Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It is an excellent point, those fields will not be there. Look at what BP has just said, no investment this cycle. XOM production at 20 year lows. Trust me, if those guys are not going to explore and use their R&D to push the exploration boundaries and tech, no one else will. I'm watching Total and ENI closely, they are better explorers now, but there is just nothing much of size coming through.

And remember, if they found one tomorrow, we won't see the oil from it for 5,7 or even 10 years.

Very interesting. I think you said Equinor was another one also not exploring/cutting budgets?

Is there perhaps a really 'outstanding' oil company/s (more by luck than design perhaps) that's got a great pipeline (excuse pun!) of developed/reserves, and which are due to come on stream before say 2025? ...I ask because it might be wise to pivot toward them (and in my case away from BP; my 2nd largest holding).

 

4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

 

When i was a carpenter there was a asian family that my boss used to do alot work for in a beautiful huge house in a nice area everyone seem to have their own parts of the house and all working good jobs

 

Actually a great family very close and like you say all the money came into the house 

A family staying 'close to the source, remaining decomplex'... i'm convinced this thread would concur wholeheartedly!!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There are some on here with a lot,some with very little,what binds us all is a desire for enlightenment and to use what we learn to make a better future for ourselves.

In that vein, I'm always happy to help people make rods, if not give them fish.  Not that I'm brill or anything, just been around a long time and wish I had had some advice of that kind when I needed it and actually before so I got into all of this earlier.  It took me a long time, too long, with a lot of it wasted.  Most of what I or anyone says though is not really advice, just opinion, as your self is a key component to the whole thing - horses for courses.  So when I say IMO it's good to look at charts as much as listen to talking heads I say so ready to expand if requested.  I spent some time helping people of all ages, genders, and races reach their true potential in one field (one I was better qualified at!) and it was the best of days.

PS:  As clarification, "lot" = bruises not money!

[Bricormortis]

 

Yuan now lowest against dollar since 2008.

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, JMD said:

A family staying 'close to the source, remaining decomplex'... i'm convinced this thread would concur wholeheartedly!!

To tell a story.  We started an allotment and are in our second year.  It took a lot of time to prepare from the groundworks up.  We also had much too learn.  We could have jacked it in at any time and nipped down to Aldi for a succession of quickies!

But we didn't and this is our second year.  A lot further to go but we are on the path and we know it's a good one.  I sit there and eat our veg, often with very little else because it tastes so good both in its actual taste and in the "taste" of honest and earnt  satisfaction.  I now understand the Italians and their often simple but delicious food.

You can't compare it to the supermarket.  That seems the obvious comparison but it is not.  The red pill enables you to see that.  It shines a light on the concept of "value".  The supermarket's value is stripped down to one about availability and price.  The other is a broader and more fulfilling one, if not immediately obvious unless tried.

So yep, decomplex and stay close to the source.  Keep it simple and keep it honest!

PS:  That's what I love about finance - it's never just about finance!

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think you could be playing with fire selling out if you never get back in and they do a BATs/BHP/AAL etc from 2000

Agreed.  That's why I've decided go sell down but never out of key positions.  Proper portfolio (asset) diversification should (may!) cover what's retained.

[ThoughtCriminal]

These people are fucking insane. 

[arrow]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

we know demand is returning and that the Eastern half of the world contains 2 billion people waiting to consume the stuff in greater proportions whilst the Western half grows old and plateaus demogrpahically.

There is a potential here for nasty shock to the Western world from the very market that they believe to be dead in the water-oil.

 

The west reducing exploration and production will force them into competing with everyone else for oil/gas supply in the future. The long term price will go up.

 

"India state refiners are set to invest 2 trillion rupees ($26.96 billion) to boost oil refining capacity by 20% in Asia's third-largest economy by 2025, junior oil minister, Rameswar Teli, told lawmakers on Wednesday.

