Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

On 01/04/2020 at 08:53, Majorpain said:

RDSA is Dutch registered - you pay Dutch Witholding tax on dividends

RDSB is UK registered - you dont pay the withholding tax.

Have a guess which one you want and DYOR as i may be wrong!

Bugger, but nice to see the B team win for once!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, XswampyX said:

What do you think the average 20 year old is going to do...

a) Get tested, find out they haven't had it and sit around at home all day.

b) Pretend they have been tested and go out anyway.

So then the police will have to keep stopping everybody and check their identity and test results.

If it turns out a large number have had it (big if) then suggests it's not such a big deal and go for the Swedish, HK, etc option?

Making this on-topic, the markets would fly and then probably bust as the fundamental problems (plus the recently created ones) are still there, but the thread thesis would be intact+!

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Possibly a dumb question that has been answered, why is nuclear the problem with Centrica? I'm very bullish nuclear from here on, it will be essential base load for any green economy. Is it the quality (or lack of ) their nuclear assets? Shame if they know how to run nuclear reactors and lose those skills, they will be needed. I wish the technology would move on though, it's still stuck in Cold War mentality with weapons material as a by product. I was very interested in the small scale reactors BAE proposed, govt seemed uninterested.

Indeed. And didn't Rolls Royce also have some designs for mini nuclear plants, working off their work done previously for powering our nuclear subs I believe?

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Good ideas there @JMD Phone posting so just a quick one to say thanks

Most of my portfolio is in stocks (which is a BIG learning curve for me!), but I still want 20% in country etf's/themed funds, once/if the markets hit their bottom, as want exposure to overseas value stocks in EM's and think this is best practical way to achieve it.

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

Most of my portfolio is in stocks (which is a BIG learning curve for me!), but I still want 20% in country etf's/themed funds, once/if the markets hit their bottom, as want exposure to overseas value stocks in EM's and think this is best practical way to achieve it.

I bought a little JRS taster over two transactions and it seems to be one to watch.  

I'll have to do some proper emerging market research when i get a chance.

[Harley]

6 hours ago, PaulParanoia said:

What's the collective thoughts on this one?  Takeoff or a fake rally?

I've only invested a 3rd of my pot so far, taking a cautious approach in case of multi month falls in share prices.

Is £14.50 still a good price for Shell.  Getting some serious FOMO this morning.

Defo not advice (who knows) but my technicals have RDSB heading for a buy signal on the weeklies this week.  But amazingly the monthly did not fully penetrate into the buy zone!  Momentum, etc would have to fall further for that to get triggered!  Momentum is improving but not the averages.  But we are at the extremes so who really knows if all the ducks line up at times like these.  We now have my technicals at the levels of the 2015 low, which presaged a major bull but I note back then we had a similar rally from the low only for it to fall once more before starting the ascent.  On the other hand, may have been a good risk/reward entry point for some back in 2015.

PS:  I already have all the RDBx I need, mostly at a higher price!

PPS: The monthly charts take away some of the FOMO!

[Long-game]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

SP, I written here I have been critical our lack of virus testing since start of its outbreak here. Actually, I find how virus's spread fascinating. I do respect your professional insight into these things but some thoughts occur to me... especially in regard to the impact of virus's in relation to different societies/cultures... 

Aren't there other differences between the UK and those countries you mention - proximity to China meant that those countries probably mistrust and knew China was underreporting the virus threat (whereas we in the West were debating whether this was/wasn't even a pandemic); an adherence to rules, so although no government lock-down, they operate in a culture that is/was already in many ways already self-isolating; and perhaps most crucial of all - more cleanliness, and an everyday use of face masks. i.e. I notice today that there are reports that face masks may be at least as protective against the virus as the obeyance of performing social distancing rules.

 

However, ultimately for me 'closing-down' the economy, lock-downs, etc, are a massive over reaction. I would have preferred a very focused isolation of the old, ill/vulnerable, along with proper support including extra hospital beds, etc. Couldn't the achievement of 'herd immunity' and 'flattening the curve' been equally as successful by using these measures?  

Too be honest I have become very uneasy about why government's have rushed to implement such policies. I'm not into conspiracies (and please don't have nightmares!) but I shall pose the question: Have we just witnessed a 'power grab' of the economy by the authorities?

