Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[HousePriceMania]

Following on from the Chinese bank thing yesterday....Chinese sub-prime bailout anyone ?

 

I

[Option5]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

Will these 1000 people die from murder or will they be classified as Covid deaths?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

If there's a silver lining in this scenario, it's that high inflation will eventually evaporate the bennies. I'll take 10% per annum for a few years it that means the scroungers need to find a fucking job.

Exactly and of course right cross the economy thats why they want inflation.My partner works for the council,they have been offered 1.7% way below inflation.Thats good of course for everyone else.The irony is though her service where they respond to old people when they fall,are ill etc cant get responders.Most of the women are fantastic at the job,but are mainly over 55,my partner is 51.The few younger they have had leave.A great pension doesnt seem to interest them when its so far away.

Benefits are of course inflation upgraded,but the figure they use is way lower than what the basics are going up.

Rumours of an NI increase though will mainly hit workers.Suits me of course,but terrible for my kids.It would be fair enough if it was to cover all  care costs,but leaving the first £70k to pay for means most will still lose all assets first.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

This is the bit I don’t get, surely the millennials are capable of scrolling through Facebook marketplace for low mileage cars sub £1500.

My kids are.My daughter is a nurse and in her unit every other person has a lease car,they get a fuel allowance and the others see it as paying for half the lease cost,even though it isnt,it pays for the fuel they use seeing patients.My daughter got a £3k  Diesel Pug 207 five years ago and still has it.Iv kept it on the road for £560 in that five years,mainly repairs around springs etc where she whacks curbs ,one of the best cars ever made for me for none motorway driving.

She pays the savings off their mortgage and will be mortgage free by 33 .Her work mates are up to their eyes in mortgage debt,credit card debt,loans.Considering they are on really good money their finances are a complete mess.

[eek]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My kids are.My daughter is a nurse and in her unit every other person has a lease car,they get a fuel allowance and the others see it as paying for half the lease cost,even though it isnt,it pays for the fuel they use seeing patients.My daughter got a £3k  Diesel Pug 207 five years ago and still has it.Iv kept it on the road for £560 in that five years,mainly repairs around springs etc where she whacks curbs ,one of the best cars ever made for me for none motorway driving.

She pays the savings off their mortgage and will be mortgage free by 33 .Her work mates are up to their eyes in mortgage debt,credit card debt,loans.Considering they are on really good money their finances are a complete mess.

Sorting out Twin B at the moment who is about to start a degree apprenticeship at the VOA.

Her plan is a couple of years saving to get a deposit then buy something, throw in a couple of lodgers and pay off asap with all the lodgers money going on overpayments. 

I suspect she won't be mortgage free early on because she'll move somewhere posher but she's going to way better off than her sister is. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I finally got to see my old man after almost two years during the summer, he has a bit of land in a very remote spot. I've been discussing a plot of land with him to build a bolt hole, but as soon as you're into planning permission you're into the vortex of government, bureaucracy ... and tax. So I was thinking about a log cabin, let's see them find that. Then I thought there is always some do gooding busybody to shop you. So why not a caravan? That'd work. And then I thought...glamping tent! They're only about 1k and if 7m diameter about the size of a city apartment. Let's see the the bastards try and tax that!

Of course my old man would think I've become a hippie and growing weed, and would shoot me, so I'll have to wait a bit.

Club together,form a Ltd and open a camping site.Fantastic business in the right place.Lots of cash in hand.Low overheads etc.We have builders on here who could build the shower block etc.We could then have our own caravans plonked on there all year etc,or huge tents.Even a small one can take £200k a year.

[JMD]

23 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Will these 1000 people die from murder or will they be classified as Covid deaths?

Rather depressingly, i think Covid will be for ever with us... to be increasingly found lurking behind all kinds of future nefarious government policy-transmutations, etc. But in particular those deaths you mention could 'become' just another Whitty (though def. not fun) medical variant - perhaps a particularly aggressive strain... maybe lets call it 'Spectral-form-Covid'?!     

[Majorpain]

46 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Fesshole is hilarious follow on Twatter, people basically confess something they did anonymously. A fair bit of bullshitting going on, but quite often true aswell I think. This one is do different to the usual sad wanker stuff it has the ring of truth:

Now that's inflation, in it's very purest form . Good fertiliser, but won't help my potash stocks. Bastard.

Don't worry, Central banks are laser focused on the Inflation that isn't being caused by their money printing.  Here is a photo of one to prove it:

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I finally got to see my old man after almost two years during the summer, he has a bit of land in a very remote spot. I've been discussing a plot of land with him to build a bolt hole, but as soon as you're into planning permission you're into the vortex of government, bureaucracy ... and tax. So I was thinking about a log cabin, let's see them find that. Then I thought there is always some do gooding busybody to shop you. So why not a caravan? That'd work. And then I thought...glamping tent! They're only about 1k and if 7m diameter about the size of a city apartment. Let's see the the bastards try and tax that!

Of course my old man would think I've become a hippie and growing weed, and would shoot me, so I'll have to wait a bit.

