Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Eventually Right]

Woah...

Silver now approaching $22.50, 12% up in 24hrs.

[Ellandback]

Gone vertical. My miners were +55% earlier this afternoon. Got to be an almighty rug-pull soon.... Or perhaps not.

[wherebee]

54 minutes ago, Ellandback said:

Gone vertical. My miners were +55% earlier this afternoon. Got to be an almighty rug-pull soon.... Or perhaps not.

yeah.  at what point do you take profits?  one of my holdings is up 23% in one day...

 

[leonardratso]

i would leave it until its -80%, thats minus 80%. That way you can be sure youve definately waited long enough and squeezed as much out of it as you can.

[wherebee]

21 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i would leave it until its -80%, thats minus 80%. That way you can be sure youve definately waited long enough and squeezed as much out of it as you can.

sound advice.  I'll follow that to the letter.

[Harley]

Regulation, regulation,  regulation or control, control, control.....

Treasury to bring cryptoassets under FCA regime

 

[Lightscribe]

51 minutes ago, Harley said:

Regulation, regulation,  regulation or control, control, control.....

Treasury to bring cryptoassets under FCA regime

 

Not that I would endorse such action, but convert to XMR (Monero) and move onto a hardware wallet. It’s exchanges such as Coinbase that will notify on cashing out etc, other than that, it’s very difficult to have the resources/ability to track anonymous conversions (unless of course the nodes have been taken over and controlled)

[kibuc]

11 hours ago, harp said:

I'm gutted! Just sold Wesdome Gold since buying when they were at 2.2 CAD now 14.25. It was by FAR the biggest holding thanks to kibuc mentioning them long ago. They appealed not because of my own research, but because I knew a guy at school years ago called Wes. He had the biggest fucking head it was like a dome, hence his nickname, wesdome. I kid you not. He is a multi-millionaire now in the Bristol area. So, thanks Kibuc, thanks massive heed, thanks wesdome gold. I walk away today with 50k profit from this trade alone. I'm not going to even mention all the "reflation" stocks that I'm currently down on...which is FAR more than 50k overall. BUT I have patience...and gold & silver (just no wesdome) in just about every form you can think of. 

 

Congrats mate, you succeeded where I failed. In all honesty, anyone who ever made money on WDO probably owes a pint to @EconomicAlpha on twatter, he's been championing them since early days. Nailed Kirkland Lake at CAD 2 (yes, TWO Canadian Dollars) as well.

I gave in to my inner gambler and left the train early, not making the same mistake now with my silver juniors

[Ellandback]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

yeah.  at what point do you take profits?  one of my holdings is up 23% in one day...

 

Christ knows, I will probably do fuck all like last march when I was last up a decent %, the arse will fall out of the market and I'll then bemoan my inertia until it recovers.

I was planning to trade this melt-up into the summer and exit completely but now I'm not so sure, various commentators have upped their PM price estimates for the bust so is it really worth the risk. Like the idea of top slicing into less riskier plays as DB suggests and then adding to the miners on any weakness. Will be interested to hear from more experienced people than I for some inspiration on how to play it.

[Boon]

Yes, me too. Gold seems have broken out, but the money printing suggests it might have further to go.

I was hoping for a pull-back the last few weeks, but it seems we might have had it at a higher level than I thought.

What allocations of assets are people using? I've had roughly 10% but I think this is too small to topslice. 

 

[Carcassion]

8 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Woah...

Silver now approaching $22.50, 12% up in 24hrs.

It's great isn't it? Last time I felt this optimistic was with my cryptocurrencies in Dec 2017  

What was that about potash again?

[jamtomorrow]

40 minutes ago, Boon said:

Yes, me too. Gold seems have broken out, but the money printing suggests it might have further to go.

I was hoping for a pull-back the last few weeks, but it seems we might have had it at a higher level than I thought.

What allocations of assets are people using? I've had roughly 10% but I think this is too small to topslice. 

