Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Can we clarify if these apply within ISA/SIPPS or is it just a standard trading account?

A good catch. 

Basically a trading account with no available exemptions applied except the WBEN for the US (this and maybe the Canadian equivalent being the only ones most brokers would support (i.e. do for you)).  I may have done the same for Canada as I show 15% (I can't remember).  The 15% for the US could be 0% in a SIPP as I understand the US Tax folk accept a SIPP as a US equivalent pension.  The other country rates could be reduced if you could claim the tax back via the countries' tax authorities but I don't bother so have sought to show them gross.  Then there is a potential tax reclaim (offset) within your UK tax return for WHT but obviously not if the dividends came from stocks held in a tax wrapper like a SIPP or ISA.  The list however is just WHT rates so ignores all that UK tax side of things.

This is not tax advice and such details are unique to an individual's circumstances so people would need to work this out for themselves and not rely on this post.  The list was meant to show the basic "vanilla" rates I could find on the internet and I posted it for validation purposes as this is a difficult task, especially as what documentation I could find often talks about intercompany, etc dividends rather than specifically dividends to retail investors.  I'm keen to hear from people who have actually received dividends from these countries (note by countries, I understand the general rule is the domicile of the company rather than the stock exchange through which it was purchased, something else to confirm).  There are also variations like receiving scrip rather than a cash dividend which may change the tax position but I have not looked into these aspects.

There are probably other considerations I've missed.  The aim for me is to be aware of relative broad likely WHT rates as my stock selection criteria includes a minimum 3% yield and clearly that is potentially quite different between countries once WHT is considered.  It also highlights the need to consider what type of account to hold what and (given restricted funds in the various accounts), in what priority order.  In that, I find the need to hold only GBP in ISAs a major impediment given the Forex costs but that's another topic.

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

This seems right for WHT as @JimmyTheBruce says 26.5 for France on his divi and thats the same here.Palestine is zero,whats their telco called, TT-CASS ( two tin cans and some string )

[Harley]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Quick Newbie question regarding Stop Loss and Stop Limit orders.

1. I know that a disadvantage with Stop Loss orders is that if the market volatile they can be triggered [and sold] at a price below that specified, how often and by how much [%] does it usually happen?

2. I assume that whilst the advantage of a Stop Limit order is that it avoids the issue in 1. above, is the disadvantage that in such a situation your stock is not sold as it didn't 'stop' at your Limit price?

3. Do most brokers usually charge for these type of orders and how are they usually charged i.e. % or fixed fee, and how long can they remain active for?

Thanks.

My guesses:

1.  Depends very much on the individual stock.

2.  It's usually an AND condition in effect during the main trading hours (although some brokers offer variants) and does what it says on the tin so no disadvantage unless you don't want what's written on the tin!.

3. Mine don't.  That used to be more common but IME less so now.

Important is that the details can vary between brokers.  IB for example offer a slew of configuration options, HL probably not.  There is no standard set of terms so you'll need to read the small print rather than assume things because of their names.

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

This seems right for WHT as @JimmyTheBruce says 26.5 for France on his divi and thats the same here.Palestine is zero,whats their telco called, TT-CASS ( two tin cans and some string )

Thanks for that.  I've updated my list for the changes.  I assume this is for a UK investor, although am worried to see 20% on UK REITs.  It also reminded me that there was talk about some implications from Brexit as the EU was seeking to harmonize rates so there was no discrimination between residents in each member state, something the UK is no longer.

PS:  I think it's for US investors so there may be differences for the UK investor.

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

This seems right for WHT as @JimmyTheBruce says 26.5 for France on his divi and thats the same here.Palestine is zero,whats their telco called, TT-CASS ( two tin cans and some string )

Yes, my recent Total Energies WHT was 26.5%.  In an ISA so I can't claim some of the tax back in my UK return (if I did one) and apparently a bugger to get out of the French.  Plus the forex hit given it's an ISA.  So a cost of doing business to me so something defo to account for when comparing companies domiciled in different countries.

PS:  Total used to offer scrip so this is the first cash div?  At least the div is currently 7.57% (or so depending on where you look!).

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

Many of my stocks are down that sort of amount too (but was a lot worse in March).  However a number of new resource stocks (including US ones) have appeared on my radar (so a material break in price) so I'm just waiting for them to bottom.  At 30% of my portfolio value invested in equity, I'm happy with that!

[feed]

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Yes, my recent Total Energies WHT was 26.5%.  In an ISA so I can't claim some of the tax back in my UK return (if I did one) and apparently a bugger to get out of the French.  Plus the forex hit given it's an ISA.  So a cost of doing business to me so something defo to account for when comparing companies domiciled in different countries.

