Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Phil]

If it’s a Competition I submit 

[AWW]

5 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I would love for DB to run some numbers on housing in the SE, but I appreciate he has no interest in that area!

I do, because I've got to apply for schools next year and we're still renting in a schooling black hole.

I really could do with buying a house right now. But even in my situation, all I see is the riskiest time in my life to get into London property.

Every house I like the look of sits on the market for months, gets reduced, and eventually sells.  On some properties, 20% discounts on the asking price are offered as soon as you ask how little the vendor will accept.

(Greater) London is going down this time.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, AWW said:

I do, because I've got to apply for schools next year and we're still renting in a schooling black hole.

I really could do with buying a house right now. But even in my situation, all I see is the riskiest time in my life to get into London property.

Every house I like the look of sits on the market for months, gets reduced, and eventually sells.  On some properties, 20% discounts on the asking price are offered as soon as you ask how little the vendor will accept.

(Greater) London is going down this time.

Good. Worked on Canary Wharf, 2004. Stayed in a pub in Seven Sisters. Shithole. Going back from work, police blue tape ( stabby even then) cop dogs etc. 
it’s the community don’t ya know

[wherebee]

12 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

Interesting, I've just had an email from certain research company which I used to subscribe to (not any more but I still get their emails!) and they have just sent me one on oil and how we reach net zero. It discusses how solar and wind needs to be ramped up;

It then goes on to talk about oil and the demand going out to 2050;

What are your thoughts CP. Personally I think the bit between will be the bit everyone is missing. The amount of fossil fuel needed to put all that infrastructure in place as pointed out in the excellent Dominic Frisby video above!

Anybody predicting a fall in oil demand from 100 to 25 is smoking crack and has drunk the cool aid.  Will China stop buying oil?  Will India?  Will Indonesia?  Will Malaysia?  Will Vietnam and Pakistan? You're looking at almost half the worlds population in that circle.  Will they fuck

The pressure will exist in the west for oil companies to to green stuff, but the oil demand will not go away (unless, as I say before, we have a new energy source/tech uncovered - cue the aliens on the other thread destroying my oilies investments).

As an example, I got this re Woodside:

• Australian operator Woodside Petroleum is looking to develop a large-scale solar project in Western Australia that could provide power for its Pluto liquefied natural gas development.
• The proposed Woodside Power Project would consist of roughly 210,000 solar panels, which the oil and gas operator claimed would make it one of the largest solar projects in Western Australia.
• Woodside is also evaluating supplying a further 50MW to Perdaman's proposed urea facility on the Burrup Peninsula, which will produce blue ammonia from natural gas.
• Woodside acting chief executive Meg O'Neill said the proposed Woodside Power Project was part of the company's vision for large-scale supply of renewable energy to existing and future industry on the Burrup Peninsula.
• Woodside stated Thursday it had already carried out a range of environmental, geotechnical and engineering studies for the proposed power project and was now progressing key stakeholder consultations ahead of seeking regulatory approvals.

[reformed nice guy]

30 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Anybody predicting a fall in oil demand from 100 to 25 is smoking crack and has drunk the cool aid.  Will China stop buying oil?  Will India?  Will Indonesia?  Will Malaysia?  Will Vietnam and Pakistan? You're looking at almost half the worlds population in that circle.  Will they fuck

Completely agree and reminds me of this picture

[Boon]

40% inflation-adjusted falls for the house prices in the SE across the cycle actually means no decrease and probably an increase in nominal prices.

Have thought for a while the government might actually like this. Most people would be unhappy with a crash but if it is silently stolen from them they won't have the brains to figure out what happened.

But then again maybe they are powerless to resist it. For example a £400k purchase worth £425 in 5 years has gained around 1% a year nominal, but lost 4% if inflation is 5%. 

Had someone managed to put £400k in inflation-loving stocks which generated a 6% return instead, that £400k would be worth £520k (ignoring tax and compouding for simplicity). Rent less mortgage interest could be around 1k/month, so it would not be better to buy.

