Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, Craig said:

Well to be fair, she's clearly an idiot. Just write "aye, fine, whatever" and move on. Job done.

It's the principle isn't it - people need to stand up to such oppression and nonsense  

[Craig]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

It's the principle isn't it - people need to stand up to such oppression and nonsense  

Got to be seen to play the game. Last thing you want is someone serving a discrimination lawsuit.

[geordie_lurch]

9 minutes ago, Craig said:

Got to be seen to play the game. Last thing you want is someone serving a discrimination lawsuit.

I think you might be missing the point - she isn't discriminating against anyone but simply stating biological facts? Playing other people's games is soul destroying both personally and professionally and will make you very unhappy however I digress and don't want to derail this thread more  so will leave it there.

[Noallegiance]

22 minutes ago, Craig said:

Got to be seen to play the game. 

That's how benign became murdering Nazis.

[Craig]

13 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think you might be missing the point - she isn't discriminating against anyone but simply stating biological facts? Playing other people's games is soul destroying both personally and professionally and will make you very unhappy however I digress and don't want to derail this thread more  so will leave it there.

Not at all. Public servants need to be a bit more savvy though, irrespective of your actual views on the subject.

[JMD]

57 minutes ago, Craig said:

Got to be seen to play the game. Last thing you want is someone serving a discrimination lawsuit.

Congratulations, your BLM T-shirt is in the post. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 hours ago, Craig said:

Well to be fair, she's clearly an idiot. Just write "aye, fine, whatever" and move on. Job done.

Then you become part of the lie: “How many fingers am I holding up winston?”

 

I take my self respect over money, and anyone who wants to join the U.K. public sector now needs their head examined.

 

I was a prison officer for ten years so I know of what I speak.

[janch]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

Ignore it and hope for the best 

My logic is that my buys were made with the best info I had at the time and are all reflation stocks.  If no new information has come to light, there is no point selling and realising a loss. 

For example, AFC bounced back to a much less negative number.  INFA still down but technically doubled at points since March.

Back on topic.............

I'm the same because the investments I made are for the whole cycle so until around 2028.  My worst performers are CNA/GOG and Stagecoach which I kept even though they are all severely underwater.  CNA was - 75% at one stage.  Now only - 65%.  Maybe the transports will never get back on track (LOL) but I'll wait a bit before ditching them completely.  We're still at an early stage of the "pandemic".

I bought these last year and since then I've decided I'll wait until a share seems to have bottomed out before buying so even though I probably should have bought some potash before now I will probably buy some K&S AG/OCi NV this week if we have a "down" day.

I'm still on a steep learning curve and have at least learnt not to panic when I see a sea of red

[leonardratso]

27 minutes ago, janch said:

Back on topic.............

I'm the same because the investments I made are for the whole cycle so until around 2028.  My worst performers are CNA/GOG and Stagecoach which I kept even though they are all severely underwater.  CNA was - 75% at one stage.  Now only - 65%.  Maybe the transports will never get back on track (LOL) but I'll wait a bit before ditching them completely.  We're still at an early stage of the "pandemic".

I bought these last year and since then I've decided I'll wait until a share seems to have bottomed out before buying so even though I probably should have bought some potash before now I will probably buy some K&S AG/OCi NV this week if we have a "down" day.

I'm still on a steep learning curve and have at least learnt not to panic when I see a sea of red

im buying potash on t212, commssion free, means i can get them for spot so small amounts dont get buggered by loads of small transactions and tons of trading commission. Also averaging down really does average it down.

 

PS. also got a couple of free shares 1xUAA and 1xRDSB for refferring a friend or 2 ace. They got 1 as well, just a random share, flogged the UAA, kept the RDSB.

i started with a quid to get the freebies;

Do you want to get a free stock share worth up to £100?

Create a Trading 212 Invest account using this link

www.trading212.com/invite/GIghWDrz

and we both get a free share!

 

[RickyBacker]

5 hours ago, AWW said:

I would be interested to hear how the more experienced people on this thread deal with large drops. Even if you're buying and holding, 75% is huge - the stock would need to quadruple just to get flat.