For example, the recent Radio4 interview with Lord Sumption, a former justice of the supreme court, is rather sobering...full interview link and transcript extract below... https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gt59

Lord Sumption - The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it's not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It's usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat. That's what I fear we are seeing now. The pressure on politicians has come from the public. They want action. They don't pause to ask whether the action will work. They don't ask themselves whether the cost will be worth paying. They want action anyway.   And anyone who has studied history will recognise here the classic symptoms of collective hysteria.     

Hysteria is infectious. We are working ourselves up into a lather in which we exaggerate the threat and stop asking ourselves whether the cure may be worse than the disease.    

 

Q    At a time like this as you acknowledge , citizens do look to the state for protection, for assistance, we shouldn't be surprised then if the state takes on new powers, that is what it has been asked to do, almost demanded of it.    

A    Yes that is absolutely true. We should not be surprised. But we have to recognise that this is how societies become despotisms. And we also have to recognise this is a process which leads naturally to exaggeration. The symptoms of coronavirus are clearly serious for those with other significant medical conditions especially if they're old. There are exceptional cases in which young people have been struck down, which have had a lot of publicity, but the numbers are pretty small.  The Italian evidence for instance suggests that only 12% of deaths is it possible to say coronavirus was the main cause of death. So yes this is serious and yes it's understandable that people cry out to the government. But the real question is: Is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up , saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all. 

What I say to them is I am not a scientist but it is the right and duty of every citizen to look and see what the scientists have said and to analyse it for themselves and to draw common sense conclusions. We are all perfectly capable of doing that and there's no particular reason why the scientific nature of the problem should mean we have to resign our liberty into the hands of scientists. We all have critical faculties and it's rather important, in a moment of national panic, that we should maintain them.   

Very interesting and on the ball. The panic merchants and keyboard scientists are out in force. I for one don't fancy 1984 and the all seeing panoptican taking over. 

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, JMD said:

Most of my portfolio is in stocks (which is a BIG learning curve for me!), but I still want 20% in country etf's/themed funds, once/if the markets hit their bottom, as want exposure to overseas value stocks in EM's and think this is best practical way to achieve it.

Agreed, plus other internationals.  Most people in the West don't see how large chunks of the world are pulling away.  CV has shown this up.  I achieve this by a mix of regional ETFs and individual international stocks.  I'm still thinking about consolidating these ETFs into one worldwide ETF which has a reasonable geographic spread but I'm not sure about the US share portion atm!  I have a US ETF on my watchlist but it is untouched given valuations.  I've stuck with EMs, APD, and Japan in varying degrees.

[JMD]

46 minutes ago, Harley said:

Madness?  Just pay a temporary universal basic income (or an insurance payout to be more accurate) to those with an NI number, etc.  They mostly have all the data and systems (e.g. the ones they use for tax refunds, salary payments, etc).  And far fairer.  They've been amassing the data, etc for quite a while now, although that was intended to net more, not negative, tax!  Hell, why not start paying people according to their NI record (i.e. what they've put in) again!  Those without an NI number were obviously not working anyway so would not get paid anyway!!!

Sorry Harley, but what would be 'temporary' about it? Actually, with 1m more claimants going onto 'universal' 'credit' (there's the 'U' word again, but 'credit' is surely so last cycle!), I am agreeing with you of course - im  just despairing of the lack of political leadership. For example I want a recognition that jobs in future will be scarce, so why not plan now for a part-time training/part-time work society. Why suffer mass unemployment for large sections of society? ...Rhetorical questions I know.   

[Harley]

OK you oil and gas gurus, what am I missing?

A lot of bunching in the industry.  Pretty much the same OCF metrics but quite a difference, where you may not expect it, on the other metrics.

Meanwhile, over in the service and distribution industry:

 

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sorry Harley, but what would be 'temporary' about it? Actually, with 1m more claimants going onto 'universal' 'credit' (there's the 'U' word again, but 'credit' is surely so last cycle!), I am agreeing with you of course - im  just despairing of the lack of political leadership. For example I want a recognition that jobs in future will be scarce, so why not plan now for a part-time training/part-time work society. Why suffer mass unemployment for large sections of society? ...Rhetorical questions I know.   

