Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Talking Monkey]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

Finally finished listening to my weekly podcasts and yet another sage saying deflation followed by inflation.  Said everything will go down first so few/no hiding places.  Especially bonds and equity together.  That the old rule of them being inversely related is largely gone in an inflated-everywhere market.  And most pension funds have pushed the risk curve for yield into junk bonds and a high equity to bond mix.   That this is going to be a really hard time to manage and that passive investing won't work.  But also said being right is not enough - timing (watching the indicators) is key.

PS:  Also mentioned universal income, something probably necessary in the coming inflationary period.  I mentioned way back about the supermarkets in Tahiti and the rest of French Polynesia, and it's coming here soon.

Hi Harley would you mind doing a quick recap on the supermarkets thing you mentioned above

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Hi Harley would you mind doing a quick recap on the supermarkets thing you mentioned abov

 

"If you stay in a Rental property and shop local look for items with Red price tags. The FP gov't controls the prices on basics. We always used the following. Groceries 1/3 more than the US as a rule of thumb".

[M.C. UK]

17 hours ago, Harley said:

Finally finished listening to my weekly podcasts ...

Harley,

I believe you did list then in the past, but just out of curiosity, which podcasts are you listening nowadays? 

[Majorpain]

Surprised no-one has mentioned the German Manufacturing PMI print, Germany (and by extension the EU) is going down hard.

Ironic if Brexit was sorted by the EU no longer existing, which was always a distinct possibility!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, M.C. UK said:

Harley,

I believe you did list then in the past, but just out of curiosity, which podcasts are you listening nowadays? 

The list has grown, but not all financial.

Puplava Financial Sense (the free one)

Goldseek Radio (a bit hit and miss)

Max Keiser (always do as SHTF)

AJ Bell (bit quiet lately)

Moneyweek (terrible sound)

Then:

Spectator

The Thought Police

Then Youtube for Real Vision, etc plus whatever this site throws up.

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Margin debt and recent market peaks:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/09/23/margin-debt-and-the-market-down-6-2-in-august

Those of a nervous disposition should look away now....

This one is scary. Last 2 recessions hit when margin debt started to go higher than the S&P 500. It's miles below now!

 

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Those of a nervous disposition should look away now....

This one is scary. Last 2 recessions hit when margin debt started to go higher than the S&P 500. It's miles below now!

Thanks, interesting and yes, has been a good indicator in the past.  I note the margin line is inverted versus the S&P line.  Looks to me like when the margin line crosses the S&P line from above, the S&P line follows after a lag and when the margin line then turns upwards that marks the mid point in the stall in the S&P line before that line goes south (as the margin line continues north with the peak in the margin line signalling the low in the S&P line).  But not this time!  However, if the correlation holds true but QE, etc has just distorted things, then I note a shoulder just over a third of the way up the ascending margin line from its low which is where the S&P line changes direction (a kind of slack water turning point) in which case we have the mother of all (broadening wedge pattern) shoulders this time and we could see the start of a "typical" cross forming with enough power to actually result in a cross even from the current massive divergence between the two lines.  As an aside, there are triangular chart patterns everywhere at the moment.  It's been quite a while since we have seen these.  They signal significant reversal or continuation patterns so one way or another, things may get very interesting. 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Surprised no-one has mentioned the German Manufacturing PMI print, Germany (and by extension the EU) is going down hard.

Ironic if Brexit was sorted by the EU no longer existing, which was always a distinct possibility!

China going down the shitter.

Chinese econmic nubmers go thru the CCP whitewash machine.

The German numbers dont.

Europe was fucked over by both Germany doing labour job reforms and CHinese economy growing like nuts i nthe early 00s.

Now Germany has t live without the CHina boost.

Sadly, its Im considerably more productive than yow has reamed demand in Europe.

 

 

[Harley]

34 minutes ago, spygirl said:

.....Europe was fucked over by both Germany doing labour job reforms......

100%.  I lived in Germany through it so saw the before and after.  Never thought they would do it but to their credit they did.  Quite a change - short term pain for long term gain.  Of course setting up exchange rates and the rest of the EU in your favour also helps!

PS: I wonder how much of German manufacturing is largely China based, as in other countries.  Most of the German stuff I buy is designed, etc in Germany but a high proportion of the base manufacturing seems to be undertaken in China.

[Barnsey]

Since we're in a cheery mood this rainy morning...

 

[Dogtania]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

The list has grown, but not all financial.

Puplava Financial Sense (the free one)

Goldseek Radio (a bit hit and miss)

Max Keiser (always do as SHTF)

AJ Bell (bit quiet lately)

Moneyweek (terrible sound)

Then:

Spectator

The Thought Police

Then Youtube for Real Vision, etc plus whatever this site throws up.

