Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Rave said:

from January and February, given that, AFAIK, nobody was hospitalised in the UK with covid at that point?

I’m going respond just this once to reply- apologies guys- but this needs putting to bed- misinformation is a strong trigger word for me.


yes people were hospitalised in January and February- we had our first in the hospital around the 10th January- the bbc reported the first official patient from 23/1/21.


Let’s start from the top- this isn’t a lancet paper- it’s from e clinical medicine- on the lancet editorial group- not the Lancet.

It’s a cohort of people who self reported whether they had covid- 97% had no identifiable test (let’s take the pcr positive/negative- cycle threshold out of it).

It is incapable of showing any discernible differences in the cohort of people. It is cross sectional and not longitudinal with covariant structures so variable that statistical adjustment was not even attempted to “control” for premedical history (they used a Bartlett because they couldn’t use any other statistical test).

The cross sectional design won’t allow for inference of cause, and there’s significant limitation of heterogeneity. 
It’s tosh.

There may be a cognitive link to sars cov 2, in fact I would say there must be especially in those with long covid- just like other post viral syndromes- but this study is just tosh.

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 5
  • Lol 1
  • Cheers 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso

fookin hell i only made £1 on my rooney pap pics, what a waste of frigging time setting all that shit up was.

Turns out its not worth blackmailing a shaved ape. Never mind, a quids a quid eh.

  • Lol 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

I’m going respond just this once to reply- apologies guys- but this needs putting to bed- misinformation is a strong trigger word for me.

 

OK- which is why I- in an admittedly weaselly gambit- stated that I wasn't going to go so far as to accuse you of it. I was aware that you have some professional interest in the matter from reading your previous posts on this thread, and was therefore surprised at your offhand, and on the face of it inaccurate (given that the date of completion info is easy to find),  dismissal of this study. My effrontery seems to have provoked you to compose this far more detailed rebuttal, which while I admit is not the result I was expecting is still very much welcome- so thanks.

 

31 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

There may be a cognitive link to sars cov 2, in fact I would say there must be especially in those with long covid- just like other post viral syndromes- but this study is just tosh.

 

If I was on the fence about having the vaccine, then the chance that catching sars cov 2 could cause me any cognitive impairment whatsoever would be more than enough to persuade me to have it. Unless, I suppose, the spike proteins themselves are found to be responsible irrespective of whether they came from a vaccine or a viral infection. A quick google suggests that vaccines do not seem to have any history of causing post-viral syndrome, but again I would be happy to defer to your expertise on the matter if you have any to provide?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rave said:

I must admit that I hadn't read it until just now. What it actually says, in the first few paragraphs (under "Method"), is this:

 

 

The direct link to the study is here in case anyone else wants to check for themselves:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext

Did the fact that the graph in the initial couple of tweets references people who were hospitalised not give you a clue that the data was unlikely to just be from January and February, given that, AFAIK, nobody was hospitalised in the UK with covid at that point?

A bit further down, you can see that 81,000 people completed the questionaire after May 2020, when it was extended to inquire about their covid status.

I'm not going to go so far as to accuse you of deliberately spreading misinformation here but come on, it took me less than 10 minutes to skim the first few paragraphs and extract this pertinent information. It appears that four other people liked your post without bothering to check for themselves either.

 

 

So that's why you quoted a post that I had written to someone else and directly replied to me then, yeah?

I don't want to start deleting posts... Please post covid related posts in the correct forum (I quoted your post but there are also others).

Cheers...

  • Agree 8
  • Cheers 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso

cant see the point in arguing the toss, some people believe one thing, others believe another, so what, everyone can be tolerant of others views, even if they strongly disagree, surely thats all it is a difference of opinion? I dont argue with my deeply religious neighbour, and he doesnt push it on me, so its all fair.

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hancock
6 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Anyway back on thread, where are we with the road map. Gold and Silver are dropping in price and thankfully my index linked Gilts are now at their highest levels, well they were yesterday. Even higher than when I sold some. 

Yes need our own Nostradamus Mr DB, to let me know the exact date and time of the BK ... cant but help feel a interest rate rise in the next 6 months isnt going to be the great shock those claiming an 80% crash are claliming.

Anyway knocked up a list of what to spend the money formerly set aside to buy a houses on, any suggestion on how to improve it is appreciate.