Slightly tangential link perhaps, plus this is here in UK (i assume your land is in Ireland?), but shows i think government here stepping up police/control measures. This story was reported in the news recently and suggestions of caravans on your land reminded me.

But is i think there is also a lot more to this story... perhaps government expects greater demand in future from all types of people and families desiring - needing? - to 'escape to the open road'! So in terms of this threads macro, interesting i think.   

 Government announces plans to introduce harsh laws for roadside camps | Friends, Families and Travellers (gypsy-traveller.org)

 

 

[Don Coglione]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

Rather depressingly, i think Covid will be for ever with us... to be increasingly found lurking behind all kinds of future nefarious government policy-transmutations, etc. But in particular those deaths you mention could 'become' just another Whitty (though def. not fun) medical variant - perhaps a particularly aggressive strain... maybe lets call it 'Spectral-form-Covid'?!     

The Jamaican variant would scare the shit out of me!

[JMD]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My kids are.My daughter is a nurse and in her unit every other person has a lease car,they get a fuel allowance and the others see it as paying for half the lease cost,even though it isnt,it pays for the fuel they use seeing patients.My daughter got a £3k  Diesel Pug 207 five years ago and still has it.Iv kept it on the road for £560 in that five years,mainly repairs around springs etc where she whacks curbs ,one of the best cars ever made for me for none motorway driving.

She pays the savings off their mortgage and will be mortgage free by 33 .Her work mates are up to their eyes in mortgage debt,credit card debt,loans.Considering they are on really good money their finances are a complete mess.

I'm waiting for a car mechanics program to be aired on TV. I know there's lots of practical car info. on that t'internet - but if TV can broadcast endless cooking/furniture restore/makeover type programs - why not auto-themed ones?  ...i know, i guess not 'middle class' enough for the TV execs?

Anyway, my tv/culture 'shoe-shine moment' will be when we get such a program commissioned, oh and also when those Top Gear infantalised oafs are removed for good from my (tele)vision!

 

 

 

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, eek said:

Sorting out Twin B at the moment who is about to start a degree apprenticeship at the VOA.

Her plan is a couple of years saving to get a deposit then buy something, throw in a couple of lodgers and pay off asap with all the lodgers money going on overpayments. 

I suspect she won't be mortgage free early on because she'll move somewhere posher but she's going to way better off than her sister is. 

Sounds a good idea if done correctly, i.e. right area/property type/suitable leverage, etc. But iv'e heard it works best when property owner is also a student resident at the house, not sure if that's what your describing?

...But for clarification and full disclosure, is her sister (also mentioned in your above piece) 'Twin A'?     (btw, love the familial nomenclature, really heart-warming!!!)

[eek]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sounds a good idea if done correctly, i.e. right area/property type/suitable leverage, etc. But iv'e heard it works best when property owner is also a student resident at the house, not sure if that's what your describing?

...But for clarification and full disclosure, is her sister (also mentioned in your above piece) 'Twin A'?     (btw, love the familial nomenclature, really heart-warming!!!)

Yep - twin a wishes to be a teacher so starts with x years of uni debt and 10% repayments for decades.

I did try and warn her but hey - some people won't listen 

As for the rest twin b is just looking at lodgers - it won't make any really difference to her as I don't think she qualifies as a student for council tax purposes because it's a degree apprenticeship isn't a fulltime degree.

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Club together,form a Ltd and open a camping site.Fantastic business in the right place.Lots of cash in hand.Low overheads etc.We have builders on here who could build the shower block etc.We could then have our own caravans plonked on there all year etc,or huge tents.Even a small one can take £200k a year.

Great idea DB, probably deserves its own sub-thread! Or at least the whole premise/or an alternatively themed one, should be resurected come mid-decade - when it might become very useful for some people to think very seriously about doing?  

[janch]

The chickens are coming home to roost!  A good article from Shaun today:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

The situation has been one of gross miss management. The UK for example has dithered over plans for its energy structure for more than a decade, so under government’s of all the main political hues. We have closed sources of power mainly coal but not properly replaced them as we again note a difference between theory and practice in the world of renewables. After all you can turn a coal power plant on quickly which presently we cannot do with the wind farms and until the wind blows simply cannot do.

 

Russia has seen a chance and must be laughing at Europe as well as rubbing its hands together.

Russia, the largest gas exporter to Europe, has been criticised for sending lower supplies this year, ahead of the start-up of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

I think it may be time to repurchase CNA (and we don't need to call it the Scottish Play any more)!  I sold what I had for quite a loss percentage-wise earlier in the year but didn't have much in the first place so not too bad.  As it turned out we all bought too early and it's on the rise now but still low compared to the long-term price.

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, janch said:

The chickens are coming home to roost!  A good article from Shaun today:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

The situation has been one of gross miss management. The UK for example has dithered over plans for its energy structure for more than a decade, so under government’s of all the main political hues. We have closed sources of power mainly coal but not properly replaced them as we again note a difference between theory and practice in the world of renewables. After all you can turn a coal power plant on quickly which presently we cannot do with the wind farms and until the wind blows simply cannot do.

 

Russia has seen a chance and must be laughing at Europe as well as rubbing its hands together.

