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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko
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DurhamBorn

Could it be the two socialists in the photo might take their foot off the neck of the Scottish play,and i hope they didnt get to keep the jackets.

prime-minister.jpg

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6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

One of my thoughts was on the incredible amounts of coal and diesel used used for all that concrete, steel and machinery.

That is exactly what I thought. What a waste!

I view everything through the lens of ECoE these days. Thanks a lot to whoever led me to the Surplus Energy concept. It's been a revelation.

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Castlevania
9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is there a cumulative effect? A few days with little wind is fine, just run nearly everything at full whack. After a while some plants need to shut down for repair. I'm not sure how quickly the pumped storage can refill and if that has been compromised.

If they're in trouble now they'll fail at some point in the winter. Still they increase demand by bringing in unproductive migrants.

That’s my understanding. We had a cold start to the year so gas use was elevated for heating. Then we’ve had several months where there’s been little wind, so to keep the lights on they’ve been burning more gas and other fossil fuels than would normally be the case. Supplies are low and haven’t been replenished.

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40 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I was driving buses in 2009 when the nearby distribution warehouses (Tesco being the main one) were dropping their driver pay to £8 an hour because of excess (mostly foreign) labour, so we had loads come across as we had shortages. Interesting to now see the reverse in play.

Edit: obviously bus companies got savvy and did the same, recruiting drivers directly from Poland etc, hence why salaries have stagnated for a decade now. My pay in 2009 was £9.85 an hour. 12 years later, £11.10 an hour. That'll change, I've had a look at First Bus vacancies throughout the UK and never seen so many listed before.

That's insane.

A person responsible for the safety of hundreds of people every day paid ten quid an hour.  

 

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

That's insane.

A person responsible for the safety of hundreds of people every day paid ten quid an hour.  

 

The Easterns got by ok, all house shares in the worst areas, ate cheaply and worked every day they could and sent the rest back to their families. Doesn't work that way with local population. 

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8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Could it be the two socialists in the photo might take their foot off the neck of the Scottish play,and i hope they didnt get to keep the jackets.

prime-minister.jpg

A couple of virtual signallers - "look as us, got real productive and honest jobs".

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jamtomorrow
5 minutes ago, Harley said:

A couple of virtual signallers - "look as us, got real productive and honest jobs".

Proper job cosplay wankers

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ordinary people knew how shafted they were with the EU.Its the reason Labour destroyed itself,tax credits and EU workers.Our economy is maybe the best in the world in the privte sector,but the state and welfare class sucking out half of the productivity instead of the workers getting more.Like you say why driven fat lazy Susan and her benefit kids around for that when you can go to Amazon for the same money and work 4 shifts a week.

More from the coalface of care.My partner was on shift last night,7 in the county,usually 21.More on the sick.Bosses still all sat at home doing nothing.My partner had to attend a fall on her own,supposed to be two and she has hurt her back.Some of the sick are the bone idle ones,but no bosses in to do anything.A younger one left because she has decided not to work until her child is at school,with childcare she decided benefits were better.Lives with her partner but doesnt.

Our economy was set up so Chinks and Europeans did a lot of the work,and now we have a system where you dont need to work if you have kids.Unless the government slash welfare i cant see anyway out accept huge wage inflation.

My seasonal job has finished for this year so I’m back in the market. I live in a total backwater (Herefordshire) so there’s never a lot to apply for but I’ve never seen so many vacancies. Probably 50% care work - I won’t consider anything to do with personal care for the pay offered (~£9-10/hr) unless desperate on principle, these jobs should be paid at least 50% more.

The county used to be heaving with Poles, the road sign on the main road to Leominster is regularly spray painted Poland. But these surly, grunting retards have all but disappeared. Presumably all the money stashed from living 5 to a room and putting chicken in a plastic tray for 80 hrs a week has been converted to zlotys and they’ve fucked right off.

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25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ordinary people knew how shafted they were with the EU.Its the reason Labour destroyed itself,tax credits and EU workers.Our economy is maybe the best in the world in the privte sector,but the state and welfare class sucking out half of the productivity instead of the workers getting more.Like you say why drive fat lazy Susan and her benefit kids around for that when you can go to Amazon for the same money and work 4 shifts a week.

More from the coalface of care.My partner was on shift last night,7 in the county,usually 21.More on the sick.Bosses still all sat at home doing nothing.My partner had to attend a fall on her own,supposed to be two and she has hurt her back.Some of the sick are the bone idle ones,but no bosses in to do anything.A younger one left because she has decided not to work until her child is at school,with childcare she decided benefits were better.Lives with her partner but doesnt.

Our economy was set up so Chinks and Europeans did a lot of the work,and now we have a system where you dont need to work if you have kids.Unless the government slash welfare i cant see anyway out accept huge wage inflation.

But the flip side to this is the middle class parasites with their endless non jobs be it in the public and private sectors ... along with Britain becoming a rentiers paradise in the last 25 years ... and so much of the economy becoming financialised.

