Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Jesus Wept]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dont laugh folks.....

 

Centrica PLC

LON: CNA

Follow

 

36.22 GBX +2.54 (7.54%)

What are the fundamentals like? I take it a few people on here got burnt by CNA? ☹️

Time to invest? Has it hit the bottom? 
 

What I mean is ‘if you had never bought in before’ would you purchase now? 
 

[sancho panza]

30 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I feel there could be some play on words, like maybe changing "pump & dump" to "pump & buy", or something...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-take-big-stakes-european-oil-companies-11586382353

Very interesting B&M.thanks for psoting.I was saying to my dear old MUm the other day -as I put her into some mroe repsol-that they're a tempting target.Nivce to see it confirmed.

Would be interesting to hear if @Cattle Prod thinks we'll see the saudi's move on Euro oilies while they have some cash?

25 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Apologies as I have not read all 350+ pages (plus Pt. 1&2!) - if this discussed before.

Has anyone had any success or opinion on leveraged shares (x2 and x3) - are they only meant for day traders, and are they ‘adjusted’ so if held for any longer the holder gets ‘screwed over’ ??

I am a ‘long term holder’ and ‘dividend’ investor - however buying 3LLL LLoyds x3 would have been my preferred route and I would have planned to hold ‘long term’. (I did not buy as wary). 

They have risen +30% in last 3 days. See below.

I have also added a list of other leveraged shares. 

 

Of course I am fully aware that if they rise it is X3 BUT ALSO IF THEY FALL it is x3 and I am happy with that - but I think if you hold for a few days you get ‘killed’ by so callled ‘adjustments’ and charges etc....

There's a tracking issue ie they don't perfom as you might expect.I'm also unsure how they would cope with a volatile market as they use options(I believe) and given spreads can widen sharply in wild markets,when you really need them,they may not be there. @Harley is probably the person to get some advice from

42 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Amerman has done a good piece The Secret History Of A 70% Market Loss .

The chart doesn't really sell trackers does it and definitely leans towards the importance of individual stock selection? Obviously the ones that do better during inflation and outperform the market as a whole!

 

 

 

I clicked on the link DM and it went to DB's piece.Reread more the energy guy last night.Gets better with second reading.back later.

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/Dow36A.html

10 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

What are the fundamentals like? I take it a few people on here got burnt by CNA? ☹️

Time to invest? Has it hit the bottom? 

Don't start sayin the nam,e............hypertension will increase the covid risk

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

What are the fundamentals like? I take it a few people on here got burnt by CNA? ☹️

Time to invest? Has it hit the bottom? 
 

What I mean is ‘if you had never bought in before’ would you purchase now? 
 

I think we've all been burnt :-)

I'm happy to hold it because it's hedge against inflation at any price.  

However, I've been thinking it's the bottom for about 3 years now.

 

[sancho panza]

@DurhamBorn you mentioned yesterday teh importance of this cycle ending against the background of disinflation whereas GD1 occurred after period of inflation.

As i said,ia hadnt thought of it much but it is a relaeanvt poitn.

is the main issue that disinlfation aloows printing policy response?or is it more subtle?

[Long-game]

25 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dont laugh folks.....

 

Centrica PLC

LON: CNA

Follow

 

36.22 GBX +2.54 (7.54%)

Pishi Bawsac is a disaster area.

Pishi bawsac😂😂 

 

Bought quite a bit of bp shares over the piece, thanks to this thread, Vodafone next up, thanks to DB and others, this thread has kept the spirits up 👍💯

[Ellandback]

10 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

In the recent sell off I took a short term gamble/trading position with gdxj. I am hoping wishing and praying this runs and there is a second sell off later this year but not before my sell target is hit. The proceeds from this I will add to the above miners.

I'm down 20% on my PM miner allocation, I bought last autumn planning to hold for a 100% gain then exit and await the deflationary bust - serves me right for being cocky! I get the impression that most of FinTwit expects another run up in PM stocks to start soon (@henrikzeberg is a notable PM bear for the short term but is widely ridiculed for his views) so maybe all is not lost. I'm aiming to increase my exposure soon but as a novice I'm a little hesitant as it's been brutal this year and I can't discount the possibly they just drift lower along with the general market.