PS:  Total used to offer scrip so this is the first cash div?  At least the div is currently 7.57% (or so depending on where you look!).

I try to avoid where the tax is high and the fees etc ,but on Orange today i think even after the tax im looking at around 5.45% divi and that will do nicely,if they hold it,but looks fine unless disaster hits.I sold a chunk of Potash today on an average 95% gain over 16 months.I love the sector,but its done really well for me and wanted to broaden out.Iv picked up a few more Telefonica Brasil as well.Plus on Orange i could buy direct shares,no ADR or Crest etc,so a small,but added bonus.

[JMD]

On 19/07/2021 at 18:26, Harley said:

As I mentioned a few days ago - watch the narratives being played.  There's data and there's meta data (data about data).  Same with the news.  There's news and there's news about the news!

I reckon they're trying to pull people back from the ledge and normalise.  Maybe a collection of reasons but surely they went too far with the psyops, partly because they wanted to play with their new toys (like others did with the new "vaccine" tech) and partly because they did not appreciate how inherently malleable the general populace was.  There will be general smoke but that's the guts of it.  Also fits with the characteristic of the Boris regime ("court") of people being able to go off on one only to be reigned in much later.

That farce narrative with the pilot nonsense seemed more of a lead by example play to capture the anger and dissipate it by then yielding.  Takes the sting out of people.  Aka "a controlled demolition"!  Of course you need more than one narrative so I'll add a switch today in giving air time to a differences in talk between Starmer and the Cons.  The news actually played a soundbite of Starmer about being premature with the "relaxing" of lockdown, something that hasn't happened for a while.  Again, fosters a sense of normality (the old discourse).  I could also add the emerging psyops narratives themselves and the demonisation of the "Independent" SAGE, etc, plus the airtime given to Sir Ian Brady.

I'd like to see it as I have seen a few times in a prior life with the accountants moving in to deal with a failed newish CEO (Boris) who's run out of road but sadly that may just be a hope of mine.  It could equally be just a freeze-thaw-repeat tactic to wear down the populace (plus some more destabilising hypernormalisation).  It could also be quieting down one front in order to open a new one - the financial one!

We only get the news (narratives) they want us to get.  The trick is to reverse engineer that while staying sane!

Could someone please enlighten me as to the point of (so-called) 'Independent' SAGE? ie Their messaging appears even more confusing than the SAGE 'Classic' version!!

...Also, not wishing to alarm anyone, but i now read that this outfit (Indi Sage) is apparently intending to continue on post-pandemic. However, their remit will then widen to cover climate change... and the real kicker is that senior reps from the IEA will be on the executive board... all this looks very worrying? ...Any so any hope for future debate about climate change/alternatives/policies is about to be extinguished forever, and ever, Amen!!

[Sugarlips]

Lyn on top form as usual, suggests scooping up cheap hard assets here whilst the market is having a tantrum (silver, BTC, oil etc) so long as you have a 3-5 year timeline.

 

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Lyn on top form as usual, suggests scooping up cheap hard assets here whilst the market is having a tantrum (silver, BTC, oil etc) so long as you have a 3-5 year timeline.

 

yes, but I think that if we are right re the increasing uselessness of the vaccines in doing what governments have claimed, we'll see another shit the bed moment @JoeDavola once market fear kicks in.

Let alone what happens if ADE or widespread side effects start to rampage in autumn/winter in Europe and the North Americas.  My prediction right now is that we are on a knife edge re reality imposing itself over the media and government propaganda re the real impact of the vaccines and the virus, and once that becomes clearer there will be a panic, then a recovery as a new lie is set in place, and then the mother of all panicks once one government breaks ranks and starts to tell the truth - the virus cannot be contained by vaccines and has to be treated as endemic.  Singapore already did this to some extent.  

Add to that increasing civil unrest over the fascistic controls being introduced, and it could be a very interesting 9 months ahead.  What I do believe though is that the mother of all booms will happen once reality/good guys win, and that's where the oilies will become multi baggers in line with DB's long term thesis.

I think I'll buy back in with the cash float if XOM hits 40-45ish, GDXJ 35, etc etc.  Then hopefully in spring, a run up to new highs before - if the end of the world starts - a sell off of miners and the like before the BK.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

yes, but I think that if we are right re the increasing uselessness of the vaccines in doing what governments have claimed, we'll see another shit the bed moment @JoeDavola once market fear kicks in.

Let alone what happens if ADE or widespread side effects start to rampage in autumn/winter in Europe and the North Americas.  My prediction right now is that we are on a knife edge re reality imposing itself over the media and government propaganda re the real impact of the vaccines and the virus, and once that becomes clearer there will be a panic, then a recovery as a new lie is set in place, and then the mother of all panicks once one government breaks ranks and starts to tell the truth - the virus cannot be contained by vaccines and has to be treated as endemic.  Singapore already did this to some extent.  

