from Lacy Hunt's interview on the Grant Williams podcast (August 2020):

My professor said that the Enlightenment could not have occurred without David Hume.

Anyway, Hume wrote this tremendous piece on public credit in 1772.

He said in there:

“If you do not control public credit, it will control you”

And his final conclusion is that, when a state has mortgaged all of its future revenues, the state lapses into tranquillity, languor and impotence.

Now we have a lot of examples.

You become weaker and weaker and weaker.

Whether you manage to hold it together with high levels of indebtedness, or whether you try to use some sort of worthless instrument to pay the debt off.

The system really doesn’t work well under it.

What we have here, and really, the thrust of where the modern monetary theory is going.

People are talking about the technicals of MMT.

The real flaw is what creates economic prosperity, wellbeing, advancement, ingenuity, saving, reinvesting — the solutions are not with the government.

What we’re looking for is some sort of easy governmental solution, which is not the way we achieved our prosperity.

That’s the fundamental flaw in MMT.

Government policy has failed and so we’re going back to the government asking for more of the same types of policy, but we’re getting off into areas where the results could be even more catastrophic, in disinflation or even low inflation, it’s not a good system.

If we start making the Feds liability legal tender, everyone’s going to be totally miserable in very short order, people will not want to hold financial assets.

They’ll only want to hold commodities that they consume or trade for consumable commodities.

Productivity collapses, the whole system begins to malfunction.

There are people that are willing to take that risk in order to get beyond the debt problem.

We are moving into a time where the situation could become more volatile, but that is not today.

We’re not there now.

We may be on the path, but we’re not there.

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nirvana
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Animal Spirits said:

Anyway, Hume wrote this tremendous piece on public credit in 1772.

you know what the French were doing around the same time?

Assignats were paper money issued by the Constituent Assembly in France from 1789 to 1796, during the French Revolution, to address imminent bankruptcy. They were backed by the value of properties formerly held by the Catholic Church, which were confiscated, on the motion of Mirabeau, by the Assembly on 2 November 1789...

so maybe the plebs of Britain could get together and take back the land that was stolen from them in 1066 that appears to be a root cause of this 'rentier capitalism' that is causing so many issues on the 'island prison'? :P

Edited by nirvana
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Posted (edited)

Please note this is NOT just another BTC content video, I know there has been quite a lot of discussions lately... instead Raoul presents here his thesis that macro and value/growth investing is kinda dead, or at least very suboptimal. Is he just talking his book? Or does he have a point? I am definitely not suggesting to sell our deflation stocks and copy what he's doing, but Raoul does introduce some interesting ideas in the video. (Eg He mentions the Elon Musk Starling satellite project, what are people's thoughts on the negative affects it may have on telecoms sector? I'm concerned as I own a lot of the telecoms).                                                                       Raoul is now fully embedded in crypto, heck he thinks now even BTC was probably created as a US/UK psyops! ...but actually I'm being uncharitable, this video is apparently his first attempt at introducing his next cycle thesis which he has been developing. Very broadly, he thinks coming cycle will be deflation (inflation I think he says is impossible), driven by technology/productivity, with crypto initially acting as a massive disruptor to finance sector, then other sectors, and ultimately becoming backbone of economy. I await a more detailed exploration of his thesis as this one is a bit basic but is still worth watching.                                                               

                                                                                                                              

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13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

cross psot from property crash thread.

 

 

More on this from Wolf ST.Nick Corbishley

Demand for flats is collapsing,some flats are moving at losses of 67% on purchase price,

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/30/bank-of-england-frets-about-banks-as-flammable-cladding-crisis-crushes-prices-at-low-end-of-housing-market/

The BoE is assessing if contagion from this scandal could spread to the broader housing market and cause a new financial crisis.

By Nick Corbishley for WOLF STREET:

The Bank of England is now fretting about the impact the UK’s flammable-cladding crisis could have on broader home prices in the UK and what that means for banks. New data shows that affected properties — and there are up to 1.3 million of these flats — sell for as little as one third of what the owner had paid.