But most people don't have £400k lying around. In which case buying the house probably still works out to be the better scenario as that is the only real way to get massive leverage, and it is still better than cash.

 

[Sugarlips]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Anybody predicting a fall in oil demand from 100 to 25 is smoking crack and has drunk the cool aid.  Will China stop buying oil?  Will India?  Will Indonesia?  Will Malaysia?  Will Vietnam and Pakistan? You're looking at almost half the worlds population in that circle.  Will they fuck

The pressure will exist in the west for oil companies to to green stuff, but the oil demand will not go away (unless, as I say before, we have a new energy source/tech uncovered - cue the aliens on the other thread destroying my oilies investments).

As an example, I got this re Woodside:

• Australian operator Woodside Petroleum is looking to develop a large-scale solar project in Western Australia that could provide power for its Pluto liquefied natural gas development.
• The proposed Woodside Power Project would consist of roughly 210,000 solar panels, which the oil and gas operator claimed would make it one of the largest solar projects in Western Australia.
• Woodside is also evaluating supplying a further 50MW to Perdaman's proposed urea facility on the Burrup Peninsula, which will produce blue ammonia from natural gas.
• Woodside acting chief executive Meg O'Neill said the proposed Woodside Power Project was part of the company's vision for large-scale supply of renewable energy to existing and future industry on the Burrup Peninsula.
• Woodside stated Thursday it had already carried out a range of environmental, geotechnical and engineering studies for the proposed power project and was now progressing key stakeholder consultations ahead of seeking regulatory approvals.

21000 panels wow. Should keep the Uyghur’s busy for a while..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57124636

[Lightscribe]

A bit of an anecdotal. Four flat sales have fallen through in my partners block of flats in London. Recently the service charge has risen by 20% partly due to inflation of service costs (and partly thanks to the inept service management company and handling of cladding, waking watch etc). The block has now gained their own RTM and ousted the management company and appointed their own.
Reasons for dropping out was that the service charge was too high (even with a fire safety certificate). 
My partners in the fortunate position where if we needed to sell it we could completely undercut the rest by £40-60k. Those others will be lucky to get out with a 10-20% loss if they sell now. They won’t as property only goes up you see.

If that block has had its cladding issues sorted out and is one of the few to have its fire safety certificate, what chance does the rest of the affected London flats have?

As I said yesterday, I don’t see a way that there won’t be a housing market crash in all scenarios going forward. Even if rates didn’t rise, the inflation and affordability of costs alone will take out the FTB regardless. Without that the whole lot comes down, and we’re seeing it now in London.

[Bobthebuilder]

@Lightscribe.

I did a gas certificate on a 6th floor central London flat this week. They had just sold it to a cash buyer, it was the only way around the cladding/ fire certs. Said otherwise the fire certs would be at least 18 months away with all the backlog/ cv delays.

[wherebee]

31 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

A bit of an anecdotal. Four flat sales have fallen through in my partners block of flats in London. Recently the service charge has risen by 20% partly due to inflation of service costs (and partly thanks to the inept service management company and handling of cladding, waking watch etc). The block has now gained their own RTM and ousted the management company and appointed their own.
Reasons for dropping out was that the service charge was too high (even with a fire safety certificate). 
My partners in the fortunate position where if we needed to sell it we could completely undercut the rest by £40-60k. Those others will be lucky to get out with a 10-20% loss if they sell now. They won’t as property only goes up you see.

If that block has had its cladding issues sorted out and is one of the few to have its fire safety certificate, what chance does the rest of the affected London flats have?

As I said yesterday, I don’t see a way that there won’t be a housing market crash in all scenarios going forward. Even if rates didn’t rise, the inflation and affordability of costs alone will take out the FTB regardless. Without that the whole lot comes down, and we’re seeing it now in London.

You can get a crash in one area of the UK, and rises in the other.  Think North vs south in the 80's/90's.  If London goes full on New york...

[Lightscribe]

51 minutes ago, wherebee said:

You can get a crash in one area of the UK, and rises in the other.  Think North vs south in the 80's/90's.  If London goes full on New york...

