Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

ok here's a graph 

quote

Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve will admit to what is happening. The Fed is using two separate programs to accomplish this, with a sufficient degree of complexity that it becomes difficult for average citizen to follow where the money is coming in from and what it is being used for

source http://danielamerman.com/ there's some interesting 'shit' on there, scare's the shit out of me anyway 

[Loki]

The only problem with that sort of thing is if I'm going to use a matrix or map to stick with @DurhamBorn's theme:

 

Do I want his Ordnance survey quality layout of the territory

Or do I trust my own drawn on the back of a fag packet with a blunt pencil

A map is either right or wrong - there a different types of maps, scales, etc. But it's either accurate or not.

[nirvana]

Gold just had a small dump, me and Gordon are in again! 

 

 

[Rave]

Long time reader of and very infrequent poster on this thread here, mainly because I don't have any spare cash to invest.

What I do have though is a few gold brits which I bought close to the previous high and have been hoarding ever since. In GBP terms they're finally worth more than I paid for them, and given that DB (and David Hunter on twitter) are saying that there'll be a selloff before gold shoots to the moon, I am thinking I ought to pull my finger out and actually do something rather than just get washed about by the tide. So I'm steeling myself to maybe give this little bump in gold another week or two to play out, then get the train up to London and cash three quarters of them in, then stick the proceeds in my ISA and buy BP/Shell, maybe Vodafone or similar stocks that look cheap on the day?

Then find a way to actually make some spare money so I can replenish the gold stash if/when it sells off...

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, confused said:

Gold just had a small dump, me and Gordon are in again! 

 

 

$3bn notional futures dumped, because thats what real markets looks like 

Silver was smacked down to the $18.60 line in the sand, someone really doesn't want it above that!

Buying pressure however continues to increase.....

[Loki]

5 hours ago, confused said:

TULLOW OIL down 10%

 

 

 

 

They look like a good investment at that dividend and price - have you got any TLW?

[BearyBear]

7 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

It's going up pre-market. I was considering getting a small amount if it dropped

...and it finished -3 %  

[Majorpain]

45 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

RDSB divi up to 8% now, and pretty much zero chance of it being cut in the future. I'm happy to top up here and lock it in for years to come. My number 1 goal in investing is to have a dividend income that makes me a free man.

0% in the bank or 8% from one of the biggest oil companies.

Sums up how mad the world is today....

[Loki]

42 minutes ago, Rave said:

Long time reader of and very infrequent poster on this thread here, mainly because I don't have any spare cash to invest.

What I do have though is a few gold brits which I bought close to the previous high and have been hoarding ever since. In GBP terms they're finally worth more than I paid for them, and given that DB (and David Hunter on twitter) are saying that there'll be a selloff before gold shoots to the moon, I am thinking I ought to pull my finger out and actually do something rather than just get washed about by the tide. So I'm steeling myself to maybe give this little bump in gold another week or two to play out, then get the train up to London and cash three quarters of them in, then stick the proceeds in my ISA and buy BP/Shell, maybe Vodafone or similar stocks that look cheap on the day?

Then find a way to actually make some spare money so I can replenish the gold stash if/when it sells off...

That sounds exactly like what I would do, if it's any help

[Bear Hug]

8 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

...and it finished -3 %  

I managed to buy buy close to the top). Small amount though, ~£150. Purchase, not the loss

[Rave]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just ask yourself "what do I want?"

To get as rich as possible with as little effort as possible obv. 

Thanks, and thanks Loki. I could of course buy gold miners, though presumably they'll also take a pasting in any gold selloff? I'll maybe keep a bit of powder dry for that eventuality.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Iamcynical said:

Do you all buy the shares and take the hit on the 0.5% stamp duty ?  Or do you sometimes go the CFD route ?  From reading it seems you still get a share of the divi with a CFD and avoid the stamp, but the feeling I get is that owning the shares is best for medium term.

Please help a novice 

Pay the stamp duty,i hold these for a cycle (around 8 years+) so its nothing.I also dont want counter parties,its bad enough being in a nominee.CFDs could go up in smoke,we simply dont know,best to avoid.

[Talking Monkey]

6 minutes ago, Rave said:

To get as rich as possible with as little effort as possible obv. 

Thanks, and thanks Loki. I could of course buy gold miners, though presumably they'll also take a pasting in any gold selloff? I'll maybe keep a bit of powder dry for that eventuality.

