Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 he bought a lot of BP when they were below £2.50

Lets hope we see those prices again (so i can go balls deep), seems that job losses are going to be what causes a drop in oilies, and the UK's job numbers are going to be horrific once furlough ends in 26 days.

I was looking at RR but its trebled in just a few months, so opted out.

[Mapper]

Winston's latest video. Not macro obviously, but what goes on in China affects us all these days.

He reviews a document published by state media that condemns all things western and calls for much stricter socialism. Winston opines that it could be the start of another cultural revolution.

My apologies for bringing anybody down at the start of the weekend.

 

[nirvana]

11 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Amerman on The Fed

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/I3Gyrations.html

me on The Fed 

[jamtomorrow]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying it,lots of things are turning in its favour.One problem is it cant pay its debts off though because they are at high coupons and dont come up for ages.However aside that and some dodgy gas contracts the rest looks like it might of turned.I have a big red on it for now,but not to bad in percentage terms and within range if it runs.It will be interesting to see how big the divi is going forward.I think they might start with 2.2p a year.Likely announce it at the capitals day on the 16th November.

I only just spotted their nuclear "rethink", very tempted to divert some of the BK war chest and take a nibble

https://utilityweek.co.uk/centrica-reconsidering-sale-of-nuclear-stake/

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

I only just spotted their nuclear "rethink", very tempted to divert some of the BK war chest and take a nibble

https://utilityweek.co.uk/centrica-reconsidering-sale-of-nuclear-stake/

There's a lot of cracks mentioned, I hope it's being caused by the wind.

[Heart's Ease]

Russia Has a Gas Problem Nearly the Size of Exports to Europe
By Elena Mazneva
3 September 2021, 11:33 BST
Gazprom has just 2 months to build record inventory in Russia
That means storing supply equal to 80% of Western Europe flows

Gazprom PJSC needs to store nearly as much natural gas at home to keep Russians warm this winter as it currently ships to its top customer Western Europe every day, Bloomberg calculations show.

The Russian gas giant has just two months to build its depleted inventories to the record levels it’s targeting, a goal the Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov expects Gazprom to meet. That will require pumping into underground storages sites in Russia supplies equal to about 80% of daily exports to Western Europe.

The calculations, based on Gazprom’s data, send a worrying signal to Europe. The continent is running out of time to boost its own buffer stockpiles ahead of the heating season, with countries from the U.K. to Spain and Germany already contending with energy inflation due to soaring gas and electricity prices. 

“To reach that goal, Gazprom has to prioritize discretionary supply away from Europe,” said Tomas Marzec-Manser, lead European gas analyst at ICIS.“While challenging, I’m sure it will be met.”

European gas prices are breaking records day after day even though it’s summer, when demand is usually low. The region’s inventories are at their lowest in more than a decade for this time of year after a bitter winter left storage sites depleted. Boosting reserves hasn’t been easy, with Russia limiting pipeline supply and cargoes of liquefied fuel being diverted to Asia.

Etc. Exports to Turkey and China also up by 19% this year 

Tried to snip the most useful bits.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-03/russia-has-a-gas-problem-nearly-the-size-of-exports-to-europe

 

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

Lets hope we see those prices again (so i can go balls deep), seems that job losses are going to be what causes a drop in oilies, and the UK's job numbers are going to be horrific once furlough ends in 26 days.

I was looking at RR but its trebled in just a few months, so opted out.

There will be more unfilled jobs in the UK than ever before,the end of furlough will just be a blip.The CBs fear unemployment now more than anything and the fiscal pump has been aimed at that.The problem is the most skilled and experienced are retiring/semi retiring,and welfare is so generous for working people with children most dont want to increase hours,or work at all.

Of course this means more and more work for the state,and less for private industry.Wages have 25% to run up yet for the lowest paid.Its later as they struggle to pass on costs that unemployment will head higher.This cycle wont be about unemployment in the UK,or the west really in general.

[Harley]

.

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Mapper said:

Winston's latest video. Not macro obviously, but what goes on in China affects us all these days.

