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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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reformed nice guy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/central-banker-who-declared-inflation-dead-is-battling-it-again

“The lesson” from central and eastern Europe “is that inflation across the Western world is likely hibernating rather than dead,” said Emiel Van den Heiligenberg, head of asset allocation at Legal & General Investment Management in London.

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6 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/central-banker-who-declared-inflation-dead-is-battling-it-again

“The lesson” from central and eastern Europe “is that inflation across the Western world is likely hibernating rather than dead,” said Emiel Van den Heiligenberg, head of asset allocation at Legal & General Investment Management in London.

I don't understand that: "Even in a world where more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates has largely failed to ignite prices" 

I'm seeing large price increases everywhere I look at. Maybe the author should visit less known places like San Francisco, Hong Kong, London or Sydney and ask locals about house prices and renting costs in the last 10 years. Then maybe try to connect dots..?

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9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

even tempted to sell the yellow stuff to buy oilies

I did that this week. Maybe too soon but I'm in for the long haul.

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11 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Not nice seeing Gold heading down with stocks today, but I’m thinking it’s a liquidity thing (hopefully not the big kahuna though!)

This is purely emotional market bollocks about any likely supply chain disruption, if shelves start going bare on an industrial scale then will be the time for gold to shine.

Nothing goes down (or up) in a straight line either!

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4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Hong Kong just deployed Helicopter money, $1300 to every Adult.  

China next?

Wow..! HK$10000 for every adult! (approx US$1300)

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9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Got some at $0.76 t'other dayto balance our $3 ones..Tempted to buy more NGD to be fair.

I guess I'll hold my nose and get a position myself, especially after this nugget from Guyana Goldfields:

https://www.guygold.com/News/News-Details/2020/Guyana-Goldfields-Inc-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2019-Production-and-Anticipated-Ore-Supply-Gap/default.aspx

I want a turnaround story and it looks like GUY won't be it so NGD it is.

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23 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Hong Kong just deployed Helicopter money, $1300 to every Adult.  

China next?

If I'm a HK shop-keeper I'm just about to up my prices to rake that in, thanks!

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12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Tempted to buy more NGD to be fair.

 

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

I guess I'll hold my nose and get a position myself, especially after this nugget from Guyana Goldfields:

https://www.guygold.com/News/News-Details/2020/Guyana-Goldfields-Inc-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2019-Production-and-Anticipated-Ore-Supply-Gap/default.aspx

I want a turnaround story and it looks like GUY won't be it so NGD it is.

Brave.xD I'll be happy just to get back to where I was.  Still Over 50% down

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12 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

My point still stands.

If you took out a loan and the terms on which it is granted allow the lender to vary the loan depending on certain defined circumstances then that will stand. The issue I'm referring to, and what @MrXxxx intimated, was that a lender could call in a loan whenever they wished. They can not change the contract unilaterally it has to comply with the agreed terms. I very much doubt that a term, even if stated explicitly and not hidden away in the small print can override an essential element of the contract. 

Margin calls can be enforceable, but usually they allow the borrower to remedy the shortfall and bring the loan back to the parameters specified or pay a higher interest rate. 

I just don't see how it can be equitable to lend money with the condition that I can demand repayment in full whenever I feel like it. That is usury.  

bit in bold you're bang on.West Bromtried to unilaterally change the t+cs.I was jsut saying west brom wasn't about margin calls.my bad.

you have rights under statute that can't be trumped by a contract term hence it's an unfair contract term.Not a lwayer tho.

margin calls will only be used on solvent borrowers with a main home worth repoing .There's nothing comepls the banks to sue these t+cs farily although that might get tested in court if someone can afford it.

commerical loans have some pretty steep terms @spygirl has soem knowledge on that.usury is more about lending moeny to people at rates they can't pay back.in a debt deflation,there might be some interesting unexpected phone calls from banks to BTLers.

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4 hours ago, Alex said:

I did that this week. Maybe too soon but I'm in for the long haul.

Our gold fields,sibanye,harmony,alamos,barrick,sandstorm,kinross etc etc all up by a decent stretch.I've always said I'd sell the sector in a oner but anticiapted a weak dollar phase first.the long term plan was to swap capital growth for income,a year away but this current swap looks sorely tempting.

as @Cattle Prod says tho I have to watch confirmation bias here.