India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer has refining capacity of about 249 million tonnes a year, equivalent to about 5 million barrels per day (bpd). Refining capacity is expected to climb to 298 million tonnes a year by 2025, Teli said in a written reply.

"The refining industry has been modernized and upgraded continuously with the indigenous and imported technologies for refining cost reduction" and product upgrading, he said.

The country's top refiner, Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), in its latest annual report said it would boost its annual oil refining capacity to 87.55 million tonnes by 2024/25 from the current 70.05 million tonnes to meet growing demand for petroleum products.

India will be the main driver of rising demand for energy over the next two decades, accounting for 25% of global growth, and is set to overtake the European Union as the world's third-biggest energy consumer by 2030, the International Energy Agency said in a report earlier this year. 

It is also nearly doubling its 3.2 million tonnes a year petrochemical capacity by adding another 3.1 million tonnes by 2024/25."

[sancho panza]

Private equity deals buying real assets....a thread theme and mentioned recently in Bill Blaine's Macrovoices podcast

Also ref the pepsi deal,hints at margin compression in the branded sphere.Time will tell.

#wontendwellforfootball

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/cvc-to-invest-3-2-billion-in-soccer-league-that-s-home-to-messi

Spain’s La Liga has agreed a €2.7bn (£2.3bn) deal with CVC that could see private equity involved in the running of a large European football league for the first time.

La Liga, which manages the top two divisions of Spanish football, said on Wednesday it will create a new business that will take control of most of its activities, in which CVC Capital Partners will hold a 10% stake. The deal will value La Liga at €24.3bn, it said.

Clubs will receive about 90% of the funds from CVC’s investment, including money for women’s football.

CVC already has extensive interests in sport, including a deal that it reached in March to invest £365m in rugby’s annual Six Nations tournament between the top European nations. It has also been involved in volleyball, tennis, Moto GP and Formula One.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/pepsi-squeezes-3-3bn-from-tropicana-in-private-equity-deal-12371731

PepsiCo has agreed a $3.3bn (£2.4bn) deal to offload a majority stake in Tropicana and other juice brands.

The New York-based drinks and snack giant said it would retain a 39% interest in the joint venture with PAI Partners of France.

It had bought Tropicana in 1998 for $3.3bn.

Other brands in the agreement include Naked Juice - a US-focused name.

Analysts said the deal reflected declining sales of sugary fruit juices since the early 2000s, with households choosing to buy water or other no - or low-calorie - drinks instead amid efforts to tackle obesity.

The businesses made about $3bn in net revenue for PepsiCo last year, with operating profit margins below the group's as a whole.

[arrow]

9 hours ago, dnb24 said:

for anyone interested in geopolitics and the movement of the US out of Afghan and China moving into Afghan - an interesting piece -
https://www.9dashline.com/article/will-china-get-embroiled-in-the-graveyard-of-empires

Another battleground for the US v China cold war. The Taliban allying with "communists" who are herding muslims into concentration camps. Couldn't make it up. Expect the even harder line anti-Taliban muslims to have a constant stream of the latest weaponry courtesy of the USA.

From Nikkei Asia, so pretty mainstream now the view of a new cold war.

"China has long shielded Pakistan from international pressure over its harboring of terrorist groups, including blocking United Nations Security Council sanctions against Pakistani terrorists and opposing moving its close ally from the gray to black list of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force, the global terrorist-financing watchdog. In fact, China has often praised Pakistan's commitment to the fight against terrorism.

But after nine of its dam engineers were killed this month in a terrorist-triggered bus explosion in Pakistan, China changed its tune. It has demanded that Pakistan, in the words of Premier Li Keqiang, "use all necessary means" against terrorists and bring "the perpetrators to justice." Beijing has squarely blamed America's "hasty withdrawal" from Afghanistan for creating cross-border volatility and insecurity.