 

It’s a delayed transition very much so. It’s like the credit chart posted a few pages back. Inflation hasn’t hit the consumer full on yet (just energy, building materials so far) but will be coming at all angles later this year. Furlough money (or stimulus cheques in the US), WFH and not going out has enabled enough people to pay off debt with excess money. It’s when their salaries isn’t able to cover the rising costs of everything as well as housing costs that’s where they resort to credit and this chart goes the other way.

After 2008, Northern Ireland and other areas in the north (like Durham) didn’t ever recover until now and that’s what we are now seeing. That’s how slow the transition is in the rising stage of the housing market.

The drop is different however. A sharp correction rippling out from London will effect everywhere as banks turn off the taps on low rate higher risk lending. The housing market needs transactions to continue HPI forever. No good if generation rent is priced out beyond all ability to borrow and the property owning older generation has no one to sell them to.

[Boon]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

A bit of an anecdotal. Four flat sales have fallen through in my partners block of flats in London. Recently the service charge has risen by 20% partly due to inflation of service costs (and partly thanks to the inept service management company and handling of cladding, waking watch etc). The block has now gained their own RTM and ousted the management company and appointed their own.
Reasons for dropping out was that the service charge was too high (even with a fire safety certificate). 
My partners in the fortunate position where if we needed to sell it we could completely undercut the rest by £40-60k. Those others will be lucky to get out with a 10-20% loss if they sell now. They won’t as property only goes up you see.

If that block has had its cladding issues sorted out and is one of the few to have its fire safety certificate, what chance does the rest of the affected London flats have?

As I said yesterday, I don’t see a way that there won’t be a housing market crash in all scenarios going forward. Even if rates didn’t rise, the inflation and affordability of costs alone will take out the FTB regardless. Without that the whole lot comes down, and we’re seeing it now in London.

I think this is being replicated across London.

One block I am following closely also has sales falling through. For some reason, the only sales that are going through are the shared ownership ones.

I know someone in there who did have theirs for sale but cannot sell it due to the price being too high. They bought for £450k and flats are changing hands at £400k, and struggling to at that.

Service charge inflation could certainly be a thing as these are passed straight through, often with mark-ups. Thus since 2016 (when the flat was built) the service charge has increased from c.£200 a month to c.£300 a month. No cladding issues at all, and EWS1 is in place.

By contrast there is one down the road that needs a waking watch, and needs cladding replacement. The service charge for that has gone to near £1000 a month. I saw a listing where someone was trying to sell, but who would buy it with a charge like that on it.

In virtually all other free industries you would get some kind of innovation to meet customer demand. For example, flying was real expensive 20 years ago; Ryanair restructured things so that anyone wanting to fly with no luggage and not checking in at a counter could do so very cheaply.

Some kind of FTB-inspired initiative could see lots of small units built in non-premium locations with services with low basic cost and high ancillary service charges. But this type of thing would face opposition from everyone apart from the people it could benefit, thus it would never get off the ground.

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, Boon said:

I think this is being replicated across London.

One block I am following closely also has sales falling through. For some reason, the only sales that are going through are the shared ownership ones.

I know someone in there who did have theirs for sale but cannot sell it due to the price being too high. They bought for £450k and flats are changing hands at £400k, and struggling to at that.

Service charge inflation could certainly be a thing as these are passed straight through, often with mark-ups. Thus since 2016 (when the flat was built) the service charge has increased from c.£200 a month to c.£300 a month. No cladding issues at all, and EWS1 is in place.

By contrast there is one down the road that needs a waking watch, and needs cladding replacement. The service charge for that has gone to near £1000 a month. I saw a listing where someone was trying to sell, but who would buy it with a charge like that on it.

In virtually all other free industries you would get some kind of innovation to meet customer demand. For example, flying was real expensive 20 years ago; Ryanair restructured things so that anyone wanting to fly with no luggage and not checking in at a counter could do so very cheaply.