 

30% directly in PMs (not miners). Would have liked a piece of the miners as well, but just getting to 30% in PMs felt like a titanic achievement given busy fam & work life.

At this rate the PMs will single-handed deliver me my 10% whole-portfolio for the year anyway, which would definitely sugar the pill of playing the long game with the likes of RDSB

Not a huge fan of these fast spikes in spot tho - might be a breakout, might be a disorderly market. I'd much prefer to see the frog boiled than leaping out of the pan.

[Loki]

59 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Not a huge fan of these fast spikes in spot tho - might be a breakout, might be a disorderly market

This is (Almost) as stressful as seeing a sea of red - agonising about when/whether to take profit!!

My 'play' 212 account has rocketed up from triple to quad digits.  I only have silver and GDX CFD's in there.  I just didn't feel like using my ISA money for them.  

[Harley]

A little factoid:  The silver price increase in GBP on the daily started to outpace gold in November 2019.  Has in the past but not for so long.

At least my coin premiums have been paid off!

[jamtomorrow]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

A little factoid:  The silver price increase in GBP on the daily started to outpace gold in November 2019.  Has in the past but not for so long.

At least my coin premiums have been paid off!

Haha, I'm keeping an eye on the same watershed @Harley - I need silver at ~ £600/kg to pay off the price-gouging on the Britannias

[Sasquatch]

I monitor the selling price of sovereigns and silver britannias on ebay. Just interesting background information really.

Sovereigns are selling for around £375. Silver britannias about £25. Postage costs on top. 

Approx 12 months ago I could buy at £260 and £17. 

 

[Loki]

DXY broke below 95

[Jesus Wept]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Haha, I'm keeping an eye on the same watershed @Harley - I need silver at ~ £600/kg to pay off the price-gouging on the Britannias

At £475/kg today - or thereabouts. 

You’ll see 1000/kg within 6 months.

Wait until the Nasdaq collapses in a few weeks - then you’ll see some action. 

I’ll be QQQs x 3 in a few weeks. 

Will start top slicing silver into potash and telcos by end of year after the big collapse  a la DB. 

There will be a ‘little window’ dip on silver when the main indices go kaput as people cover their margins.

Buy more silver on the dips..... as well as pick up big industrials at the bottom for future dividends. 
 

Well played so far DB. 👍 Much appreciated. 

[janch]

Gold, silver & the miners have all been performing really well since the March lows. I think we are about to see even better performance going forward. My targets remain gold $2300, silver $35, GDX $55, GDXJ $100, SIL $75, & SILJ $30.

 

As a reminder, David Hunter wrote the above on 19 July so he expects $35 for silver.  I also remember someone (?) saying Labour Day (Sept 1st) was often a day when the market could turn..................

[Sasquatch]

Just received this email from Bullionvault. Cash (just euros for now) no longer welcome! 

Dear BullionVault user,

 

Starting next month, we must apply a currency holding fee to Euros.

 

This is because, 6 years after the European Central Bank first imposed negative rates, our bank is now applying a negative interest rate to the Client Euro bank account.

 

To allow for this possibility, we emailed all customers and updated our Terms & Conditions in November 2019.

 

Now a fee of 0.75% per annum will apply to Euro currency balances from 1st August 2020.

 

That is the same rate being applied to the entire Euro currency Client Account by our bank. It is more than 6 times the annual cost of storing physical gold with BullionVault, insurance included (minimum US$4 per month).

 

Tariff: Currency Holding Fee

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This fee will be calculated daily and billed monthly. It will reduce every €100 you hold on deposit by 7 cents each month.

 

To limit the impact on any Euro holdings you have, please withdraw larger sums back to your own bank account, or buy physical bullion.

 

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This Euro holding fee does not change any of BullionVault's existing charges or fees.

[Starsend]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My portfolio is mainly now a retire portfolio,so although im tilted towards some high risk areas like the silver miners im always slowly rotating into big solid companies i expect to pay dividends and still do very well in a reflation.Iv always had the mentality towards my portfolio that if i can buy something that goes up 100% and then recycle into big divi payers it can pay big time.A lot of the BAT and Imperial shares i owned that multi bagged and paid huge income were bought when they were hated with profits from the tech boom.

