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spunko

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

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3 hours ago, subutai80 said:

Palladium on an absolute tear! currently up $165 / oz on the day.

Its one of the problems i have with Sibanye's current valuation, the 204m Oz of P4E stuff skewed to Palladium for $7bn of market cap?  Thats before you get to the 104m oz of gold....

Only fly in the ointment is Palladium is rising on supply shortages for car exhausts, the kind of thing that gets hit in deflationary crashes!

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7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its one of the problems i have with Sibanye's current valuation, the 204m Oz of P4E stuff skewed to Palladium for $7bn of market cap?  Thats before you get to the 104m oz of gold....

Only fly in the ointment is Palladium is rising on supply shortages for car exhausts, the kind of thing that gets hit in deflationary crashes!

Next cycle people will start giving miners a value based on oz in the ground,and that will be the time to sell probably.

Has Sibanye 4x yet from the bottom for anyone on here?

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8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its one of the problems i have with Sibanye's current valuation, the 204m Oz of P4E stuff skewed to Palladium for $7bn of market cap?  Thats before you get to the 104m oz of gold....

Only fly in the ointment is Palladium is rising on supply shortages for car exhausts, the kind of thing that gets hit in deflationary crashes!

Wow, am I a monkey's uncle for selling Sibanye at $4.00 (albeit at a 55% profit)...

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Next cycle people will start giving miners a value based on oz in the ground,and that will be the time to sell probably.

Has Sibanye 4x yet from the bottom for anyone on here?

As per my previous post, I bought at an average of $2.60, but lost my bottle way too soon.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Next cycle people will start giving miners a value based on oz in the ground,and that will be the time to sell probably.

Has Sibanye 4x yet from the bottom for anyone on here?

I'm about 3x, though sold a chunk at 2.5x. Still, great tip, many thanks for that!

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On 13/01/2020 at 08:17, null; said:

noticed the other day that UK gas futures are at another 2 year low, less than half what they were in Oct 2018. What is driving the low prices, is it simply over supply? And is that over supply real, or just preception of it? I read so much about US gas being on the edge of going into decline, yet everyone else seems to think its going to carry on, do they know something

Good question. Everything in nature declines, and oil and gas fields in aggregate follow a normal distribution. Individual fields tend to me more lognormal (though big ones go back to normal dist). Gas supply needs to be broken down regionally due to cost of shipping. There is a perception of abundant supply in the states, but it is currently being held up by the Marcellus and Haynesville. So I will watch with interest.

I'm not sure what UK futures you looked at, but North Sea wholesale prices are still good. I think my company is hedged at 60p/therm. 

There was a boom in large offshore gas discoveries about 10 years ago, since developmed via expensive megaprojects (up to $45bn in Oz). Thsts unlikely to happen again. That LNG glutted the market recently, Im not sure when itll end. 

I see demand steadily increasing for years if not decades.

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8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-15y?countrycode=bx 

15 year gilt back below 0.9% 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51147634

Notice even food sales falling.People maxed out of course.Looks like the margin pressure is really biting now.Your doing a fantastic job if you can hold turnover,but input costs keep going up.The government forcing through big NMW increases is crazy in this macro situation.

Rates down and easing should be the story now,but they are too late,the damage is in the system.Big ticket items will be next like cars.Id expect the average age of cars on the road to go up from here .

 

 

Probably trying to support the bottom of the housing market 4.5x joint income etc. To them house prices are THE economy.

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On 13/01/2020 at 22:23, Barnsey said:

keep banging on about housing, but do you think I’d be mad for offering 2010 price (when current owners bought in the dip) + RPI on a house I’ve seen which has probably had an extra £20

That was my metric when I bought in the SE 18 months ago (Insane, right?!). My house had previous sale prices go8ng back to 2002, so before the froth. I took that price and RPI'd it to present, and offered that (under). 10 year fix and forget it. I sleep comfortably and have not once checked house prices in my street or town since, I couldn't care less. I'll look into it in 8.5 years time. If I have equity, great, if not, whatever. I'll pay the balance with my silver stash.

The key to this is not having to trade up. 

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On 15/01/2020 at 05:55, sancho panza said:

hoever is left standing will do well.How you getting exposure to the commodity CP?

Gazprom, Shell for safety. Spreadbet on fcg for fun. Stsrting to look at US shale specialists like Chesapeake and Devon. Looking at buying options, but have found Saxo very clunky so far. I'll try IB too. Centrica also has gas exposure through Spirit. And I like DBs viewa on midstream (pipelines etc). The guys selling the picks and shovels made the real money in the gold rush days!

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8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-15y?countrycode=bx 

15 year gilt back below 0.9% 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51147634

Notice even food sales falling.People maxed out of course.Looks like the margin pressure is really biting now.Your doing a fantastic job if you can hold turnover,but input costs keep going up.The government forcing through big NMW increases is crazy in this macro situation.

Rates down and easing should be the story now,but they are too late,the damage is in the system.Big ticket items will be next like cars.Id expect the average age of cars on the road to go up from here .

 

 

I do wonder if there's a slight level of depopulation going on

I was in Coventry city centre today.University wasn't as busy with people as a few years back.Could be the time of year.Record levels of student hosuing goingup though.

 

What data you referring to?This

https://www.talkingretail.com/news/industry-news/food-sales-fall-sharply-december-17-01-2020/

Sales at food stores fell by 1.3% in December and by 0.6% over the past three months, new industry figures reveal.

 

 

7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

When beloved value chains Primark and Premier Inn are reporting lower than expected sales...

