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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Bakken from space. I've been there and there is nothing but cows and oil rigs. Horrible to waste all that energy, but that's what they do. It's so low EROEI, you would end up with no net energy at market. This is why gas is not a true commodity, and often depends on local market prices (the cattle don't need natural gas). Some of this is is lights from the rigs and pads, in fairness. But mostly flare

image.png.1d4c43d4de304ee4aece9815a5bfb9ec.png

 

Eagle Ford Texas. See how it stops at the Mexican border? Well, it doesn't. The Mexicans just can't get their act together (cartels on the border) and instead import gas from Texas.

image.png.4bbffdd5ef106265a87c6b121a2f84a6.png

Nigeria is pretty bad at it too:

image.png.27337a8f140d7cc81f59417bb011b74c.png

Just for something different!

 

https://geology.com/articles/oil-fields-from-space/

 

 Domestic Gas is dirt cheap here in the US. 

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Depends what parts of BT they want to keep and what they want to sell.Only competition issue would be over a few TV things.No issues over broadband,mobile etc.

I think Comcast could be interested.

Sky have around a quarter of the broadband market in the U.K. They swallowed up the likes of Easynet and Tiscali and sell broadband as a bundle with TV subscriptions. Combine that with BT and you have around a 60% market share. That would never be allowed.

https://www.choose.co.uk/guide/home-broadband-market-overview.html

 

 

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4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Sky have around a quarter of the broadband market in the U.K. They swallowed up the likes of Easynet and Tiscali and sell broadband as a bundle with TV subscriptions. Combine that with BT and you have around a 60% market share. That would never be allowed.

https://www.choose.co.uk/guide/home-broadband-market-overview.html

 

 

True,but they could sell that part as they are just over the top providers.Most telcos mergers face those kind of problems.It will be interesting to see how the sector consolidates.Of course governments could slow consolidation if they allow telcos to make higher returns,as they will have to.The sector is in play though one way or another.

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leonardratso

didnt talk talk take over tiscali?

used to be half way decent tiscali before talk talk sucked em in.

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leonardratso
5 minutes ago, subutai80 said:

I own the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) etf and just found out that global x are going to liquidate it.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/03/2072032/0/en/Global-X-ETFs-to-Liquidate-Five-ETFs.html

While it is annoying that I'll lose exposure via this etf, i'm hoping it is a signal that the sector is about to turn up.

 

why would that be a signal? surely it would keep going if it was due a rise?

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10 hours ago, wherebee said:

I've read about that before, and the number one comment on the page was 'why not just plant more trees' :Jumping:

Wherebee, re Artificial tree/carbon capture - Its because the technology is 1000x more efficient than the humble tree. Apparently mother nature can be improved upon after all (cognitive dissonance? - we will resort to saving our environment by replacing(sup'planting'?) nature itself!).

The fact is huge areas of Amazon, etc are being lost, and the space to grow trees is at increasing competition with farming livestock/bigger population. The politics are that the green lobby are winning the argument that just achieving a carbon neutral state by say 2050 wont be sufficient, and so increasingly louder calls will be made for us to actively extract carbon from the atmosphere.

I accept it is a risky investment, but some here bought into individual hydrogen battery tech co's and did very well. I think this is a similar opportunity.

 

(Disclaimer: You don't have to believe any of the climate theories to invest, i myself am dubious; Piers Corbyn (brother of J.) thinks it's all sunspots; dyor!!)

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54 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

didnt talk talk take over tiscali?

used to be half way decent tiscali before talk talk sucked em in.

Yeah you’re right. I thought it was Sky.

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1 hour ago, subutai80 said:

I own the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) etf and just found out that global x are going to liquidate it.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/03/2072032/0/en/Global-X-ETFs-to-Liquidate-Five-ETFs.html

While it is annoying that I'll lose exposure via this etf, i'm hoping it is a signal that the sector is about to turn up.

 

About to turn up?,Im up 100% on Mosaic and many others are well up from their lows.Its a very good point though,lack of investor interest is fantastic.Its actually incredible how the market is structured at the minute.Is it 25% of the S+P now in a few techs?

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

why would that be a signal? surely it would keep going if it was due a rise?

Lack of investor demand,they arent interested in up or down just numbers of investors and amount.

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3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

About to turn up?,Im up 100% on Mosaic and many others are well up from their lows.Its a very good point though,lack of investor interest is fantastic.Its actually incredible how the market is structured at the minute.Is it 25% of the S+P now in a few techs?

I wish I'd bought MOS instead of the dog K+S. Still time to add Potash? MOS and Nutrien are favourites of this thread, any others? Or an ETF?