I'm steadily unloading my PMs as gold/silver climbs as I think in the Big Kahuna they will really drop, dunno what others think to this strategy

[Agent ZigZag]

2 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I'm steadily unloading my PMs as gold/silver climbs as I think in the Big Kahuna they will really drop, dunno what others think to this strategy

Im keeping hold all of my isa and SIPP  PM shares. If we have a sell off I want to add wesdome and Barrick to my list and add to others already held. I will sell some Harmony and Sibanye soon I guess as I added earlier this year for the ride up to make a small profit. EVeryones strategy must be unique to them. I am very likely going to retire next year at 49. I have just come to the end of my working life or is it a mid life crises. I have enough cash in place now for 5 years living expenses. I hold a rather large gold and silver holding that I aim to sell just enough under the annual tax allowance each year  and add to my SIPP and ISA. My financial  portfolio it must be said is very unbalanced and in someways a bit scatter gun. 

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

I helped my sister remortgage on a 10 year fixed last year and she got a good rate (2%). I explained that while rates might drop 0.5%, it was more likely that they would rise in the long term. The main thing was to ensure that she was protected from rates shooting up to 5%+.

Initially she was more concerned about not missing out if rates fell, but I showed her the bigger risk was not hedging against rate rises. 

It’s going to be painful to watch if rates shoot up, as a lot of people are going to really struggle.

 

My son has had an offer accepted today on a lovely 3 bed semi £120k.They have £20k to put down so borrowing £100k,they are going to get a 10 year fix.No penalties to leave after 5 years and 5%,4%,3%,2%,1% first 5 years.10% over payments allowed with no penalty,hes also been buying a lot of silver.He is going to keep the silver until 2027/28 unless it ever equals the mortgage amount then he will sell and pay off the mortgage.They will try to pay chunks off each year.I like the fact after 5 years they have another 5 years fixed at these rates,but can re-mortgage at any time.That gives them a 2nd five year window to pay down,pay off,or re fix if they want to.If rates are where they are now then they will simply re-fix and carry on paying off.If im right on the cycle and rates end up at 8%+ then his silver should of bagged enough to clear the mortgage.

Id expect the house they have got might go down £20k in a big sell off,its at 2003 price now and in an area where they sell very easily.If it had gone up with inflation from 2003 it would be around £200k now so inflation adjusted thats a big fall since 2003.

[Loki]

59 minutes ago, Rave said:

To get as rich as possible with as little effort as possible obv. 

Thanks, and thanks Loki. I could of course buy gold miners, though presumably they'll also take a pasting in any gold selloff? I'll maybe keep a bit of powder dry for that eventuality.

I can't get my head around precious metal mining stocks. I'm sticking with oil/energy, comms and infrastructure. As well as physical PMs. They are more tangible to me.

[BearyBear]

Gold and Silver have bearish daily pinbars... especially Silver is looking weak now  

[Alifelessbinary]

I recently helped a member of my team transfer to the York office, as his dad became sick and constantly travelling back home from London was wearing him down. While I’ll be sad to see him go as he was a real grafter it’s an amazing opportunity for him. From a quality of life perspective he’ll feel like I tripled his salary.

The amount of people who are prepared to swop their health and sanity to live in a cheaply constructed shoe box astounds me.

Ever since I became chartered 12 years ago I’ve saved all my pay rises and bonuses. The vast majority has been invested in ISAs (the bull market and indexes have been kind) or used to pay off my mortgage.

The biggest trick large London firms use is to get you hooked on excessive spending, massive mortgage, expensive clothes, holidays ect.. This is solely to trap you into working until you drop. For years I’ve endured strange looks for eating homemade sandwich or flying easyJet rather than club. The difference is though that if made redundant I could probably retire, while most of my contemporaries are only a couple of pay checks away from disaster. 

[Shamone]

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Im keeping hold all of my isa and SIPP  PM shares. If we have a sell off I want to add wesdome and Barrick to my list and add to others already held. I will sell some Harmony and Sibanye soon I guess as I added earlier this year for the ride up to make a small profit. EVeryones strategy must be unique to them. I am very likely going to retire next year at 49. I have just come to the end of my working life or is it a mid life crises. I have enough cash in place now for 5 years living expenses. I hold a rather large gold and silver holding that I aim to sell just enough under the annual tax allowance each year  and add to my SIPP and ISA. My financial  portfolio it must be said is very unbalanced and in someways a bit scatter gun. 

Good for you, I’m similar age, work part time and never want to go back to full time again, nor pay income tax to subsidise scoundrels. Think it’s as much about finally waking up as a crisis.

[Shamone]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

My son has had an offer accepted today on a lovely 3 bed semi £120k.They have £20k to put down so borrowing £100k,they are going to get a 10 year fix.No penalties to leave after 5 years and 5%,4%,3%,2%,1% first 5 years.10% over payments allowed with no penalty,hes also been buying a lot of silver.He is going to keep the silver until 2027/28 unless it ever equals the mortgage amount then he will sell and pay off the mortgage.They will try to pay chunks off each year.I like the fact after 5 years they have another 5 years fixed at these rates,but can re-mortgage at any time.That gives them a 2nd five year window to pay down,pay off,or re fix if they want to.If rates are where they are now then they will simply re-fix and carry on paying off.If im right on the cycle and rates end up at 8%+ then his silver should of bagged enough to clear the mortgage.

