Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[King Penda]

16 hours ago, janch said:

Until they make BTC easy for the average idiot ie me to buy and use day to day I don't think it'll properly take off. 

I can see the appeal with regard to "store of value" and because there's a finite number of coins it is inflation-proof but I need to be able to pop to Tescos and buy a loaf of bread with it before it's much use to me.

Is it anywhere near this point yet?

It might take off but the powers to be will want to control it they can’t so it won’t.however a real gold backed currency might be an alternative

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

The drum getting louder...

 

Its a 100% certainty at some point in the future.The problem in the UK is that our benefits system is so lucrative half the population would see big welfare cuts with UBI.The other big problem is housing.

[MrXxxx]

Macrovoices podcast on commodities investing this week, some here may find it interesting (https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-podcasts)

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

Recently took an insolvency practitioners eye to my portfolio today and froze a number of holdings (into a "bad bank"), reducing my target number of holdings and thereby upping the target allocation to each of the remaining.  Used that extra to top up RDSB and BP on the basis any cheaper and I could buy a refinery at the next car boot sale!  A bit early as no technical buy signal but hopefully in the zone.  If they fall much from here then the whole world is in trouble (er, which it is!).  Now focussed on laddering into other O&G sector plays in Operations, Integrated, Services and Gas.  Also opened new positions on the sterling versions of GDX and GDXJ.  No need for me to take on additional risk for more alpha with individual stocks.  Trading volumes (liquidity) on these two ETFs not great though, especially compared to the USD versions.

I knew my 'Naughty Corner' idea would catch on!

[Popuplights]

Well I have just transferred  about 9k from an old avc fund held by my wife into a H+L SIPP. I will put it all into our reflation faves. It might be worth something in 10 years!! 

Better than the £217 quid a year annuity😂😂😂

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Macrovoices podcast on commodities investing this week, some here may find it interesting (https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-podcasts)

Just listened to this and its one of the best so far, basically supporting the general consensus on this post. The speaker (Tian Yang) is so lucid and put the whole current financial picture together i.e. its not just for those interested in commods, and at a level that newbies can even follow. My suggestion is to download the supporting slides and read them before is this adds further to your understanding/enjoyment of the podcast....best spent 45 minutes for a long time, or is it confirmation bias?! :-)

[Barnsey]

Dave's melt up now becomes a 2021 event

 

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Dave's melt up now becomes a 2021 event

 

I feel like I'm in a Guinness advert (For those who remember them)

[StrugglingMillennial]

Im starting to think hes just throwing darts at a board whilst wearing a blindfold 😖

[Loki]

I still can't see how all this is conducive to an industrial reflation cycle.

It's part of why I'm mostly in oilies/energy.  Carbon hysteria adding more cost to end price of product, combined with the solar minimum meaning more energy usage worldwide, as well as everything the oil experts on this thread have talked about.

My view is probably considered too macro even to macro fans, but tell me I'm wrong. 

 

 

[Option5]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

I feel like I'm in a Guinness advert (For those who remember them)

More like a Hamlet advert.....

[Barnsey]

Estimated cost of £2-3 billion more than JRS depending on participation

[leonardratso]

sounds like a clusterfuck

[Barnsey]

Expecting a stamp duty holiday extension announcement any day now...

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 29/10/2020 at 00:38, JMD said:

Welcome back YRS, however now you have mentioned RR in your opening post - bad form btw (next you'll be telling me you bought it at 10:42 yesterday morning, ps i don't want to know if you did!)... anyway i guess what I'm getting at is I suppose I'll just have to resign myself to enjoying the ride down along with you!! 

I think i bought them around 11am!

 

i should have known NOT to go ahead as there was signs ...IE probs buying online plus then with the MASSIVE spread!

 

and now they are 70p! well ...well NO SURPRISE there!!!

 

anyway check the chart below out, the day i bought you can now see a tail-SPIKE in the candle ...3 candles back, this is bearish and i would think the 39p LOW will be tested - the info is what i used to used back in the day of spread betting, it used to work quite well if you STUCK to to rules!

 

however on reflection, i think RR is HIGH-RISK ...and though they could go bust, BUT- ! ...I would think GOV steps in to bail them in other words the share-holders get CLEANED OUT!

 

NOW I've SAID the above MAYBE they will be a GOOD INVESTMENT?

 

Anyone care to chime in who knows more about RR?

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Here is the next bunch of liquidity.Just another years welfare printed here.More inflation down the lines.£845billion balance sheet now for the BOE.Roughly printed back the deflation now so its all inflationary from here on in.Im shocked how bad this government is though.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/31/bank-england-inject-100bn-fight-second-wave/

[Popuplights]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

I still can't see how all this is conducive to an industrial reflation cycle.

It's part of why I'm mostly in oilies/energy.  Carbon hysteria adding more cost to end price of product, combined with the solar minimum meaning more energy usage worldwide, as well as everything the oil experts on this thread have talked about.

My view is probably considered too macro even to macro fans, but tell me I'm wrong. 

