Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

5 hours ago, feed said:

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Shares in William Hill surged over 20% on Friday after a news report by Bloomberg said
the UK bookmaker had been approached by private equity firm Apollo Global Management for a potential acquisition.

William Hill PLC (WMH) 282.70 +65.10    +29.92%

 

Sold some last week to bring the allocation down to target.  Oh well!  Suppose I should do it again!  I thought that price rise on the alleged basis of the new contract was a bit weak!

[Harley]

4 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

On the BOE website they publish a range of graphs including this one:

UK instantaneous implied inflation forward curve

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves

Does that suggest that they are expecting 3.5% inflation in 10 years time?(?!?!)

That's the most boring and unbelievable chart I've ever seen!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

hattip kaplan

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-may-hit-record-end-054440244.html

(Bloomberg) -- Gold could hit a record before the year-end, aided in part by the risks surrounding the U.S. presidential election, according to Citigroup Inc.

Uncertainty over the contest and delays about the outcome may “be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,” analysts including Aakash Doshi said in a quarterly commodities outlook. The bank’s forecast implies a surge of more than $200 for bullion futures from current levels.

Futures traded at $1,894.20 an ounce on the Comex at 12:36 p.m. in Singapore, with prices losing ground this week on a rising dollar. Most-active prices set a record $2,089.20 on Aug. 7. In addition to the election, Citi is very positive on gold amid low interest rates, saying it’s in the middle of a bull cycle.

 

Much as I like gold, I have to say I could see bitcoin (GBP) basing nicely for a delayed rise.  Delayed because prior to CV it was drawing out a nice head and shoulders (like gold did) but CV smacked it down, but it has now recovered.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

hattip kaplan

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-may-hit-record-end-054440244.html

(Bloomberg) -- Gold could hit a record before the year-end, aided in part by the risks surrounding the U.S. presidential election, according to Citigroup Inc.

Uncertainty over the contest and delays about the outcome may “be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,” analysts including Aakash Doshi said in a quarterly commodities outlook. The bank’s forecast implies a surge of more than $200 for bullion futures from current levels.

Futures traded at $1,894.20 an ounce on the Comex at 12:36 p.m. in Singapore, with prices losing ground this week on a rising dollar. Most-active prices set a record $2,089.20 on Aug. 7. In addition to the election, Citi is very positive on gold amid low interest rates, saying it’s in the middle of a bull cycle.

 

Because let's only mention the electronic version for Wall Street, not the actual worthwhile asset.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

I wonder  how posters see the £ going over the next 2 years relative to other major currencies ?

A fag paper difference if we look at the currencies "cohort" (to use today's lingua franca!) as a whole versus real things like PMs and assets.  Best house in a bad neighborhood for any of them is irrelevant if the whole thing is a sink estate! 

[Noallegiance]

43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Given the things i would do with Rachel McAdams are illegal in most of Christendom you can be assured iv watched it several times.JaJa Ding dong

I liked her until I found out she was a socialist.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

...there is no way to pick bottoms.

I dunno. Once my nose is empty...

[Harley]

..

[supernaut]

26 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Interesting.

To be honest I packed in last year due to Premium Charge but I've never known of a winning exchange account closed down.

I know they have a team working on Premium Charge evasion and that some people have had accounts closed down if they think they are being used to avoid paying it. Do you use Facebook?

No I don't use facebook.

My account was a big net loser. So I had to keep making new deposits,i believe that triggered the investigation. 

I suspect that in the current climate of problem gambling I got lumped into that category, maybe an easy win to show how responsible an operator they are. 

I could be wrong but it seemed that the paddy power side of the business was dealing with me and they didnt like I openly admitted arbitrage and certainly didnt like me using their shops to do it.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well you are talking about 2 different things there. Exchange liquidity is visible, which could be offered by bookies or individual punters. Away from exchanges bookmakers offer prices but then won't take much money at them. I've always thought we should be like Australia where a bookie has to lay an advertised price for a set amount (or used to unless it's changed).

You don't get banned from the Betfair exchange, they just take a bigger cut of your profits via Premium Charge. Lowering your allowable stakes on the Betfair Sportsbook effectively bans you.

Our nanny state just want to pretend to "help" people save a few pennies like with the energy price cap, while they rob them of £'s in other ways.  Looks like our gambling firms will be bought anyway, nicely up on the WH news.

Good point ref australia.When I bet it generally means something to me and I find it annoying that I have to ring up because they won't take my stake,then they won't take my stake.I have ended up giving up on the main bookies.