Oilies going lower, I don't think I'm brave enough to add more here as I'm already looking well allocated. But extension of furlough / WFH is worrying. Might be underwater for a while here, so keeping the faith as a LTH.

The tech bubble in US stocks is crazy. Many investors "Looking the wrong way" ?

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2 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

I wish I'd bought MOS instead of the dog K+S. Still time to add Potash? MOS and Nutrien are favourites of this thread, any others? Or an ETF?

Oilies going lower, I don't think I'm brave enough to add more here as I'm already looking well allocated. But extension of furlough / WFH is worrying. Might be underwater for a while here, so keeping the faith as a LTH.

K+S is the most risky in the sector due to balance sheet problems,but if they can sell the salt business they could end up a multi bag,they are high risk,potential reward.Nutrien wont give fireworks like others,but is a superb company positioned very well for the cycle.

Iv been trimming a few things (a few BHP up 70% from March) and buying some BP.I had trimmed them at £3.20.

I dont usually trim and re-allocate like this,but lots of moving parts at the moment.Oil price doesnt interest me now.It will hit $200,maybe $300 during the next cycle,and the ones im in im confident they will make it to that point.I think im at 14% in integrated energy,18% all energy and id gladly take that to 20%.

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5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

K+S is the most risky in the sector due to balance sheet problems,but if they can sell the salt business they could end up a multi bag,they are high risk,potential reward.Nutrien wont give fireworks like others,but is a superb company positioned very well for the cycle.

Iv been trimming a few things (a few BHP up 70% from March) and buying some BP.I had trimmed them at £3.20.

I dont usually trim and re-allocate like this,but lots of moving parts at the moment.Oil price doesnt interest me now.It will hit $200,maybe $300 during the next cycle,and the ones im in im confident they will make it to that point.I think im at 14% in integrated energy,18% all energy and id gladly take that to 20%.

Aye - I’ve kept my K&S and plan to add more when it gets whacked by the coming Nasdaq collapse. Definitely a multi bagger with the high debt consequently ‘cheap’ now. Will pick up some more MOS and Nutrien at the same time. 
 

The NASDAQ collapse will hopefully give some real opportunities to pick up some stock in the OPTIMiSM sectors. I am just building cash for now. I’ll try to invest only after crashes or when the market is bumbling along and no one wants to buy. 
 

The Greed/Fear index is flashing ‘RED’ dor GREED at present 82/100.

Too much downside possible for me to enter now. 

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1 hour ago, subutai80 said:

I own the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) etf and just found out that global x are going to liquidate it.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/03/2072032/0/en/Global-X-ETFs-to-Liquidate-Five-ETFs.html

While it is annoying that I'll lose exposure via this etf, i'm hoping it is a signal that the sector is about to turn up.

 

 The Funds will liquidate on or around Friday, August 28, 2020.

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Sold some Minera Alamos was up 130% sold enough to recover my original investment and will now let the leftover shares run

Just waiting on Gazprom Dividend to clear which will be reinvested

Vodaphone dividend got reinvested into vodaphone

 

 

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sancho panza

Looking to build out Baccy and Telecoms from hereonin.Some coma scale scores for the former sector. 25 is great value,5 is the lowest score you can get.Personally,anything over 17 looks reasonable to me but I'd steer clear of anything with a 1 in the BS column jsut to avoid any potnetial second viewings of the Scottish Play

As ever,all dyodd warnings apply.I'm using data on Investing.com and making no comment on the specifics of any balance sheet eg goodwill/intangibles.

Company  Chart Income Balance Sheet Cash flow Sector SCS
JAPAY 4 4 3 5 4 20
BATS 3 4 3 5 4 19
IMB 3 4 1 5 4 17
ALTRIA 2 2 1 4 4 13
PM 2 4 1 4 4 15
KT&G 2 4 5 4 4 19
ITC 2 3 5 3 4 17
Gudang Garam 2 5 4 4 4 19

 

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6 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

What has changed today? Gold and tech stocks are going up? Tesla, Pelaton, WTF? 

US plane spied on a Chinese naval exercise and really touched a nerve, China's firing missiles off into the sea as a warning.  Not looking good.

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12 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

US plane spied on a Chinese naval exercise and really touched a nerve, China's firing missiles off into the sea as a warning.  Not looking good.

That could explain gold.. There is another anomaly, oil price is going up a bit but producers shares are going down

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Just now, Bear Hug said:

That could explain gold.. There is another anomaly, oil price is going up a bit but producers shares are going down

Could be the storms? Energy needed for rebuilding, but could also damage equipment?

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2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Could be the storms? Energy needed for rebuilding, but could also damage equipment?

For all of them?  I set 1-2% below current price limit orders in a few oil companies and most executed

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