Russia, the largest gas exporter to Europe, has been criticised for sending lower supplies this year, ahead of the start-up of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

I think it may be time to repurchase CNA (and we don't need to call it the Scottish Play any more)!  I sold what I had for quite a loss percentage-wise earlier in the year but didn't have much in the first place so not too bad.  As it turned out we all bought too early and it's on the rise now but still low compared to the long-term price.

Iv been buying it,lots of things are turning in its favour.One problem is it cant pay its debts off though because they are at high coupons and dont come up for ages.However aside that and some dodgy gas contracts the rest looks like it might of turned.I have a big red on it for now,but not to bad in percentage terms and within range if it runs.It will be interesting to see how big the divi is going forward.I think they might start with 2.2p a year.Likely announce it at the capitals day on the 16th November.

[Barnsey]

 

[No One]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

given the way the fed etc are acting....somethings serious collapsed.

Can you expand?

[Castlevania]

29 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

PMs and the miners seem to like it

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

This is the bit I don’t get, surely the millennials are capable of scrolling through Facebook marketplace for low mileage cars sub £1500.

Most do, the most noticeable shiny new cars on lease are these fuck off big 4x4s driven by those aged 40+.

 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, janch said:

The chickens are coming home to roost!  A good article from Shaun today:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

The situation has been one of gross miss management. The UK for example has dithered over plans for its energy structure for more than a decade, so under government’s of all the main political hues. We have closed sources of power mainly coal but not properly replaced them as we again note a difference between theory and practice in the world of renewables. After all you can turn a coal power plant on quickly which presently we cannot do with the wind farms and until the wind blows simply cannot do.

 

Russia has seen a chance and must be laughing at Europe as well as rubbing its hands together.

Russia, the largest gas exporter to Europe, has been criticised for sending lower supplies this year, ahead of the start-up of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

I think it may be time to repurchase CNA (and we don't need to call it the Scottish Play any more)!  I sold what I had for quite a loss percentage-wise earlier in the year but didn't have much in the first place so not too bad.  As it turned out we all bought too early and it's on the rise now but still low compared to the long-term price.

I bought a grands worth yesterday, but you only have to look at the dithering with N. Irish govt over allowing Infrastrata to build underground storage facilities, the sticking point seems to be them putting salt into the fucken sea.

Its a few dole scrounging mental locals with pink hair and such like who are against it, and the thick Mick terrorists who run the country seem to be siding with them.

[Democorruptcy]

On 01/09/2021 at 14:07, HousePriceMania said:

Hi Boon,

I run the UKPropertyLion index and here's what I've seen  to July 2021. 

 

Note: I didn't do August for 2 reasons:

1) I was away

2) I couldn't be arsed

Anyway, here are the charts of total available listings on RM

 

TOTAL LISTINGS

Not the sharp decline from Jan 2020.  This is echoed in all regions data except London

 

Here's London where number of listings is still above Jan 2020, though it vaguely follows the same pattern as the other regions.

LONDON LISTINGS

For example, this is East of England

EAST OF ENGLAND LISTINGS

 

and this is Wales

WALES LISTINGS

and the North west for reference

NORTH WEST LISTINGS

The number of available listings in approx 50% in most regions from Jan 2020 whereas London is up 5%. 

Now, that should tell us all something, if someone know's what that is, let me know 

If you have some figures that demonstrate your assertion that "no way have available listings risen" I'd like to see them,  until then I'll have to go with the only honest house price index in the world.

 

The S.E. is probably the 2nd least badly affected are and it's down about 40% but certainly down 50% from the peak number of listings I've seen.

SOUTH EAST LISTINGS

I kinda wish I had done August now just to see what was going on but Sept data will be available in a few days. it could be we're both right and London has plummeted, we shall see.

While I am at it, the prices were falling nicely but went up a bit again, looking at the listings I see now I think it'll be down again.

 

Interestingly that chart is the inverse of the number of listings....

 

 

so when we see a large rise in supply we should see a sharp drop in prices.

The establishment are doing a great job at keeping prices at peak unaffordable levels in London though, I suspect this is their plan across the country.

MAX DEBT

Doesn't all your plunging supply charts mean that prices are rising? There's nothing good about it?

[Democorruptcy]

On 02/09/2021 at 10:17, DurhamBorn said:

My primary aim is to hold my families wealth that is mostly sat with me and my dad against inflation because what we have delivers the life we want and will do so if we keep up with inflation.

Of course we still get some big capital growth in some areas and i do top slice,and even sell out of things.Iv sold nearly all potash now for instance that trebled and spread it all in telcos and a couple of goldies.

What have you got your dad in now? I remember you posting a while back a portfolio you had chosen for him.

[Democorruptcy]

Amerman on The Fed

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/I3Gyrations.html

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

What have you got your dad in now? I remember you posting a while back a portfolio you had chosen for him.

Very similar,only real adds are Rolls just below a quid and he bought a lot of BP when they were below £2.50.He has also being buying some Henderson Asian income as well.He mainly take the divis now though and gives them to the kids.He was wanting me to go halves with him on two or three houses up here,but i dont want the trouble of looking after them etc and he needs to be more liquid at his age anyway.