Betfair works brilliantly,but ref my premium charge,it is effectively a ban even if it isn't technically.If they take 25% of my profits and I take 100% of my losses,it may be ok if you're flipping hundreds of smaller bets but if you bet in lump sums it jsut doesn't work.

There needed to eb more competition I had high hopes for betdaq(if I was ladbrokes I'd have been pushing liquidity through it).Smarkets is becoming viable for my niche.So now I have an alternative.But a proper functioning market shoudl have real compeition imho.

ref your second bit in bold DM absolutely.People are getting screwed left right n centre via QE/doctored inflation + GDP data etc but govt turns the screw on utilities and it's all alright.

Glad you're up on WH.Shame they're going to get taken over.

 

PS you worked a way around the premiuum charge yet?

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

We got a Will Ferrell film on Netflix in it’s place. You’d probably enjoy it if you actually like Eurovision.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7q6Co-nd0lM

Superb movie.

Was it you talking about telecoms the otehr day CV

Just chjecked my list and the value is getting mroe complelling.BT sub £1.TIT -you're getting hands on more for less this week,.

Proximus 25 year low apparently.eeek....feels like gold late 2018 to me.

1 hour ago, AWW said:

I'm sure it will be, but I'd like the money. Believe it or not, I've already had to spend twenty minutes on a pre-interview wokeness test.

I think I mentioned a recent crew matre partner had na interview with NHS and BAE.BAe was all problem solving.NHS was all diversity rights/wokeness.Be prepared.let us know how it goes.

44 minutes ago, Harley said:

Much as I like gold, I have to say I could see bitcoin (GBP) basing nicely for a delayed rise.  Delayed because prior to CV it was drawing out a nice head and shoulders (like gold did) but CV smacked it down, but it has now recovered.

Id love to trade bitcoin but I jsut couldn't sleep at night.

[Democorruptcy]

36 minutes ago, supernaut said:

No I don't use facebook.

My account was a big net loser. So I had to keep making new deposits,i believe that triggered the investigation. 

I suspect that in the current climate of problem gambling I got lumped into that category, maybe an easy win to show how responsible an operator they are. 

I could be wrong but it seemed that the paddy power side of the business was dealing with me and they didnt like I openly admitted arbitrage and certainly didnt like me using their shops to do it.

Sorry I misunderstood what you meant before, I thought you meant you were winning on Betfair and losing the other part of the arbitrage somewhere else. Maybe they have to be as careful now about problem gamblers as much as winning ones. It probably didn't help your cause that you were winning the other part of the arbitrage in their own shops. It doesn't take much to tip a marginal shop into a loser. I know that from having to record every £50 bet per punter in a high street shop and look for a trend! Either way you aren't making them any money, plus being an arber there is no prospect of being a big loser.

I used to arb a bit of in running golf early on and have that to thank the losses on the Betfair side for keeping my Premium Charge lower. I'd regularly lose £10k per event. Sadly the bookies got annoyed about them being the winning side! That was before the bookies online introduced a countdown when placing a bet. Before that you knew the ball was in the hole - free money laying it back on Betfair!

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Good point ref australia.When I bet it generally means something to me and I find it annoying that I have to ring up because they won't take my stake,then they won't take my stake.I have ended up giving up on the main bookies.

Betfair works brilliantly,but ref my premium charge,it is effectively a ban even if it isn't technically.If they take 25% of my profits and I take 100% of my losses,it may be ok if you're flipping hundreds of smaller bets but if you bet in lump sums it jsut doesn't work.

There needed to eb more competition I had high hopes for betdaq(if I was ladbrokes I'd have been pushing liquidity through it).Smarkets is becoming viable for my niche.So now I have an alternative.But a proper functioning market shoudl have real compeition imho.

ref your second bit in bold DM absolutely.People are getting screwed left right n centre via QE/doctored inflation + GDP data etc but govt turns the screw on utilities and it's all alright.

Glad you're up on WH.Shame they're going to get taken over.

Betfair was OK until they went public. Before that punters were important, after that it was just shareholders.

I've actually won more on Betdaq than Betfair, which would shock a few people who know me. The reason why is that Betdaq were slower to introduce an API. Before that it was possible to use the Betfair price movements to arb bets across to Betdaq. Once Betdaq also introduced an API, I wasn't fast enough to beat the machines.