Id expect the house they have got might go down £20k in a big sell off,its at 2003 price now and in an area where they sell very easily.If it had gone up with inflation from 2003 it would be around £200k now so inflation adjusted thats a big fall since 2003.

He sounds a wise young man, obviously the apple didn’t fall far from the tree. My wife and I got a 10 year fix similarly. Did the overpayments and took a slight hit and paid the mortgage off completely having done quite a bit of overtime. Gives you options.

[Bobthebuilder]

29 minutes ago, Simon said:

I am very likely going to retire next year at 49. I have just come to the end of my working life or is it a mid life crises.

Well done, awesome work.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Alifelessbinary said:

I recently helped a member of my team transfer to the York office, as his dad became sick and constantly travelling back home from London was wearing him down. While I’ll be sad to see him go as he was a real grafter it’s an amazing opportunity for him. From a quality of life perspective he’ll feel like I tripled his salary.

The amount of people who are prepared to swop their health and sanity to live in a cheaply constructed shoe box astounds me.

Ever since I became chartered 12 years ago I’ve saved all my pay rises and bonuses. The vast majority has been invested in ISAs (the bull market and indexes have been kind) or used to pay off my mortgage.

The biggest trick large London firms use is to get you hooked on excessive spending, massive mortgage, expensive clothes, holidays ect.. This is solely to trap you into working until you drop. For years I’ve endured strange looks for eating homemade sandwich or flying easyJet rather than club. The difference is though that if made redundant I could probably retire, while most of my contemporaries are only a couple of pay checks away from disaster. 

My last job i had the 2nd oldest car in the car park and that really upset me,over 700 cars and yet someone had an older one.My old Pug has been a hell of a car.2.0l diesel of course and still pulls like a train.Very little wear on the engine,though very slight smoke on ignition now for a few seconds, so tiny amount of oil maybe getting into the piston chambers.The drivers seat is like leather now though and my partner shakes her head every time she gets in it,and avoids it if she can  ,iv accepted the fact that the day is coming when i have to say goodbye,but il do my best to keep her going.I think its cost me about £14 a week since i bought it if its worthless now.If i can keep it at that,so spending say £500 a year keeping it on the road il be happy.

[Bear Hug]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My last job i had the 2nd oldest car in the car park and that really upset me,over 700 cars and yet someone had an older one.My old Pug has been a hell of a car.2.0l diesel of course and still pulls like a train.Very little wear on the engine,though very slight smoke on ignition now for a few seconds, so tiny amount of oil maybe getting into the piston chambers.The drivers seat is like leather now though and my partner shakes her head every time she gets in it,and avoids it if she can  ,iv accepted the fact that the day is coming when i have to say goodbye,but il do my best to keep her going.I think its cost me about £14 a week since i bought it if its worthless now.If i can keep it at that,so spending say £500 a year keeping it on the road il be happy.

This thread has inspired me to quit leasing and drive 10y old Clio my mother sold me.  By buying it, I have already paid less than the lease for the last 6 months would have cost me. 

I had Golf R before but after a while realised that its horsepower is being completely wasted on me as there are 3 main states:

- Parked

- Stuck in traffic

- Constant speed on motorway

None of the above require 300bhp, plus passengers hated the acceleration that I liked so much.

 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

 I have just come to the end of my working life or is it a mid life crises.

Well much to my surprise it hit me hard at 50 and not the expected 40.  Very well done at 49.  Time is very precious, although traditional work can (used to be?) fun until it's not!  Like Forest Gump, I just suddenly gave up the running one day and went off to do something else without the bells and whistles.  I used to fret about how traditional work would end and whether I had the guts and then it just happened.  Surreal.  I still miss it at times though, like smoking!

[nirvana]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

RDSB divi up to 8% now, and pretty much zero chance of it being cut in the future. I'm happy to top up here and lock it in for years to come. My number 1 goal in investing is to have a dividend income that makes me a free man.

Ok I'm confused again 

Is this what you're buying and why is the total dividend only $1.88? Which is echoed on Shells own website too

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/dividends

10 hours ago, Majorpain said:

$3bn notional futures dumped, because thats what real markets looks like 

Silver was smacked down to the $18.60 line in the sand, someone really doesn't want it above that!

Buying pressure however continues to increase.....

Dangers of daytrading eh......only $3bn, FED reps be like...