Some kind of FTB-inspired initiative could see lots of small units built in non-premium locations with services with low basic cost and high ancillary service charges. But this type of thing would face opposition from everyone apart from the people it could benefit, thus it would never get off the ground.

Depending on the terms of the shared ownership scheme, the service charge can be covered in the rent paid on the % percentage you don’t own. So you won’t be immediately affected by soaring service charges.

[Heart's Ease]

A little bit down the thread someone comments that the amount of £ the fund holds will remain constant, not increase.

[JMD]

19 hours ago, planit said:

Sorry for not replying, I was away.

It is insane for a lot of reasons but the main one from a survival point of view is that the world population needs oil to live. If supply falls more than 10% (could be less) people will start dying in large numbers.

Let's do a thought experiment:

You have 10 chickens producing eggs that your family needs in order not to starve to death

it might be a good idea to look after them. In fact I am sure you would put a lot of effort in to make sure they survived.

You would not start shouting at them, then poking them, then hitting them with a stick, then make a law that says 2 need to be destroyed, then make another law to say they all have to be dead in 9 years.

^This is what we have been doing the last 2 years and it is accelerating. 

 

I am not a denier that we have an effect on the environment [in the up direction]. But like @Cattle Prod said, you need to be very careful with the figures environmental 'scientists' trot out. It has become a religion so data is ignored if it doesn't fit the narrative. If one of them does say something against the prevailing wind, that person is shot down so they can't do it again. This is a very unhealthy situation, almost a criminal cartel. It has also become a big money game, they get hundreds of billions of dollars and the more they shout the more they get. 

It's like the new version of war, politicians can look good and divert attention by chucking money at green projects. Nearly all of that money is wasted and the projects will be white elephants. I am hoping lots of them will be bought up by BP in 5 years time (fits in with @DurhamBorn  funding difficult as they will be burning cash).

 

The worst thing we could do is take everything out on the oil companies, if we do then we will have the deepest depression we can imagine where we can't afford heating in the winter. I don't think it will come to that as it will become obvious we need more oil and the oil bashing will stop. People are missing the fact that the oil companies have all the knowledge and expertise to become the future green energy companies, they are the best option for a fast and safe transition to green.

We have a bit of chicken and egg at the moment with green energy production in that solar panels and wind turbines can't be made without oil/coal/gas so the environmental people need to be more patient. Technology will also catch up (hydrogen/planes etc). It needs more of an overarching plan on moving forward, not chucking billions of dollars at anything with 'green' in the title.

</rant>Sorry @nirvana 

 

Yes, I've written before that the 'war' analogy works for me (to 'help' focus my own personal investment macro thinking, etc). But context they say is everything. Ie Do you think the political policy ramping is for control/social reset reasons, or for inflation-rip/economic reset reasons? Or maybe both/neither/other? 

[Harley]

12 hours ago, wherebee said:

Anybody predicting a fall in oil demand from 100 to 25 is smoking crack and has drunk the cool aid.  Will China stop buying oil?  Will India?  Will Indonesia?  Will Malaysia?  Will Vietnam and Pakistan? You're looking at almost half the worlds population in that circle.  Will they fuck

The pressure will exist in the west for oil companies to to green stuff, but the oil demand will not go away (unless, as I say before, we have a new energy source/tech uncovered - cue the aliens on the other thread destroying my oilies investments).

As an example, I got this re Woodside:

• Australian operator Woodside Petroleum is looking to develop a large-scale solar project in Western Australia that could provide power for its Pluto liquefied natural gas development.
• The proposed Woodside Power Project would consist of roughly 210,000 solar panels, which the oil and gas operator claimed would make it one of the largest solar projects in Western Australia.
• Woodside is also evaluating supplying a further 50MW to Perdaman's proposed urea facility on the Burrup Peninsula, which will produce blue ammonia from natural gas.
• Woodside acting chief executive Meg O'Neill said the proposed Woodside Power Project was part of the company's vision for large-scale supply of renewable energy to existing and future industry on the Burrup Peninsula.
• Woodside stated Thursday it had already carried out a range of environmental, geotechnical and engineering studies for the proposed power project and was now progressing key stakeholder consultations ahead of seeking regulatory approvals.

