Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

That's what I was thinking in terms of the government taking assets, might they do it at the end of the next cycle, not in the next few years. 

Exactly. "You will own nothing and you will be happy" was not a slip of the tongue by some no-mark.

[Hancock]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They will look for areas they have lifted that dont pay tax though,so extra on houses is likely in some form,probably on BTL,and getting more tax out of pensioners,NI if they dare.

That is a growing voter base, and we saw what happened to T May in the election when she spoke about taxing this generation.

Most he'll do is change triple lock to double lock.

Does anyone even know if the scheduled budget is going ahead this year?

[Craig]

32 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Exactly. "You will own nothing and you will be happy" was not a slip of the tongue by some no-mark.

Will take one hell of an adjustment in most people's perceptions, as the majority of people are only happy when they own something... 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Craig said:

Will take one hell of an adjustment in most people's perceptions, as the majority of people are only happy when they own something... 

You don't understand. You will be happy. 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, Craig said:

Will take one hell of an adjustment in most people's perceptions, as the majority of people are only happy when they own something... 

Exactly people have been forced to rent for 20 years due to this globalist HPI and working plebs are fucken furious about it, its as if those who quote that line have forgot that.

Brand new car ownership has seems to have gone down the be happy to not own, but i don't suppose it makes them any more or less happy than someone who owns a 10 year old car .... apart from the day they collect it.

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, Craig said:

Will take one hell of an adjustment in most people's perceptions, as the majority of people are only happy when they own something... 

That is why we are being primed now.

In fact, generations are already growing up owning very little - cars, phones, even software all rented, fancy clothes now too. Note how many built-to-rent developments are going up everywhere; ditto banks and institutions moving heavily into residential rental property. When the pendulum swings just far enough towards renting being the norm, that is when property equity will be targetted, in my opinion.

It is not by accident that those generations have been educated to become woke and green, it is a means of ushering in socialism.

Go long anti-depressants.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

Agree on that nothing will be safe. I thought the big companies had billions in pension funds wouldn't the government take hold of those. Somebody like HL have billions in AUM. 

I assume they’d go for local authority pensions first. They’re funded pensions I.e. they actually invest the contributions. Take them over, sell the assets held and then shift to an unfunded model. Suddenly the government debt levels look much better.

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I assume they’d go for local authority pensions first. They’re funded pensions I.e. they actually invest the contributions. Take them over, sell the assets held and then shift to an unfunded model. Suddenly the government debt levels look much better.

I have a few thousand sat in a local government pension after paying in when I was younger and thought about moving it to my own sipp but felt it wasn't worth it as the local government ones get topped up by others continually.. until they don't I guess

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

I have a few thousand sat in a local government pension after paying in when I was younger and thought about moving it to my own sipp but felt it wasn't worth it as the local government ones get topped up by others continually.. until they don't I guess

They’d just pay it out of general taxation after helping themselves to the pension pot. The risk is more if you had a very big pension. I could see the government declaring a badly run council insolvent, and as terms of the bail out helping themselves to the pension pot whilst capping pay outs. 

Anyhow you should be delighted each year your new council tax bill lands and it’s increased by the max amount possible - it’s helping fund your pension

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

That is why we are being primed now.

In fact, generations are already growing up owning very little - cars, phones, even software all rented, fancy clothes now too. Note how many built-to-rent developments are going up everywhere; ditto banks and institutions moving heavily into residential rental property. When the pendulum swings just far enough towards renting being the norm, that is when property equity will be targetted, in my opinion.

It is not by accident that those generations have been educated to become woke and green, it is a means of ushering in socialism.

Go long anti-depressants.

My guess is that they’ll tax assets to oblivion in the name of climate change. Council tax will go out the window and be replaced with property levies and carbon tax to make it uneconomical to own. Big empty houses are expensive to heat with only old codgers in. Government buys them out for a decent wedge to force downsizing.

I say go long on insect protein.

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

That is why we are being primed now.

In fact, generations are already growing up owning very little - cars, phones, even software all rented, fancy clothes now too. Note how many built-to-rent developments are going up everywhere; ditto banks and institutions moving heavily into residential rental property. When the pendulum swings just far enough towards renting being the norm, that is when property equity will be targetted, in my opinion.