[Castlevania]

38 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Apologies as I have not read all 350+ pages (plus Pt. 1&2!) - if this discussed before.

Has anyone had any success or opinion on leveraged shares (x2 and x3) - are they only meant for day traders, and are they ‘adjusted’ so if held for any longer the holder gets ‘screwed over’ ??

I am a ‘long term holder’ and ‘dividend’ investor - however buying 3LLL LLoyds x3 would have been my preferred route and I would have planned to hold ‘long term’. (I did not buy as wary). 

They have risen +30% in last 3 days. See below.

I have also added a list of other leveraged shares. 

Of course I am fully aware that if they rise it is X3 BUT ALSO IF THEY FALL it is x3 and I am happy with that - but I think if you hold for a few days you get ‘killed’ by so callled ‘adjustments’ and charges etc....

They rebalance every day. Essentially if a stock doubled one day and halved the next you’d lose money. There was a good article posted by someone on here about the 3x leveraged GDXJ and how people liquidating was driving the GDXJ much lower a few weeks ago, which explained how such leveraged ETF’s work. I’ll see if I can find it.

 

30 minutes ago, CVG said:

I wanted to start looking for new value to invest in and was interested to see which stocks (UK £50M+) had fallen most in the last year. It's quite the rogue's gallery! Does anyone see any here that have been overcooked in the present climate?

# Ticker Name  Mkt Cap m GBP  Price vs 52w High %  Price vs 52w Low %  1 INTU Intu Properties                        65 -95                               54 2 AMGO Amigo Holdings                        75 -95                               51 3 TED Ted Baker                        62 -91                               55 4 TLW Tullow Oil                      342 -90                             238 5 MTRO Metro Bank                      156 -90                               31 6 BWNG N Brown                        54 -88                               90 7 SHI Sig                      119 -87                               15 8 DLAR De La Rue                        68 -86                               47 9 FCH Funding Circle Holdings                      192 -84                             151 10 ACSO Accesso Technology                        63 -83                             176 11 ASAI Asa International                        78 -83                               -   12 RSE Riverstone Energy                      139 -82                               61 13 CPI Capita                      551 -82                               66 14 RPS Rps                        82 -82                               21 15 LOOK Lookers                        74 -81                               79 16 MCRO Micro Focus International                   1,405 -81                               44 17 AA. Aa                      102 -81                               24 18 HYVE Hyve                      177 -80                               45 19 CINE Cineworld                      832 -80                             231 20 HUR Hurricane Energy                      262 -80                               84 21 AML Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings                   1,114 -79                             108 22 CCL Carnival                   6,050 -79                               52 23 KIE Kier                      136 -78                               44 24 BUR Burford Capital                      892 -78                               63 25 HMSO Hammerson                      595 -78                               45 26 CARD Card Factory                      155 -78                             106 27 MNZS John Menzies                        96 -77                               70 28 HSW Hostelworld                        56 -77                               63 29 TILS Tiziana Life Sciences                        57 -77                               60 30 PHAR Pharos Energy                        73 -76                               85 31 PMO Premier Oil                      243 -76                             189 32 IPF International Personal Finance                      111 -76                               -   33 SENS Sensyne Health                        57 -76                               26 34 PURP Purplebricks                      115 -75                               69 35 SDRY Superdry                      111 -75                             125 36 NRR Newriver Reit                      190 -75                               26 37 SCPA Scapa                      163 -74                               16 38 SAGA Saga                      181 -74                               29 39 PDG Pendragon                      101 -73                               80 40 SYME Abal                        98 -73                               20 41 ELM Elementis                      299 -72                             185 42 JOUL Joules                        89 -72                             150 43 OKEY O'key Sa                      129 -71                               19 44 SNR Senior                      289 -71                               53 45 CRS Crystal Amber Fund                        61 -71                               30 46 GKP Gulf Keystone Petroleum                      161 -71                               62 47 SQN Sqn Asset Finance Income Fund                      139 -70                               76 48 ATMA Atlas Mara                        73 -70                                 6 49 CNA Centrica                   1,961 -70                               11 50 CAL Capital & Regional                        96 -70                               39

 Hostelworld is Air BnB for hostels, just with a more realistic valuation. I bought some the other week because I figured if this bat flu lasted a year, they could cut their ad spend to nothing and then they’d have enough cash to pay all their overheads and staff costs.