The actual productive part of the economy is tiny.

Edited by Hancock
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DurhamBorn
1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Still can't quite bring myself to go all-in on my SIPP like that.

I'm 10 years from drawing age, and 10 years is a long time to trust whatever sequence of arseholes we get in 11 Downing Street not to come a-raidin' - feels like a sitting duck situation, especially knowing what we know about how f***ed government finances are.

They've started screwing state pensioners, can't see why they'd stop there.

Its difficult,but remember they all use SIPPs and only a small part of the general population do.The main risk is them pushing back the age all the time that you can take it.However the advantages of them are huge.I can use my partners to save all her tax,every penny,then get it all out tax free at £16700 a year using her allowance + 25% tax free cash.Full drawdown a month before state pension kicks in.There are risks,but iv decided the government arent getting my,my partners or my kids tax.

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Could it be the two socialists in the photo might take their foot off the neck of the Scottish play,and i hope they didnt get to keep the jackets.

prime-minister.jpg

Auditions for the Alvin Stardust tribute band!............I'll get me zimmer frame!

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OK not much new but very @DurhamBornesque on the later national debt stuff.  I wasn't sold on the logic used in the first segment but I was laying patio at the time!  I'm pretty up to speed on all this debt stuff but still need to hear it (well put) to be motivated to take action through good old fear.

https://palisadesradio.ca/antony-davies-the-end-of-your-social-security/

And this is why we will have CBDCs and they are happily shafting the old monetary system and working towards digital ids.  I wonder if the polos will largely cut out the CBs and get in bed with corporate managed digital currencies instead.  

And like DB, he also cuts some slack for the CBs, laying the blame directly at governments and those who believe them.

Edited by Harley
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DurhamBorn

Temporary eh :Jumping: ,so that means all the inflation we are getting will reverse and prices return to pre last March.Temporary means short term,going away etc.What a complete set of frauds our ministers and MPs are.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uks-javid-says-inflation-jump-is-likely-temporary/ar-AAOsypy?ocid=mailsignout

Well another job offer before 10am this morning.This one was fantastic because it is bang on what the roadmap predicted.The firm needs 100 extra people across several roles.Reason is they have closed supply in a few countries and brought it in house.This is a good company and reasonable pay.The guy said they were struggling to fill the roles,they had 60,but people keep leaving so they were nowhere near what they needed.It was nice to actually speak to someone who understood the situation.He agreed companies who wouldnt pay more wouldnt get staff.I turned it down of course, i told him i wasnt prepared to work shifts anymore and the money wasnt enough to tempt me.I slipped in it would be  good job for younger people,but he said most of the below 30 years olds they had taken didnt turn in half the time and just kept leaving .

My worry is the government cracks though and opens the EU floodgates again.The economy needs this healing process and they need to let it run its course.

 

 

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ordinary people knew how shafted they were with the EU.Its the reason Labour destroyed itself,tax credits and EU workers.Our economy is maybe the best in the world in the privte sector,but the state and welfare class sucking out half of the productivity instead of the workers getting more.Like you say why drive fat lazy Susan and her benefit kids around for that when you can go to Amazon for the same money and work 4 shifts a week.

More from the coalface of care.My partner was on shift last night,7 in the county,usually 21.More on the sick.Bosses still all sat at home doing nothing.My partner had to attend a fall on her own,supposed to be two and she has hurt her back.Some of the sick are the bone idle ones,but no bosses in to do anything.A younger one left because she has decided not to work until her child is at school,with childcare she decided benefits were better.Lives with her partner but doesnt.

Our economy was set up so Chinks and Europeans did a lot of the work,and now we have a system where you dont need to work if you have kids.Unless the government slash welfare i cant see anyway out accept huge wage inflation.

DB does the amount of wage inflation you now anticipate feed back into your figures for inflation over the cycle so that cycle inflation would need adjusting upwards, I think you've mentioned 65% for inflation over the cycle. 

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I was driving buses in 2009 when the nearby distribution warehouses (Tesco being the main one) were dropping their driver pay to £8 an hour because of excess (mostly foreign) labour, so we had loads come across as we had shortages. Interesting to now see the reverse in play.

Edit: obviously bus companies got savvy and did the same, recruiting drivers directly from Poland etc, hence why salaries have stagnated for a decade now. My pay in 2009 was £9.85 an hour. 12 years later, £11.10 an hour. That'll change, I've had a look at First Bus vacancies throughout the UK and never seen so many listed before.

Yes, for me that 'Polish bus driver phenomenon' back in the early days, plus the media frenzy over how great it all was - was the first signal for me that things just didn't make sense. When employers repeatedly spoke (propagandised) about not being able to hire local people/or that local population were unreliable, i knew somehow that they were lying, and more importantly that social problems were inevitable. However, our politicians - and the media - turned a blind eye, and i won't ever forgive those political parties for doing that.     

 

 

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