Add to that increasing civil unrest over the fascistic controls being introduced, and it could be a very interesting 9 months ahead.  What I do believe though is that the mother of all booms will happen once reality/good guys win, and that's where the oilies will become multi baggers in line with DB's long term thesis.

I think I'll buy back in with the cash float if XOM hits 40-45ish, GDXJ 35, etc etc.  Then hopefully in spring, a run up to new highs before - if the end of the world starts - a sell off of miners and the like before the BK.

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

[wherebee]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

I agree 100% that they are reducing symptoms for current variants.  However, I am not sure that the markets, or most people, will see a situation where the vaccines do not reduce your chance of infection compared with unvaxxed, but do reduce symptoms, as what they were sold.  If, as some doctors are saying, the vaxxed will also be more vulnerable to variants in future (as they evolve to infect the largest pool of victims, which is now the vaxxed in the UK), that will again hit perceptions of 'winning'.

Add into that the side effects are growing in number and knowledge.

Add into that the possibility for ADE (which I don't known enough about to know if it is a real risk).

In short, the market recovered from 2020 based on 'vaccines = beating the virus and back to normal'.  It looks to me like the story is 'vaccines = you have less chance of death but you'll still be unable to travel or spend money like you used to' and it's all a bit market destroying.

[dnb24]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

Compare this year to last year- hospitalisation and deaths fell off a cliff during summer too in 2020. This Autumn/winter will be the acid test of vaccines- however conclusions on their effectiveness will Have to take into account the “dry tinder” that was taken out of the population last year, and the “herd immunity”. 
If there is anything approaching normal excess deaths this winter or exceed normal excess deaths then conclusion on the vaccines would indicate they were useless or they are actually causing people to die.

[MrXxxx]

28 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Conversely from what I can gather the vaccines are working. They don’t completely stop you from catching Covid but they do reduce the symptoms. Hospitalisations and deaths have fallen off a cliff. It’s now a very contagious but fairly mild flu and is being treated as such. 

See my comment in the Covid thread, it isn't the vaccines that are working, but the circumstances around them that are changing I.e the weaker individuals were purged out in the first round...you partly allude to this in your final comment.

[MrXxxx]

28 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I agree 100% that they are reducing symptoms for current variants.  However, I am not sure that the markets, or most people, will see a situation where the vaccines do not reduce your chance of infection compared with unvaxxed, but do reduce symptoms, as what they were sold.  If, as some doctors are saying, the vaxxed will also be more vulnerable to variants in future (as they evolve to infect the largest pool of victims, which is now the vaxxed in the UK), that will again hit perceptions of 'winning'.

Add into that the side effects are growing in number and knowledge.

Add into that the possibility for ADE (which I don't known enough about to know if it is a real risk).

In short, the market recovered from 2020 based on 'vaccines = beating the virus and back to normal'.  It looks to me like the story is 'vaccines = you have less chance of death but you'll still be unable to travel or spend money like you used to' and it's all a bit market destroying.

Agree with this and your previous post. The markets will initially `wet the bed` in the near future when they realise that `we` haven't solved the issue, but will recover when `we` realise `we` can't, and can only manage it.

[Castlevania]

24 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Compare this year to last year- hospitalisation and deaths fell off a cliff during summer too in 2020. This Autumn/winter will be the acid test of vaccines- however conclusions on their effectiveness will Have to take into account the “dry tinder” that was taken out of the population last year, and the “herd immunity”. 
If there is anything approaching normal excess deaths this winter or exceed normal excess deaths then conclusion on the vaccines would indicate they were useless or they are actually causing people to die.

Cases dropped significantly last Summer. What we’re seeing is a huge increase in cases and both hospitalisation and deaths collapsing. It does suggest that the vaccines are working.

As for whether there’s any need to take it. If you’re old or fat you should take the vaccine. If you don’t fit into those categories then you never had anything to fear from Covid.

[Boon]

To me (and I have no real working knowledge), I feel the response is making it out to be worse than it is. 

We have as many cases as the peak, but then again we are running 3x as more tests per day.

The death definition is quite unreliable - 28 days within a positive covid test. Using that, it's hardly likely to drop to 0.

Even hospitalisations may be unreliable - the criteria for presenting yourself to hospital may be lower now because of fear of what might develop. 

Historically is there a precedent for things to get worse? I thought the natural development for a virus was to want to improve its chances of survival, so being deadly doesn't help it.

So it will evolve into being 'just' the flu. Flu is fucking nasty to have, and on occasion it does kill people. But we never shit our pants about that. 

