Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

Bricks & Mortar

DXY is back up, 97.88.  Been steadily rising since turn of the year.  It's maybe just waiting for a catalyst to kick it on down?

But, just in case there's something up, I took another look at that Brent Johnson Dollar Milkshake Theory.

Found a more recent video, and a podcast.  The video, in particular, I thought gave me a better understanding of his theory, mostly because he speaks slow and used very simple pictures.  At 3:25, he shows a chart with the DXY nearing the end of a rising wedge, (check me!  a year ago, I'd have thought that was something for levelling a ladder).  His hypothesis, is it breaks upward and goes to all-time highs - while DB and others in this thread think its going down.  2nd part of the video is all about what it means for Canada - which maybe isn't in that different a position to Great Britain.
I'm just keeping up with this, in case it suddenly does the unexpected.

https://omny.fm/shows/know-your-risk-radio-with-zach-abraham-chief-inves/brent-johnson


 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Came across this list on Twitter when reading up on Hydrogen 

obviously DYOR but from the tweet they all play a role in Hydrogen so something to look through apparently oh look Shell is on there tooEO7d4LcX4AIyR8N.png.138fbfde9e4e682b4b056fbe6c6ec0da.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep.Local pub i used to drink in when i was young now charging £2.20 to £2.40 for different pints and really busy again and lots of younger people.Sport on as well and got a good feel again.Last time i went in with me dad i had 8 pints and had change out of £20.My dad always used to say work out your wages on a pint and a chicken xD

Bloody hell tha must be made a brass throwing itbart like that.

In Spoons I paid £1.99 for a Doom Bar on Thursday. Ruddles was cheaper.

No Sam Smith pubs within range?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Are they owned by Stonegate? They give a lot of freedom to their pub managers to set prices, order in different types of drink and show or not show sport.

The pub me and my Flatmate used to frequent was a Stonegate pub that was either the same price or cheaper than the rather soulless Wetherspoons around the corner. Plus they had TV screens everywhere that showed all the sport. £2.80 for Fosters or Carling in zone 3 London. It was always busy.

I've been going to a Stonegate and their themed days make Spoons look expensive.

Double beef burger, cheese, bacon and chips with a pint of Guinness for £5.99 on a Tuesday

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
On 25/01/2020 at 10:42, Cattle Prod said:

Sure, if it were a Spanish Flu situation that killed millions. This is not a pandemic, just a run of the mill viral epidemic like SARS, Ebola or Zika. Horrible for those affected of course, but just noise in terms of energy demand. 

I'm sure one of these will unfirtunately become a pandemic some day, but until then it won't affect energy demand. Of course paper oil traders treat everything like a pandemic, so I think you're right about that.

All I meant was that the fear, whether it turns out to be bad or not, is bound to affect the oil price. If it all blows over the timing might fit nicely with DB's 3 month bottom. Then up up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Bloody hell tha must be made a brass throwing itbart like that.

In Spoons I paid £1.99 for a Doom Bar on Thursday. Ruddles was cheaper.

No Sam Smith pubs within range?

Oh you can get that price in Spoons,but in my home town 1 mile away its £2.20,but in there you get sport on,singers etc etc.There used to be 17 pubs in my home town of 10k people,lots have closed and there are now 9 including three clubs but they are mostly doing well now.I guess there is enough for people to have a pub crawl,but not spread people too thin.They all mostly fiddle as well.They get some of their booze from the white van man,and all sell a few spirits off the books.I guess just enough so they can keep the rest of the prices down and viable.Iv notice in the one doing the sport and £2.20 a pint is doing very well with young people and can be quite busy even at quiet times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They get some of their booze from the white van man,and all sell a few spirits off the books.

If you're a pub landlord and you're not doing this you're simply missing a trick tbh. The pubcos set prices and quotas from on high and the margins are wafer thin. I managed the bar in a restaurant for a while and it was shocking. Ended up getting a lot of our beer cash in hand just to try and turn a profit. That's without counting the extra losses you get with real ale, I.e. sediment and shelf life. Definitely not an easy business and that's before you have to deal with any customers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Came across this list on Twitter when reading up on Hydrogen 

obviously DYOR but from the tweet they all play a role in Hydrogen so something to look through apparently oh look Shell is on there tooEO7d4LcX4AIyR8N.png.138fbfde9e4e682b4b056fbe6c6ec0da.png

 

 

interesting list.

