Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238

Gas shortages in summer. 

 

Winters going to be interesting.......... 

[jamtomorrow]

42 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238

Gas shortages in summer. 

 

Winters going to be interesting.......... 

We were already doubling up the smokeless + firewood stockpile this autumn here at Tomorrow Towers, but now wondering how long 30kg of butane might last us if we're heating pans of water for the bath on the camping stove once or twice a week.

Back boilers might be coming, er, "back"?

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does anyone have any view on whether CV19 is going to be a winter cyclical thing ?

If so, how many deaths do you think will be acceptable to Boris before Lockdown is imposed again ?

One way or another, this winter is going to be one of the most interesting we've had for some time.

The unusual thing about covid round 1 was that it peaked in March/April 20.However,round 2 uncannily landed where the usual seasonal flu season peaks.

 

18 hours ago, spygirl said:

I  cant decide whether winter will be a C19 *or* flu deaths - C19 tends to have halted flu deaths.

Or ..

C19 *and* flu.

Going by the number if little old ladies I've seen out n about, theres still enough dry kindling in the UK.

This is the rub, covid admissions to ICU soared into the January peak.Less talked about is the fact that admission for Myocardial infarctions were down 50% yoy,strokes down 60%,pneumonia down 80% etc etc.

Words genuinely fail me for the bungling of this PCR pandemic and the ensuing mess that has made Big Pharma/the Hancock's of this world rich and working people poor.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The unusual thing about covid round 1 was that it peaked in March/April 20.However,round 2 uncannily landed where the usual seasonal flu season peaks.

Covid 19 Assembly Doctor's have written this interesting letter expressing a lot of the views expressed on here regarding the govts managing of the 'panicdemic',so it's great to see some very senior clinicians turn up.I may have linked to this previously,but it should be aired as much as possible imho.

https://www.covid19assembly.org/2021/08/the-government-has-based-the-handling-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-flawed-assumptions-say-133-doctors-nurses-paramedics-and-midwives/

This is the rub, covid admissions to ICU soared into the January peak.Less talked about is the fact that admission for Myocardial infarctions were down 50% yoy,strokes down 60%,pneumonia down 80% etc etc.

Words genuinely fail me for the bungling of this PCR pandemic and the ensuing mess that has made Big Pharma/the Hancock's of this world rich and working people poor.

I think C19 runs a bit of ahead of the usual reapers.

An OAP dying of covid today would have been one dying a few months later of something else.

 

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, Starsend said:

EXTRA JUICY dividends, very tempting to buy but how sustainable are they?

Exactly, C19 showed us that divis can be `optional`, even with the big names I.e RR. still not reinstated almost 2 yrs after Covid first appeared.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

This is the time when assisted suicide comes up for discussion. (and then implemented)

It's inevitable.

It's here already, it called `assisted` vaccination! :-)

[Harley]

Some lovely technical setups in Asia atm.  Lots of gaps getting filled, especially in HK which may though just signal a temporary relief rally.  But this Japanese telco is a textbook for both a pennant chart pattern and a divergence in the technicals versus price leading to a blow off.  Waiting for a pullback to add?

PS:  Japan on watch though given the recent action in the ETF:

[Harley]

And a shout out for Singapore (should have put more down!).....

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

I think C19 runs a bit of ahead of the usual reapers.

An OAP dying of covid today would have been one dying a few months later of something else.

 

I think you could say that of the first wave,I'm not so sure about wave 2 which has performed similarly to the flu in the context of all cause mortality.Our political class seem to be totally oblivious to the fact that tens of thousands have stopped dying of the flu.

Given how many anecdotals I'm hearing about patients being diagnosed with cancer at stage 4 of late,I'm not sure the same can be said of the lockdown.

It's the old 'viruses mutate into weaker forms so as not to kill the host' reasoning.Obviously,it's taken our political elite totally by surprise that the Delta variant is more transmissable than previous variants.

[Harley]

And what's in a kiss, more a snog (more kisses below)?  About 18% the last time!  Mar20 may have broken the cup and handle pattern but you can't keep a good pattern down!  Now broken away from the US cohort (COP, etc).  But time to take a bit of profit?  Real point is, it's a big world out there!

[Harley]

As for Lukoil (especially versus say XOM, etc).  But time to move on?  ESG and all!  Hmm.

[Harley]

With all the good news of late, I too would "love to love" Repsol a little bit more but Houston we've gotta problem!  Maybe a bit more up as its seems to like a pullback in an uptrend but that has all so often ended in (head and shoulders?) tears.  Let's see some botty please!

 

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

That guy David perrell has some really astute observations .Can honestly say I've learned more on here in three years than I did at Uni.

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238

Gas shortages in summer. 

 

Winters going to be interesting.......... 

It certainly has the feel of late as @DurhamBorn has been saying, that the political mood has gone from bashing the scottish play to all of sudden prioritizing it's survival.I think thsoe that bought at £0.30 will be well rewarded for taking that risk.

Be interesting to hear what some of the more informed opinion thinks of the possibility/likelihood is of brown outs this winter.

@Transistor Man@Bobthebuilder@Cattle Prod anyone else?

[Harley]

Another one of our (former?) lovers (Chemicals Solvay) has been walking the line, but watch out for the diverging MACD?  They've gotta make up, one way or the other!

