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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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27 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow - "According to the European Commission, such a register is necessary to prevent tax evasion and money laundering. It provides the authorities with more information to map out money flows". I bet it will work nicely with the Vaccine Passport / Digital IDs :ph34r:

The original Dutch article is here to put through Google translate

 


Anyone who isn't already in the system, that has anything worth investigating, more than a couple of ounce or a bitcoin or two, will be connected to organised crime.  Good luck finding someone to do that job.  

 

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Transistor Man
33 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think a 'war economy' is exactly what we will get. It would definetily suit tptb... but with the right teams, throwing huge money into the pot, working 24/7, etc, do you think we build the nuclear infrastructure within say 5 years?                                                                                                                                                                                   

Yes I do. The preliminary design may be sized so that the large forgings can be done in Sheffield. 

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38 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow - "According to the European Commission, such a register is necessary to prevent tax evasion and money laundering. It provides the authorities with more information to map out money flows". I bet it will work nicely with the Vaccine Passport / Digital IDs :ph34r:

The original Dutch article is here to put through Google translate

 

https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/document/document-file-download.html?docFileId=110894

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Nice to know it's all the fault of that bad man rather than our own folks' ability to feck things up, in this one area at least.......

"Russia’s Vladimir Putin is orchestrating a deliberate energy supply crisis in Europe by restricting the seasonal flows of pipeline gas, preventing the region rebuilding its severely depleted inventories fast enough before the onset of winter...."

A bit much when your only plan is to blame the "bad" man for being bad!

Add NI, etc and we do seem to have reached an age if "exponential incompetence"!

PS:  What commercial organisation would sign off on a £12bn "investment" (cough) without a detailed business case and financial plan (including timelines, KPIs, etc)?

 

'Exponential incompetence' you say - I do agree, but btw Rod Liddle has for many years been calling these types of things 'peak w*nk'!!!   (just another bubble perhaps?!)                                                                                                                                                  As for budgets, I note the Elizabeth tower/Big Ben overhaul was estimated at £28 million, but has cost nearly £90 million!? ...But we do get a rather nifty Prussian Blue clock face, it's original colour apparently, instead of the drab gloomy back one.

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1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow - "According to the European Commission, such a register is necessary to prevent tax evasion and money laundering. It provides the authorities with more information to map out money flows". I bet it will work nicely with the Vaccine Passport / Digital IDs :ph34r:

The original Dutch article is here to put through Google translate

 

Because when socialists have been so bad with the money they've already taken from you, they're coming for the lot.

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7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

It's the poor bastards in modern slave boxes I feel sorry for. No chimney, no backup

Chimneys are not always the best.  Lose a lot of heat recessed into a fire place.  Better to have a stove in the open with an insulated flue.  The issue there is routing the flue as it has to go high to get the draw.

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I am strangely drawn to buy some CNA shares to join your club. nothing like having skin in the game. :)

 

The law of unintended consequences seems to be running riot with regards to gas etc as could be seen on the AEP Telegraph article posted earlier. This law will be cross-affecting lots of other things too.

 

Noticed someone mentioned an oil price spike with regards to the BK. This is the most likely way I see things at the moment:

 

Energy prices are being squeezed higher this will continue

Oil prices have had a respite due to worries and lockdowns due to Delta. This will reverse soon. Once everyone is confident that OPEC+ is in charge then the traders will push oil much higher.

Beginning of 2022 energy bills still moving higher, energy prices high and petrol/diesel prices very high.

Inflation shown not to be transitory so people start worrying and inflation rate 7% and moving higher due to the above.

Oil continues to rise and CB's start to panic that there are secondary effects of inflation pushing through to salaries etc. They have ignored the problem too long so the only solution is to tighten to show the markets they mean business (guess March 2022).

After the tightening everyone panics, stock market crashes, oil crashes, loads of people are wiped out.

Conveniently this coincides with the Covid hangover recession so things go from bad to worse.

 

 

Anyone tell me where have I gone wrong?

Cheap tomatoes now cost 75p for 4 in Tesco down south. Completely pissed me off ( I normally shop at Aldi but didn't have a car).

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4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

E5 or E10?

I'd like to burn less to save the planet.

Funny you mentioned that.  I've just been to the garage to get petrol for the machines.  I had no idea if the new stuff would work so bought the super unleaded, which has the old rating.  Of course.......drumroll......cost more!

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4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

how long does it take to dry logs?

Whoops newbie alert!  One "seasons" ones logs and "dries" ones clothes! :)  Depends on when they were cut and the type of wood.  There's a listing on the web somewhere.  Also tells you the calorific value of each type of wood.  Typical, the faster they grow, the less calorific value they are.  I felled a load of ash at a time of low sap so they would be good in only six months.  That's unusual and I would wait longer.  I started with pine and spruce.  Constantly feeding them and loads of ash!  I've also reduced my use of treated wood in my work so I can burn the left overs (a big no no burning treated wood).