Just a random one I started listening too recently is the wall Street journal - think it's called the journal-. Anyway it's more easy listening, entertaining but is produced in conjunction with gimlet media so really high quality sound etc.  The two recent ones I listened to were about we work and where Jeffrey Epstein made is money

[DoINeedOne]

Im finding all this news about banning vaping interesting

So Walmart are apparently going to stop selling e-cigs but still sell cigarettes 

There are new developments in the war on vaping, with California Governor Gavin Newsom becoming the third state to issue an executive order to "reduce youth vaping consumption." While an outright ban on flavoured products fell short during a legislative session, state regulators may find ways to ban illegal and counterfeit vaping products. (California Is apparently the 9th highest tax on cigarettes shown in the map below) so what about NewYork seeing as they have the highest tax on cigarettes 

New York became the first state to ban the sale of flavoured e-cigarettes Tuesday, a move that comes as federal health officials investigate a mysterious surge of severe breathing illnesses linked to vaping.

 

The White House recently announced plans to ban flavoured e-cigarettes except for tobacco flavoured products  because of a rise in the number of middle and high school students using these products.

India’s cabinet is banning the production, import and sale of e-cigarettes.

 

Seems like everyones panicking but looks like vaping is being banned in some countries where smoking cigarettes will continue and other countries are banning flavoured vaping products which is what most these smaller companies sell

But the big tobacco companies can control both legal simpler vaping products and cigarettes 

 

Anyway back to work....

 

India soon to be banned

 

[Noallegiance]

It's to look after us, I tells ya!

The best choice is no freedom of choice! 

Seen a beautiful BBC article today about how fat people don't choose to be fat. 

The messages reinforcing our lack of responsibility and ability to 'do it ourselves' are really strong right now.

[dgul]

38 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Im finding all this news about banning vaping interesting

So Walmart are apparently going to stop selling e-cigs but still sell cigarettes 

...

 

Seems like everyones panicking but looks like vaping is being banned in some countries where smoking cigarettes will continue and other countries are banning flavoured vaping products which is what most these smaller companies sell

But the big tobacco companies can control both legal simpler vaping products and cigarettes 

...

IMO we'll have a new set of tested and authorised vaping products come along soon, that'll be clinically proven to not bugger up lungs.  Everything else will be banned, because they'll most certainly kill you or something.  And the only ones selling the authorised products will be BAT and Imperial.  

Oh, and they'll be taxed.

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, dgul said:

IMO we'll have a new set of tested and authorised vaping products come along soon, that'll be clinically proven to not bugger up lungs.  Everything else will be banned, because they'll most certainly kill you or something.  And the only ones selling the authorised products will be BAT and Imperial.  

Oh, and they'll be taxed.

 exactly.Vaping meant lots of small companies selling cheap products undercutting the big tobacco companies.Now what will happen is vaping will slow down for a bit,so less people stop smoking,then you will need drug company style regulations only big tobacco will be able to afford.Each product will probably need some kind of clinical trial.The idea anyone can sell vaping products will be stopped.Market has hit Imperial and BAT because as usual they dont understand road maps and leads and lags.The road map on this is clear like you say.I got BAT at £24.40,but will add a few more Imperial.

[janch]

Otavio (Tavi) Costa‏ @TaviCosta Sep 20

 

Otavio (Tavi) Costa Retweeted Otavio (Tavi) Costa

There you have it again. $NFLX is plunging today and confirming a breakdown from a 4-year support. First FANG member to falter. Probably more to come.

 

Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta

$NFLX is a must watch. Now diverging 25 pct pts from Nasdaq!…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, dgul said:

IMO we'll have a new set of tested and authorised vaping products come along soon, that'll be clinically proven to not bugger up lungs.  Everything else will be banned, because they'll most certainly kill you or something.  And the only ones selling the authorised products will be BAT and Imperial.  

Oh, and they'll be taxed.

Indeed.  I was reading about CBD oil for insomnia last night(!) and it occurred to me how vaping would be the best way to administer any deregulated pharma cannabis based products.  I'm now happily fully allocated on BATS and IMB.  Ok on BATS but down on IMB but not worried for the intermediate term, especially as I see a possible technical divergence which could resolve to the upside (or not!).

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Im finding all this news about banning vaping interesting

So Walmart are apparently going to stop selling e-cigs but still sell cigarettes 

There are new developments in the war on vaping, with California Governor Gavin Newsom becoming the third state to issue an executive order to "reduce youth vaping consumption." While an outright ban on flavoured products fell short during a legislative session, state regulators may find ways to ban illegal and counterfeit vaping products. (California Is apparently the 9th highest tax on cigarettes shown in the map below) so what about NewYork seeing as they have the highest tax on cigarettes 

New York became the first state to ban the sale of flavoured e-cigarettes Tuesday, a move that comes as federal health officials investigate a mysterious surge of severe breathing illnesses linked to vaping.

 

The White House recently announced plans to ban flavoured e-cigarettes except for tobacco flavoured products  because of a rise in the number of middle and high school students using these products.

India’s cabinet is banning the production, import and sale of e-cigarettes.

 

Seems like everyones panicking but looks like vaping is being banned in some countries where smoking cigarettes will continue and other countries are banning flavoured vaping products which is what most these smaller companies sell

But the big tobacco companies can control both legal simpler vaping products and cigarettes 

 

Anyway back to work....