 

 

I can see you huddled round a brazier made from an old oil drum come the next ice age. Save me a seat.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here is the next bunch of liquidity.Just another years welfare printed here.More inflation down the lines.£845billion balance sheet now for the BOE.Roughly printed back the deflation now so its all inflationary from here on in.Im shocked how bad this government is though.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/31/bank-england-inject-100bn-fight-second-wave/

So 61,000 mostly somewhat premature deaths if you believe the accuracy of that figure and £845 billion that's £13.8 million per death. Do we have a new value for, on average, a Pensioners Life.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Popuplights said:

I can see you huddled round a brazier made from an old oil drum come the next ice age. Save me a seat.

Bring your own mammoth! Don't let our maritime climate fool you - cold records are being set across continents (With their more dramatic shifts between the seasons).  

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

I still can't see how all this is conducive to an industrial reflation cycle.

It's part of why I'm mostly in oilies/energy.  Carbon hysteria adding more cost to end price of product, combined with the solar minimum meaning more energy usage worldwide, as well as everything the oil experts on this thread have talked about.

My view is probably considered too macro even to macro fans, but tell me I'm wrong. 

 

 

Industrial reflation already started Loki.Asia is already underway.Uk has terrible government etc,but inflation will land here and likely be even higher than other countries.Once prices start to increase people order more to chase the rising prices,it feeds itself.

In a dis-inflation the people closest to the consumer gain the margin.In a reflation the people farthest away gain the most.

 

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Industrial reflation already started Loki.Asia is already underway.Uk has terrible government etc,but inflation will land here and likely be even higher than other countries.Once prices start to increase people order more to chase the rising prices,it feeds itself.

In a dis-inflation the people closest to the consumer gain the margin.In a reflation the people farthest away gain the most.

 

Yes, true, China seem to be back up and running. I thought it was more about bring industries back locally though, what about Europe also undergoing a fresh round of lockdowns?  Australia also been under the jackboot worse than here.

No arguments about UK gov, they could have used this to re-open right before whatever Brexit ends up being, and left them to their lockdown.

What stage would you say we are on your timeline roughly?  Or, how long can you see this bollocks dragging on for?  

That last sentence is a great way of summing the basic idea up, thanks

[Green Devil]

9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave's melt up now becomes a 2021 event

 

Is that before or after Corona Crash part 2. I think CC2 might be first. 😂😂

[Barnsey]

9 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Is that before or after Corona Crash part 2. I think CC2 might be first. 😂😂

I do have quite a bit of respect for Dave and understand the way he looks at a wide range of factors, but both the virus rising at an exponential pace again and the lack of a stimulus deal pre election have sideswiped his October/November melt up. Something he was so very certain of in recent weeks. And I'll say it again, his following has risen x4 + in just a few months, so he has a lot of day trader sheep riding on his every convincing word. I don't intend to judge anyone based on their political outlook but pretty much all his frequent likes on Twitter are for right wing political commentators, very obviously pro Trump, so I do wonder if that strongly held opinion which he's happy to reveal indirectly has any sway over his market view.

Now I'm not sure things go down as hard as March at the moment, there is quite a bit of cash on the sidelines. The election result might be clearer than feared providing more certainty (and therefore market gains on anticipation of a stimulus deal) and we might get some very positive vaccine news. But I do think the virus could be at it's worst into year end given lag, possibly far worse than March, offsetting positivity.

As a contrarian he expects things to rebound when sentiment becomes too negative but is slow to recognise the scale of semi predictable negative events, as had financially damaged so many of his followers in March when he failed to get defensive fast enough. It was really quite horrifying to see him continue to say that "it's just a very minor pull back before the melt up" pretty much all the way down whilst someone like Henrik Zeberg (who got and continues to get a lot of flack for his radical contrarian Elliott Wave predictions) absolutely nailed it.

I think @DurhamBornis sensible to suggest his bigger Macro outlook is more reliable than near term calls, but that's not to say we won't see a melt up soon before reality sets in again in 2021 with insolvencies rising on a huge scale.

FWIW, this was just retweeted by Henrik

 

And Raoul Pal (who has a worryingly huge bitcoin consensus following so beware) also looking at a stronger $ ahead

 

[Harley]

IMO, this remains is a traders market (has for quite a while) where you sow your gains away in those specific areas (financial and non-financial assets) signaled by the macro strategists to grow whenever.  Mostly not a hard strategy!  The biggest losers are/will be the ones who hold out for old trends (e.g. tracking) to re-assert themselves.  Many of those trends actually ended quite a while ago (well pre Covid) but some haven't yet noticed the smell.  

[sleepwello'nights]

9 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Is that before or after Corona Crash part 2. I think CC2 might be first. 😂😂

As usual my timing is off. I bought more shares just after the first leg down in mid-March, just before the dramatic fall a week later. I've been prevaricating on whether to sell over the last two months, but haven't sold anything.

I'm not looking forward to what will happen to share prices next week as the impact of lockdown 2 is digested. However my dividend income has fallen so I might as well hold on and wait for the rising tide of inflation. Better than locking in the capital losses and incurring dealing fees on top.

Is there any chance the market may have already priced in the effect of lockdown 2. There were significant drops in prices the last week or two.