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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Offered a start today. £270. 7.30pm - 3.00am, NHS job Brum. Said OK as more than likely it would be 7.30pm - 1.00 am. Fitted with me. Return call, " its been put on hold, they can't get the materials. 

Paid £849 stoppage, tax etc, today on £2100. Agency. 🤣. Fuck that. Back to gross. 

There's gonna be a problem. Supply chains are finished atm, so welcome in the unemployment. Hopefully it leads to.. dare I say it... 

We've used the same hardware for the best part of 15 years, supplier yesterday said they were having issues with manufacturer (prob China) and once their current stocks run out they wont get more.  I expected this to happen last year so was bit early as usual, amount of things going into short supply is not slowing down yet.

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3 hours ago, harp said:

Natural Gas prices 😳

why doesn’t this feed through to big oil companies share prices? They must be raking it in at these levels but the market is just shrugging. 
 

So we can make more later.They are buying back shares at 6.5x cashflow here and the longer we can have Brent and gas at these prices and the shares where they are the better.Likely £7 to £9 for BP including divs over the cycle.The market will go to where its going,but in its own time.The longer the disconnect the higher the eventual return.

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10 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I remember when workers were up in arms about this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-58403087

 

Scotland to trial a four-day week

 

"Scotland is to trial a four-day week, but without a loss of pay. A report out today includes some ideas for how it could be done, drawing on experience in Iceland and New Zealand."

  • O.o

    Scotland to trial 20% pay rises.

The thing is people will then moonlight for the fifth day doing something else so that they can afford a higher mortgage, and we know what that did last time to the property market when `stay at home` mums started to work full-time.

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8 hours ago, harp said:

My neighbour had about 10 birch trees  separating our properties. I fucking hate birch trees, dropping those tiny seed pods all summer. Anyway they have all died now and I got speaking to her. I offered to drop the lot and keep the wood. She was chuffed to be getting the job done for free. But baffled why they all died at the same time.  
Amazing what a wood drill bit and roundup altra can do 😉

Should have told her that trees can catch Covid as well, and you were vaccinating them :-)

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21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

So we can make more later.They are buying back shares at 6.5x cashflow here and the longer we can have Brent and gas at these prices and the shares where they are the better.Likely £7 to £9 for BP including divs over the cycle.The market will go to where its going,but in its own time.The longer the disconnect the higher the eventual return.

Hi DB, you are the bollocks. I'm caught between putting down the muller on a gaff  or going in big on bp and shell and others. Shell because of lpg and bp cos I'm sold on it due the dream of trees ( divis) etc. Not advice I'm looking for. I'm in construction and have felt this previously. It's going tits up with bricks, plasterboard, labour etc.

I'm thinking, wait. I speak to all in construction and its the supply chain that's not working. No more  just in time ( for anything). Your input is eye-opening. Thanks.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hi DB, you are the bollocks. I'm caught between putting down the muller on a gaff  or going in big on bp and shell and others. Shell because of lpg and bp cos I'm sold on it due the dream of trees ( divis) etc. Not advice I'm looking for. I'm in construction and have felt this previously. It's going tits up with bricks, plasterboard, labour etc.

I'm thinking, wait. I speak to all in construction and its the supply chain that's not working. No more  just in time ( for anything). Your input is eye-opening. Thanks.

Forg to mention banks, as I hate the vints

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HousePriceMania
49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

So we can make more later.They are buying back shares at 6.5x cashflow here and the longer we can have Brent and gas at these prices and the shares where they are the better.Likely £7 to £9 for BP including divs over the cycle.The market will go to where its going,but in its own time.The longer the disconnect the higher the eventual return.

Out of interest DB....if it's not too much of a personal question....are you a virgin how much do you have invested ?

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Bobthebuilder
15 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Out of interest DB....if it's not too much of a personal question....are you a virgin how much do you have invested ?

 

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reformed nice guy
37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Out of interest DB....if it's not too much of a personal question....are you a virgin how much do you have invested ?

I dont think that is a fair question. It's better if we don't talk about amounts

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1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anarchy and the formation of a republic ?

Anarchy in the UK

its coming some time, maybe ( defo)

your future dream is a shopping scheme ( house )

I wanna be , anarchy, ( you know what I mean)

Shameful that a pop band foresaw the future back in the 70’s  and not a real person of note atm in time. Sorry, off topic.
 

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Likely £7 to £9 for BP including divs over the cycle.

Hi DurhamBorn.  Quick question.  When you say "including divs", do you mean an eventual share price (in say 2030) of £7 - £9 a share AND you earn divs on top, or do you mean £7 - £9 if you include them?  

Either way its a great hold for the redistribution cycle, but I'm interested because it makes comparisons between the different stocks we look at easier.

Thanks again for the pearls of wisdom!

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8 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I dont think that is a fair question. It's better if we don't talk about amounts

Agree, Im not embarrassed to talk about the size of my penis (4 inches by the way), but I would be about my investment sum as its even smaller in the scheme of things :-)

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44 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, Im not embarrassed to talk about the size of my penis (4 inches by the way)

That's not too bad but not quite as wide as mine.

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10 hours ago, Phil said:

 I'm in construction and have felt this previously. It's going tits up with bricks, plasterboard, labour etc.

I'm thinking, wait. I speak to all in construction and its the supply chain that's not working. No more  just in time ( for anything). Your input is eye-opening. Thanks.