Ta.  Nice to see WPL finally get the bid.  May have to top up?

 

[wherebee]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  Nice to see WPL finally get the bid.  May have to top up?

 

just remember that oil and gas exploration in australia is just as political as the USA.  Lefty gvts win at state level = no new drilling.  You need to have a view on the local politics to understand the headwinds.

[Barnsey]

As expected...

 

[janch]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

A little bit down the thread someone comments that the amount of £ the fund holds will remain constant, not increase.

ZH are also reporting this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russias-186-billion-sovereign-wealth-fund-dumps-all-dollar-assets

[JMD]

12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's as simple as this: 'settled' or 'consensus' is anti-science. Its about open debate, challenge refinement experiment, repeatability. The balance of evidence is that our activity is affecting climate. Its just not discussed anymore whether this is a problem or not because the normal scientific progression has been seized by others for various reasons. @planit alluded to it up thread. Be very sceptical when science reaches 'consensus', there should be no such thing (see: SAGE and covid-19).

I've used Copernicus challenging an earth centred solar system as an example before. Maybe Einstein is a better example, for he proved Newton's theories at least partially wrong, hundreds of years later. Who the f**k would argue with gravity? A good scientist would. And an apple falling from a tree is a lot simpler than multivariate climate models.

Maybe I'm old school, but the problem I see is that we won't actually get to the root of the problem without healthy challenge and opposing debate. It's just dogma now.

Yes I agree. And I wouldn't characterise your thinking as old school either. Science however is perhaps 'experiencing a break in transmission', at least some parts of it are, but in the main Its mostly the statistics and the measurement that's being 'misinterpreted', and those types of 'errors' can be 'recalibrated' overnight, and I'm sure that they will be when the timing is right!                                                                  The other thing is, because of the propaganda, dogma and tribalism, we now experience all around daily, i have found that it's really given me a greater insight and understanding into history and of it's many dubious characters. Im very happy about that... However, i find it has had the opposite effect when looking forward - because the future suddenly becomes a more scary proposition when you come to mistrust your politicians motives and abilities, and moreover those of your fellow society, journalists, etc... Oh well, I keep having to remind myself that it is better to be forewarned... particularly crucial in fact when in the investment accumulation phase! (slight thread detour, but bought it back on topic right at the end!!)

[sancho panza]

On 01/06/2021 at 18:50, Democorruptcy said:

Amerman has done a piece on it:

Climate Change & Court-Ordered Inflation

cracking read there DM

'On the simplest level, the first level of inflation is the increase in the number of dollars that it takes each year to buy energy, whether it be gasoline, or natural gas, or the cost of a kilowatt hour of electricity. The second level is to multiply each year's increase by the previous year's multiplication. Nine straight years of 6.5% inflation increases energy prices by 76%, while nine years of 10% inflation increases energy prices by 136%, and nine years of 15% inflation increases energy prices by 252%.

The price increases would not be constrained to direct energy use. Once it gets going, inflation always wants to go forth and multiply, and then multiply again, it is the nature of the beast.

Even without direct judicial decrees, the cost of food goes up because the cost of energy goes up, and it takes a lot of energy to produce food.

The cost of everything that needs to be transported goes up as well, and this applies not just to gasoline, but to the charges involved in transporting the goods when using electric vehicles.'

 

On 01/06/2021 at 21:46, Cattle Prod said:

Seen a few posts here about 'wish I didn't put so much in oil, potash did better' etc, and that's fair enough. But its also hindsight. @DurhamBorn was at pains to tell us that there was no way to know which sector will run, so have a few of them. Even us here are hating on oil a bit which as a contrarian makes me all warm and fuzzy. A bit like yhe March 2020 lows.

