Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Words genuinely fail me for the bungling of this PCR pandemic and the ensuing mess that has made Big Pharma/the Hancock's of this world rich and working people poor.

SP, you mention the Covid bungling and Big Pharma, have you read the link below? Harley posted it yesterday and it addresses both your points i think, would be interested in your thoughts.   

I'm not knowledgable enough about the economics side to know if the author has joined the dots, or if he's merely stabbing in the dark? Tbh, much of what the author writes we have previously mentioned on this thread - however it is very powerful i think to have events laid out as a narrative, and so his report was another of those 'revelatory' moments for me.     

A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Systemic Collapse and Pandemic Simulation - The Philosophical Salon

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Tell me this doesnt scream everything bubble. 

At least he didn't reinvest the original stake, just the profits. Still bonkers though.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

It's here already, it called `assisted` vaccination! :-)

...and they smile and are ever so polite - plus they also give you a choice of arm!!     (in historical terms that almost benevolent!) 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Tell me this doesnt scream everything bubble.

this one is better, here have a copy 

 

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Be interesting to hear what some of the more informed opinion thinks of the possibility/likelihood is of brown outs this winter.

@Transistor Man@Bobthebuilder@Cattle Prod anyone else?

Possibility, very high.

Probability, dont know, depends on weather.
UK came close, very close last winter, keep an eye on national grid eso twitter, not national grid themselves. They put out regular winter tweets about upcoming expected energy shortfalls. If everything goes to pot then brownouts/blackouts.

There was a big failure a year or more ago which cut out large sections of the UK grid, as usual its not just one failure but multiple compound failures. There are lots of parts of the grid that are getting by on just pure luck and its a series of interconnected grids where the vast majority of these go unnoticed and theres no cascade effect.

Nuclear going into service mode and winter lulls in wind are what to watch out for. France nuke interconnect has kept the lights on in the uk more times than not. As I may have mentioned before watch this when the new irish interconnect bypassing the UK comes on line (not sure when but this is definitely hastened by brexit - was never going to happen otherwise I dont think).

Not much change of new pumped storage, stor facilities work until they dont. Dont quote me on actual figures but I remember doing a calculation recently which worked out that all the battery production in the world each year would keep the uk going for about an hour I think (maybe not exactly but that sort of ballpark).

That doesnt even include cyber attacks or taking a couple of substations down.

Look at gridwatch from October on, theres very little if no lean in there. Particularly with load management and shutting down/curtailing heavy industrial users (if there are any left), look out for 4 day weeks etc to cover.  If you get a still cold spell with 3+ days of no wind and clear nights then its make sure you have some alternative means of light, heat and cooking to hand.

With old style lightbulbs you could see them flicker as the switching was going on if there was an outage. Again cant remember the actual number, could have been 4 attempts then fail, but I always remember if I counted 3 I started moving towards the candles and matches!

The going down is the easy bit, its the switching back on that other failures come to light. Thankfully in the case of localised outages there are mobile generators and switcharounds etc. Thats of course if you have the hgv drivers to drive them and can get spare parts easily enough...

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Some lovely technical setups in Asia atm.  Lots of gaps getting filled, especially in HK which may though just signal a temporary relief rally.  But this Japanese telco is a textbook for both a pennant chart pattern and a divergence in the technicals versus price leading to a blow off.  Waiting for a pullback to add?

PS:  Japan on watch though given the recent action in the ETF:

Thanks Harley, might be tempted as i do like the telecoms, didn't they buy ntt docomo?

[DoINeedOne]

Seems dividend tax is going up 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Thinking of what DB said last week regarding LNG shipping companies having a licence to print money in future. 

 

I had a look and there are only 642 LNG ships in the world, and 12% of those are owned by Nakilat, the Qatari Government company. 

 

Has anyone got any exposure to this market? 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Eventually Right said:

It makes me more concerned about the BTC and ETH I hold, as I think when this stuff blows up, everything crypto nose dives with it.

Can anyone tell me why the below couldn't happen:

If I owned a ton of crypto currency, i set up multiple anonymous wallets/accounts, and use them to buy a random NFT repeatedly between the different accounts for ever increasing amounts over the course of a few months.  This NFT now has a "sales history" of rapidly increasing prices.  Some greater fool pays me 300 ETH for my NFT, which I then convert into nearly £900k of sterling.

 

 

You could do that, but would be viewed by most buyers as similar to them accepting iffy sales receipts from a total stranger. Anonymity has always caused problems in regard to legitimacy, fraud, etc, always has, always will. 

But eventually even banking/finance/share trading will be on the blockchain, and then i predict that most internet activity will not be anonymous. A longish article below, but shows that even DeLoitte are currently chomping to get in on the act...     

 Blockchain: A game changer for audit processes? | Deloitte Malta | Audit & Assurance

[HousePriceMania]

The comment on twitter was Global Credit is Done! D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Another one of our (former?) lovers (Chemicals Solvay) has been walking the line, but watch out for the diverging MACD?  They've gotta make up, one way or the other!

Iv sold out of them now.Fantastic profit on them,nailed the bottom on them last year.I bought some more Centrica  and some more Asian Income,the rest im spreading across some goldies.

[HousePriceMania]

Thieving ****s.

Anything to keep their ponzi economy going.