I owned some AFC energy but sold when its price rose, figuring these smallies will get bought out anyway, and it is impossible to decide which of them has the winning tech. However I've probably sold too but didn't really appreciate the hydrogen sector potential.

I own some Linde also, which is the worlds biggest industrial gases supplier so no risk of takeover I hope - however my next ladder was at 1.80 but looks as though I may have missed that boat.

.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Though I would post this for those new to the financial game or like me, just a more visual learner...helped me contextualize what DB et al are talking about:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Harley said:

Apparently David Hunter predicted the recent consolidation/pull back in gold/silver which he said would be followed by big gains, but then (in q3 I believe) one last pull back in gold/silver that may sort-off coincide with US stock market falling to 3000, but quickly followed by the big 'melt-up' beginning late this year. Interesting, but not sure how he gets to that q3 pull back for gold/silver at a time when the stock market is also falling?

I think DB also predicted that we might get one last chance to load up on the PM's after they had seen a big rally, and then its of to the moon in terms of prices apparently.

Harley, do your technicals indicate anything similar happening? If we do I would definitely use that opportunity to buy more silver if/when cheap.     

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, JMD said:

Interesting, but not sure how he gets to that q3 pull back for gold/silver at a time when the stock market is also falling?

Think I read somewhere people selling gold positions en masse and causing a price drop

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone dipping into those hydrogen stocks tomorrow?

Any thoughts on movement in light of what's going on? 
(Appreciate that's more a trading question than an investing-as-per-this-thread question)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Loki said:

Anyone dipping into those hydrogen stocks tomorrow?

Any thoughts on movement in light of what's going on? 
(Appreciate that's more a trading question than an investing-as-per-this-thread question)

First thing I have to do is get Hargreaves Lansdown to take in my 4 private pensions so hoping to get serious in a couple of weeks.

Scary but liberating.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Anyone dipping into those hydrogen stocks tomorrow?

Any thoughts on movement in light of what's going on? 
(Appreciate that's more a trading question than an investing-as-per-this-thread question)

Whatever happens with the virus, China will still grow at 6%! :)

Seriously though, this thing is starting to look contagious and nasty.  Im going to top up my stock of tinned food just in case....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

I trust the CCP's numbers :ph34r: 

Im just hoping that they are not lying about it being contained, not going to be much use if gold is through the roof but ive got Viral Pneumonia to deal with.....

Waiting 3 years for the deflationary crash to arrive and then this crap happens is just my luck!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it me or...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/impulses-lunar-fed-policy-under-repo-madness

How long will it take before the Fed makes a mistake, and repo rates shoot to the moon followed by a deflationary credit crisis?

All it takes is the failure of a big bank or hedge fund to meet its commitments and the whole complex web of agreements comes undone.  In short, a liquidity crisis could quickly contract credit with far reaching implications.  Namely, rapid deflation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Whatever happens with the virus, China will still grow at 6%! :)

Seriously though, this thing is starting to look contagious and nasty.  Im going to top up my stock of tinned food just in case....

My black swan plan for next week is to start buying oil producers.  Last week was bad, I'd imagine things will get worse before they get better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a younger man I would quake at the potential repercussions of mistakes at work.

I wonder what it's like having the global financial system disintegrate in the palm of ones hand...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

My black swan plan for next week is to start buying oil producers.  Last week was bad, I'd imagine things will get worse before they get better.

Any in particular in mind? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

First thing I have to do is get Hargreaves Lansdown to take in my 4 private pensions so hoping to get serious in a couple of weeks.

Scary but liberating.

Might as well?

Quote

 

Get £50 to £500 in cash when you transfer to HL 

Our cashback offer is now on. Transfer pensions worth over £5,000 to HL and we'll give you between £50 and £500 as a thank you. 

You transfer We pay
£5,000 - £24,999
£50

£25,000 - £49,999
£75

£50,000 - £99,999
£100

£100,000 - £124,999
£200

£125,000 or more
£500

To keep the cashback, all we ask is that you hold your investments with us for at least a year.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Might as well?

 

Well I found out that the biggest one of the four is passive 50% in US stocks and the fund has gone up in line with the current bubble since circa 2005.

I figure if I don't move it I stand to lose a large portion, if I do move it I'll be responsible for losing any myself with the potential for not losing it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...