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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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old peasant proverb
after the storm, he who riseth early and walketh the path of discovery and righteousness, shall collect all the walnuts

Soooo, seeing as I've been on the 'mind altering walnuts with extras' course I had a thought about '7% coupon and zombie companies'
Tyler, he of zerohedge fame (who must not be believed for fear of falling down the rabbit hole) has been warning about the 'zombie banks' since 2007......and yet here we are, still with all the zombie banks, very profitable, very wealthy chiefs at the helm! Yes of course they're all bust but what a business model eh?
What makes folk here think that the same won't happen with other companies with 'too much debt'?
Won't they just become 'too big to fail' 'too important for the eCONomy' or 'my mate works in the government and knows the Federal Reserve or the bitch at the ECB and I know I'm going to get a bail out' and sod the interest rates the plebs are paying, I'm gonna get 'preferential treatment'......
And you 'little plebs' are just going to have to keep paying for it

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2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

old peasant proverb
after the storm, he who riseth early and walketh the path of discovery and righteousness, shall collect all the walnuts

Soooo, seeing as I've been on the 'mind altering walnuts with extras' course I had a thought about '7% coupon and zombie companies'
Tyler, he of zerohedge fame (who must not be believed for fear of falling down the rabbit hole) has been warning about the 'zombie banks' since 2007......and yet here we are, still with all the zombie banks, very profitable, very wealthy chiefs at the helm! Yes of course they're all bust but what a business model eh?
What makes folk here think that the same won't happen with other companies with 'too much debt'?
Won't they just become 'too big to fail' 'too important for the eCONomy' or 'my mate works in the government and knows the Federal Reserve or the bitch at the ECB and I know I'm going to get a bail out' and sod the interest rates the plebs are paying, I'm gonna get 'preferential treatment'......
And you 'little plebs' are just going to have to keep paying for it

If you don't let anything fail, then all your problems become systemic, and eventually the whole system falls over.

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@TinglesI love tech so I'll do a bit of translation here

IOT=Internet of shite

Big data=we're shit at programming and can't control our databases

Cloud computing=somebody elses computer ie. we want your data so we can spy on you on try and sell you crap

Machine learning=the robots are coming to take your jobs

@DoINeedOneI like the gogoro battery swap - that the DBs

In other tech news, I'm looking into a VR headset and a robot who sits on my cock when the need arises....I'll post updates if I find anything useful

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1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

Summary: hydrogen is the only show in town at the heavy end, but it hasn't a snowflake's chance in hell at the light end. What's interesting is where, exactly, the crossover point settles.

Doesn't hydrogen have the advantage of using similar technology engine wise as petrol?

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4 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

If you don't let anything fail, then all your problems become systemic, and eventually the whole system falls over.


Exactamundo!!! I believe the system has failed, hence I live in the woods :ph34r:

Or maybe my brain stopped functioning in the manner designed by the TV algos xD

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31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@jamtomorrow i think thats probably right,hydrogen will likely be used for 20% into the gas grid,heavy duty trucks,but also for industry power,including power for some power stations.Blue hydrogen might prove a bigger winner than people expect.

An interesting contrarian way to look at EV charging is that though its getting very quick,its still say 10 minutes,and that opens up the fact the garage has a captive audience for 10 minutes to flog them something else.Half of margin already comes from the shops in a higher end garage with convenience offerings.Its highly likely this will be pushed higher.

One of the first places to install EV charging points in my parent’s neck of the woods was a petrol station with a greasy spoon style cafe attached. Charge your car, pop in for a cup of tea or a bite to eat.

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4 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Doesn't hydrogen have the advantage of using similar technology engine wise as petrol?

the problem with hydrogen is liquefying it.......a solution already exists for cars in CNG but for some reason it hasn't taken off.....probably some corporate cunts lobbied the government cronies <sigh>

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11 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

@TinglesI love tech so I'll do a bit of translation here

IOT=Internet of shite

Big data=we're shit at programming and can't control our databases

Cloud computing=somebody elses computer ie. we want your data so we can spy on you on try and sell you crap

Machine learning=the robots are coming to take your jobs

@DoINeedOneI like the gogoro battery swap - that the DBs

In other tech news, I'm looking into a VR headset and a robot who sits on my cock when the need arises....I'll post updates if I find anything useful

this help?

iu.jpeg

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40 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Doesn't hydrogen have the advantage of using similar technology engine wise as petrol?

Depends whether it's paired with an ICE or a fuel cell.

Last time I looked into this, best case thermal efficiency of hydrogen in ICE was in the region of 40%, whereas fuel cell stacks are starting to knock on the door of 60%.

1.5x and improving is hard to ignore. Then add the downstream simplifications you get from an electric motor solution (no gearbox, apart from final drive; fewer "fluids" to leak out; reduced servicing). Then add regen (better efficiency, front brakes last longer). 

You'd need a *really* good reason to choose an ICE for hydrogen.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

@jamtomorrow i think thats probably right,hydrogen will likely be used for 20% into the gas grid,heavy duty trucks,but also for industry power,including power for some power stations.Blue hydrogen might prove a bigger winner than people expect.

An interesting contrarian way to look at EV charging is that though its getting very quick,its still say 10 minutes,and that opens up the fact the garage has a captive audience for 10 minutes to flog them something else.Half of margin already comes from the shops in a higher end garage with convenience offerings.Its highly likely this will be pushed higher.