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4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Gregory Copley warns that the CCP is deliberately tanking the Chinese economy to manage deflation.

https://outline.com/3UAS3M

https://m.theepochtimes.com/a-window-opens-to-irrational-behavior_3978372.html

I think this is something really worth being aware of- the CCP is central to China- even if millions die- the CCP doesn’t care- they don’t care that they’ve wiped Trillions off the Beijing and Shanghai markets ($1 trillion  alone in August)- it’s a different mindset- bloody minded. It’ll be interesting if they step away from the flexible exchange rate as they continue  “managing the deflation”- that would set the cat among the pigeons.

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Why UK house prices are rising – and why the Government can’t afford to let them crash (msn.com)

"In April, Neal Hudson (an independent analyst) warned the housing market was already defying predictions and inflated house prices could be the new normal."

"In 1929, economist Irving Fisher said: Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

 

 

Fingers crossed.

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Liquidity and free money.Noticed today Costa giving a 5% increase in pay.They said to thank staff for working so hard.More like because they cant get staff.Its now a case of push for inflation busting increases or be washed way by inflation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-employers-face-worst-shortage-job-candidates-record-rec-2021-09-09/

The pace of recruitment for permanent posts hit the highest in the survey's nearly 24-year history last month. Temporary hiring and open vacancies were not far off July's record levels.

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1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Why UK house prices are rising – and why the Government can’t afford to let them crash (msn.com)

"In April, Neal Hudson (an independent analyst) warned the housing market was already defying predictions and inflated house prices could be the new normal."

"In 1929, economist Irving Fisher said: Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

 

 

Fingers crossed.

This is LE2 sales data for May 21.

I'm sure there are some delays due to covid with registrations but still we're probably looking at 50 for May in total once the late registrations come in.In this months update you can see the issues when we're taking pricing points in an illiquid market a discussion I had with @Harley a month or two back.

The average HPI indices are also likely very poorly sales mix adjusted as well.

Having said that,there's a truth in raw data that you can't get when statisticians start playing with it.Average price in Liecester has gone from £299k to £222k mainly on the back of low vol in detached.

image.png.69457a0fe324afaf8aa5905932a257ba.png

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liquidity and free money.Noticed today Costa giving a 5% increase in pay.They said to thank staff for working so hard.More like because they cant get staff.Its now a case of push for inflation busting increases or be washed way by inflation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-employers-face-worst-shortage-job-candidates-record-rec-2021-09-09/

The pace of recruitment for permanent posts hit the highest in the survey's nearly 24-year history last month. Temporary hiring and open vacancies were not far off July's record levels.

Wait until next month when furlough ends.... if it ends.

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18 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Wait until next month when furlough ends.... if it ends.

Wont make any difference,massive demand for workers,way higher than furlough.People have taken the money,but pulled their retirement forward etc and many many others younger have tasted free money from Universal Credit and will do as little as they can.Again today iv had three job offers.In a day.Its nuts.I was chatting to the girl today who rang and she said they were losing people every day.They wanted top money if they had to even travel 45 minutes from home.They almost beg you.

Massive cycle turn underway.Huge liquidity is smashing headlong into structural changes.Every single extended chain that helped prices see deflation is now forcing inflation.The race is on for companies ,the ones who can shorten supply chains and pull more and more production close to base will survive it.Those who dont understand whats happening and are slow will be slaughtered.Road map told me to stick to de-complex assets,but now it really is with bells on.Government has created a monster and is lost,grabbing for tax that will just make things worse.

People wont work unless they get much more than welfare now,and welfare is higher than most jobs for anyone with kids.25% wage increases at the bottom end ,nothing will change that.

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2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Gregory Copley warns that the CCP is deliberately tanking the Chinese economy to manage deflation.

https://outline.com/3UAS3M

https://m.theepochtimes.com/a-window-opens-to-irrational-behavior_3978372.html

I think this is something really worth being aware of- the CCP is central to China- even if millions die- the CCP doesn’t care- they don’t care that they’ve wiped Trillions off the Beijing and Shanghai markets ($1 trillion  alone in August)- it’s a different mindset- bloody minded. It’ll be interesting if they step away from the flexible exchange rate as they continue  “managing the deflation”- that would set the cat among the pigeons.

Interesting that he sees that central to Modi's plan is to go to war with Pakistan to isolate China.WOuld obviosuly bring the West in on India's side non?

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1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

As the man says....you really cant make this shit up

you mean to say the FED guys and the Bogdanoff bros were in the same team as along?

Well roger someone with a baguette and a French tickling stick :ph34r:

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HousePriceMania

What is it we keep saying....Watch what they do....

Kaplan and Rosengren are either the most ethical bankers in history or a pair of ****s who are selling out at the top of a bubble they know is about to have the rug pulled from it.

Which could it be ?

image.png.38bdc3ae0378b28a04c8baede8e50417.pngSo Kaplan

 

 

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