I'm far from experienced, but my strategy is based on the laddering strategy already discussed. However, it depends on the stock... If it's an AIM gamble then I'll allow myself three ladders. Each ladder being a percentage of the initial stake (e.g £750/£500/£250). I don't have an actual method for when to invest the 2nd/3rd ladders but it would generally be dependent on news released by the company.and/or after a significant (50%+) fall in price 
I'll also (mentally) split the shares into a 'hold pot' and a 'trade pot'. I think almost every AIM share I've held has always fallen back after a significant rise and I therefore trade accordingly whilst keeping a core holding some just in case of the multi-bag.

For bigger companies I also ladder but with larger sums and lower percentage drops.

Basically, I invest in the FTSE but trade/invest/hope on AIM
 

[wherebee]

44 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Then you become part of the lie: “How many fingers am I holding up winston?”

 

I take my self respect over money, and anyone who wants to join the U.K. public sector now needs their head examined.

 

I was a prison officer for ten years so I know of what I speak.

I disagree in one area: if you are ethnic, and female, you are effectively bulletproof in a public sector job.  Rational decision to go for that sort of role.

[DurhamBorn]

I havent sold any that are under water and probably wont.They are part of a portfolio structured around a macro road map.Holding Centrica wasnt a mistake.Selling Sibanye on a double was a mistake,its nearly 5 bagged now.Thats cost me a lot more money than buying Centrica.Iv got some BT way down,but im very very pleased about that because i never expected to get the whole sector as cheap as i have been doing and still am.Markets arent linear and nobody on this thread can of under performed the market this year.

Its human nature to focus on shares that are down and torture yourself over them,but in reality they dont matter as much as the ones you sell too early on the way up.

 

[wherebee]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I havent sold any that are under water and probably wont.They are part of a portfolio structured around a macro road map.Holding Centrica wasnt a mistake.Selling Sibanye on a double was a mistake,its nearly 5 bagged now.Thats cost me a lot more money than buying Centrica.Iv got some BT way down,but im very very pleased about that because i never expected to get the whole sector as cheap as i have been doing and still am.Markets arent linear and nobody on this thread can of under performed the market this year.

Its human nature to focus on shares that are down and torture yourself over them,but in reality they dont matter as much as the ones you sell too early on the way up.

 

But the sunk cost fallacy is a real thing?  What about those people that held onto RBS shares, for example?  Or those that didn't get out of Lehmans?

[Lightscribe]

BTC and silver just got a knockdown after breaking out the last few days exactly at the same time no manipulation there, no siriee 

[leonardratso]

oil took the hit as well.

its as if its all connected..... no, couldnt be.... could it? hahaha course it feckin is.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

But the sunk cost fallacy is a real thing?  What about those people that held onto RBS shares, for example?  Or those that didn't get out of Lehmans?

They lost the capital in them.If we hadnt seen the massive dislocation we had in March we wouldnt of seen the printing start and we wouldnt of seen silver miners triple and more for us.Its the nature of the beast.Its a different question though.They owned the wrong sectors at the end of the cycle.We owned the right shares for the macro picture.Some had individual problems,some are in sectors yet to ignite.Potash is up 100% since buying in March,oil stocks are down a few %.At the time there was no way to know what would move first and it doesnt matter.What matters is the bottom line.Im much more concerned about selling winners too early than the odd blow up.

[janch]

Trump is bringing manufacturing back to the US from China.  This is significant for geopolitics and has been an expected move for a while:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53816277

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Sideysid said:

BTC and silver just got a knockdown after breaking out the last few days exactly at the same time no manipulation there, no siriee 

Sideysid, do you have a view on what BTC does from here? I begin buying into BTC late so only own a third of what i wanted to accumulate. For me it's a long term hold strategy, but still 'painful' buying at these prices, even if it could fly to £100,000+!!!                                                                                                                                                                                             I wonder what others are doing/expecting, I know there are some new investors in BTC here, are any  you guys waiting for a correction down, or is that now looking unlikely given the macro environment we are now into?