To be honest most of those are coin tosses. A fair few will go bust or your equity will be heavily watered down to near nothing. A few will make you a lot of money. How brave or foolish are you?

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

While I agree that a good quality 3 bed house in Durham will be shielded from the worst of the coming property bear, due to high affordability based against the local economy, there are still a lot of variables that support the North / South variance. London for now is still a global city and has a broad depth of professional clusters which are hard to replicate. While London’s recent boom is service led it still has a broad industrial base and is a key global logistics hub.

After university I swore blind I would never live and work in London, but after acknowledging it’s competitive advantage and the clear political bias decided to not fight against the market. In recent years I have alway recommended graduates to move North as the quality of life due to house prices is an easy decision. 20 years ago though the opportunities were huge. 

I can certainly see a nominal drop of 30% and would actually welcome it for the societal benefits, however 70% inflation adjusted would require double digit inflation and a global depression. Saying that you nailed oil, gold and several other indicators, so time will tell. 

There has already been a 20% drop in Central London house prices since 2014, but this was widely ignored by the mainstream media, as it mainly effected HNW individuals and internal buyers. 

This week I have been surprised at the amount of development activity and funding for large projects is holding up well considering the circumstances. The real challenges will become apparent in the next 6-12 months when a clearer view of the economic damage can be clearly assessed. 

The government are currently working on various residential infrastructure packages to ensure that development volumes don’t collapse. Any scheme seeking support will be done based on the government receiving a return on capital plus restrictions and profit shares on the developer. 

My team amazingly complete 2 land transaction on 9th March totalling £11.2m, much to my surprise. When I quizzed the purchasers they didn’t want to lose their deposits and the purchasers want to place money into assets rather than the bank even with the very real price risk. 
 

 

 

 

 

Disagree. There is not a wide industrial base in London. The area is basically public sector, benefits or finsec.

The issue with London house prices is the multiples are huge. Median London wage is only a few k more than the English Median wage.

The economic activity in London has mainly been low paid, in-work benefits support lunacy.

The London finsec has already shed a few 100k of jobs., This will accelerate.

London house prices could barely survive a mild slowdown.

[Democorruptcy]

27 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I clicked on the link DM and it went to DB's piece.Reread more the energy guy last night.Gets better with second reading.back later.

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/Dow36A.html

 

Sorry, don't know how I managed to do that.

This is the proper link.

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/G4SecBear.html

[Democorruptcy]

49th place?

I felt strangely disappointed for them, as if all their efforts had been in vain.

[CVG]

18 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

How brave or foolish are you?

I used to gamble and then quit around age 25. I advised my kids never to gamble unless they knew they would win. I'm brave and foolish in equal measure! Fancy having a small punt on the oilies there and Carnival for the sheer hell of it.

[sleepwello'nights]

43 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

What are the fundamentals like? I take it a few people on here got burnt by CNA? ☹️

Time to invest? Has it hit the bottom? 
 

 

I've had some CNA since privatisation in its various iterations. I also added when the price dropped to 64p. They're now showing a loss! Maybe not the entire holding as I've not bothered to go through the full financial implications of how my initial investment has performed through the divestments, and other changes during the duration of my holding.

From what I read the issue is the potential cost of decommissioning the nuclear power plants. I cant see how any government could back down from giving financial aid. In the event that the cost exhausted Centrica's resources then the government would have to bear the cost in any case.  Would it wipe out the shareholders? I guess there would be areas spun off to shelter some of the consequences in that event.

When looking at energy suppliers last year they were the cheapest business energy supplier. So they can fight back against the new breed of energy billing companies. 