Expect another 10 million people in the UK by 2035

[DoINeedOne]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thieving ****s.

Anything to keep their ponzi economy going.

Expect another 10 million people in the UK by 2035

Be thinking over my taxes lately works abit shit and wondering if i should close my Limited company earn less and focus on investments with CGT

[Barnsey]

Slightest whiff of some wage inflation at long last (not for me though) and BOSH, here come the tax hikes. Labour's magic money tree to return in 2024 under Burnham? Just get the sense things are being reigned in a little too quickly given we're really not out of the woods yet.

[Gin]

E Mail just now. Peoples energy putting up our prices in October..They said will will take them down when they come down.

 

 

Energy wholesale prices are at an all-time high right now. So like many other UK suppliers, we’re having to put our energy prices up. For the average household using gas and electricity, this will mean an increase of around £3.55 a week*. And for prepayment members, this will mean having to top up by roughly £2.95 more a week*.

Since February, the wholesale cost of energy has increased by 50%. Wholesale costs account for 40% of what you pay. Although we don’t like to increase prices, we can’t absorb these increased wholesale costs any longer.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Seems dividend tax is going up 

Another ruse to get people to invest in pwopatee ?

[DoINeedOne]

Anyone else got any thoughts on this

Earn around $12,500 - £50,000 which if i want to focus on investment returns and extra will keep me within the basic rate tax bracket with 10% CGT bracket 18% with property other wise its 18% and 28%

Also Make use of CGT allowance

So ISA has no dividend tax or CGT - so mostly dividend paying stocks will go here with others 

Stocks and funds account - mostly if i want to invest more and have used my ISA limit will have to pay CGT see above

Precious Metals - Thinking about using some of my CGT allowance to sell down some gold from bullion vault and use that to buy coins so hopefully reduce any future CGT (silver not a option due to premiums and VAT so they stay in bullion vault)

Pension - None don't trust the rules won't change before i can access it (probably stupid i know)

Still deciding what to do with my LTD company if i want to change and do something else 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

@DurhamBorn Are you related to Nostradamus?

BT will be in play i expect,but i really hope it doesnt get taken private.There are cycle long profits to come in the sector and i dont want it giving up to others.  @Harley warned us about everything that creates real profit being taken private so ordinary people cant own assets and it was something i didnt consider.My roadmap is proving superb,but if we get profit and return engines taken off us only 20% along the road its not good at all.We could get it all right yet still lose the lot to inflation by cycle end if we lose the assets so early in the cycle.

Goes without saying of course keep buying the sector.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Anyone else got any thoughts on this

Earn around $12,500 - £50,000 which if i want to focus on investment returns and extra will keep me within the basic rate tax bracket with 10% CGT bracket 18% with property other wise its 18% and 28%

Also Make use of CGT allowance

So ISA has no dividend tax or CGT - so mostly dividend paying stocks will go here with others 

Stocks and funds account - mostly if i want to invest more and have used my ISA limit will have to pay CGT see above

Precious Metals - Thinking about using some of my CGT allowance to sell down some gold from bullion vault and use that to buy coins so hopefully reduce any future CGT (silver not a option due to premiums and VAT so they stay in bullion vault)

Pension - None don't trust the rules won't change before i can access it (probably stupid i know)

Still deciding what to do with my LTD company if i want to change and do something else 

 

How old are you?,SIPP is as good a deal as you will get as long as not too far away from access age.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thinking of what DB said last week regarding LNG shipping companies having a licence to print money in future. 

 

I had a look and there are only 642 LNG ships in the world, and 12% of those are owned by Nakilat, the Qatari Government company. 

 

Has anyone got any exposure to this market? 

I believe so!

[DoINeedOne]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

How old are you?,SIPP is as good a deal as you will get as long as not too far away from access age.

40 i know my accountant is always banging on about it to me but my gut just tells me i should have easy access to any investments and fund

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv sold out of them now.Fantastic profit on them,nailed the bottom on them last year.I bought some more Centrica  and some more Asian Income,the rest im spreading across some goldies.

I didn't trust you nor my system enough back then so only nibbled!  Best I let mine run for now.  Not making that mistake now!  

PS:  You're like Hunter the macro guy and I'm one of the traders looking for the buy point!

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thieving ****s.

Anything to keep their ponzi economy going.

Expect another 10 million people in the UK by 2035

£2k allowance and doesnt affect ISA or SIPP divis,its easy to avoid it,more aimed at the self employed and for the gallery i think.

Iv wrote to Sunak today and told him how many jobs iv turned down and wont return to work.Told him my partner who is a nurse wont be paying income tax from today,as wont my kids.Im also going to claim ESA for 12 months and that will get my kids 16.8 years of the NI increase back.

I might even go back to my youth and nick the copper pipes from the hospital,whatever il take at least 10x from them than they take from my kids.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, DoINeedOne said:

40 i know my accountant is always banging on about it to me but my gut just tells me i should have easy access to any investments and fund

Your in the grey zone for me there.There is new legislation going through and many SIPPs will still allow access from 55 if your in a one with the right wording.It might be worth you chucking £100 in each of the big players and open SIPPs with them all.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

I didn't trust you nor my system enough back then so only nibbled!  Best I let mine run for now.  Not making that mistake now!  

Great,quality company and in really good inflation sectors.