A prime example this time is taking profits from Endeavour along the way and buying Nutrien,Telenor,Telefonica,Telia etc.In a way its getting them half price from already hugely down prices thanks to road mapping silver correct.

If i was 30 id of taken less profits now and chased higher capital gains.

You've mentioned before how you expect silver to end up $200+ over the next cycle and many of the juniors to ten bag or even more. Do you hold any of these long term or are you trading them? One of the quandaries I have is whether to take profits when something has risen 50% or forget about it for the long term.

[AWW]

As well as holding all the miners listed previously on this topic, which are 95% up since early May, I also hold some 3SIL, which is a leveraged silver ETF - and up 150% in the same timeframe.  I like leveraged ETFs, because you don't need to maintain margin. Just throwing that into the mix as an option for others who are very bullish on silver and would like to get the effect of buying miners, but don't like to spray and pray with the individual mining stocks.

The 10Y (actually only goes back 8 years) chart makes for interesting viewing...

Interested to hear what others think of leveraged ETFs.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Starsend said:

You've mentioned before how you expect silver to end up $200+ over the next cycle and many of the juniors to ten bag or even more. Do you hold any of these long term or are you trading them? One of the quandaries I have is whether to take profits when something has risen 50% or forget about it for the long term.

Il hold some yes for the long term and would add back more if there is a big pullback.Its to be remembered that i owned a lot of silver miners and a big chunk in them.If i ended up holding maybe 1/3 of what i put in for the cycle and doubled my capital on the rest id be very happy.There is a point i stop trimming the profits and hold the rest.Im not trading anything now,everything iv bought is to hold for the cycle,but i do trim and about face sometimes still.For instance i trimmed a few BHP this week,but im up 68% on them from buying in March,my aim for the 10 year cycle is 6.5% a year compounded,so they made nearly a decades gains in a few months.Of course there are also holdings underwater,some by a lot.

I trimmed a few Drax today 85% up from March and and bought a few more BAT,the holding had got too big as id bought a lot and again delivered a decades gains in a few months.

 

[CVG]

27 minutes ago, AWW said:

As well as holding all the miners listed previously on this topic, which are 95% up since early May, I also hold some 3SIL, which is a leveraged silver ETF - and up 150% in the same timeframe.  I like leveraged ETFs, because you don't need to maintain margin. Just throwing that into the mix as an option for others who are very bullish on silver and would like to get the effect of buying miners, but don't like to spray and pray with the individual mining stocks.

The 10Y (actually only goes back 8 years) chart makes for interesting viewing...

Interested to hear what others think of leveraged ETFs.

Per Investopedia

You're a brave man!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

At £475/kg today - or thereabouts. 

You’ll see 1000/kg within 6 months.

Wait until the Nasdaq collapses in a few weeks - then you’ll see some action. 

I’ll be QQQs x 3 in a few weeks. 

Will start top slicing silver into potash and telcos by end of year after the big collapse  a la DB. 

There will be a ‘little window’ dip on silver when the main indices go kaput as people cover their margins.

Buy more silver on the dips..... as well as pick up big industrials at the bottom for future dividends. 
 

Well played so far DB. 👍 Much appreciated. 

I really like that move of slicing silver miner profits into telcos and potash,iv pretty much doubled my holdings in Euro/Uk telcos out of the profits from the miners.Im actually trying to pick out a few industrials to add later but need to do more work.

Apple,Amazon,Microsoft,Alphabet,Facebook and Tesla now account for 50% of the NASDAQ 100 capitalisation and 41% of the entire 2700 companies in the full index.Not only that there are also many more hugely over-valued companies.

If Amazon falls to $800 billion market cap the index will likely be down 50%+.When is Amazon going to deliver $80 billion free cash  to justify $800 billion?