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

This is purely emotional market bollocks about any likely supply chain disruption, if shelves start going bare on an industrial scale then will be the time for gold to shine.

Nothing goes down (or up) in a straight line either!

Any pullback in the yellow stuff is bull market trembles.till we've hit a dollar high,it hasn't even really begun,but I am looking at the oilies and thinking wtf.

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3 hours ago, kibuc said:

I guess I'll hold my nose and get a position myself, especially after this nugget from Guyana Goldfields:

https://www.guygold.com/News/News-Details/2020/Guyana-Goldfields-Inc-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-2019-Production-and-Anticipated-Ore-Supply-Gap/default.aspx

I want a turnaround story and it looks like GUY won't be it so NGD it is.

we're in guy.it's a small position as befits it's small amrket cap.I'm runnign a strategy where our first line stocks are $4bn market cap plus,second/third line in terms of weighting is $1bn plus(where the bulk of the capital is,Guy is foruth line.but some of these smallies are going to ten bag,you need to be spread wide enough if you;re a spray n prayer like me to catch one.if we get two then happy days,anything after that is a bonus.always welcome the views of proven stock pickers liek yourself.( I even bought more HMY last friday at $3 on the back fo the chat between you,majorP and DB re the Anglo deal-I have no shame -so thank you.)

I'm watching the goldies here for some buying opps BVN,NCM,OR recycle some of the NWM into something little more elveraged.

Must say that new CEO has manaeged the something getting you on board K :-).Far more impressive than the teachers pendions fund

 

our foruth fifthlines are not doing anywhere near as well as line 1/2/3 but thats what you'd expect for this point in the bull.Only let downs are IAM,OGC,NGD.Coudl be worse given what a shocking stock picker I am.

lines 4/5=AXU,GORO,RIO2,Integra,GuySGI,RSGR,MAI,

line 6 POG lol.

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Hey SP I've got some Petropavlovsk (POG) too and it isn't doing too badly.  My miners are all on LSE so I'm missing out on the ones on NYSE etc but I don't want the faff of the W8 form for buying US stocks plus I haven't got the funds to "spray and play":)

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1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I had a chat with @DurhamBorn a few months ago about the dollar; I thought it had to tag $100 before turning, technically. Just a little more than his call, near as dammit. Long term resistance line there, I couldn'tsee it turn without a brief test. It tagged 99.81 the other day....is that the top? Lets see....

It shook out a lot if dollar bears, I think.

I see the dollar down to 90 here,maybe 87 ,it could be what turns oil upwards even as liquidity doesnt turn for another two months or so.I removed my bottom ladders from the oil stocks and bought yesterday,i very rarely do that.I also changed the buy points on the other two ladders higher.I still think oil might tag $43,but there is more and more building that the bottom in the stocks and the commod could be in before that.Its not a risk i can take missing the complex as i see it as key to wealth preservation in the next cycle.Iv still capital to deploy lower down it they hit,but now have a decent sized amount of capital in the sector.

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TheCountOfNowhere

Just catching up on all this after being sick with a high fever, cough and short of breath... I kid you not. 

 

Looks like shells taken a pumelling

 When to buy in? 

Now or when 150million weaklings are dead. 

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9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Just catching up on all this after being sick with a high fever, cough and short of breath... I kid you not. 

I hope it's not the Cerveza virus...!

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Democorruptcy

President Trump is reportedly very angry about the stock market going down due to coronavirus scaremongering. Looks like he has ordered the plunge protection team to get their fingers out today.

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

President Trump is reportedly very angry about the stock market going down due to coronavirus scaremongering. Looks like he has ordered the plunge protection team to get their fingers out today.

So it's them buying! I was wondering who has the courage... :)

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I see the dollar down to 90 here,maybe 87 ,it could be what turns oil upwards even as liquidity doesnt turn for another two months or so.I removed my bottom ladders from the oil stocks and bought yesterday,i very rarely do that.I also changed the buy points on the other two ladders higher.I still think oil might tag $43,but there is more and more building that the bottom in the stocks and the commod could be in before that.Its not a risk i can take missing the complex as i see it as key to wealth preservation in the next cycle.Iv still capital to deploy lower down it they hit,but now have a decent sized amount of capital in the sector.

Count yourself lucky to have funds. Ive been waiting for a six figure sum transfer  for 5 weeks now for this very moment and am unable to take advantage of current prices

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