He reviews a document published by state media that condemns all things western and calls for much stricter socialism. Winston opines that it could be the start of another cultural revolution.

I agree with why you posted it, thanks for posting.  I find select anecdotes/links from the discerning posters here just as useful as the numbers.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

I only just spotted their nuclear "rethink", very tempted to divert some of the BK war chest and take a nibble

https://utilityweek.co.uk/centrica-reconsidering-sale-of-nuclear-stake/

I think government has been involved with Centrica lately and over this.The Chinese were the likely buyers and i think government have had a word.I also think they know they need to take the foot off their neck in certain areas.Expect movement on hydrogen for their Rough reservoir etc and other help.

On nuclear the fleet is all being run down over 10 years,so its interesting because maybe they are involved in looking at these smaller reactors from RR etc.They are net debt free now and still have Spirit to sell.That could be worth £1.3 to £1.8billion.Id expect a big special divi,or for them to develop Rough for Hydrogen and maybe small nuclear,if viable.

Should add Spirit Energy's output is 2/3s gas.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188705&span=3

[Talking Monkey]

39 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Another time bomb lurking. I was looking into cost of student loans, thinking down the line if my lad wants to do that. Its RPI linked:

If half the people in this country have been encouraged to go to Uni, that is a huge % of workers who are going to be absolutely clobbered with interest over the coming decade. 13%+ interest on 100k?!

It will make people very angry I guess but I think the main consequence will be incentivising people to work less and stay under the threshold, if they can. Of course you can't buy a house or raise a family on those numbers in most parts of the country. So productivity down, tax take down, demographics down, anger and resentment up, benefit claimants massively.

I can easily see how the next cycle could be a violent, dystopic mess, absent a debt jubilee or currency change. Or maybe UBI.

I think the students pay 9% repayment over a certain threshold. So later in the decade you could have some high flyer on 70 or 80k seeing a good 5k per year going out of their pay packet towards the student loan but still have the overall amount owed shooting upwards. There's going to be a lot of angry young people. At that point I can't see many of the kids being up for going to university when they hear what successful people 10 years older than them are saying

[Harley]

And who owns some of these student loans and will there be deals on more?  Les Rentiers.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

I think the students pay 9% repayment over a certain threshold. So later in the decade you could have some high flyer on 70 or 80k seeing a good 5k per year going out of their pay packet towards the student loan but still have the overall amount owed shooting upwards. There's going to be a lot of angry young people. At that point I can't see many of the kids being up for going to university when they hear what successful people 10 years older than them are saying

Move abroad and fail to notify the student loan company. You can return to the U.K. 30 years later.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

And as @DurhamBornhas been reporting from the Northern front;

The care sector is on the brink of collapse i think at the same time as we have thousands in every town on benefits.My partners service with the council has more bosses now than responders,they cant get any.My partners friend went on the sick last week,fed up of flogging on and all the crap.She will claim 6 months full pay then retire,she isnt going back,not that they know that yet and she isnt alone,they have 18% sick at the moment.The bosses are all sat at home doing pretty much nothing and the lasses have had enough.It suits my partner because its 2 x 12 hour shifts so we get lots of time to do things with me not working,and a good pension,but she only brings home £1700 and thats working 12 hour nightshifts half the time and weekends etc.They have just been offered 1.7% pay increase,less than inflation.This country has imported millions of scroungers to add to the 10million+ of its own and now its all coming back to bite.

Systemic collapse or high inflation.Thats governments choice,and if the BOE turns off the QE it will be very nasty.

Incredible to see Boris's answer is to push up NI,probably the worst thing he could do,lowering wages in the teeth of an inflation cycle  ,the country could do with him sacking Sunak so that the Tories can launch a stalking horse to take Boris down.

[Hancock]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The care sector is on the brink of collapse

Sorry DB, but you're wrong, its all under control. The Tories are going to get librarians to become careworkers to resolve any staff shortages.

Its simple when you know how.
ttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/03/librarians-could-asked-work-care-homes-amid-fears-staffing-meltdown/

[Hancock]

41 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Move abroad and fail to notify the student loan company. You can return to the U.K. 30 years later.