The BoE is concerned about the banks that sit on loans backed by those properties and is assessing whether contagion from this scandal could spread to the broader housing market and cause a new financial crisis.

The BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has surveyed mortgage-lenders on their exposure to leasehold flats with fire risks. And it is asking lenders for regular updates.

With banks refusing to offer mortgages on apartments in these buildings, and with cash buyers demanding crippling discounts, even selling the unit is not really an option.

In the wake of the fire at the Grenfell Tower of June 2017, which resulted in the deaths of 72 people, up to 1.3 million leaseholders in the UK discovered that the buildings in which they own their flats may have also been rigged with flammable cladding and insulation materials.

The “freehold” — the building and the land — belongs to somebody else, usually the developer, a financial entity the developer sold it to, or a large landowner such as the Queen or the Duke of Westminster. They are able to extract annual rent on those assets.

Under leasehold law, owners of the flats are liable for the costs. Over the past 12 months, apartments in many multi-occupancy buildings, even those of four stories or fewer, have required a so-called external wall system (EWS1) form in order to qualify for a mortgage. But many of the buildings are still waiting for inspection, leaving their occupants trapped in financial limbo, in buildings that may also be a firetrap.

Up to 1.3 million flats, including in thousands of recently built structures, are currently unmortgageable. These properties are at the low end of the housing ladder. And they are all but impossible to sell, without plunging their current leaseholders into a deep loss. That this low end of the housing market is beginning to seize up as lenders refuse to offer mortgages on any multi-occupancy buildings that pose even the slightest fire risk is threatening to disrupt the entire property market.

Now attention is turning to the potential impact this could have on the wider financial system. A study by the Leasehold Knowledge Partnership (LKP), cited by The Times, has found that of the flats in buildings with fire risks that had gone to auction since December 2019, about 80% failed to sell at all, or sold at discounts of up to 67% from the price the owner had originally paid.

For example, a one-bedroom flat in Manchester failed to sell last month despite being listed for half the £330,000 its owner had paid in 2017. In another example, a two-bedroom flat at The Decks, an award-winning design with flammable cladding, sold at auction for £52,000 last year, 62% lower than the price its owners had paid (£134,450) in 2008.

In many cases, the additional debt will sink leaseholders deep into negative equity, meaning they will still not be able to sell their apartment without incurring a significant loss even after the cladding and insulation have finally been removed.

The scale of the crisis is big, but it’s still unclear how big. For the moment, the rest of the UK’s housing market is buoyant, with average prices rising 7.1% compared to a year ago. But the bottom layer of the housing market is seizing up as lenders refuse to offer mortgages on any multi-occupancy buildings that pose this type of fire risk.

Yet even as all of this is happening, new data suggests that three-quarters of cladding systems being installed on new medium-rise buildings completed in 2019 and 2020 still used combustible materials. The government had proposed banning the use of such materials in these buildings but hasn’t actually followed through with legislation. The data – from an analysis by non-combustible insulation manufacturer Rockwool of figures from construction database Glenigan – also shows that 112 other potentially high-risk buildings had been built with combustible rainscreen systems during the same period. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.

Interesting. Hmm, I was wondering why the resultant government cladding policy for this was just so incredibly incompetent, and will surely only serve to turn a million flat owners into labour voters I think. However if we allow for there being method to the government madness, and perhaps even enter into the realms of conspiracy, maybe it is after all a grand ruse to crash the market? ...if so I think the same set of technocrats who worked on our Lockdown lament (with it's 2m rule) must also have worked on that Cladding cogertation (and its 6 floor rule)?!?

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Big sell off on the Nikkei, futures also indicating further declines today.

BTC also weak recovery to over $55k, maybe more to come. I’ll be keeping an eye the markets today.

65E35F27-58C4-46AC-9393-BCA62D08C3E9.jpeg

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nirvana
10 hours ago, nirvana said:

see even the big boys pump n dump the indices just like the 'crypto rampers'.......so could be another dip lower on the cards....s

the pump, then the dump :Geek:

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