No coincidence Provident Financial (Vanquis) reporting very good numbers recently, lender of last resort to pay for essentials.

Remarkable that so many retialers are staying up.Interesting as well to see UK hosue builders bombing up past previous peaks eg BDEV

https://uk.investing.com/indices/general-retailers-components

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Next cycle people will start giving miners a value based on oz in the ground,and that will be the time to sell probably.

Has Sibanye 4x yet from the bottom for anyone on here?

We got some at $2.60 and tranche 2 at $5.Still holding though.Can see them heading down fro  here.

 

Do you remember our chat about Impala ? They were roughly $1.50 at the time.Don't look :ph34r:

We never dabbled.

 

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1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Gazprom, Shell for safety. Spreadbet on fcg for fun. Stsrting to look at US shale specialists like Chesapeake and Devon. Looking at buying options, but have found Saxo very clunky so far. I'll try IB too. Centrica also has gas exposure through Spirit. And I like DBs viewa on midstream (pipelines etc). The guys selling the picks and shovels made the real money in the gold rush days!

Intersting to see RDSB as one of the few FTSE fallers today.Incredible.

Was thinking about sixing up some options trades on saxo.It is clunky.I much prefer Interactive Brokers.Less fuss.They do the mulitcurrency stuff for you,whereas on Saxo you have to move currencies yourself.I don't like the dealing screen either.BUT the options are super.(I alos like IB's portfolio page whereas with Saxo its at the bottom of the dealing screen)

Was chatting to my Mum today and was saying this bubble has the feel of 2000 all again.Tech stocks rumbling to unprecednet levels,old economy stocks flat as a pancake.I'm looking at these oilies and whilst I'm not metaphircally filling our boots(I think there may be more to come on the downside),I have been steadily moving in as you know XOM <$70,ENI<E14,RDSB<£23,BP<£5,EQNR<£20,Total<E47 etc.Ducked out of Gazprom in August,living to regret it.

 

Ref pipelines,have you got any you're sizing up?

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On 16/01/2020 at 22:43, DurhamBorn said:

You guys should really consider moving up here.Newcastle airport 30 minutes,Kings Cross 2hrs 10 mins from Darlo mainline station.Coast 20 minutes away,Lake District 1hr 20,Scotland the same.Its very safe (apart from Boro).Just avoid the small ex pit villages and stick to the bigger market towns.Durham itself is on the east coast mainline.

Always fancied Barnard Castle. Been trying to talk the wife into it.

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Next cycle people will start giving miners a value based on oz in the ground,and that will be the time to sell probably.

Has Sibanye 4x yet from the bottom for anyone on here?

+349% for me (before capital gains tax)

Edited by Sound Money

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Next cycle people will start giving miners a value based on oz in the ground,and that will be the time to sell probably.

Has Sibanye 4x yet from the bottom for anyone on here?

I've bought @2.24 and still holding, 397% up! :)

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On 16/01/2020 at 22:39, DurhamBorn said:

They saw a foot off the beds usually.They also place mirrors all over the place to make them look bigger.The ones near me now all have ^ shaped gardens,about 12 foot long with a bit of false grass and two paving slabs for the bins.Utter shit they are.

Ah, and there was I thinking the mirrors were there to appeal to buyers sexual peccadilos!...and I suppose if you are `into` dwarfs and role playing that would explain the beds as well?! :-)

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20 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Could the afford, or want to, pay that? 

 

This...I don't think it necessarily a case of not being able to afford to pay (although it is), but wanting to pay. I have worked hard for my capital and made many sacrifices, I am not prepared to gift it to someone else just because The Market `tells` me I have no choice...I do have a choice!.

In contrast to this, as the majority of people buying only have a small deposit the sums borrowed are meaningless/abstract, they have been conditioned to the belief that owning is the only `way`, and so they have no choice but to pay whatever the price.

Until a greater number say "No" (or are forced financially to say no), we wont see a HPC.

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11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Intersting to see RDSB as one of the few FTSE fallers today.Incredible.

Sterling went up a bit against USD? RDSB often moves down if Sterling goes up due to USD earnings. The same applies to VOD but in Euro terms, that also went down yesterday. 

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See how its all turning out as we said over two years ago.The dis-inflation cycle ending is forcing the hands of governments.We wont be alone,the EU will follow and then the US and of course China.Javid is 100% right that the market is sending them a signal to spend on infrastructure.Its actually really good for the UK if he kicks this in quickly and might help us compared to the EU etc and before the input prices go up by large amounts.The message is clear and the road map is clear.Inflation might have one last fall,perhaps into outright deflation,but then it turns and heads up.The only question is how high.Low range says 8% by 2027,high range says 16%.

Im really pleased to see the government start to openly say all this.It shows our macro models showing the road map are on track.The reflation is now almost certain.We should be very well placed on this thread to navigate.

 

"Mr Javid said the extra growth would come from spending on skills and infrastructure in the Midlands and the north of England - even if they did not offer as much "bang for the buck" as projects in other parts of the country.

Historically low interest rates, which allow the government to borrow money relatively cheaply, were "almost a signal to me from the market - from investors - that here's the cash, use it to do something productive", Mr Javid said."

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38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Historically low interest rates, which allow the government to borrow money relatively cheaply, were "almost a signal to me from the market - from investors - that here's the cash, use it to do something productive", Mr Javid said."

WTF.  He's talking (signalling) to himself then!

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

We should be very well placed on this thread to navigate.

Turning that into a practical watchlist is a very big jump though!!!!!

I'll do you a deal:  you suggest what to buy and I'll suggest when!

Edited by Harley

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