Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Panda said:

Why is BP falling? 

Current SP , 7.5% yield.

Will it go lower in the coming weeks?

Will they cut the Div again.

Just seems to good to be true as a buy opportunity 

Better than Shell.

Wonder what tomorrow will bring. Never ever thought we'd see sub 2.35 again...

Odd times..

Spurred on by @Popuplights (again, many thanks) I rescanned (using Investing.com) the "OIl & Gas Operations" industry last night and BP failed the first cut on the basis of their 124% Total Debt to Equity ratio.  The UK industry average is about 44%.  BP are outliers in the range.

Not that I can make much sense of the Total Debt to Equity figures.  Shares listed in the UK (Total, RDS, etc) show one figure but another looking at them in their home exchange.  I wish sites like Investing.com would explain how they derived their figures.

[Craig]

Just gone ball-deep into REP.

Like the cut of their jib, even if it does feel like catching the proverbial falling knife right now.

[Harley]

Talking of Oil & Gas Operations companies, for those in the know, so what's wrong with Polski KoncernNaftowy ORLEN SA (PLPKN0000018 , ticker PKN on the Warsaw exchange and 0FMN (CDI) on the FTSE)?

[JREWING]

6 minutes ago, Craig said:

Just gone ball-deep into REP.

Like the cut of their jib, even if it does feel like catching the proverbial falling knife right now.

Good luck buddy, I like your style...

I did the same with RDSB last week. Balls deep. Proper balls deep.
 

Never quite worked for me, but I keep thinking 4.7% divi compared to 0.7% yield on a conventional savings account.

I'm not selling so its just a number on a screen...

[JREWING]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'd say sentiment, really. It's finally got bad enough for Steve Kaplan to start buying again. Which is heartening to see.

I think BPs new message is a bit woolly and unrealistic, but Shell is down the same way, so looks to be market wide rather than specific to BP. i.e., sentiment.

CP is that a good sign Steve Kaplin is buying Oil shares? Who is he?

They hit something silly at close of play last night; they are back up over 2.35 today, for how long hell knows?

The P/E is crazy really considering they have cut their div by half.

I mean if you were well off, bunged £500k at them. You could retire for life on £34500.00 before tax. Thats not even touching your capital with possible share growth and div growth.

In the current enviroment, it just seems too easy.

 

[JREWING]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

Re. RDSB, or any share, you'll drive yourself crazy looking at daily swings, or 'how much money you've lost since you invested'. That's day trading, this thread is macro investing i.e. medium-long term. Perhaps think of it like this: what is a reasonable max downside in RDSB? 15% (I don't know number from the air)? How long with compounded divis would it take you to stay whole? In three and a bit years you're still ahead on your savings account whilst having skin in the game for huge upside potential.

Brilliant. Great analogy.

Only bought my first share two weeks ago. So I'm still in the shallow end.

But it's interesting. This thread. F++king

Awesome.

Thanks anyway.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, AWW said:

I’ve an interview next week at a UK based bank, with three blokes (or birds) called Gurjit, Harjiner and Wai-Chung. I can only assume that they’ve been told to make their team more diverse by hiring a middle-aged white bloke.

AWW, It sounds a horror show to be honest. I expect you are practicing your woke 'performance art', and all the other modern-day required interview techniques, the following might help... (Edit: oops i just noticed (honest!) ...its the first book in the list, the others are just plain bad taste, though i do wonder what happened at the University of Iowa?; ...i'll shut up now and stop digging!!)

http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3r48b8

Can i be cheeky and ask you to let us know how the interview goes? (good luck btw) 

[JMD]

Back to on-topic (safety!). Another Lyn Alden podcast. (But its another 'macro' podcaster series for those interested)

To be honest nothing especially new content wise, but it is so interesting how - over the last two years - she has come round to @DurhamBorns thesis through tech analysis approach... (i believe DB uses different set of tools, but its the same conclusion, please correct me if wrong?). So for example she talks about debt alleviation via inflation and/or global currency devaluations, commodities, bit-coin, end of US reserve, even 4th turnings, etc. Unfortunately she currently only sees gold going to $3000, but honest broker as she is (they do still exist!), i shall continue monitoring and hope to see her gold price forecast grow and grow. 