I'm coming round to a UBI (some remaining Calvinist tendencies!) as it just seems more honest than all the other options, short of being able to produce real jobs for all!

[PaulParanoia]

5 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I so wish that's where all my purchases had been!!!

Be interested to see if it's the same for PaulParanoia...

The Shell I currently hold were bought at 10.44.  If I bought the same amount again, even at 15 quid, I'd still average under 13.  Which may well be a good result.  

Just seen Saudi Arabia calling for an emergency meeting, causing an end of day spike to 15.42 before dropping back to 14.79.  Potential for oil prices to take off tomorrow if they get their act together quickly.

[Popuplights]

5 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I so wish that's where all my purchases had been!!!

Be interested to see if it's the same for PaulParanoia...

My rdsb holding is averaging out at break even right now, so happy with that

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

My rdsb holding is averaging out at break even right now, so happy with that

Divis too!

Hope everyone read that oil article posted recently. You are getting paid to absorb volatility

[BadAlchemy]

5 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

If ya's don't know how to make flat bread - here's a video:

 

 

YRS, thankyou that's really useful to me at the moment. Always make my own bread and have stockpiled a fair bit of flour (which might be why no other bugger can find any in the shops... sorry about that) but I am running low on yeast which I can't see in the shops AND the element in my oven just burned out.  So while I wait for a new element to arrive I will give these a go.... right now in fact as I have all the RDSB shares I need and don't need to buy any more. (See how I brought this back on topic at the end there  )

[Popuplights]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Divis too!

Hope everyone read that oil article posted recently. You are getting paid to absorb volatility

Yes. I work for Exxon, we are experiencing quite a bit of that....

[Errol]

Wish I got more Shell at my £9.78 price point now. However, it will presumably drop back again shortly.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

I am running low on yeast which I can't see in the shops

You need to make a sourdough starter.

[TNS]

38 minutes ago, Errol said:

Wish I got more Shell at my £9.78 price point now. However, it will presumably drop back again shortly.

If that happens i'm going balls deep! 

[reformed nice guy]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

I'm coming round to a UBI (some remaining Calvinist tendencies!) as it just seems more honest than all the other options, short of being able to produce real jobs for all!

I think it would be fair but I doubt it will happen due to human nature.

If its to be universal, then they will say "but what about [single mothers, disabled, left handers, etc] that need more per month?". Our sop politicians will give in, and the universal part is no longer universal. It returns to a means tested hand out which already exists (working tax credits etc)

[NogintheNog]

3 hours ago, PaulParanoia said:

The Shell I currently hold were bought at 10.44.  If I bought the same amount again, even at 15 quid, I'd still average under 13.  Which may well be a good result.  

Just seen Saudi Arabia calling for an emergency meeting, causing an end of day spike to 15.42 before dropping back to 14.79.  Potential for oil prices to take off tomorrow if they get their act together quickly.

That's a great place to be. Even if they cut the dividend in half at £15 you'd be doing very well.

I'm not envious

[M S E Refugee]

Thank you to Durham Born and everyone else on this thread for their brilliant ideas and insight.

I now feel like a Texas Oil Baron.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think it would be fair but I doubt it will happen due to human nature.

If its to be universal, then they will say "but what about [single mothers, disabled, left handers, etc] that need more per month?". Our sop politicians will give in, and the universal part is no longer universal. It returns to a means tested hand out which already exists (working tax credits etc)

Can't we give capitalism a try?

[Lavalas]

I’ve only ever owned UK stocks and North American miners.

What’s the crack with dividends for foreign stocks? Do we get them on K+S, for example? 

Stupid question I know but only just diversifying.

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

I’ve only ever owned UK stocks and North American miners.

What’s the crack with dividends for foreign stocks? Do we get them on K+S, for example? 

Stupid question I know but only just diversifying.

Yes you get them on foreign stocks,but lots of different tax rules.US stocks in a SIPP you get the full divi,outside you pay 15% tax.Some Europe stocks you pay dividend tax etc.Repsol for instance youd pay a decent divident tax,but Repsol give you extra shares instead,if you choose to take them,you can then sell them and pay no tax (just dealing fee),or of course let the holding compound.