The U.S. must be stopped, according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, from "creating more problems and dumping the burden on regional countries." The U.S. effectively ended its 20-year Afghanistan War on July 1 when it secretly pulled out at night from the sprawling Bagram Air Base, which had long served as the staging ground for operations in the country.

In private, Chinese officials cannot be unhappy with the exit of a defeated America. It not only opens greater space for China's expansionism but also shows how U.S. power is in decline.

The bus explosion, however, has made China realize that the fallout from the deteriorating Afghanistan situation threatens its regional interests. Wang has proposed that Pakistan -- the largest recipient of Chinese financing under President Xi Jinping's marquee Belt and Road Initiative -- collaborate with Beijing when it comes to Afghanistan and help "defend regional peace together."

The fallout offers China a rationale for exploiting the void in Afghanistan -- and the country's vast mineral wealth. In addition, Afghanistan's location at the crossroads of Central, South and Southwest Asia makes it geopolitically attractive for Beijing, which wants to link Kabul with the Belt and Road's flagship project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Advancing such interests hinges on violence abating in Afghanistan, which explains why Xi has called for a political solution to the country's long-standing conflict.

China's strategic ambitions, however, underscore a jarring paradox. Beijing views Islamic extremism as a pressing threat and, in the largest mass incarceration of people on religious grounds since the Nazi era, is holding more than a million detainees in a Muslim gulag. Yet it has built cozy ties with the Taliban, the marauding Islamist force created in the mid-1990s by Pakistani intelligence to help Pakistan call the shots in Afghanistan.

Atheist, communist China has for more than half a century been close to Pakistan, the first Islamic republic of the postcolonial era. Likewise, it has become strange bedfellows with the Taliban, responsible for the world's deadliest terrorist attacks. Such is the transactional approach that has long been a hallmark of Chinese foreign policy.

When the Taliban seized power in 1996 and declared an Islamic caliphate, China established a closer relationship with the regime than any other non-Muslim country, launching flights between Xinjiang's capital, Urumqi and Kabul. On the same day two airplanes crashed into New York's World Trade Center in 2001, visiting Chinese officials signed an agreement for greater economic and technical cooperation with the Taliban.

After the Taliban was ousted from power by a U.S.-led military invasion, Beijing quietly maintained ties with the militia in Pakistan, where the Taliban leadership took refuge. To this day, the Taliban's top leaders remain ensconced in Pakistan, even as their fighters make gains on the ground in Afghanistan.

Much is being made of the potential for the Afghan conflict to spill over into Xinjiang. But just as China's secure borders have for years forestalled any trouble in Xinjiang from growing jihadism in Pakistan, intensifying conflict in Afghanistan is unlikely to affect stability in China's far west. China's short, 76-km frontier with Afghanistan comprises mainly impassable high-altitude terrain.

China already has thousands of its own troops in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which borders Xinjiang. It also has deployed its own military units in another potential corridor to Xinjiang, Tajikistan, including soldiers on the Tajik-Afghan border.

As the bus explosion illustrates, China's concerns are essentially centered on its economic interests in Pakistan and Central Asia -- especially resource-rich Tajikistan -- and the safety of Chinese nationals working on projects there. The threat of terrorism, however, provides a convenient cover for Beijing to advance its geopolitical interests.

With the U.S. in retreat, China is likely to increase its strategic footprint in Afghanistan by leveraging its strategic relationship with the Taliban's main backer, Pakistan, and its own long-standing ties with that militia.

To co-opt the Taliban, China has already dangled the prospect of providing the militia the two things it needs to govern Afghanistan in whole or in part -- acquiescence to its rule, if not formal recognition, and much-needed infrastructure and economic development assistance. And the Taliban, rising to the bait, is going out of its way to assuage China's concerns. Clearly, a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan will not only be under Pakistan's sway but also greatly aid China's designs.

America's exit has opened the path for an opportunistic China to make strategic inroads into Afghanistan and deepen its penetration of Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia.

