Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

31 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

!!! to that bottom.

Do you remember 'Wish I could afford one' from ToS? I spent a whole heap of time in 2014 working through his blog and getting to grips with his High Yield Portfolio thoughts.  He was buying RDSB around £25 at the time as part of his High Yield Portfolio.

Learned a lot from that bloke.  That £25 has always stuck in my mind.   Mind boggling where we are now.

http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/p/my-low-charge-portfolio.html?m=0

^ link to his blog for completeness

 

Yes I know him.

You don't have to go that far back for RDSB to be around £25, I think it was around that in 2019. Year high on HL is now 23.48 but I sold at over 24+ last Sept.

[JREWING]

39 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Do you remember 'Wish I could afford one' from ToS? He was buying RDSB around £25 at the time as part of his High Yield Portfolio.

 

Yep, I remember him well, I used to enjoy reading his stuff.

Makes me feel better about my ladder average of 10.225.

£25 seems like fantasy land at the moment...

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

!!! to that bottom.

Do you remember 'Wish I could afford one' from ToS? I spent a whole heap of time in 2014 working through his blog and getting to grips with his High Yield Portfolio thoughts.  He was buying RDSB around £25 at the time as part of his High Yield Portfolio.

Learned a lot from that bloke.  That £25 has always stuck in my mind.   Mind boggling where we are now.

 

 

To look at it from another perspective the yield even on a price of £25 is still more than bank deposit interest. If @DurhamBorn's thesis pans out then the nominal price will return or surpass the previous high.

 

[JREWING]

RDSB or BP.

Current lows, which do you think represents the best value and the oppurtunity for the greater uplift from here. Or from any further low's?

[Heart's Ease]

 @Democorruptcy @sleepwello'nights

Yes - lots to unpack there for me: the £25 had stuck as the 'fair price' in my mind and I wish I'd had the £££ in 2014 to have bought some. I'd have been happy in 2019 to have bought around there too for a long term div payer. 

WICAO was looking for high yield and he will have been picking those dividends up all the way from 2014.  

@panda - to your point - the laddering is key.  Great approach.

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 @Democorruptcy @sleepwello'nights

Yes - lots to unpack there for me: the £25 had stuck as the 'fair price' in my mind and I wish I'd had the £££ in 2014 to have bought some. I'd have been happy in 2019 to have bought around there too for a long term div payer. 

WICAO was looking for high yield and he will have been picking those dividends up all the way from 2014.  

@panda - to your point - the laddering is key.  Great approach.

@Panda hasn't really laddered! He's waited until the covid crash and gone in balls deep. No way has a true ladder approach got him in at an average of 10.225!

[JMD]

44 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

To look at it from another perspective the yield even on a price of £25 is still more than bank deposit interest. If @DurhamBorn's thesis pans out then the nominal price will return or surpass the previous high.

 

Yes, Oil is i think an example of a sector which has had its melt-up moment, and this is what DB spoke about many months back (cant remember exactly when). Maybe telecoms is another sector example. Of course none of this is exact and Oilies may fall further, but in terms of where those stocks might climb back to, i think it also fits with Dave Hunter's prediction of having first a big-fall, then a climb - over the inflation cycle - back to previous highs. I still think we'll get a BK event, but oil and telecoms, might not 'get involved'.

[JREWING]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

@Panda hasn't really laddered! He's waited until the covid crash and gone in balls deep. No way has a true ladder approach got him in at an average of 10.225!

To be fair the old boy has a point....

I've bought in at 10.30, 10.17, 9.98, 9.65 and 9.59.

10.17 was the balls in deep buy...

Now I'm on my way down to the pawn shop with a barrow load of the missus old bits and bobs. See if I can get a few bob to get in at these new low's. I'm not confident...

[leonardratso]

youd be better off down the porn shop.

[JREWING]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

youd be better off down the porn shop.

You ain't seen what I've got in me barrow. Top shelf shit!

[Democorruptcy]

12 minutes ago, Panda said:

To be fair the old boy has a point....

