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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko
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9 minutes ago, janch said:

All those poorly insulated, draughty, high ceiling Victorian houses with "features" beloved by Kirsty and Phil aren't going to look so clever unless people use the grates for real fires and start collecting firewood.

Ah yes Kirsty "somehow we made it to Disney world for our holibobs when all Brits are banned from the USA" Allsop and Phil "one of us but African Trophy Hunter" Spencer. As Ben Hunt would say, burn it the f**k down.

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DurhamBorn
2 hours ago, Shamone said:

How do you keep getting all these offers, if you don’t mind me asking? LinkedIn? I guess I could claim contribution based JSA but I’m not interacting with those cunts. It’s Indeed for me.

Indeed and other sites.Upload your CV with a new title every month and it highlights your active.I change the date each time CVSEPT21 etc.Plus my CV is with the agencies who tend to handle the big process industry/pharm/chemical industry.Im getting calls from both from ordinary factory work up to Field Technician,thats someone who runs a big chemical plant.One has been phoning back over and over with better offers,but im not interested.I would of taken it if i wanted a job.

I claimed contribution based JSA because im getting every penny i can out of them,ESA next for mental illness due to lockdown xD .

Edited by DurhamBorn
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DurhamBorn

As i said on the thread a while back the new age access at 57 had loopholes in the draft legislation i noticed.Seems the pension industry has spotted them as well,and wants them scrapped.It doesnt want people to access their money at 55,fancy that.They also of course know that if they havent worded their pensions right then shrewd investors,and they will likely have big funds will transfer to wrappers that do have the right wording.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-9989301/Trade-body-slams-Governments-complicated-rules-private-pension-age-rise.html

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DurhamBorn
2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I need to get this straight. You're talking about manufacturing industry, aren't you? What the hell are the managers doing sat at home?

The buyers as well.Last job we were shutting lines down because of running out of gaskets and similar simple stuff.The buyers were working from home.They will be returning now slowly,but a mess still.Of course the lads on the line got the grief,so they used to just keep quiet when they were running out and think sod it.

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Yadda yadda yadda
8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The buyers as well.Last job we were shutting lines down because of running out of gaskets and similar simple stuff.The buyers were working from home.They will be returning now slowly,but a mess still.Of course the lads on the line got the grief,so they used to just keep quiet when they were running out and think sod it.

That means shit controls are in place. They don't know what is in stock unless they're told by the production staff. Someone could just steal stock if they wanted. Farce.

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Noallegiance

Random thought of the day - could energy become so expensive that it's cheaper to employ people to do the jobs automation would have done had energy not become so expensive?

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DurhamBorn
8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Random thought of the day - could energy become so expensive that it's cheaper to employ people to do the jobs automation would have done had energy not become so expensive?

My main take was energy would get expensive so meaning supply chains would shorten creating lots of jobs here.It shows why you need to be diverse though,one i expected to gain was Go Ahead as its fuel hedges meant its costs lagged fair increases.However the nature of the cycle turn has meant they have no drivers and half their customers are sat at home.You can be dead right,yet very wrong.I got lucky on them buying more when they collapsed and selling them when they doubled for a profit,but not how i expected.

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11 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Random thought of the day - could energy become so expensive that it's cheaper to employ people to do the jobs automation would have done had energy not become so expensive?

Not before everyone is starving to death. Employing people is really expensive and will be more so after the NI increases.

Staff are unreliable, make mistakes and emotional. Energy is pure and ironically, also made by God. :)

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belfastchild
1 hour ago, Harley said:

Useless?  Really?  How do you define that?  A bit worrying to read that.  But yes, I would go for the ability to charge from the mains or a generator in addition to solar.  There's stuff on the web but a minefield.  Do you have any links to suppliers, info, etc please?

 

My average output on a 5Kwh system for November is about 87kWh, December is about 50kWh, January is around 77kWh.

I am in NI and have 4kWh split 50/50 east west with 1Kwh facing south primarily angled for shoulder months. I did think about another couple of panels angled for just December but I top out already in May and it really probably wouldnt be worth the effort.

Ive a 9.6Kwh battery system and ASHP so all in cost me about 10k. I get about 600 quid a year in rocs/fit, have cut my oil usage by a third (down to about 600-700 litres a year, dont use it at all really between end of March and about now). My electricity bill last year was about 100 quid.