 

[nirvana]

15 minutes ago, arrow said:

China to make strategic inroads into Afghanistan

Just in from the Afghan tourist board....

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, arrow said:

Another battleground for the US v China cold war. The Taliban allying with "communists" who are herding muslims into concentration camps. Couldn't make it up. Expect the even harder line anti-Taliban muslims to have a constant stream of the latest weaponry courtesy of the USA.

From Nikkei Asia, so pretty mainstream now the view of a new cold war.

"China has long shielded Pakistan from international pressure over its harboring of terrorist groups, including blocking United Nations Security Council sanctions against Pakistani terrorists and opposing moving its close ally from the gray to black list of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force, the global terrorist-financing watchdog. In fact, China has often praised Pakistan's commitment to the fight against terrorism.

But after nine of its dam engineers were killed this month in a terrorist-triggered bus explosion in Pakistan, China changed its tune. It has demanded that Pakistan, in the words of Premier Li Keqiang, "use all necessary means" against terrorists and bring "the perpetrators to justice." Beijing has squarely blamed America's "hasty withdrawal" from Afghanistan for creating cross-border volatility and insecurity.

The U.S. must be stopped, according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, from "creating more problems and dumping the burden on regional countries." The U.S. effectively ended its 20-year Afghanistan War on July 1 when it secretly pulled out at night from the sprawling Bagram Air Base, which had long served as the staging ground for operations in the country.

In private, Chinese officials cannot be unhappy with the exit of a defeated America. It not only opens greater space for China's expansionism but also shows how U.S. power is in decline.

The bus explosion, however, has made China realize that the fallout from the deteriorating Afghanistan situation threatens its regional interests. Wang has proposed that Pakistan -- the largest recipient of Chinese financing under President Xi Jinping's marquee Belt and Road Initiative -- collaborate with Beijing when it comes to Afghanistan and help "defend regional peace together."

The fallout offers China a rationale for exploiting the void in Afghanistan -- and the country's vast mineral wealth. In addition, Afghanistan's location at the crossroads of Central, South and Southwest Asia makes it geopolitically attractive for Beijing, which wants to link Kabul with the Belt and Road's flagship project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Advancing such interests hinges on violence abating in Afghanistan, which explains why Xi has called for a political solution to the country's long-standing conflict.

China's strategic ambitions, however, underscore a jarring paradox. Beijing views Islamic extremism as a pressing threat and, in the largest mass incarceration of people on religious grounds since the Nazi era, is holding more than a million detainees in a Muslim gulag. Yet it has built cozy ties with the Taliban, the marauding Islamist force created in the mid-1990s by Pakistani intelligence to help Pakistan call the shots in Afghanistan.

Atheist, communist China has for more than half a century been close to Pakistan, the first Islamic republic of the postcolonial era. Likewise, it has become strange bedfellows with the Taliban, responsible for the world's deadliest terrorist attacks. Such is the transactional approach that has long been a hallmark of Chinese foreign policy.

When the Taliban seized power in 1996 and declared an Islamic caliphate, China established a closer relationship with the regime than any other non-Muslim country, launching flights between Xinjiang's capital, Urumqi and Kabul. On the same day two airplanes crashed into New York's World Trade Center in 2001, visiting Chinese officials signed an agreement for greater economic and technical cooperation with the Taliban.

After the Taliban was ousted from power by a U.S.-led military invasion, Beijing quietly maintained ties with the militia in Pakistan, where the Taliban leadership took refuge. To this day, the Taliban's top leaders remain ensconced in Pakistan, even as their fighters make gains on the ground in Afghanistan.

Much is being made of the potential for the Afghan conflict to spill over into Xinjiang. But just as China's secure borders have for years forestalled any trouble in Xinjiang from growing jihadism in Pakistan, intensifying conflict in Afghanistan is unlikely to affect stability in China's far west. China's short, 76-km frontier with Afghanistan comprises mainly impassable high-altitude terrain.