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

@DurhamBorn you mentioned yesterday teh importance of this cycle ending against the background of disinflation whereas GD1 occurred after period of inflation.

As i said,ia hadnt thought of it much but it is a relaeanvt poitn.

is the main issue that disinlfation aloows printing policy response?or is it more subtle?

There are a few things that go on around debt deflation etc and lags.My friend used to say this is where most/nearly all economists and other market players get it wrong.He said the inflation has already been consumed and the dis-inflation has taken care of it.Its already gone.However a lot of debt has built up on inflation already consumed.Those assets are sat there,ready to produce.In affect the CBs have an open door to print ALL of the dis-inflation over the cycle,because the assets are there to consume the printing.Of course the fuzzy bit is the CBs dont know how much debt is bad,going bad,or in this present situation how much of the asset base will spring back,how much is gone forever.They usually push everything through the capital markets first,but at the end of a cycle they use direct to government as well,they know a fiscal punch is needed.

So all the dis-inflation since 1982 is available to be printed,in theory.Iv road mapped this,and i come up with a figure of 50% of the disinflation and that says $18 trillion balance sheet for the Fed and another $10 trillion to be printed,BOE (who say no printing ) probably $1 trillion.

Of course if they printed nothing,the assets would go back to being worth what they were in 1982 (and overshoot on the downside).The reason the CBs wont let that happen is because its their job not to.The financial dislocation would be on a scale never seen,and society would collapse.Its a bit like having a fire brigade who dont respond to a huge fire.

At the end of a reflation though things change.The inflation has built up in the system,instead of being consumed,it has added onto costs.If the CBs print then you get hyper inflation.They are at the exact opposite of where they are now.So governments cant turn to them,they have to actually live within their means.In simple terms during and at the end of a deflation/disinflation governments cant run out of money.At the end of a reflation/inflation,they do run out.

Given to get back to growth we need to print all of the dis-inflation,it then means the situation comes up where rates end up where they were then as well,however adjusted down for a much more efficient modern economy.

So why buy inflation stocks like oil,potash etc?.Because the market priced them back towards those early 80s prices (they didnt get right back,but well over halfway),rational,but ignoring the CBs would put all that dis-inflation back into the markets.

Today,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52226482

The government says whatever sum is borrowed will be repaid by the end of the year, and this is not a form of so-called "money printing".

But this is also the mechanism suggested by former top Treasury officials through which the Bank could more formally directly buy government debt from the Treasury, rather than buying it on the open market.

That has not been announced today, but is a possible consequence of the expansion of Quantitative Easing by the Bank of England announced last week.

Today's development is a sign of the unusual moves required to account for significant economic policy challenges around the pandemic, and a sign of things to come.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Has anyone had any success or opinion on leveraged shares (x2 and x3) - are they only meant for day traders, and are they ‘adjusted’ so if held for any longer the holder gets ‘screwed over’ ??

I've used SUK2.  Been great recently but usually like trying to balance on a ball.  Hard to time well enough.  Looked at it as a hedge for my income portfolio but it decays too much over time, plus it will never hedge enough unless I put a lot of money down.  I'd use options or warrants instead.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Today's development is a sign of the unusual moves required to account for significant economic policy challenges around the pandemic, and a sign of things to come.

A sign of what things to come ?

More repayments of QE or just all out zimbabwe money destruction ?

 I read a tweet yesterday that make me think....This whole thing is a pipeline.  The inflation is being pushed into one end of the pipeline but it's still squirting out deflation at the other end.

You just need to work out when the inflation is ready to pop out the pipeline and how short the pipe is.

 

Is anyone else getting very nervous about all this money printing ?

Err, I mean, QE, BoE Loans.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

A sign of what things to come ?

More repayments of QE or just all out zimbabwe money destruction ?

 I read a tweet yesterday that make me think....This whole thing is a pipeline.  The inflation is being pushed into one end of the pipeline but it's still squirting out deflation at the other end.

You just need to work out when the inflation is ready to pop out the pipeline and how short the pipe is.