It is not by accident that those generations have been educated to become woke and green, it is a means of ushering in socialism.

Go long anti-depressants.

You've nailed it!  They'll start with optional green bonds,  CBDCs, etc which will be so good they'll just make them mandatory in the end as a bit of minor administrative tyding up.  Boiling frog stuff, like you point out.  Look at the vaccine success, passports, behavioural manipulation, etc.  It's all been tested and it works.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Note how many built-to-rent developments are going up everywhere;

From the 40s to the 70s the state built more houses than ever before to rent, to the point half the country lived in a council houses.

I don't suppose the corporations will be offering low rents and life tenancies.

Besides if the young are predominantly socialists as you insinuate, at some point their socialist leader will take the houses off the corporations and redistribute this wealth. 

I can't help but think the last 20 years have been the most socialist for the rich in the history of these Isles, and the govt. is going to run out of money to gift to the corporations in the near future.

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Indeed.  Looks like I need to clarify for those who may have accidentally wandered into this forum as I thought this was well know.  The players here are heavily into this, as professionals.  Most of us work in the City in various jobs while at least one is based in Asia, although we do move around a lot.  Several like me run large family offices, some on our own behalf and some for clients.  Others are wealth managers and other sundry advisors.  Oh, and a few academics.  Indeed, I'm waving at DB right now as he sits by the window in the building opposite.  We amuse ourselves here with our various personas.  The only rule is there has to be a grain of truth, although I have told DB in the past I thought he was pushing it a bit at times.  Yes, we deal in £m's.  So the correct question is how much do you have under management (AUM).  I'm sorry if this was not understood.

 

Don't forget me!...I shine the shoes, although its a long time since I was called a boy!

[Harley]

.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

They’d just pay it out of general taxation after helping themselves to the pension pot. The risk is more if you had a very big pension. I could see the government declaring a badly run council insolvent, and as terms of the bail out helping themselves to the pension pot whilst capping pay outs. 

Exactly, the government run PPF covers upto £36k a year AND you only get 100% of this if you have started claiming your pension, othewise its 90% of this sum.

In addition, reading the other day I found out if the government took over your pension and it originally had inflation rises I.e with RPI, this would no longer be the case, and they could decide the % rate per annum increase.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Loki said:

What about end of next cycle? (Give me your first thought no matter how crazy it might seem!)

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

"a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day"  Durhamborn unplugged!  Thanks mate, I have similar thoughts myself on the 'non-numerical' side of things.  (My brain works in thoughts/concepts not numbers.)

Always good to have what seem sometimes like TFH thoughts backed-up by someone who does do numbers. 

[Don Coglione]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

It would appear that Australia is currently having a dress-rehearsal for just such a scenario.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

It would appear that Australia is currently having a dress-rehearsal for just such a scenario.

Unbelievable what I'm seeing over there

[planit]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

Thank fuck for that, I thought you were going to be pessimistic.

[leonardratso]

watch out for these no-brainer exercises, ive had a few of those in the past, they burnt me a new ring by the end of it.

[macca]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

I came on here to cheer myself up.. 

Now i'm on the net applying for a shotgun licence..

Is anyone hoarding food bunker style? 

What happens to my mortgage in this sort of collapse?

Should I go mad and buy a new car on finance since £40,000 will be 2 loafs of bread? Maybe they will take slices of malt loaf for repayment..

[Froggy2000]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

I feel similarly terrified about the future 10+ years from now.  If the scenario you describe comes close to being accurate there will be a race war and not just in the UK but throughout Europe.

Most of the 1000+ murders a day will be in London, Birmingham etc.  One more reason to move to the North East.

I'm not insightful and knowledgeable enough to contribute much to the financial discussion on this thread, but if I had to give any advice it would be to make the most of the next 5 years.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

I'm not insightful and knowledgeable enough to contribute much to the financial discussion on this thread, but if I had to give any advice it would be to make the most of the next 5 years.

That's my sentiment too

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, macca said:

Now i'm on the net applying for a shotgun licence..

Get yourself down to Threadneedle Street for some target practice, don't forget to wear your mask!