There really is no option for solar from late Oct through to early March, my batteries never really charge at all in those periods.

Have posted about it elsewhere in the Q+A I think but on a long ferry ride tomorrow so will check for you.

Has all been part of my prep plan, put the money into that first, instead of shares etc.
 

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1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

What to make of this...

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-9667905/Bank-need-start-turning-tap-inflation-rises-says-Haldane.html

 

Bank of England may 'need to start turning off the tap' of QE as the economy is going 'gang-busters' and inflation is rising, says Andy Haldane

 

now....

 

 

Democracy anyone ?

And the much vaunted independence?

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sancho panza

Basement dweller thesis goes more mainstream

It's Putin versus Greta & co.......can't imagine who'll win

 

https://www.investing.com/analysis/4-catalysts-now-sparking-soaring-european-energy-prices-200601820

4 Catalysts Now Sparking Soaring European Energy Prices

By Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.Commodities7 hours ago (Sep 15, 2021 04:50AM ET)
 
 
 

Electricity prices across Europe are surging, and it isn’t even winter yet. In the U.K., the price for baseload electricity hit £354 (US$491) per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Monday. That's 700% higher than the average price for the 2010-2020 decade. Intraday prices during peak demand times are even higher, reaching as much as £1,750 (US$2,425) per MWh.

The phenomenon is not just hitting Britain. On the Continent, Germany has seen its electricity rates doubled, now trading at above €100 (US$118) per MWh. France and the Netherlands are also seeing elevated charges. But, the winter freeze potential wouldn't be complete without a look at natural gas whose prices have tripled as of late.

This incredible jump in prices is very concerning for European consumers, especially because it is only September. What does that mean for the winter season? Unless the situation is rectified, consumers can anticipate paying even more exorbitant rates—with some possibly forced to go without heat and/or electricity.

The problem is not just the result of a lack of supply and high demand. Certain European policies designed to facilitate a transition to clean energy are exacerbating the situation.

That means that increasing energy supplies will not be sufficient to relieve soaring costs or the potential that rates will again rise precipitously with future events. But, there are other players to the party affecting the situation.

Here's a brief look at four such catalysts:

1. Low natural gas stocks

Stores of natural gas in Europe hit their lowest levels in years this August. This was attributed to a surge in demand as economies relaxed pandemic restrictions this summer.

During the pandemic, natural gas demand dropped, and producers cut output. They failed to increase production in preparation for a summer surge.

2. Russia cut natural gas flows to Europe

For reasons that are not yet clear, Russia cut its deliveries of natural gas to Europe in late August, reducing them even further in September. Some analysts have speculated that this was a deliberate move by Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), which owns the Nord Stream and Nord Stream II pipelines.

The Nord Stream delivers natural gas from Russia to Germany, which then distributes the commodity to other European countries. Nord Stream II is another such pipeline that has been built, but isn't yet operational.

The controversial Nord Stream II pipeline, which mirrors the first Nord Stream pipeline, is not yet in use due to European regulations. Some analysts think Gazprom is cutting gas supplies to Europe to raise the price of natural gas and pressure the European Union to allow Gazprom to start pumping natural gas through Nord Stream II.

According to Gazprom, the problem is that Europe’s sudden increase in natural gas demand coincided with already scheduled maintenance and preparations for the winter which it cannot delay. Gazprom says it has reduced natural gas flows to Europe in part because it is preparing for expected high demand this winter. Part of this preparation, they said, requires pumping gas into underground storage facilities.

3. Carbon permits push fossil fuel prices higher

Higher natural gas prices have pushed European utilities to switch to coal fired plants. :D:DHowever, European regulations stipulate that utilities must offset the higher carbon emissions from coal by buying more carbon permits, which are traded on the market.

Higher demand for carbon permits pushed up those prices, making coal just as expensive to burn as natural gas. :Jumping:This, in turn, increases the cost for the consumer.

4. North Sea wind stopped blowing

Britain’s particular electricity price crunch is exacerbated by its reliance on wind farms in the North Sea. The United Kingdom typically generates about one quarter of its power needs from these wind farms. But in September, the power generated from this wind has dropped to just 11%.

For investors, the European power crunch helped lift the share prices of liquified natural gas (LNG) companies, like U.S. exporter Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG). Commodities traders have seen the price of certain types of coal rise and natural gas prices in Europe, as mentioned earlier, are skyrocketing.