China already has thousands of its own troops in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which borders Xinjiang. It also has deployed its own military units in another potential corridor to Xinjiang, Tajikistan, including soldiers on the Tajik-Afghan border.

As the bus explosion illustrates, China's concerns are essentially centered on its economic interests in Pakistan and Central Asia -- especially resource-rich Tajikistan -- and the safety of Chinese nationals working on projects there. The threat of terrorism, however, provides a convenient cover for Beijing to advance its geopolitical interests.

With the U.S. in retreat, China is likely to increase its strategic footprint in Afghanistan by leveraging its strategic relationship with the Taliban's main backer, Pakistan, and its own long-standing ties with that militia.

To co-opt the Taliban, China has already dangled the prospect of providing the militia the two things it needs to govern Afghanistan in whole or in part -- acquiescence to its rule, if not formal recognition, and much-needed infrastructure and economic development assistance. And the Taliban, rising to the bait, is going out of its way to assuage China's concerns. Clearly, a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan will not only be under Pakistan's sway but also greatly aid China's designs.

America's exit has opened the path for an opportunistic China to make strategic inroads into Afghanistan and deepen its penetration of Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia.

 

Funny in a not funny way. I wondered to myself whether the inflection point and cycle change where wealth and power could move east would be a perfect time to withdraw from the middle east and give the Russians and Chinese a massive problem on their own doorstep.

Cunning, the deep state is.

As I mention cryptically to my friends sometimes. We are living through moments where what 'was' ceases to be, and what hasn't been comes to pass.

I think it's the same for everything.

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It is an excellent point, those fields will not be there. Look at what BP has just said, no investment this cycle. XOM production at 20 year lows. Trust me, if those guys are not going to explore and use their R&D to push the exploration boundaries and tech, no one else will. I'm watching Total and ENI closely, they are better explorers now, but there is just nothing much of size coming through.

And remember, if they found one tomorrow, we won't see the oil from it for 5,7 or even 10 years.

What about Russia and China? Or are you speaking only of Western oil companies? 

[Bobthebuilder]

On 03/08/2021 at 17:38, sancho panza said:

I know we have some educated leccy types on here.

I remember @Bobthebuilder making a point about electircal boilers sometime ago and the fact that -iirc-if we went all electric then they'd need new infrastructure or some such point(take home for the people at the back like me was ,it ain't gonna happen except a ta price the public won't pay)

Alos froma production side either Bob or @Transistor Man or anyone else,if we do go to EV's only for sale by 2030,is the UK in a positon to handle that in terms of leccy supply/infrastructure?

I hear politicians talking about it like it's flicking a switch on the grid,I'm not so sure.

Hi SP.

Someone else might have to do the calculations to work out total UK consumption.

An average UK household say 2/3 bedder will pull 39 kilowatts per hour in gas output, larger houses considerably more, that's not even taking commercial premises, hotels, pubs, etc into consideration.

The maximum gas KW you can pull from a domestic house gas meter is 70KW. 70,000 watts divided by 230amps (domestic electric supply) = 304 Amps. Your main fuse on the incoming electric supply to the fuse board is 100 Amps. So, roughly 8 average current gas fired homes to 1 that is fully electric.

We will need to rewire the entire infrastructure of the country, with a nuke power station every over street.

It is not going to happen, heat pumps or not.

[planit]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi SP.

Someone else might have to do the calculations to work out total UK consumption.

An average UK household say 2/3 bedder will pull 39 kilowatts per hour in gas output, larger houses considerably more, that's not even taking commercial premises, hotels, pubs, etc into consideration.

The maximum gas KW you can pull from a domestic house gas meter is 70KW. 70,000 watts divided by 230amps (domestic electric supply) = 304 Amps. Your main fuse on the incoming electric supply to the fuse board is 100 Amps. So, roughly 8 average current gas fired homes to 1 that is fully electric.