Absolutely - noticeable that garages getting chargepoints are getting hospitality upgrades at the same time. BP garage near us got a Genie point and Subway at the same time.

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5 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

You'd need a *really* good reason to choose an ICE.

I'll chose ICE for a car for a very long time......

Why? Cost, weight and simplicity........

I used to buy lots of new cars and yeah I got a hard on cos they 'smelt nice' and yeah they drove quite good sometimes too :P

BUT the best cars are light of weight!!..........Electricity is good for bikes! not fat, lardy shite cars!! I'm thinking the same of hydrogen too....

Anyway obviously I'm mad so I'll be off to see the nurse for my meds whilst avoiding the thoughts of bombing the Autostrada in a shiny new BMW with xdrive......I CAN see the appeal BUT feckin hell the cost.....and when they go wrong...

Think I'll stick with 3 cylinders....and maybe 'cheap French shite'......thanks

Anyway hydrogen 'to the home' will struggle in Europe methinks, the pipework isn't there, not in France, not sure about Germany......and anyway Europe generates shitloads of cheap electricity ;)

Right I'm off to look for some ebike pron:P

Good day gents! COME ON THE OILIES FOR NEXT WEEK!!!! xD

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Now this bloody thread has me eyeing up Jap import petrol Toyota Surfs... (Don't like modern diesels for long-term buys and petrols are rare as hen's teeth over here because of people jerking off over MPG)

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Just a quick one on the Covid-19 vaccines, I have a friend who works in Medical comms, there are currently ~5 vaccines being trialled that he knows of, and all of them have been trials have been done in 1/5 of the time they would usually take. I.e., they're being completely rushed. He personally doesn't believe the vaccine will work, and also says there's almost no legal way (at least in the UK) that Government or employers could force anyone to be vaccinated.

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@Lokiif you have a depot nearby , copart is fascinating and you can pick up some real bargains IF you're careful and/or know a good bodywork guy......

I found @Bobthebuildera van.......think it needs some new front seats but apparently it has a 6 speed gearbox xD

https://www.copart.co.uk/lot/44397150

Edit christ who's bidding on this ugly POS :o

https://www.copart.co.uk/lot/39562780

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30 minutes ago, Loki said:

Now this bloody thread has me eyeing up Jap import petrol Toyota Surfs... (Don't like modern diesels for long-term buys and petrols are rare as hen's teeth over here because of people jerking off over MPG)

Don't mind diesel, but I'd like to stay away from 2020 era ICEs - far too complex, far too much to go wrong. A modern BEV *or* an old-skool ICE are both "better" in terms of simplicity than a state of the art ICE.

Tbh, my TD5 landy is a bit too far up the complexity scale for my liking. Would much prefer something wuthout a turbo - a 2.5 n/a from early 80's would be perfect. Those things are supposed to be happy running on the scum of oil off the top of a puddle of piss.

Edit to add (and bring this back OT): plug-in hybrids (or "self-charging" EVs) are definitely a sign of the times. The crowning achievement of unnecessary complexity sold to the unsuspecting under the guise of "progress", I expect future generations will look back and wonder how on earth it all happened.

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@5min OCD speculator cheers for that link!

@jamtomorrow i like mid 2000s petrols as with diesel injection pumps being so finely engineered they can be expensive to get sorted. Even though petrol is electronic injection it's generally a case of replacing a faulty sensor so not too bad in parts or labour.

Was driving an old Lister Petter PH2 dumper the other day - now that's a TEOTWAKI diesel engine - no electrics at all xD

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Chewing Grass

@loki & @jamtomorrow I keep cars a long time and always buy new to avoid mechanically abused cars which are all too common these days and hard to spot at 3-5 years old. So bearing all the above factors I wanted something petrol, non-turbo with no touch screens or led headlights but above all interesting and stimulating to drive so ended up with this with a 1.5 litre normally aspirated petrol and just like cars of yore you can see tarmac either side of the engine when you raise the bonnet.

 

20201004_113830s.jpg

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2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Depends whether it's paired with an ICE or a fuel cell.

Last time I looked into this, best case thermal efficiency of hydrogen in ICE was in the region of 40%, whereas fuel cell stacks are starting to knock on the door of 60%.

1.5x and improving is hard to ignore. Then add the downstream simplifications you get from an electric motor solution (no gearbox, apart from final drive; fewer "fluids" to leak out; reduced servicing). Then add regen (better efficiency, front brakes last longer). 

You'd need a *really* good reason to choose an ICE for hydrogen.

Conversion kits for existing cars?

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2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

@loki & @jamtomorrow I keep cars a long time and always buy new to avoid mechanically abused cars which are all too common these days and hard to spot at 3-5 years old. So bearing all the above factors I wanted something petrol, non-turbo with no touch screens or led headlights but above all interesting and stimulating to drive so ended up with this with a 1.5 litre normally aspirated petrol and just like cars of yore you can see tarmac either side of the engine when you raise the bonnet.

 

20201004_113830s.jpg

Jimny?

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3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Absolutely - noticeable that garages getting chargepoints are getting hospitality upgrades at the same time. BP garage near us got a Genie point and Subway at the same time.

Exactly and its a massive point isnt it.People miss that sort of thing but its almost a retailers wet dream.10 minutes to kill charging up.Of course supermarkets will be in on that in a big way and likely things like Mcdonalds etc will be as well but you would think the massive garage chains would have an edge.

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