 

Is anyone else getting very nervous about all this money printing ?

Err, I mean, QE, BoE Loans.

See my post above Count.The risk isnt printing right now,its not printing.There is nearly 40 years of dis-inflation they need to catch up,the inflation is coming,but its not a threat or risk at all at the moment.The opposite.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

One thing people might not have factored in is how quickly bad news and sentiment move now due to social media etc.

When people cotton on to this sort of thing

https://www.ft.com/content/664c575b-0f54-44e5-ab78-2fd30ef213cb

And they panic about money, the £ will collapse very very very quickly

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

See my post above Count.The risk isnt printing right now,its not printing.There is nearly 40 years of dis-inflation they need to catch up,the inflation is coming,but its not a threat or risk at all at the moment.The opposite.

It depends what you see as the problem.

I know your theory and I broadly agree with it, but these are not normal circumstances. 

I doubt very much the bankers motives for doing what they are doing, this has bugger all to do with CV, this is a power/money grab.

Im still not convinced we are not about to see massive inflation.  I wouldn't be buying shares right now if I thought otherwise.

The US could turn into a basket case quickly and sentiment can change quickly

I'll be more than happy when you are proved right but I am very very nervous about the whole thing.

 

[Jesus Wept]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

See my post above Count.The risk isnt printing right now,its not printing.There is nearly 40 years of dis-inflation they need to catch up,the inflation is coming,but its not a threat or risk at all at the moment.The opposite.

I haven’t felt the way I’m feeling right now since the turn of 2000.

I am just much better placed to ‘take advantage’ now in terms of investing in stocks and commodities etc. 

My gut (and DB! 😁) is telling me there is a massive inflationary mechanism coming. I think that is right. 

Mind I called it wrong in 2009 (after 2 years STR) when I bought the final family home and took out a 10 year fixed mortgage at 4.75% - worst financial decision I ever made. (House purchase was a good move though).

I really thought inflation and high IRs were the only outcome. How could I have been so wrong? 

So what to invest in April 2020 onwards? 

Oil?

Oil stocks?

Commodity ETFs ? 

Gold? 

Index ETFs? 

Emerging markets? 

I’m going to devote a few hours to reading all the previous pages. Already some great replies and insight from people here. Many thanks.
 

Finally I think there will be one more massive down leg shock in the stock indices to shake out a few ‘weak bulls’....

The final BULL TRAP cometh? Will we see DOW sub 20000 and Ftse sub 5000 again? 
 

You may see RDSB sub £10 one more time? 
 

Anyone Remember 2000??? 
 

It took 3 years and 4-5 Bull traps on the way down to finally hit the very bottom - nearly an 80% fall from top to bottom! 

 

[DurhamBorn]

There is a very real risk of lower lows,usually happens when the printing slows down or stops.However it shouldnt matter to people who laddered.Iv taken a bit of money off the table,some bottom ladders had more then doubled (Go Ahead and National Express for instance).Im full up myself on the oilies,but have room in other areas like telcos.

It needs to be remembered as well the UK market had already being in a big bear for a few years before the big falls and many areas were already at decade lows.

[Jesus Wept]

I have just bought a chunk of PAY (Paypoint PLC). Ftse250.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Disagree. There is not a wide industrial base in London. The area is basically public sector, benefits or finsec.

The issue with London house prices is the multiples are huge. Median London wage is only a few k more than the English Median wage.

The economic activity in London has mainly been low paid, in-work benefits support lunacy.

The London finsec has already shed a few 100k of jobs., This will accelerate.

London house prices could barely survive a mild slowdown.