Phil, I saw two sites being cleared yesterday and spoke to the builders. They said they were just sticking founds in due to planning and were then going to leave them to next year because they couldnt price the job and were expecting a crash dec/early next year and didnt want to be left hanging with paying for overpriced materials for houses/apartments that werent worth what they thought.
Now they both could have been the same company so one view rather than two anecdotes but is it the same across the water?


I know you cant get trades here to do anything until next april etc as they cant price materials/labour are flat out (kitchen fitters busier than they have ever been, covid isolation ballsing up schedules leaving customers pissed off - start a job, covid, leave job, leave next job etc etc)

I built my own conservatory last October and had a 3 month waiting list for the double glazing (couldnt get double glazed roof, bought polycarbonate, couple of extra sheets, by the time I had finished I sold them both for 50% profit). If Id waited on the double glazing company Id probably only just had it finished last month.
Friend has been quoted next May for a tarmac driveway, no price, thats when they can possibly start and price will be the price...

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HousePriceMania
10 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I dont think that is a fair question. It's better if we don't talk about amounts

 

Definitely a virgin then !!!

If someone is in for £10M, or say 50x their annual income then total respect, if on the other hand it's £1000, or say 1/50th of their annual income, then it puts a different perspective on things.

Rough ball park figures would be useful, a % would be fine.

 

 

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21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Iv been buying up old calor gas bottles on Facebook marketplace,some are half full for a tenner.Iv got two fires in the attic i got out of a skip,bit of tube and  regulator and good to go.Iv got a campingaz stove as well for cooking.Great them.I take a bottle and that when we go out sometimes and cook a few burgers or sausages,saves coughing up in some expensive cafe xD,,.Notice today they are forming long lines to get Kerosene in Sri Lanka.

Funnily enough I picked up a superser back in April for 30 quid and it came with a full gas bottle! Was collecting some old wood from freegle and saw two old rusting gas bottles and asked what she wanted done with them, oh can you dump them. Certainly, dumped in my back yard!
Ive picked up a couple of old gas bbqs from freegle in this last month, both the old cast iron type, not the modern flimsy ones. They have a fair bit of rust but a bit of going over with a wire brush and high temperature paint and they will be as good as new. Burner is knackered in one so will have to get a replacement (us ebay probably) and the wire grills are sold off cheap about this time of year by the diy stores, get a size bigger and cut with bolt cutters/angle grinder. As you say will replace the tubes with new ones.

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22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Someone pointed this out to me last night, dunno how significant it is. 

 

The "Non financial corporation" bar is the one to watch, as you can see its far higher in China than ROW (2018), as companies like Evergrande gorged themselves on debt to build the Housing/Factories that would turn China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world.  Unfortunately now the economic cycle has turned, China is heading out of favor, and they find themselves with a load of debt that isn't reducing in value and a load of assets that are.  IMO real Chinese GDP last year was negative, this year its going to be even worse, if I'm right more Chinese companies should start reporting their in trouble with increasing frequency.

image.png.293e1a065da2bfbac0433bd6c303007b.png

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47 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Someone pointed this out to me last night, dunno how significant it is. 

 

 

 

Hasn't affected the Chinese markets today, it seems.

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HousePriceMania
2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

The "Non financial corporation" bar is the one to watch, as you can see its far higher in China than ROW (2018), as companies like Evergrande gorged themselves on debt to build the Housing/Factories that would turn China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world.  Unfortunately now the economic cycle has turned, China is heading out of favor, and they find themselves with a load of debt that isn't reducing in value and a load of assets that are.  IMO real Chinese GDP last year was negative, this year its going to be even worse, if I'm right more Chinese companies should start reporting their in trouble with increasing frequency.

image.png.293e1a065da2bfbac0433bd6c303007b.png

The numbers are staggering when you read about it.

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11 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Hi DurhamBorn.  Quick question.  When you say "including divs", do you mean an eventual share price (in say 2030) of £7 - £9 a share AND you earn divs on top, or do you mean £7 - £9 if you include them?  

Either way its a great hold for the redistribution cycle, but I'm interested because it makes comparisons between the different stocks we look at easier.

Thanks again for the pearls of wisdom!

Including divis.Divs will be crucial  this cycle.My aim for the cycle was 65% return minimum as thats what i expect inflation to be in the basics whatever the headline figures say.

Something like Imperial i dont expect much share price growth at all,maybe 20% over the cycle unless a bid,but i do think they will increase the div by 2% a year average and pay 9% a year for the cycle.

Younger people reading the thread should always remember that a lot of the people on here have different goals than maximum capital growth.My primary aim is to hold my families wealth that is mostly sat with me and my dad against inflation because what we have delivers the life we want and will do so if we keep up with inflation.

Of course we still get some big capital growth in some areas and i do top slice,and even sell out of things.Iv sold nearly all potash now for instance that trebled and spread it all in telcos and a couple of goldies.

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15 hours ago, Phil said:

Offered a start today. £270. 7.30pm - 3.00am, NHS job Brum. Said OK as more than likely it would be 7.30pm - 1.00 am. Fitted with me. Return call, " its been put on hold, they can't get the materials. 

Paid £849 stoppage, tax etc, today on £2100. Agency. 🤣. Fuck that. Back to gross. 

There's gonna be a problem. Supply chains are finished atm, so welcome in the unemployment. Hopefully it leads to.. dare I say it... 

Return of Godzilla?

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