 

 

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Ex BT, Vodafone and others advising the government via a taskforce

https://telecoms.com/506622/ex-bt-ceo-to-chair-uk-governments-anti-huawei-taskforce/

Cold war thesis from  @DurhamBorn bang on .Huewai's only real chance of taking over the UK was with Treeza the Appeeeza runnign our security and thinking of letting foreign powers have the keys to nuclear facilities on mainland UK iirc....

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'd say sentiment, really. It's finally got bad enough for Steve Kaplan to start buying again. Which is heartening to see.

I think BPs new message is a bit woolly and unrealistic, but Shell is down the same way, so looks to be market wide rather than specific to BP. i.e., sentiment.

It is sector wide,Total hasn't sold off as much as the rest.But XOM/RDSB/BP/ENI/REP all plumbing March lows.

On that matter-decl-running slide rule over some out of the moeny option trades-interesting to note big oil bottomed a full month befre we got the low in the underlying on Apr 20th

Be interesting to see if thepattern repeats and we see bottoms in the oilies ahead of the sub $30 print WTI

Have had to look after the kids the last three days so been unable to work out my buying stategy but it's not worked out so bad.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Panda said:

CP is that a good sign Steve Kaplin is buying Oil shares? Who is he?

They hit something silly at close of play last night; they are back up over 2.35 today, for how long hell knows?

The P/E is crazy really considering they have cut their div by half.

I mean if you were well off, bunged £500k at them. You could retire for life on £34500.00 before tax. Thats not even touching your capital with possible share growth and div growth.

In the current enviroment, it just seems too easy.

 

AS CP said,jsut don't watch your shre prices too much.I honestly don't know our exact average price of stocks as they're held across different accounts.Just said the same to my mate who's worrying about his oilies being down.See previous posts about holding billiton and BATS since 2000 and how many 50% pull backs they've had.

Oil is heading to a bull market imho.I don't sweat the pull backs but will jsut keep reinvesting the divi's while theyre this cheap.

28 minutes ago, JMD said:

Back to on-topic (safety!). Another Lyn Alden podcast. (But its another 'macro' podcaster series for those interested)

To be honest nothing especially new content wise, but it is so interesting how - over the last two years - she has come round to @DurhamBorns thesis through tech analysis approach... (i believe DB uses different set of tools, but its the same conclusion, please correct me if wrong?). So for example she talks about debt alleviation via inflation and/or global currency devaluations, commodities, bit-coin, end of US reserve, even 4th turnings, etc. Unfortunately she currently only sees gold going to $3000, but honest broker as she is (they do still exist!), i shall continue monitoring and hope to see her gold price forecast grow and grow. 

 

 

I saw you (I think) psot a Lyn Alden versus Hugh Hendry twitter spat and wanted to weigh in at the time but had too much on with kids.

She really is a qulaity commentator.WIth trading you takes your risk but Hugh has been wrong a lot over the last ten years and finally went bullish a three or four yers back and has since closed his funds iirc.Much as he's entertaining wathcing him trying to school Lyn was jsut embarassing.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

He's an excellent contrarian investor, often discussed on here. Google 'True Contrarian' and you'll see come of his freely published musings. 

Re. RDSB, or any share, you'll drive yourself crazy looking at daily swings, or 'how much money you've lost since you invested'. That's day trading, this thread is macro investing i.e. medium-long term. Perhaps think of it like this: what is a reasonable max downside in RDSB? 15% (I don't know number from the air)? How long with compounded divis would it take you to stay whole? In three and a bit years you're still ahead on your savings account whilst having skin in the game for huge upside potential. Just my 2c, not criticising in any way.

I second that point CP, that this is a thread about macro investing over a long timeframe. Nothing discussed here should be taken in a day trading context

[Democorruptcy]

Gambling coming under the governbankment spotlight, anything that's doing well has to be punished! Maybe they would prefer the money going towards mortgage payments to banks?

Quote

 

Downing Street has taken control of the upcoming review of gambling legislation, due to be launched within weeks, amid a growing appetite for sweeping reform of the industry from Boris Johnson and his closest advisers.

The Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) is expected to kick off the long-awaited review this autumn but well-placed sources said Boris Johnson and his closest advisers were now steering the plans.

“The PM just sees it as people being exploited and it’s not him,” said one MP with intimate knowledge of discussions within Whitehall.

The Guardian understands that Johnson’s closest adviser Dominic Cummings and Munira Mirza – director of the No10 policy unit – have both taken a personal interest in a push to overhaul the 2005 Gambling Act.

 

The legislation, introduced under Tony Blair, liberalised regulation of the sector, giving the UK some of the most relaxed gambling laws among major economies.

Figures within Downing Street are understood to be pushing for a wide-ranging review that could involve rolling back large sections of the act, including potential new curbs on advertising.

Some advocates of reform within government are concerned that the DCMS is conflicted over advertising due to the financial contributions gambling makes to both sports teams and broadcasters who have the ear of DCMS officials.

Sports minister Nigel Huddleston is thought to be keen on a wide-ranging review but speaking in the House of Lords last week, another DCMS minister, Lady Barran, appeared sceptical about the dangers of advertising.

“I cannot be specific on the scope of the review, but the evidence is not clear about the link between advertising and problem gambling, particularly among young people,” she said.

One MP with knowledge of DCMS said: “Like any organisation, departments become quite linked in to these industries [such as sport and broadcasting]… They weren’t that keen on changing tobacco advertising back in the day but it happened.”

A DCMS official denied there was any lack of enthusiasm for tackling advertising and insisted the department was working with No 10, rather than being directed by it.

Campaigners for gambling reform have emerged from across the political spectrum, coalescing around the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on gambling harm led by Labour MP Carolyn Harris, former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and the SNP’s Ronnie Cowan.

The cross-party momentum has also spilled over into the House of Lords, with the foundation this weekend of a group called the Peers for Gambling Reform. The group of more than 150 peers has demanded “urgent action” based on the findings of a Lords select committee report published earlier this year.

Chaired by Lord Foster of Bath, the group wants measures such as strict affordability checks on gamblers and a duty of care on firms to prevent harm, potentially exposing them to legal consequences where they fail to protect vulnerable people.

The group wants to see stake limits and restrictions on the speed at which online casino games can be played, as well as a testing regime to measure the risks attached to new gambling products.

“Given that we have a third of a million problem gamblers, including 55,000 children, and one gambling-related suicide every day, action is urgently needed,” said Lord Foster.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/20/downing-street-to-spearhead-gambling-reforms-say-insiders

 

 

[Castlevania]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Gambling coming under the governbankment spotlight, anything that's doing well has to be punished! Maybe they would prefer the money going towards mortgage payments to banks?

 

At the same time you have former MP Tom Watson who was very anti gambling taking the Paddy Power silver.

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

At the same time you have former MP Tom Watson who was very anti gambling taking the Paddy Power silver.

Yes, I noticed that! There are clearly two ways for an MP to get their palm crossed with silver after leaving office, directly favour the sector while in office (like Nick Clegg) or pretend to be anti so the sector is prepared to buy you over.

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Shamone said:

I recently started doing 5 half days instead of 3 full and I know I’m more productive. Also suits the employer since I can stay an extra hour or 2. It’s hard manually so they get the best of me.

Shamone that's Interesting. Excuse the following (rant), but i think 'productivity' is one of those measures, along with many other metrics that economists get so wrong, and demonstrates how ineffective economics is, and how it has failed us for so long.

Actually, I fully expect to begin to see reports showing productivity increases next year because of the changes to more efficient (shorter, human-scale) working hours. On a national/corporate scale i think it suits people better.

However, the measure of productivity has been a puzzling topic for years (discussed on here on occasion), due i think to trying to measure human productivity - when really there has been very little since the widescale adoption of the typewriter post war (secretarial typing pool). Ok, the Japanese/production-floor-robots were also good! - but my point is that the human/machine interface can't really be much improved from where we are now. For example, the internet/mobile phone didn't bring the gains predicted, because these are - for most peoples jobs - just work 'adornments', bringing no real advantage to a companies bottom line.