[The Idiocrat]

23 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sideysid, do you have a view on what BTC does from here? I begin buying into BTC late so only own a third of what i wanted to accumulate. For me it's a long term hold strategy, but still 'painful' buying at these prices, even if it could fly to £100,000+!!!                                                                                                                                                                                             I wonder what others are doing/expecting, I know there are some new investors in BTC here, are any  you guys waiting for a correction down, or is that now looking unlikely given the macro environment we are now into?

I’ve been accumulating for a couple of years since the last crash to hit a base target level, with a view to cost averaging thereafter, and am therefore laddering, whether it goes up or down, same as for stocks really. I moved about 10% into Ethereum last month after researching v2.0, which was a lucky move. I’m crap at timing exits and then buying back in, and so see BTC/ETH as long terms holds, same as PMs, albeit much more volatile, so will keep on dripfeeding.

ETA: Obviously it’s a small %age of my investments, there’s still a slim chance it’ll go to zero.

[Lightscribe]

44 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sideysid, do you have a view on what BTC does from here? I begin buying into BTC late so only own a third of what i wanted to accumulate. For me it's a long term hold strategy, but still 'painful' buying at these prices, even if it could fly to £100,000+!!!                                                                                                                                                                                             I wonder what others are doing/expecting, I know there are some new investors in BTC here, are any  you guys waiting for a correction down, or is that now looking unlikely given the macro environment we are now into?

I’ve often stated on here with my crypto updates but haven’t for a while. I started out buying BTC in the early days then sold, ETH then sold, LINK then sold etc etc. Each time selling waaay too early and taking profit. 

I took a new approach after the BTC crash, I bought 1 BTC at $3k and put half on my hardware wallet and used the other half for trading. I’ve now managed to get that back up to 1 BTC now trading with ETH and LINK. Trading is fairly straightforward with crypto and all the home algorithm trading bots uses similar indicators like the MACD and support levels. 

LINK has done incredibly well (to think I had 10k of them at one stage ) and has literally went from $4 to nearly $20 in the space of a couple of months. It’s now retracing now, so I’m currently all back in BTC as it was pumping through heavy manipulation through $12.1k support level which means all the alts drop.

One to look out for that interests me in SXP. Binance themselves are using the system for its payment card. I myself have ordered one of the cards myself to test, as the 1%-4% BTC cashback seems too high for a Visa card that has to conform to EU maximum transaction fees (which doesn’t affect Amex strangely enough).

https://swipe.io

My view on BTC from here? There’s 46.8 million millionaires in the world. There’s a max supply of 21 million BTC, a lot of those have been lost or simply won’t be able to be mined so there’s 17.3 million in circulation.

In the midst of inflation running wild in the next few years, people are going to be hedging in everything they can to combat that. BTC will be the go to just as PMs. It’s very easy to invest now with HL offering trackers for both BTC and ETH, and bonus being tax free in an ISA.

Whether or not the powers that be allow this to all happen is another matter, with confiscation orders like in 1933 and 1966 (PS get a hardware wallet offline)

[Loki]

49 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

HL offering trackers for both BTC and ETH, and bonus being tax free in an ISA.

I had no idea that existed. Thanks

[harp]

Anyone hold Intrepid Potash on HL? I know there was a reverse stock split (whatever that means) but it seems my holding has gone to nothing on HL. Anyone?

[The Idiocrat]

25 minutes ago, harp said:

Anyone hold Intrepid Potash on HL? I know there was a reverse stock split (whatever that means) but it seems my holding has gone to nothing on HL. Anyone?

Yep. Does appear in my portfolio but shows no price. There is a footnote on there that says it's interim, so presumably it'll be sorted. 

[DoINeedOne]

 

24 minutes ago, harp said:

Anyone hold Intrepid Potash on HL? I know there was a reverse stock split (whatever that means) but it seems my holding has gone to nothing on HL. Anyone?

 

1 minute ago, The Idiocrat said:

Yep. Shows no price. There is a note on that that says it's interim, so presumably it'll be sorted. 

If i remember correctly when Eldorado Gold did a stock split i had the same thing then it re-calculated one random day

[MrXxxx]

Q. Can anyone explain the reason for this. Nex trading today, two massive/sudden trading spikes towards the end of the day (share buyers), why so sudden/severe?...is it instutional investors buying en masse?