We will need to rewire the entire infrastructure of the country, with a nuke power station every over street.

It is not going to happen, heat pumps or not.

Yep, obviously they are not on all the time but a really cold day (with no wind LOL) would be insane and heat pumps wouldn't be able to heat the houses.

As you say, it's not going to happen and this needs adding on to my 2.5 times figure for the replacement of petrol and diesel.

In reality, once EV adoption starts gaining traction they will be competing with existing supply and prices will go up. The price equilibrium will dictate the adoption rate of EVs and also the price of hydrogen.

Outcome is the transfer away from fossil fuels will take a long time whilst supply, technology and economics develop.

 

The best thing the government could do would be commission 50 nuclear reactors to try to make the future cost of electricity as low as possible, that would power the transition and make electric supply not the constraining factor. 

If someone could point me in the direction of a serious article that explains where the electricity will come from (or that it won't be needed) I would be grateful. I want to look at the assumptions used or find where I am wrong.

[Loki]

40 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

We are living through moments where what 'was' ceases to be, and what hasn't been comes to pass.

An inflection point? 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

These people are fucking insane. 

Many on Twitter are insane, but important to realise driven that way by 'the medium (is the message)'. Not challenging your post Thoughtcrimial, it's just that farce-book and twat-ter are highly manipulative, negative, and in the main highly divisive methods for conversation... It's taken millions of years for Mankind to evolve from apes throwing their sh** at each other, yet these technologies, aided curiously? by MSM, have regressed us backward into tribes, etc - tragically/ironically just when societies should very much be working more closely together.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, planit said:

The best thing the government could do would be commission 50 nuclear reactors to try to make the future cost of electricity as low as possible, that would power the transition and make electric supply not the constraining factor. 

RR. small/medium nuclear reactor consortium?

[Lightscribe]

Bit of anecdotal breaking news.

Shipping containers price from China

2020 - $3000

Q1 2021 - $14000

Q3 2021 - $20000

Big Kahuna by the end of the year, I’m nailing my colours to the mast (pun intended)

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Lightscribe said:

Bit of anecdotal breaking news.

Shipping containers price from China

2020 - $3000

Q1 2021 - $14000

Q3 2021 - $20000

Big Kahuna by the end of the year, I’m nailing my colours to the mast (pun intended)

The unit costs on shipping anything a decent size will now be enough to break a lot of companies.Return on capital collapses.People think you just add it on the price,but if you have a £70 item you make £25 on before and add on the £20 increases in price its now a £90 item,but still £25 profit.Working capital gets squeezed hard and the risk increases.When i was doing it for years the profit was between 70% and 150% on £70 to £120 retail items.I did a line once at 30% to test the waters and it wast worth it.A few returns,odd damaged item etc all add up.

Like iv always said inflation does the opposite of dis-inflation.It increases costs at all parts of the chain and takes out margins more and more down that chain.Companies that gained the most from extended supply chains to cheap countries got dis-inflation at every point,now they get inflation at every point.Thats crucial.

Iv never seen as many factories wanting people up here.Thats before more and more is pulled back.

The most likely macro outcome is that we have to consume less and China has to consume more.However early in cycles we will try to consume the same amount,and that causes some areas to take from others and government will try to counter it with printing as we are seeing.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Im currently looking a lot at these inflation feedback loops.Roadmap is clear now for the cycle,so cross market work can be the focus.Being a contrarian i love it best when the work shows up an opposite to consensus.Im see massive feedback loops in renewables,wind the most.

Consensus is that the costs will keep slowly falling so that new entries will have cheaper builds ,but the same profits as price falls.Im seeing thats very very wrong.The transition forces up commod costs,and those commod costs force up renewable build outs.I think at best the tech getting cheaper will be met with increasing other costs,so maybe build out costs stay stable.That says most farms wont be profitable without subsidy.That then forces up energy prices again.