Trying to do some organisation as my SIPP looks like i got a monkey to throw darts at  FTSE/NYSE companies to select them.

Harry Dent gives it another 2 and a bit months.
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/07/12/harry-dent-stock-market-crash-likely-within-3-months/

image.png.cca42a879f7517a34bea8e7ec8293c3d.png

 

Edited by Hancock
  • Informative 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

wherebee

I think I kicked off the COVID consideration within this thread by opining that must of the macro picture (rising oil demand against falling supply, inflation, etc) was dependent on the vaccines working.  If they are, instead, ineffective or even worse kill a lot of consumers, I was concerned the macro picture could be out 100% due to this global black swan.

I don't think this is the place to debate the vaccine plus or minus.  We have a whole sub forum for that.  But it IS the place to talk about what signals we might see that would indicate whether the macro inflation theory is going off the rails, so to speak.

 

  • Agree 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

cant see the point in arguing the toss, some people believe one thing, others believe another, so what, everyone can be tolerant of others views, even if they strongly disagree, surely thats all it is a difference of opinion? I dont argue with my deeply religious neighbour, and he doesnt push it on me, so its all fair.

That’s because you have no faith in the power of the Great Panther. Repent the end is neigh and your sins will be forgiven.

Panther VI chapter 6 verse 2 - Q3 report

  • Lol 1
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
4 hours ago, wherebee said:

I think I kicked off the COVID consideration within this thread by opining that must of the macro picture (rising oil demand against falling supply, inflation, etc) was dependent on the vaccines working.  If they are, instead, ineffective or even worse kill a lot of consumers, I was concerned the macro picture could be out 100% due to this global black swan.

I don't think this is the place to debate the vaccine plus or minus.  We have a whole sub forum for that.  But it IS the place to talk about what signals we might see that would indicate whether the macro inflation theory is going off the rails, so to speak.

 

Let’s face it this is Dosbods imported from HPC (what was the meaning behind TOS again?). Uncensored wars over personal opinions is what makes it a unique corner of the internet. I agree with @wherebee above.

The peaceful commune of the deflation thread in the basement, is like a WW2 commander bunker bomb shelter while battles rage on around us. We discuss the overall financial battle strategies against the bankers we are all at war with, well away from the front line.

Occasionally however the battle lines do get overrun. Fall back gentlemen! 

I’ll take the indemnity card of crypto here to mention sparingly, because I consider it will almost definitely be financially related to all of us in the future. (Oh yes and Lego) YRS can have dumpster diving. DB gets special allowances as he started this thread, he can have pizzas/pie making, M&S out of season clothes, reduced sticker bargains. Errol can have gold, blocks of gold and gold furniture.

If anyone else has any more indemnities let me know and I’ll jot them down and remind everyone If anyone objects.

 

  • Agree 3
  • Lol 3
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

wherebee
7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Let’s face it this is Dosbods imported from HPC (what was the meaning behind TOS again?). Uncensored wars over personal opinions is what makes it a unique corner of the internet. I agree with @wherebee above.

 

give me an upvote then you fucker.  I'm a rep whore. xD

  • Agree 1
  • Lol 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seacrest

Shell updates on gas this morning could be eye watering, BP are reporting out NBP of 86,  you have to go back to 2008 to see those prices - coupled with a 14% drop in storage at a time of normal increase. 

Medium/small business that have not hedged or forward purchased are going to feel some real pain here 

  • Agree 3
  • Informative 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

wherebee
21 minutes ago, Seacrest said:

Shell updates on gas this morning could be eye watering, BP are reporting out NBP of 86,  you have to go back to 2008 to see those prices - coupled with a 14% drop in storage at a time of normal increase. 

Medium/small business that have not hedged or forward purchased are going to feel some real pain here 

I wonder if retail consumers can lock in energy prices the same as businesses can.  I know you can in the USA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Queasing

The MOD takeover of Sheffield forgemasters , some information in the story relates to previous discussions, small nuclear reactors, dogger bank and turbine manufacture. 

Quote

Steve Hammell, the company’s chief financial officer, said it was hopeful of securing work on small modular reactors. Forgemasters has provided technical support to the consortium, led by Rolls-Royce, its largest customer. Rolls-Royce hopes to use the reactors in 16 small power stations around the UK. The project has not yet received the full go-ahead, but Hammell said it could be an opportunity for the company within five years.