[Transistor Man]

Just now, sancho panza said:

Be interesting to hear what some of the more informed opinion thinks of the possibility/likelihood is of brown outs this winter?

I'd have always said: unlikely. I'm not as confident anymore. They do have a lot of small diesel generation to call on, and industrial demand reduction.

I guess the wind will blow more than it currently is too. 

 

 

[Hancock]

[ThoughtCriminal]

Tell me this doesnt scream everything bubble. 

[sancho panza]

hattip @Andersen  basement how does buy to let end thread

Here comes the debt deflation.......banks eyeing their Dowd Buckner ratio's and equity dilutions....

 

 

'

from teh Landlord

'I have actual experience of a recent down-valuation for a remortgage.

It is for a one bed flat in London, N5.

If you go on Rightmove, you will find that there is not a single one bed flat for sale in N5 under £350K.

I attempted to get my flat valued at £320K.

The valuer valued it at £275K!  This made it a complete waste of time to re-mortgage it.  I would have only been able to pull out £6K with mortgage set up fees of £3K.

I have now contested the down-valuation with 3 SOLD comparables provided by a very helpful local estate agent.

They are for £350K, £370K, and £410K.

I am awaiting the lender's verdict on this.

If valuers are being over-cautious it suggests that lenders are asking them to be, maybe fearing a house price correction?

Whatever the reason, down-valuations make it exceedingly more challenging for property investors to grow a portfolio as it reduces their capacity to re-cycle their cash.'

 

 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Whatever the reason, down-valuations make it exceedingly more challenging for property investors to grow a portfolio as it reduces their capacity to re-cycle their cash.'

Thats just devastating, how will these parasitic cunts be able to sit on their backsides and live the life of Reilly on someone elses labour.

[Eventually Right]

14 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Tell me this doesnt scream everything bubble. 

It makes me more concerned about the BTC and ETH I hold, as I think when this stuff blows up, everything crypto nose dives with it.

Can anyone tell me why the below couldn't happen:

If I owned a ton of crypto currency, i set up multiple anonymous wallets/accounts, and use them to buy a random NFT repeatedly between the different accounts for ever increasing amounts over the course of a few months.  This NFT now has a "sales history" of rapidly increasing prices.  Some greater fool pays me 300 ETH for my NFT, which I then convert into nearly £900k of sterling.

 

 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

To add to DB's previous answer there are also a lot of people leaving the workforce.This isn't so much an unemployment problem looming as an employment one.More people living off state the actual wokers will get more

SP, i agree. And so providing ample scope and excuse for our politicians to introduce UBI and part-time working, i.e. more (absolute?!) control of the labor-'force' - very useful - and yet another example (though not happened yet of course) of such changes being introduced much faster than expected.                                                                                                                                                                   Another aspect i've been pondering is what might the above structural changes do to wider society? (not being political, not a left/right thing, and moreover the 'net effect' could in fact be positive in terms of introducing leadership, sadly lacking for so long)... for example, might the employment, etc, changes allow a new (radical?) political party to 'capital'ise(!) on the fears and anger of people, and thus simply sweep aside our current crop of tired, ineffective politicians? ...After all, a rather neat solution for clearing the decks, whilst at the same time obtaining a new shiny mandate 'from the people'.   

 

[CVG]

33 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I top sliced it in June at 185, and now it is 166. I'm hoping that it stays around this level to invest my Sep divi's in.

My core holding is just 12 shares - BP, RDSB, RIO, AAL, BT, VOD, etc. I just rebalance my holdings of these core shares - selling the top off the risers when they get too far ahead of the rest and buying the fallers with the proceeds of sales and the divi's. Sell high - Buy low.

[HousePriceMania]

36 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

hattip @Andersen  basement how does buy to let end thread

Here comes the debt deflation.......banks eyeing their Dowd Buckner ratio's and equity dilutions....

 

 

'

from teh Landlord

'I have actual experience of a recent down-valuation for a remortgage.

It is for a one bed flat in London, N5.

If you go on Rightmove, you will find that there is not a single one bed flat for sale in N5 under £350K.

I attempted to get my flat valued at £320K.

The valuer valued it at £275K!  This made it a complete waste of time to re-mortgage it.  I would have only been able to pull out £6K with mortgage set up fees of £3K.

I have now contested the down-valuation with 3 SOLD comparables provided by a very helpful local estate agent.

They are for £350K, £370K, and £410K.

I am awaiting the lender's verdict on this.

If valuers are being over-cautious it suggests that lenders are asking them to be, maybe fearing a house price correction?

Whatever the reason, down-valuations make it exceedingly more challenging for property investors to grow a portfolio as it reduces their capacity to re-cycle their cash.'

 

 

Why would they fear a correction ?

When I say, why would they fear one...I only ask because WE'RE on the hook for their losses, not them.

[wherebee]

27 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

It makes me more concerned about the BTC and ETH I hold, as I think when this stuff blows up, everything crypto nose dives with it.

Can anyone tell me why the below couldn't happen:

If I owned a ton of crypto currency, i set up multiple anonymous wallets/accounts, and use them to buy a random NFT repeatedly between the different accounts for ever increasing amounts over the course of a few months.  This NFT now has a "sales history" of rapidly increasing prices.  Some greater fool pays me 300 ETH for my NFT, which I then convert into nearly £900k of sterling.

 

 

you just described the mainstream art market.

[Hancock]

@DurhamBorn Are you related to Nostradamus?