Next we will have driverless lorries and self-checkouts - but removing the human entirely from the equation kinda nullifies the 'human productivity' part of the argument! Similarly this applies to the impending introduction of A.I. and the effect it will have on so-called 'middle-class jobs' like solicitors/medicine. Don't get me wrong, the effect on job numbers will be massive, but in terms of productivity, how will the productivity gains be measured? The 'world of work' changed decades ago. i.e. typist wpm and engineer rivets/hour is easy to measure; but If you cant measure it, does it even exist! (not in a philosophical sense, just wishing economics had a grip on reality!)

[JMD]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I saw you (I think) psot a Lyn Alden versus Hugh Hendry twitter spat and wanted to weigh in at the time but had too much on with kids.

She really is a qulaity commentator. WIth trading you takes your risk but Hugh has been wrong a lot over the last ten years and finally went bullish a three or four yers back and has since closed his funds iirc.Much as he's entertaining wathcing him trying to school Lyn was jsut embarassing.

The twitter thing wasn't me, however i have quandered on here before what Hugh Hendry 'was for'! Hugh Hendry comes across as trying far too hard to be 'cool' (have you seen his skateboarding videos!; though ironically he frequently appears in sweaty t-shirt mode?) a la surfer dude/shock jock. Its sad really and i actually think his recent sudden appearance after several years is more to do with advertising his luxury holiday island retreat chalet business - damn, he's got me doing a free plug for him! 

btw, for fans of Hendry, my 'character assassination' of him is more to do with my desparation of intelligent people (like Hendry) who choose to waste their talents, especially compared to grafters like Lyn Alden.

[JMD]

13 minutes ago, JMD said:

...

 

[DurhamBorn]

 

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/24/the-stalinist-folly-of-the-ban-on-petrol-cars/

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/24/the-stalinist-folly-of-the-ban-on-petrol-cars/

Superb piece.

[feed]

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Shares in William Hill surged over 20% on Friday after a news report by Bloomberg said
the UK bookmaker had been approached by private equity firm Apollo Global Management for a potential acquisition.

William Hill PLC (WMH) 282.70 +65.10    +29.92%

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, feed said:

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Shares in William Hill surged over 20% on Friday after a news report by Bloomberg said
the UK bookmaker had been approached by private equity firm Apollo Global Management for a potential acquisition.

William Hill PLC (WMH) 282.70 +65.10    +29.92%

 

Whats that percentage increase from when we were buying in March ? 300%.

Makes up for 15 20% drawdowns if you get them elsewhere.I actually sold a lot at £1.50 on a double,showing once again selling too early is much more dangerous than buying a little early.

The reason Hills is in the firing line is due to the US.Its going to be huge and they are front running everyone.Playtech and Bet365 are there now as well,but behind.Id expect Playtech to be taken out as well once they offload Tradetech.I think they would go to £10 at some point,but a takeover around £7 would be accepted by me.

[stoobs]

I'm going to take 3 full-time jobs, get myself on the jobs support scheme for each one and get 231% of the normal salary.

What could possibly go wrong?

This time next year Rodney ...

[reformed nice guy]

On the BOE website they publish a range of graphs including this one:

UK instantaneous implied inflation forward curve

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves

Does that suggest that they are expecting 3.5% inflation in 10 years time?(?!?!)

[Castlevania]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Whats that percentage increase from when we were buying in March ? 300%.

Makes up for 15 20% drawdowns if you get them elsewhere.I actually sold a lot at £1.50 on a double,showing once again selling too early is much more dangerous than buying a little early.

The reason Hills is in the firing line is due to the US.Its going to be huge and they are front running everyone.Playtech and Bet365 are there now as well,but behind.Id expect Playtech to be taken out as well once they offload Tradetech.I think they would go to £10 at some point,but a takeover around £7 would be accepted by me.

I paid £0.36 a share in March

I also bought some more at the end of July for around £1.10. This was based solely on following Dave Portnoy on Twitter and seeing how much the American sports gaming companies were valued at. William Hill despite being the market leader in the US was worth less than the likes of Penn Gaming and Draft Kings. Made no sense to me.

 

[Castlevania]

It’s not just Apollo. Caesars have also made an offer for William Hill.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/top-news-william-hill-confirms-buyout-offers-from-apollo-caesars-uy6wi17elzre2e8.html