I've bought in at 10.30, 10.17, 9.98, 9.65 and 9.59.

10.17 was the balls in deep buy...

Now I'm on my way down to the pawn shop with a barrow load of the missus old bits and bobs. See if I can get a few bob to get in at these new low's. I'm not confident...

I'm not "old"! Though it probably has aged me a bit looking at my RDSB red figure. I hope the years come back off and aren't permanent!

[JREWING]

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm not "old"! Though it probably has aged me a bit looking at my RDSB red figure. I hope the years come back off and aren't permanent!

To be fair. It's not as bad as I thought it would be today.

If 9 or 2 gets bounced off, well hats a different matter...

[leonardratso]

Beyond meat would have been a goer when i mentioned it earlier in jest - clown world coming up.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Freetrade says 917p on 18 March.

You're right and wrong (see @Democrupcy below), ..me too....I had the recent low in my head when posting

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

still think we'll get a BK event, but oil and telecoms, might not 'get involved'

And I think this is the consideration that you should be making if buying at the moment and/or buying post when the BK strikes.

[DoINeedOne]

Currently noticed #TotalDisaster trending on Twitter, @Cattle Prod and others say watch what they do not what they say 

 

We're going GREEN by 2050 but first we must build some oil pipelines lol

 

[Loki]

Helen should be forced to live without oil-based energy and goods.

[Popuplights]

3 hours ago, Panda said:

Makes me feel better about my ladder average of 10.225.

My average is 14.85.......😢

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Panda said:

To be fair. It's not as bad as I thought it would be today.

If 9 or 2 gets bounced off, well hats a different matter...

Don't think this would happen until a BK moment, but would be pleasantly surprised if it did!

On another note, what's people's thoughts on the utilities such as water, electricity, gas etc...I can't help but think that although they might offer a steady stream of divi/returc, its going to be limited by government regulation...right or wrong?

[JREWING]

1 minute ago, Popuplights said:

My average is 14.85.......😢

I cheated..Lurked here till the lurgy struck. Grew the balls three weeks ago to join in the fun.

And f**king luvin it....

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

My son came home aged 8 or 9 from school, gently encouraging me to find a new line of work, after hearing of the evils of fossil fuels in school. So I had a reasonable chat with him about keeping the lights on during an energy transition. Wasn't buying it, so I told him to take a cold shower, since we have a gas boiler. The penny dropped, very quickly.

wait until hes 14/15 - then the cold showers will be welcome.

[Popuplights]

18 minutes ago, Panda said:

I cheated..Lurked here till the lurgy struck. Grew the balls three weeks ago to join in the fun.

And f**king luvin it....

I have held RDSB for years, better to have an average of sub £15 than £25 !! 

Still hodling !!

[JREWING]

8 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

I have held RDSB for years, better to have an average of sub £15 than £25 !! 

Still hodling !!

18th May 2018 £28 a share...

Anybody averaging under £15 and holding since then is doing pretty well...

Does anybody have an opinion on do you think RDS or BP could cut the divis in Dec. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

!!! to that bottom.

Do you remember 'Wish I could afford one' from ToS? I spent a whole heap of time in 2014 working through his blog and getting to grips with his High Yield Portfolio thoughts.  He was buying RDSB around £25 at the time as part of his High Yield Portfolio.

Learned a lot from that bloke.  That £25 has always stuck in my mind.   Mind boggling where we are now.

http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/p/my-low-charge-portfolio.html?m=0

^ link to his blog for completeness

 

Can’t even imagine the world of shit he’s in right now. Probably has a shrine dedicated to DB to pray for his thesis to be correct. 
 

He’s got nearly a million quid invested IIRC. Poor bastard.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

My son came home aged 8 or 9 from school, gently encouraging me to find a new line of work, after hearing of the evils of fossil fuels in school. So I had a reasonable chat with him about keeping the lights on during an energy transition. Wasn't buying it, so I told him to take a cold shower, since we have a gas boiler. The penny dropped, very quickly.

There’s no greater teacher than skin in the game. Literally in this case.