That was the solution, but in this new globalised world i have to wonder if govts will be collecting money for each other (and corporations who bought the loan books.)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The care sector is on the brink of collapse i think at the same time as we have thousands in every town on benefits.My partners service with the council has more bosses now than responders,they cant get any.My partners friend went on the sick last week,fed up of flogging on and all the crap.She will claim 6 months full pay then retire,she isnt going back,not that they know that yet and she isnt alone,they have 18% sick at the moment.The bosses are all sat at home doing pretty much nothing and the lasses have had enough.It suits my partner because its 2 x 12 hour shifts so we get lots of time to do things with me not working,and a good pension,but she only brings home £1700 and thats working 12 hour nightshifts half the time and weekends etc.They have just been offered 1.7% pay increase,less than inflation.This country has imported millions of scroungers to add to the 10million+ of its own and now its all coming back to bite.

Systemic collapse or high inflation.Thats governments choice,and if the BOE turns off the QE it will be very nasty.

Incredible to see Boris's answer is to push up NI,probably the worst thing he could do,lowering wages in the teeth of an inflation cycle  ,the country could do with him sacking Sunak so that the Tories can launch a stalking horse to take Boris down.

Go for it!  A total s-show.  Boris and the cabal created this mess, or rather brought the long simmering mess to the boil when their other (plandemic) objectives clashed with service provision, and now with the NI, clashed yet again with the economy.  Add their decision to go round the scientific (aka MHRA) refusal to sign off on the kiddie jab by using their pocket scientist and you have to ask what is making them so manic.  I can't think of anything that the individuals could have done to make them this compliant if it were blackmail which can only mean these are some really fecked up and evil feckers. They are laying waste to everything, up to and including people's very existence, for whatever is driving them.  On a personal level, it's one thing to predict this shite but another to actually live through it.  All that time, money and effort and the good it could have been put to.  Pure evil.  

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Sorry DB, but you're wrong, its all under control. The Tories are going to get librarians to become careworkers to resolve any staff shortages.

Its simple when you know how.
ttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/03/librarians-could-asked-work-care-homes-amid-fears-staffing-meltdown/

Don't they need them for the jabbing and truck driving?

[Harley]

I'm feeling quite triggered by @DurhamBorn last post for some reason when I link it with the other factors I mentioned.  I've been working in the copse today and just come in to this with a clear head.  I'm doing my weekly review tomorrow and think I'll keep my arborist helmet and visor on when doing it!  Me waters are telling me something is afoot (as expected) and I still have some outstanding actions to undertake.  Time to batten down the remaining hatches and tighten the ones already done.

[Harley]

On 03/09/2021 at 11:48, DurhamBorn said:

Club together,form a Ltd and open a camping site.Fantastic business in the right place.Lots of cash in hand.Low overheads etc.We have builders on here who could build the shower block etc.We could then have our own caravans plonked on there all year etc,or huge tents.Even a small one can take £200k a year.

I'm was thinking of turning my place into a boutique campsite, including a secluded pod.  I've certainly done enough out doors to warrant it and have the ability to include a small clubhouse. 

My other idea is we each buy a small wood near us and share them for camping in.  Nice and low key.

[Talking Monkey]

32 minutes ago, Harley said:

Go for it!  A total s-show.  Boris and the cabal created this mess, or rather brought the long simmering mess to the boil when their other (plandemic) objectives clashed with service provision, and now with the NI, clashed yet again with the economy.  Add their decision to go round the scientific (aka MHRA) refusal to sign off on the kiddie jab by using their pocket scientist and you have to ask what is making them so manic.  I can't think of anything that the individuals could have done to make them this compliant if it were blackmail which can only mean these are some really fecked up and evil feckers. They are laying waste to everything, up to and including people's very existence, for whatever is driving them.  On a personal level, it's one thing to predict this shite but another to actually live through it.  All that time, money and effort and the good it could have been put to.  Pure evil.  

Elequently put Harley, all that waste when so much good could have been done. 

I've thought long and hard on why so many who could speak out are so compliant, all of them can't be compromised. 