For me the bit in bold is the main point, people view the lofty salaries of the banking and management consultancies and see London as paved with gold when the reality is very different for the vast majority 

[CVG]

I was working thru the second page of my list of "the fallen" and found Glencore. Given that I already hold RIO and BHP I thought about a bit of diversification. On research I came across this article from a few days ago which serves as a good balance sheet / debt warning in this sector:

By Zandi Shabalala
LONDON, April 7 - The cost of insuring against
potential debt default by mining companies has risen to the
highest in five years on mounting fears of recession, demand
destruction and shutdowns to contain the spread of the
coronavirus.
Commodity group Glencore's GLEN.L five-year credit default
swaps (CDS) - which traders use as a hedge against uncertainty -
were up at 443 basis points on Tuesday from 190 bps at the end
of February, data from information provider IHS Markit showed.
Those of Anglo American AAL.L rose to 274 bps from 137 bps
over the same period as the virus disrupts businesses and global
supply chains, while demand slumps.
Both were above Markit's main index of investment grade
corporate CDS, which was at around 100 bps from 64.50 at the end
of February.
Glencore's relatively higher debt has driven the jump in its
debt insurance costs, analysts said, while Anglo's climbed on
its exposure to South Africa and the struggling diamond sector.
Rio Tinto RIO.L and BHP BHP.AX , whose CDS have risen
more modestly, have a relatively conservative balance sheet and
the mix of commodities they own made them less vulnerable, they
said.
All four miners declined to comment.


Overall since the 2015-16 commodity market slump, miners
have slashed debt, cut costs and shied away from mergers and
acquisitions to strengthen financial positions.
But stalled growth and demand as well as tumbling commodity
prices are threatening that progress for some in the industry.
"If we saw a further pullback in commodity prices then
Glencore's net debt to EBITDA would begin to work back towards
that uncomfortable level we saw in 2015/16," said BMO Capital
Markets analyst Edward Sterck, referring to a major commodities
slump.
He added that he did not have any concerns about the
financial security of the miners but that the coronavirus had
raised risk in the market.
In 2015, Glencore's net debt to EBITDA ratio was at 2.98
times and at the end of 2019 sat at 1.5 times.


At Anglo, a nationwide 21-day lockdown in South Africa,
which accounts for 48% of its EBITDA, and a tough environment in
the diamond market have reduced its attractiveness, BMO's Sterck
said. The miner issued a $1.5 billion bond in March.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs upgraded BHP to "buy" from
"neutral" on Friday, citing a strong balance sheet that could
enable them to buy back stock and assets.


The four miners have cut net debt from a combined $79
billion in 2015 to $39 billion at the end of 2019, and rising
profits have seen them return record dividends and embark on
share buybacks.


"The lesson the mining industry, and Glencore in particular,
learned pretty clearly in 2015 was that the balance sheet has
basically become sacred," said Chris LaFemina, chief equities
analyst at Jefferies.
Glencore in March deferred payment of its 2020 dividend in a
move to cushion itself against what could be a worsening global
economy. Its debt stood at $17.6 billion in 2019 from $26
billion in 2015. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2BO48F
Capital expenditure will come under scrutiny in the current
climate but there have been few significant delays to major
projects.
"We are in uncharted territory so if you are one of the
majors you will immediately go into cash preservation mode for
the foreseeable future," a mining banker said.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Corona vs miners CDS graphic IMAGE https://reut.rs/2UR3ZTm
Major miners' debt 2015 vs 2019 IMAGE https://reut.rs/2VjVDTl
Major diversified miners vs copper price IMAGE https://reut.rs/34dyo14
Major miners slash debt 2015 vs 2019 png https://reut.rs/2UNdsLu
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by Zandi Shabalala; Editing by Emelia
Sithole-Matarise)
(([email protected]; +44 207 542 5937;))

[Harley]

55 minutes ago, CVG said:

I was working thru the second page of my list of "the fallen" and found Glencore. Given that I already hold RIO and BHP I thought about a bit of diversification. On research I came across this article from a few days ago which serves as a good balance sheet / debt warning in this sector:

......

I do wish people would stop talking about my portfolio!  It's painful enough ta!

[reformed nice guy]

US jobless claims at 6.6 million, higher than the 5.2m forecast.

Hopefully more bargains to be had soon!

[Majorpain]

5 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

US jobless claims at 6.6 million, higher than the 5.2m forecast.

Hopefully more bargains to be had soon!

That sounds bad, but the long term chart is something else:

Unprecedented would be the right word.