 

India soon to be banned

 

India I can understand because they grow tobacco and it must be a money spinner for the government (a lot of Indians smoke) or they’re just being heavily lobbied by ITC (used to be Imperial Tobacco India) who seem to have no vaping products but a market cap far bigger than their former owners.

South America I’m a bit perplexed by.

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, dgul said:

IMO we'll have a new set of tested and authorised vaping products come along soon, that'll be clinically proven to not bugger up lungs.  Everything else will be banned, because they'll most certainly kill you or something.  And the only ones selling the authorised products will be BAT and Imperial.  

Oh, and they'll be taxed.

I remember chatting to a Kiwi fellow a few years back. Former smoker who’d turned to vaping before giving up for a bit and returning to smoking. 

Vaping he reckons almost killed him. The vape turned the tar in his lungs into sludge which peeled off and collected at the bottom of his lungs.

I’m not sure if a) what he told me makes any sense or b) it could actually happen, but he was convinced it was the vaping.

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 exactly.Vaping meant lots of small companies selling cheap products undercutting the big tobacco companies.Now what will happen is vaping will slow down for a bit,so less people stop smoking,then you will need drug company style regulations only big tobacco will be able to afford.Each product will probably need some kind of clinical trial.The idea anyone can sell vaping products will be stopped.Market has hit Imperial and BAT because as usual they dont understand road maps and leads and lags.The road map on this is clear like you say.I got BAT at £24.40,but will add a few more Imperial.

So the Vape shops on your high street that will mix you a liquid concoction will need to be regulated? So it’s the death of that, and if you do vape you’ll have to buy a Juul or a Blu or any one of the big tobacco patented devices?

[dgul]

11 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Can get Zopiclon online for £25, split the 7.5mg.

Or find a local hippy and get some indica dominant cannabis.

CBD oil does work, but the over-the-counter offerings are all really diluted.  

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

So the Vape shops on your high street that will mix you a liquid concoction will need to be regulated? So it’s the death of that, and if you do vape you’ll have to buy a Juul or a Blu or any one of the big tobacco patented devices?

They're on borrowed time anyway -- when you can get the basic vape stuff from the Poundshop I don't see how they're surviving anyway (I never see anyone in them, although it has been pointed out to me that the time to look is 'schools out' time]

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id take a guess City Bank.Endeavour Silver put on 10% today.

LOVELY jubberly!

DB, I always remember you saying in many posts that if silver goes mental Endeavour Silver could become a 100 bagger!

If it does will be a 1st for me, in which case i'll be buying ya MORE than fish&chips ...i'll be poping over to see ya with a few grates of me favorite beer hoegaarden! YES BIG splash out, as at the mo...only drinking cheap french tesco beer at £3.60 for ten bottles!

 

[Majorpain]

57 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

LOVELY jubberly!

DB, I always remember you saying in many posts that if silver goes mental Endeavour Silver could become a 100 bagger!

If it does will be a 1st for me, in which case i'll be buying ya MORE than fish&chips ...i'll be poping over to see ya with a few grates of me favorite beer hoegaarden! YES BIG splash out, as at the mo...only drinking cheap french tesco beer at £3.60 for ten bottles!

Just a quick note, it probably could 10 bag from here ($CAD 5 Bn) but 100 bagging ($CAD 50Bn) may be a little optimistic!  C 100m AU and 600k AG will only fundamentally get you so far, although it depends entirely on how destroyed currencies get against PM's of course.  

[Errol]

With silver at $200 an ounce plus and gold at $5000+ endeavour will soar.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I remember chatting to a Kiwi fellow a few years back. Former smoker who’d turned to vaping before giving up for a bit and returning to smoking. 

Vaping he reckons almost killed him. The vape turned the tar in his lungs into sludge which peeled off and collected at the bottom of his lungs.

I’m not sure if a) what he told me makes any sense or b) it could actually happen, but he was convinced it was the vaping.

So the Vape shops on your high street that will mix you a liquid concoction will need to be regulated? So it’s the death of that, and if you do vape you’ll have to buy a Juul or a Blu or any one of the big tobacco patented devices?

I dont think we will go down that road in the UK yet as vaping is pushed by the government.We might follow the US though later and regulate it more.Its interesting because big tobacco needs vaping,yet would be happy to see it regulated hard.It doesnt suit them at all that you can buy vape for £1 in poundland etc.They could do with that doing away with and only regulated ones on the market.

[Harley]

Looks like a good website for those investing in overseas stocks.  I'm linking to the page about foreign stocks held in ISAs and SIPPs as this is particularity important.  I'm currently checking (to my surprise) that there is zero US witholding tax on US dividends from US stocks held in a SIPP but there is (although reduced with a W-8BEN form) in an ISA, which is not recoverable.  Apparently such (again possibly reduced) withholding tax is recoverable for such stocks held in a normal trading account, providing you have a large enough UK income tax liability to set it against.  Talking individual stocks here, not ETFs, etc.

https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/holding-foreign-stocks-isa-sipp