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Elequently put Harley, all that waste when so much good could have been done. 

I've thought long and hard on why so many who could speak out are so compliant, all of them can't be compromised. 

I've decided we've had a coup by the technocracy.  They were triggered (loss of control) by the growth of popularism and the Brexit vote here in the UK.  They've also run out of road in that they've fecked up over the most recent decades, it's all coming home to roost, and they have nowhere left to hide.  They've cashed in and taken the silver shilling ("regulatory capture", etc).  The technocracy covers it all, central banks, politicians, medics, media, etc.

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm feeling quite triggered by @DurhamBorn last post for some reason when I link it with the other factors I mentioned.  I've been working in the copse today and just come in to this with a clear head.  I'm doing my weekly review tomorrow and think I'll keep my arborist helmet and visor on when doing it!  Me waters are telling me something is afoot (as expected) and I still have some outstanding actions to undertake.  Time to batten down the remaining hatches and tighten the ones already done.

I visited a rural area that I grew up in last weekend. It was lovely of course but, looking at the houses for sale I noticed reductions / unexpectably re available, auction, etc, on so many.

I feel we are at a turning point here, seems the last 18 months had sped a natural cycle up by quite some margin.

Feels like a top to me.

[dnb24]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

There will be more unfilled jobs in the UK than ever before,the end of furlough will just be a blip.The CBs fear unemployment now more than anything and the fiscal pump has been aimed at that.The problem is the most skilled and experienced are retiring/semi retiring,and welfare is so generous for working people with children most dont want to increase hours,or work at all.

Of course this means more and more work for the state,and less for private industry.Wages have 25% to run up yet for the lowest paid.Its later as they struggle to pass on costs that unemployment will head higher.This cycle wont be about unemployment in the UK,or the west really in general.

Sorry DB I am obtuse when it comes to the macro environment- some things here don’t make sense to me. 
If there are going to be more unfilled jobs than ever before- where are they coming from- at the moment Amazon seem to be pinching carers but we know the consumer is fecked in an inflationary cycle so that ain’t gonna last long. 
Are they going to come from the state then? If so where? The state’s huge as it is- I work in it and the waste is unreal- are they really going to increase in these areas. Or do you mean the state will shrink and private industry will pick up?
Then with the skilled retiring and the feckless sitting on welfare does that not lead to stagflation where nothing moves forward except the amount of money in the system?

To my simple mind does this not all just point to one huge crash and then pump to change things as above or stagflation where nothing changes as it’s all bollocksed just the money supply increases?

Sorry for the questions but this post confused me.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, dnb24 said:

Sorry DB I am obtuse when it comes to the macro environment- some things here don’t make sense to me. 
If there are going to be more unfilled jobs than ever before- where are they coming from- at the moment Amazon seem to be pinching carers but we know the consumer is fecked in an inflationary cycle so that ain’t gonna last long. 
Are they going to come from the state then? If so where? The state’s huge as it is- I work in it and the waste is unreal- are they really going to increase in these areas. Or do you mean the state will shrink and private industry will pick up?
Then with the skilled retiring and the feckless sitting on welfare does that not lead to stagflation where nothing moves forward except the amount of money in the system?

To my simple mind does this not all just point to one huge crash and then pump to change things as above or stagflation where nothing changes as it’s all bollocksed just the money supply increases?

Sorry for the questions but this post confused me.

 

Onshoring of jobs.Inflation hits every point in a chain,so the only way to survive is shorten the chain.I know factories who turn over £10 million a day stopping over and over for lack of a gasket,a bolt,a spring etc.The cycle is turning now and will reverse a lot of the affects since 82.On top of that its a distribution cycle.People with capital are deciding to retire,or go part time and run the capital down.The welfare system has destroyed the work ethic in the younger generation on welfare,and the woke young hate working.

As i always said there would be a lot of financial dislocation as the cycle turned.Then i didnt know what it would be,or how that would play out,but its obvious now its in the supply and wage part of the economy.If you cant pay the increased wagers your going under,and the survivors will be able to pay more and jack up prices even more etc.