 

[BoSon]

UK borrowing ever more to 'pay' the monthly interest. I'm sure it's sustainable and they're paying the interest proper rather than compounding interest debt like a runaway train.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57912347

 

Quote

 

UK borrowing leads to record interest payments

The UK government spent a record £8.7bn in interest on repaying its debts last month, official figures show.

The figure was more than three times as much as the £2.7bn in interest payments seen in June 2020.

The reason was a surge in inflation, which raised the value of index-linked government bonds.

Overall borrowing - the difference between spending and tax income - was £22.8bn, which was £5.5bn lower than June last year.

However, the figure was the second-highest for June since records began.

Borrowing has been hitting record levels, with billions being spent on measures such as furlough payments.

But the cost of servicing all that borrowing has been rising too. Government gilts, for instance, are uprated in line with Retail Price Index inflation, which is higher than the headline consumer inflation rate.

However, analysts stressed that despite the record payment, debt servicing costs as a share of GDP remain low by historic standards.

 

 

 

[Barnsey]

[Hardhat]

14 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Lyn on top form as usual, suggests scooping up cheap hard assets here whilst the market is having a tantrum (silver, BTC, oil etc) so long as you have a 3-5 year timeline.

 

The bit between about 27:00 - 35:00 about the dollar's status as reserve currency is fantastic, really well explained.

[JMD]

On 19/07/2021 at 14:58, headrow said:

Not buying this dip , just sat here watching which gets hurt the most waiting for them to reach my buy point , if i miss out then i miss out.

Ashmore , Phoenix Group , DS Smith and AG Barr is what i want but i want them at least 20% cheaper than they are trading at today. 

Headrow, can i ask why you like Pheonix Group? I have just done a quick read up, (formerly Pearl group) and mostly private/company pensions, LT savings, over 50's products, etc, owns SunLife. 

I know this is not a stock-picking thread - however, I am asking because the Life Insurance sector is generally seen here as a risky next-cycle play, so was interested if you maybe had seen something particularly interesting about this company? 

[leonardratso]

More contrarian than a contrarian is a fake contrarian - hahahaha, hancock?

[JMD]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

I agree 100% that they are reducing symptoms for current variants.  However, I am not sure that the markets, or most people, will see a situation where the vaccines do not reduce your chance of infection compared with unvaxxed, but do reduce symptoms, as what they were sold.  If, as some doctors are saying, the vaxxed will also be more vulnerable to variants in future (as they evolve to infect the largest pool of victims, which is now the vaxxed in the UK), that will again hit perceptions of 'winning'.

Add into that the side effects are growing in number and knowledge.

Add into that the possibility for ADE (which I don't known enough about to know if it is a real risk).

In short, the market recovered from 2020 based on 'vaccines = beating the virus and back to normal'.  It looks to me like the story is 'vaccines = you have less chance of death but you'll still be unable to travel or spend money like you used to' and it's all a bit market destroying.

I think ADE (if its a thing in the first place), possible vaccine 'side effects', and even most so-called long-covid, are more a result of the NHS closing down for over a year. ie Untreated medical complaints. And that's not even taking into account the more agressive type of undiagnosed diseases - such as cancer, etc - all of which are yet to emerge as further 'health crises' over future years.

The pan-ic-demic experiment of massively restricting NHS care has never been run before. Plus if we factor in the current long waiting times, then by the time many patients are seen by their relevant medical specialists - we may have actually introduced a 2/3 year time lag between symptom and treatment for many patients - that's effectively a death sentence for cancers or other agressive diseases... stupid political ideas cause crazy results (i get that) - however, where i ask were the 'sane doctors' during this time? Even now they are eerily silent!!

 

As an aside, I note that Dominic Cummings states he is working behind the scenes to help create a new political party. He is being smeared from all sides of course, but if he can effectively tap into the horror show we know is looming ahead, then the lib/lab/con or 'useless duffers' as Cummings calls them, should be very scared. I merely point this out because for me, it is part of the newly emerging political macro landscape.              

  

 

[Boon]

Dominic Bummings should do what he does best, and that is simply work in the background, unseen. He cannot be a public face. 

But I'm not sure anyone could get past the Conservatives in the short-term - all they need to do is be better than Labour, and job is done.

Look how much shit has been thrown at Johnson and nothing has stuck..... people would still support him even if it turned out he was corrupt. 

It seems to me because of a few things, his public facade is of a dumbo so incompetence is expected, and most people that make up the voters are heavily selfish of their own interests.

Thus an alternative policy to reduce inequality, perhaps by taking measures to reduce stupidly high house prices, would just be unpopular. A bit like people pretending they want to be green, but when asked if they want to pay for it, the answer changes.

I think inequality will have to become worse before anything gets better. But that might be years away.