What's happening in oil re. ESG requirements is just astonishing, it's pretty much throwing petrol on the fire. I don't know when oil (and gas) will run, and I really don't care. My conviction that it will, seriously run, just gets stronger and stronger. I now see where DB was getting his $300 from, he was mapping in all this crap that I hadn't seen yet.

Example. Not alone is the likes of XOM going to be hamstrung in its own production. Its going to be restricted in its R&D. And the tech from the big companies is what grows the rest of the industry. As in, all of it. And not just including national oil companies like Aramco, but especially them. Hurt these supermajor companies, you hurt the entire complex.

Good luck when you really need the stuff, its going to cost you. 

The more I examine the thesis the more I like the trade.I have to declare we're balls deep in oil&gas.

I'm guilty of the should have put more into potash type thoughts but on reflection,the reason I opted to prioritize energy investment is that it is the most fundamental to life.Without energy,food and water don't get to homes.

As I sit here and learn about oil from you ie conventional,shale,inventories,demand,supply constraints etc,the more compelling thsoe investments become to my family's security.I was recently explaining to Mrs P that to buy a hosue we'd have to surrender some of our oil stocks and at the moment,given the price level we're in at,I'm just not willing to do it given the way the oilies look like the BAT's trade from 2000...

 

[Loki]

14 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's as simple as this: 'settled' or 'consensus' is anti-science. Its about open debate, challenge refinement experiment, repeatability. The balance of evidence is that our activity is affecting climate. Its just not discussed anymore whether this is a problem or not because the normal scientific progression has been seized by others for various reasons. @planit alluded to it up thread. Be very sceptical when science reaches 'consensus', there should be no such thing (see: SAGE and covid-19).

I've used Copernicus challenging an earth centred solar system as an example before. Maybe Einstein is a better example, for he proved Newton's theories at least partially wrong, hundreds of years later. Who the f**k would argue with gravity? A good scientist would. And an apple falling from a tree is a lot simpler than multivariate climate models.

Maybe I'm old school, but the problem I see is that we won't actually get to the root of the problem without healthy challenge and opposing debate. It's just dogma now.

This has been debunked, by fact checkers.

 

[sancho panza]

On 30/05/2021 at 19:26, Hancock said:

Cheers, this is the thing when you're looking to put in the money that was set aside for a house its going to take more balls then when i was putting SIPP money into the markets as to be honest i was playing with that money as if i'd found it. Now the SIPP is going to be 150k in the coming weeks, i'm starting to realise it'd not be so easy to earn again, and 150K at my age (46) could be all i need to put into it if i leave if for another 14 years.

I know in 5+ years oil, energy etc will perform far better than a £375k 2 bed terrace in Winchester ... but its the having the balls, to time my move, when everything is looking a bit toppy at the moment ... and the people who Sancho, yourself, and several others have followed for a long time are all predicting impending Armageddon. 

Think i will set up a couple of £5k ladders for BP and Shell  starting at 270 and 1250 to get the ball rolling. Fucked will i be buying Infrastrata and crap like that with this money!

obviously there' s huge dyodd warning here,however,that bit in bold right there is where I am tbh.

I posted some charts recently showing BATs/BLT from 2000.They actually rose through a 705 broad market drop.That's value investing and that's what a  lot of teh chat on this thread is taken up with.

There are issues in terms of whetehr we get a deflationary 'big kahuna ' type wave washing through markets,I certainly think it's a given we'll see the likes of Tesla 70% off peak and a lot more big tech besides.Whetehr we will see the run down in oilies we got last year is a thing I'm beginning to doubt.

Housing markets look frazzled imho and far more susceptible to a BK type wave washing through the levereaged residential and commercial landlords.

Our average price for RDSB as a family isn't far from where we are now £12.00-13.00,BP slightly below £3 somewhere around but for me these were potentially generational buys I might pass onto my kids if the worst happens in ten years.Our little family unit works so that if anything happens to me,the dividends will be flowing while my Mum/Mrs P start working through the book of instructions I've left them.(Generational buys being things you could hold 15-20 years+)

Having said that if we get a super spike in the oilies,I might sell them if I can be sure I'll be able to buy more back but given RDSB's 2008 low was £15 it's got to be a sure trade if tehy're under that.