Hammell said the company also hoped to take advantage of the government’s desire to use more British steel in projects such as the enormous Dogger Bank offshore windfarm. Forgemasters will try to use its new government links to build the 150-tonne hub castings that sit at the centre of the huge turbines.

If it's not already been posted This Statistical Review of World Energy 2021 from BP pulls together some information relevant to the thread

Edited by Queasing
  • Agree 2
  • Informative 7
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

I had a look through Telefonica Brasil

 

Anecdotal- I had an interesting conversation with some fund managers on the weekend at a one year olds birthday party! one guy ran the long investment part for pension funds in a Brazilian bank- we had a few words about how things were working- and how there might be some value in some parts of the Brazilian telecoms etc. He was pretty adamant the whole Brazilian economy was shot, people are getting their money out and he didn’t see value anywhere in their economy due to the political state. 
It was an interesting take, as these guys were very confident that the economy was coming back as pre pandemic, they were sure the London property market was going to bounce back very quickly, and that finance in the city and the commercial units would also bounce back very well. 
I didn’t want to point out DBs roadmap and how accurate it’s been so far, or point to the direction of change that i can see- as who knows what’s round the corner- but the vibe I got was “more of the same” and not any feeling of things have changed.

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

He was pretty adamant the whole Brazilian economy was shot, people are getting their money out and he didn’t see value anywhere in their economy due to the political state. 

Sounds like a contrarian's wet dream

 

Quote

I didn’t want to point out DBs roadmap and how accurate it’s been so far, or give them a link to DOSBODS but the vibe I got was “more of the same” and not any feeling of things have changed.

 

  • Lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso
3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s because you have no faith in the power of the Great Panther. Repent the end is neigh and your sins will be forgiven.

Panther VI chapter 6 verse 2 - Q3 report

i have faith, i have faith, i have seen the light, oh lordy lordy lord.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sleepwello'nights
1 hour ago, Seacrest said:

Shell updates on gas this morning could be eye watering, BP are reporting out NBP of 86,  you have to go back to 2008 to see those prices - coupled with a 14% drop in storage at a time of normal increase. 

Medium/small business that have not hedged or forward purchased are going to feel some real pain here 

Oh fuck. I bought a thirsty V8 as fuel prices dropped. Trouble was there was nowhere to go as my travel plans for a road trip were stalled by covid (sorry) travel restrictions. 

Now that it looks like travel restrictions are going to be relaxed fuel prices are going up. 

My timing definitely out of step 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Majorpain
23 minutes ago, planit said:

Shell results - $5.534bn for the qtr. 

$2bn of buybacks in the second half and 40% increase in dividend.

Beats the [outdated] analyst estimates. Trading profits were low and they still don't seem confident in their language or their strategy.

If this was repeated each quarter for the year, it gives a PE ratio of under 7. Completely crazy, these companies are prices as declining businesses.

 

I am hoping the BP results will be even better, they have a clearer strategy (which not everyone will like - but at least it's clear) and more positive attitude. I also hope that their trading arm has had another bumper qtr as the momentum in fuel prices continued from the first half. As I said before, anything less than $1bn of share buybacks for the qtr I will be disappointed with but in order form them to keep up with their promises, I am looking for $1.3-1.5bn.

Moar tasty dividends heading my way im loving it!  :Beer:

10% yield is within reach, might just be keeping up with inflation ;)

  • Agree 1
  • Cheers 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I bought them through a Vanguard fund. £180 ish in 2017, current value £230. Capital appreciation only as there is no yield from them. I sold some in January at just over £220. The low of the year so far was £200 at end of Feb.

Overall I'm content with performance, better than leaving in a bank deposit account. 

2017.  That's OK.  Wasn't on my radar that much then.  But well done you, good move.

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO/IME, we're in a lab, not a church, where everything is a hypothesis.  That's what "DYOR" means.  You don't have to believe in a hypothesis, indeed it probably helps not to, but do have to work it's probabilities and implications as you see them.

Anyway, no harm in clearing the air now and then to remind ourselves of such things.  So that just leaves one outstanding item - someone snitched to the headmaster! :)

th?id=OIP.TZQ2PmOLfB7DomyiYHD_EgAAAA%26p

Edited by Harley
  • Lol 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   1 member

    • Sugarlips
×
×
  • Create New...