The EU carbon benchmark contract is also up and likely to remain elevated as long as Europe continues burning more coal to meet demand. Oil prices haven’t been significantly impacted by the power situation so far, as power plants have turned to coal rather than oil.

It is possible that Europe’s soaring electricity prices could even out by October when Russia resumes normal natural gas deliveries to Europe. A big help could come if the Nord Stream II pipeline starts operating. However, the fear of a natural gas shortage may keep electricity prices at higher-than-average levels all winter.

Acute situations like the one seen now will likely become more frequent and more intense in the coming months and years as countries across Europe move forward with plans to close coal and nuclear plants to meet climate change targets.

The current situation highlights the dangers for Europe of relying too heavily on unreliable renewable energy and Russian institutions that pursue their own interests over Europe’s. Even after this current situation is settled, these same problems could very easily return at some point.

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BurntBread
5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I know i sound like Mr Doom but everyone on here should take measures to ensure independent heating capability for winter.

To quote that great thinker Han Solo "I've got a bad feeling about this". 

That's nothing. I'm finding it difficult to resist walking up to random people in the super-market to say, "WE'RE LIVING IN A FANTASY WORLD NOW ... REALITY HAS BEEN DESTROYED!"

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DurhamBorn
28 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I guess the scrapping or not of the UC uplift will tell us much of what we need to know @DurhamBorn

100%.If they back down and leave the increase then massive problems ahead as they will never get them to work or work more hours.Remember as well its £6 billion.I think the autumn statement will be crucial and set the direction.If they push investing in getting people into work etc then thats the first step before really cracking down.This is what happens though when you introduce more spending the left and the media go crazy when its removed.They simply dont understand that printing inflation is destroying low earners buying power.

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2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

My average output on a 5Kwh system for November is about 87kWh, December is about 50kWh, January is around 77kWh.

I am in NI and have 4kWh split 50/50 east west with 1Kwh facing south primarily angled for shoulder months. I did think about another couple of panels angled for just December but I top out already in May and it really probably wouldnt be worth the effort.

Ive a 9.6Kwh battery system and ASHP so all in cost me about 10k. I get about 600 quid a year in rocs/fit, have cut my oil usage by a third (down to about 600-700 litres a year, dont use it at all really between end of March and about now). My electricity bill last year was about 100 quid.

There really is no option for solar from late Oct through to early March, my batteries never really charge at all in those periods.

Have posted about it elsewhere in the Q+A I think but on a long ferry ride tomorrow so will check for you.

Has all been part of my prep plan, put the money into that first, instead of shares etc.
 

Excellent thanks.  A very smart approach.  Do the batteries not charge because you're using all the output in Oct to Mar?  How long ago did you invest the £10k as that sounds good value including an ASHP?  How large an ASHP?  Do the panels and COP provide enough heat out of the ASHP during the winter months? 

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Bobthebuilder

One, two, three, four
One, two (one, two, three, four)

Let me tell you how it will be
There's one for you, nineteen for me
'Cause I'm the taxman
Yeah, I'm the taxman

Should five percent appear too small
Be thankful I don't take it all
'Cause I'm the taxman
Yeah, I'm the taxman

I'll tax the street
(If you try to sit, sit) I'll tax your seat
(If you get too cold, cold) I'll tax the heat
(If you take a walk, walk) I'll tax your feet
(Taxman)

'Cause I'm the taxman
Yeah, I'm the taxman

Don't ask me what I want it for
(Ah, ah, Mr. Wilson)
If you don't want to pay some more
(Ah, ah, Mr. Heath)
'Cause I'm the taxman
Yeah, I'm the taxman

Now my advice for those who die (taxman)
Declare the pennies on your eyes (taxman)
'Cause I'm the taxman
Yeah, I'm the taxman
And you're working for no one but me (taxman)

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Bricormortis

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/pm-to-make-national-security-announcement-alongside-us-and-australian-leaders/ar-AAOtPdv?ocid=msedgntp

 This is big......US, UK, Australia to make an alliance of sorts against China.

Boris announcing details at 10.00 pm

Australia gets a nuclear sub off  America.

As part of the deal Aussis to tell France to go put their 90 billion dollar order for nuke subs where the sun dont shine cobber. :)

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