[ThoughtCriminal]

17 hours ago, Hancock said:

My mam and dad have been looking for the last few years at Newcastle coastal prices, but the last year has been insane ... trying not to exaggerate but its probably 15-20% rises in certain places ... when the average worker in Newcastle area works for the govt in one form or another.

No idea south of the river, but aren't even the better places around Teesside relatively expensive. (i was about to use the word "posh" as opposed to "better", but then realised you're not allowed to put "posh" in the same sentence as Smoggland)

My view is its either got to be a better parts of Durham, York, Newcastle or if you like walking then Northumberland ... everywhere else is crap in Northern England. A southerner would be like a duck out of water if they went to some old pit village/town like Blyth

Fucking hell H, steady on. What if I had feelings? 😂

 

Go to Whitley bay if you want to see Insanity. 750k for a bang average sea front terrace. 

 

Agree with DB, it's Durham and teesside where the value is, even then parts of teesside are going nuts. 

 

Northumbria is cheaper and stunningly beautiful. 

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

obviously there' s huge dyodd warning here,however,that bit in bold right there is where I am tbh.

I posted some charts recently showing BATs/BLT from 2000.They actually rose through a 705 broad market drop.That's value investing and that's what a  lot of teh chat on this thread is taken up with.

There are issues in terms of whetehr we get a deflationary 'big kahuna ' type wave washing through markets,I certainly think it's a given we'll see the likes of Tesla 70% off peak and a lot more big tech besides.Whetehr we will see the run down in oilies we got last year is a thing I'm beginning to doubt.

Housing markets look frazzled imho and far more susceptible to a BK type wave washing through the levereaged residential and commercial landlords.

Our average price for RDSB as a family isn't far from where we are now £12.00-13.00,BP slightly below £3 somewhere around but for me these were potentially generational buys I might pass onto my kids if the worst happens in ten years.Our little family unit works so that if anything happens to me,the dividends will be flowing while my Mum/Mrs P start working through the book of instructions I've left them.(Generational buys being things you could hold 15-20 years+)

Having said that if we get a super spike in the oilies,I might sell them if I can be sure I'll be able to buy more back but given RDSB's 2008 low was £15 it's got to be a sure trade if tehy're under that.

I'm working at the moment so my body is away from the internet, thus mind is away from investing .... though my insomnia meant i watched David Hunters latest 30 minute interview where he's still sticking to his BK scenario.

But since i've made the decision to emigrate, i am contemplating sticking £50,000 in BP, if i can get it for £3, and £50,000 in RDSB if i can get it for £12.50 .... which is about the levels i got them for when laddering ... bit of a gamble sticking them in 2 companies but will still have circa £150,000 should a BK happen.

I did post last week that i got the perception the people on this topic, were starting to get a sense of FOMO and weren't so certain about a BK, do wonder if this way of thinking is correct as the good thing with having a mind is you can change it ... or if its a touch of group think going on.

Googles new shares search showed Barrick is merely up 20% in 5 years, half tempted to drop 10k in there as well!
https://www.google.com/search?q=barrick+gold+shares&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB864GB864&ei=-OK4YL3KKsf4gQaisZnABw&oq=barrick+gold+s&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYADIFCAAQkQIyCwgAELEDEIMBEJECMgUIABCRAjICCAAyAggAMgIIADICCAAyBQgAELEDMgIIADICCAA6BwgAEEcQsAM6BwgAELADEEM6HAguEMcBENEDELADEMgDEEMQiwMQqAMQ0gMQkwI6GQguEMcBENEDELADEMgDEEMQiwMQqAMQ0gM6FwguEMcBENEDEJECEIsDEKgDENIDEJMCOgUIABCLAzoLCAAQsQMQgwEQiwNKBQg4EgExUMcLWKcWYJYpaAFwAngAgAGpAYgB8wKSAQMxLjKYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6yAEPuAECwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz