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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 minute ago, Vendetta said:

Down 12% at one point finished at -9%.

Any specific reason? 

I have no idea I'm afraid! Makes no sense with China still flooding and I assume crops still growing in this hemisphere at this time of year

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6 hours ago, janch said:

Here is an interesting pilot project which involves some of our reflation companies:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53762711?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

Energy firm SSE Enterprise will lead the project, backed by Bus2Grid project in a partnership including the mayor of London, Transport for London, bus operator Go-Ahead London and the University of Leeds.

Interesting isnt it how we have identified the right areas.Im going to start buying Go Ahead again.Iv been put off with the nature of the crash smashing demand longer term,but divis are flowing in and im going to allocate those to Go Ahead for a bit.

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On K+S the sector is entering a bull market,some companies (Mosaic/Nutrien) are better placed with good balance sheets,others like K+S have big debts due to expansion at the bottom of the cycle.Markets will worry they might go under,need equity etc and they announced they took a loan today from the government.

The best advice is ignore short term movements,do something else,watch tv,do things you enjoy and let the cycle play out.

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9 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

 

12 hours ago, Dogtania said:

£1.50 a go?  I have £1.50 regular dealing charges set up for aj bell but only for FTSE 250... Take it you don't own the shares your taking the punt on?

You could use Trading 212 for free dealing (probably charged via spread, has Isa wrapper too) or Degiro for still very cheap dealing (and very wide stock and market selection, but no Isa). Neither do Sipp or Lisa

 

Freetrade also have free share dealing and an ISA. Nice app, good analysis and interesting weekly email . UK based. Limited number of shares at the moment but growing and they listen when you ask for a particular share. 
 

will check out Trading212 👍🏻

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14 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Freetrade also have free share dealing and an ISA. Nice app, good analysis and interesting weekly email . UK based. Limited number of shares at the moment but growing and they listen when you ask for a particular share. 
 

will check out Trading212 👍🏻

Didn't realize freetrade offered ISA.  To be fair I've not had a good look around only have a very small amount in but like you say they seem to be growing and offering more selection as time goes by.  

Will really need to get my head around fractional shares and all..I sort of assume in reality it will be as safe as owning the shares outright (although guess HL and AJ are also custodians of your "whole" shares too)

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9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Interesting isnt it how we have identified the right areas.Im going to start buying Go Ahead again.Iv been put off with the nature of the crash smashing demand longer term,but divis are flowing in and im going to allocate those to Go Ahead for a bit.

Please do as currently this is the dog in my portfolio, your generosity would be much appreciated! :-) :-) :-)

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1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Please do as currently this is the dog in my portfolio, your generosity would be much appreciated! :-) :-) :-)

The nature of the crash hit the sector very hard,i own some in my ISA at £13.50 and Stagecoach at £1.37 so -50%.I did buy Go Ahead and National Express in March though,they doubled and i sold them in my SIPP.Iv several stocks down 50%+,but id take those all day long considering how many +100% we have nailed through this.Its why everyone should always have a maximum sector allocation.Its one reason i sold a lot of silver miners when they ran,i had full allocation in them before they moved so they became far too big an allocation after.

The fact everyone on here should actually be up from before this crisis hit is a stunning achievement really.Very few will be able to say that.Im working with a few guys who have gone back into employment because their pensions in draw down were hit so much in March.That will be a big story of the cycle.Pensions at best standing still nominal with 2% fees and 5% draw down pa,ouch.

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leonardratso
17 hours ago, Dogtania said:

£1.50 a go?  I have £1.50 regular dealing charges set up for aj bell but only for FTSE 250... Take it you don't own the shares your taking the punt on?

ah no, i just pile the crappy aim stocks onto the back of the list of regular buys to keep the dealing cost @ 1.50 to buy, otherwise id be paying between 8-11 quid for buying my tens of thousands of  fifth of a penny shit heaps.

Im into hzm, sres, adt1, itm and ufo, oh and ukog, most of them are dubious at best, im treating them like a visit to ladbrokes.

mind you, having said that such shit as former ftse100 co's like 'cna'  should be in the same bucket judging by the performance of the share price.

 

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7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ah no, i just pile the crappy aim stocks onto the back of the list of regular buys to keep the dealing cost @ 1.50 to buy, otherwise id be paying between 8-11 quid for buying my tens of thousands of  fifth of a penny shit heaps.

Im into hzm, sres, adt1, itm and ufo, oh and ukog, most of them are dubious at best, im treating them like a visit to ladbrokes.

mind you, having said that such shit as former ftse100 co's like 'cna'  should be in the same bucket judging by the performance of the share price.

 

That's great thanks for the info... That is the kind of thing I'd like to try.  Previously taken some very dodgy punts but like you feel even some of the mainstream 'non dodgy" punts can turn super shady but at least you may have a bit more upside potential with the former.   Clearly no basis for a portfolio foundation but wonder if it's actually sensible to have a few in there for the risk exposure.  The likes of RBS etc back in the day would never be able to multi bag but certainly can multi shrink!

Taken a few punts in my day but always due to dealing charges have been put off buying to little (and inevitably end up with a larger holding than I'd like the worst performers whilst less in the miracles - to be honest wish I had done this with the miners more too 'spray n prey' and even my single potash play which was k&s over mosaic😅 live and learn!

Will be keeping an eye out anyway for where to do the regular investing low offers.  Most important for me is keeping it in some kind of wrapper be it ISA or otherwise.  Maybe they have changed now but wasn't impressed with the fact that I couldn't set it up in my HL Sipp without new money coming in (only fresh deposits into my Sipp rather than money already sitting there in cash - as opposed to AJ Lisa where I can use the internal balance for the regular £1.50 dealing but only on FTSE 250)

I'm definitely not a trader and if I try to time things, it's usually not to my favour so regular unthinking investment always made sense even if it was expensive funds like I used to buy in HL.

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The nature of the crash hit the sector very hard,i own some in my ISA at £13.50 and Stagecoach at £1.37 so -50%.I did buy Go Ahead and National Express in March though,they doubled and i sold them in my SIPP.Iv several stocks down 50%+,but id take those all day long considering how many +100% we have nailed through this.Its why everyone should always have a maximum sector allocation.Its one reason i sold a lot of silver miners when they ran,i had full allocation in them before they moved so they became far too big an allocation after.

The fact everyone on here should actually be up from before this crisis hit is a stunning achievement really.Very few will be able to say that.Im working with a few guys who have gone back into employment because their pensions in draw down were hit so much in March.That will be a big story of the cycle.Pensions at best standing still nominal with 2% fees and 5% draw down pa,ouch.

The problem is I want to see every stock green, the single re one spoils the pattern...note to myself "Must stop being so OCD!" :-) :-) :-)

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15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On K+S the sector is entering a bull market,some companies (Mosaic/Nutrien) are better placed with good balance sheets,others like K+S have big debts due to expansion at the bottom of the cycle.Markets will worry they might go under,need equity etc and they announced they took a loan today from the government.

The best advice is ignore short term movements,do something else,watch tv,do things you enjoy and let the cycle play out.

In the bigger picture the move down is just a blip:

image.thumb.png.421892e70247271a8302769cfebfdad1.png

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leonardratso
10 minutes ago, janch said:

Those 3 were good picks:D

hzm has performed well as well.

obviously all of them can spin on a dime, they should probably all be in the reckless gamblers thread.

 

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10 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Freetrade also have free share dealing and an ISA. Nice app, good analysis and interesting weekly email . UK based. Limited number of shares at the moment but growing and they listen when you ask for a particular share. 
 

will check out Trading212 👍🏻

212 seems to have more choice than freetrade. Has some gold miners too. Barrick, yamana etc

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8 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Started following this guy a few weeks ago.  Might be if interest to those on the twitter.

And there was us loading up in March on those commod stocks as soon as we saw the dollar bounce off 100 as the Fed pumped enough to remove systemic risk.Its incredible really how few people actually understand lags etc from the CBs.Its almost like momentum and passive are all that counts.Hopefully people on here are up 100% on Mosaic.I love Nutrien for the cycle.Not the massive upside potential of Mosaic,but a quality company in a fantastic niche.We might get 150%+ out of it over the cycle.

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Food prices are up 13% in China year on year.

Potash should keep running higher.Might we get potash to do a silver miner and give us a cycles profits in 6 months?.

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Food prices are up 13% in China year on year.

Potash should keep running higher.Might we get potash to do a silver miner and give us a cycles profits in 6 months?.

Make it worth my while and I promise not to buy any MOS 

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Transistor Man
6 hours ago, leonardratso said:

the lying old get.

Very interesting. 

All those years buying sweetshops, batteries, railways, car insurance, but his Apple stake is now 20% of Berkshire’s market cap.

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M S E Refugee
35 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

Very interesting. 

All those years buying sweetshops, batteries, railways, car insurance, but his Apple stake is now 20% of Berkshire’s market cap.

I wonder if he will keep adding to his position in Barrick, it seems rather ominous that someone who has derided Gold all of his life now starts investing in it.

Here's a couple of quotes from Gold hating Buffet.

“(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

“I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola (KO) will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo (WFC) will be making a lot of money, and there will be a lot — and it’s a lot — it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that."

If he buys Smith&Wesson Stock next then he will have become a tin foiled hatted doomsday prepper as he will have access to plenty of canned goods through his holding in Kraft Heinz.

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Transistor Man
46 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I wonder if he will keep adding to his position in Barrick, 

Having done this, I wouldn’t be that surprised if he buys it outright.

It’s always been his preferred option. If that’s what he does with the Apple money ......

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