I once nearly came a cropper arbing between the two. There was a famous blip on Betfair where in running they offered 29 on a horse called Voler La Vedette that won. It was a value price as only 3 pre-race with 6 runners. I had £16k+ on it in running at 29 on impulse with a £400k+ green screen if it won! On Betdaq people were asking for 10 on it which was an easy arb if you had 29 but I resisted the temptation with an alarm bell ringing in my mind. Betfair voided my bet and all those at 29 as a technical error but on Betdaq all bets stood, so the 10 arbers lost out big time paying out there, with no 29 winnings on Betair! I should have asked 9 on Betdaq

[supernaut]

I had a very good run and that fact my betfair was down enough to trigger account closure means I know I did make some very good profits with full underlays always my strategy. 

Smarkets in the main very good just now and again dont have the markets I require.

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Betfair was OK until they went public. Before that punters were important, after that it was just shareholders.

I've actually won more on Betdaq than Betfair, which would shock a few people who know me. The reason why is that Betdaq were slower to introduce an API. Before that it was possible to use the Betfair price movements to arb bets across to Betdaq. Once Betdaq also introduced an API, I wasn't fast enough to beat the machines.

I once nearly came a cropper arbing between the two. There was a famous blip on Betfair where in running they offered 29 on a horse called Voler La Vedette that won. It was a value price as only 3 pre-race with 6 runners. I had £16k+ on it in running at 29 on impulse with a £400k+ green screen if it won! On Betdaq people were asking for 10 on it which was an easy arb if you had 29 but I resisted the temptation with an alarm bell ringing in my mind. Betfair voided my bet and all those at 29 as a technical error but on Betdaq all bets stood, so the 10 arbers lost out big time paying out there, with no 29 winnings on Betair! I should have asked 9 on Betdaq

Is there any way to get around the premium thing on Betfair?.I was thinking of closing account and re-opening a new one before it kicks in.I used it to arb when it first came out and luckily those losses arbed elsewhere meant a large red to get through but its nearly cleared now so then will be in premium cross hair.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

.....

Just chjecked my list and the value is getting mroe complelling.BT sub £1.TIT -you're getting hands on more for less this week,.

....

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I

Do you have access to the Tokyo exchange or use another?

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Debt servicing costs in a rising rate environment if not locked long enough at low rates and with easy going loan covenants.

Well, what do you know........

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/premier-oil-seeks-new-covenant-waiver-extension--source-2220507

 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Is there any way to get around the premium thing on Betfair?

Lose enough money so you’re back in the red life to date. 

[lid]

used to be able to beat the 5 sec countdown on betfair back in 2007/2008 by listening to the football on local radio, made me a pretty penny but like anything they cottoned on in the end

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Is there any way to get around the premium thing on Betfair?.I was thinking of closing account and re-opening a new one before it kicks in.I used it to arb when it first came out and luckily those losses arbed elsewhere meant a large red to get through but its nearly cleared now so then will be in premium cross hair.

They have a Premium Charge evasion team that supposedly try to pick up on people who try to use other accounts. I know someone who tried another account then one day he couldn't log in and got a message to say they wanted all the PC he hadn't paid for weeks. He paid because he was doing it for a living and wanted to continue.

I imagine using any of the same name, debit card, DOB, address, PC will easily be spotted. If using a friend's account, if you are both on Facebook it won't help!

[MvR]

Market could be bottoming.  He thinks gold has further to fall, but given political situation in the US, personally I expect it to start to run again soon. 

 

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Id love to trade bitcoin but I jsut couldn't sleep at night.

Easy, look at S&P 500 futures, put your buy/sell points in and sleep soundly 

That is of course until inflation starts with a vengeance, that’s when it detaches.

With the big alts if BTC is stable just work off the MACD look at the below 1 day chart of LINK, the 99 day was my initial buy in point

Then on the weekly chart on the 25 day MACD end buy in point.

LINK should now have a strong rebound providing S&P 500 has bottomed for now and starts a run back up and BTC follows.

 

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Well, what do you know........

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/premier-oil-seeks-new-covenant-waiver-extension--source-2220507

 

isn't that the sort of situation where those with good technical analysis can make serious money?  not for me, but looking at where the share price was if it's got any possibility of getting through immediate problems you'd be looking at 400% up possibly.

[BurntBread]

I'm thinking about telecoms infrastructure, and wondering who the big fibre-optics manufacturers are (in terms of actual cables, rather than switches)? It seems like Furukawa Electric does a lot of this, but HL doesn't list them, so no point in digging more deeply there. Pilkington was swallowed by Nippon Sheet Glass, which also doesn't help. Corning looks interesting, and at least I can buy it. I'm not sure whether it's your area, @Transistor Man?