The key point is that the main winners will be those who secure and open the best big basins for wind.Smaller,less suitable areas will be loss making.

So for all BPs mistakes,it could be them and Equinor are best placed because they are trying to get the best basins,even if paying more now than others think they are worth.

Its going to be interesting watching this all play out.

 

[Noallegiance]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The unit costs on shipping anything a decent size will now be enough to break a lot of companies.Return on capital collapses.People think you just add it on the price,but if you have a £70 item you make £25 on before and add on the £20 increases in price its now a £90 item,but still £25 profit.Working capital gets squeezed hard and the risk increases.When i was doing it for years the profit was between 70% and 150% on £70 to £120 retail items.I did a line once at 30% to test the waters and it wast worth it.A few returns,odd damaged item etc all add up.

Like iv always said inflation does the opposite of dis-inflation.It increases costs at all parts of the chain and takes out margins more and more down that chain.Companies that gained the most from extended supply chains to cheap countries got dis-inflation at every point,now they get inflation at every point.Thats crucial.

Iv never seen as many factories wanting people up here.Thats before more and more is pulled back.

The most likely macro outcome is that we have to consume less and China has to consume more.However early in cycles we will try to consume the same amount,and that causes some areas to take from others and government will try to counter it with printing as we are seeing.

 

Could this help government reduce welfare as more local jobs become available?

[Don Coglione]

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Could this help government reduce welfare as more local jobs become available?

It should, but benefits are so generous for so many and an entire generation has been raised with no semblance of a work ethic. As I have posted elsewhere, you could offer 50 quid an hour and you would still struggle to fill some roles in certain areas, unless benefits were slashed. This is the squaring of the circle of immigration forcing labour costs down, whilst simultaneously the State offering trampolines for all.

Much pain ahead 

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, arrow said:

The country's top refiner, Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), in its latest annual report said it would boost its annual oil refining capacity to 87.55 million tonnes by 2024/25 from the current 70.05 million tonnes to meet growing demand for petroleum products.

India will be the main driver of rising demand for energy over the next two decades, accounting for 25% of global growth, and is set to overtake the European Union as the world's third-biggest energy consumer by 2030, the International Energy Agency said in a report earlier this year. 

It is also nearly doubling its 3.2 million tonnes a year petrochemical capacity by adding another 3.1 million tonnes by 2024/25."

Interesting article.As thread contributors have said for sometime,the market is looking the wrong way on demand.I suspect that 25% will be an undestimate.

All the Western greta types/fans will get a shock when they're paying $200 a barrel at the pump and they suddenly realsie you can't eat a sense of entitlement.

15 hours ago, arrow said:

In private, Chinese officials cannot be unhappy with the exit of a defeated America. It not only opens greater space for China's expansionism but also shows how U.S. power is in decline.

 

US power isn't in decline yet.They jsut realsied they can't win.

Sangin is a fine example.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39366111

 

 

14 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi SP.

Someone else might have to do the calculations to work out total UK consumption.

An average UK household say 2/3 bedder will pull 39 kilowatts per hour in gas output, larger houses considerably more, that's not even taking commercial premises, hotels, pubs, etc into consideration.

The maximum gas KW you can pull from a domestic house gas meter is 70KW. 70,000 watts divided by 230amps (domestic electric supply) = 304 Amps. Your main fuse on the incoming electric supply to the fuse board is 100 Amps. So, roughly 8 average current gas fired homes to 1 that is fully electric.

We will need to rewire the entire infrastructure of the country, with a nuke power station every over street.

It is not going to happen, heat pumps or not.

I understood the first bit in bold and the second.And I think that's main thing,get a trusted source and trust it.I do enjoy you and @Transistor Man s posts on electricity.Appreciate the laymens reply alongside the more complex stuff.

[Noallegiance]

Invest in unlisted British firms, PM and Chancellor tell pension funds (msn.com)