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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


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On 16/10/2020 at 12:26, Cattle Prod said:

Must read thread:

or the non Twitters:

As I said a while back, big oil will invest in renewables as it becomes competitive with other o&g projects, and can compete internally for capital. I think Bernard Looney is trying to force this to happen, Pouyanne is letting it happen. He's an interesting guy, and widely respected. Total avoided shale entirely, as they didn't see the value in it. 

I don't know how much of his 10% return is stlll in government subsidy, but these projects are currently competitive. The 2% on renewable borrowing is eye opening to me, explains a lot: this is what the entire ESG movement in the oil industry is about. I've said that the shareholder revolts are real, and the boards are taking it very seriously. This is brass tacks: they can access capital for renewables projects for less than half the cost of oil and gas projects.

It's all about access to capital. Follow the money.

 

image.png.6395fb77705eb1041a2b1d256dbefb75.png

I found the excerpy above intriguing.$100bn dollars per 1mbpd equivalent.It can;t be that expensive surely?

You can certinly say that with that sort of commitment,the big boys must be at the front of the queue....

On 16/10/2020 at 22:11, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Trunp is fully behind a big fiscal stimulus. It may be to get votes but now the shift from Wall Street to Main street is starting. Prob the ripple that will spread through the Western world. Article also states people paying off debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-im-ready-to-sign-a-big-beautiful-stimulus-but-it-doesnt-look-like-many-americans-are-counting-on-it-2020-10-16?mod=home-page

President Donald Trump is ready to sign a “big, beautiful stimulus,” he said during a Thursday night town hall, despite ongoing talks that include skeptics in the Republican-controlled Senate and, earlier in the month, when he said he was done negotiating.

I think the possibility of a Trump win is understated.Even go so far as to say some recent polls would make his current 2.86 look good value.

13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I ran out of patience with Centamin so redeployed that a couple of weeks ago along with some William Hill gains into Harmony; Sibanye; Hochschild; Elderado; Iamgold and uhh Great Panther. At current spot prices they’re all reasonable value in my opinion. 

If you’re willing to look into the cesspit that is AIM Shanta Gold still looks cheap despite solid gains over the year - it’s my largest holding yet I’m unwilling to sell given their low (in my opinion) valuation. Clearly do your own research and don’t take my views as advice as I’m often very wrong.

 

 

Thanks for the heads up CV,I'll have a butchers.IAM gold one of the great underperfomers thus far for me.

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@Cattle Prod i think i speak for everyone when i say how thankful we are to have your superb knowledge of the oil sector on this thread and the way you gladly share that knowledge. The irony is m

Iv had a lot of direct messages lately asking what shares to buy etc and how to position.I simply havent had time to reply to them,and am unable to.Im not a financial advisor and to do it properly you

I was thinking about my China post above, and I noticed that Chinese oil consumption has been rising for 38 years, since 1982. In other words at exactly when disinflation in Western economies began. I

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12 hours ago, Castlevania said:

 

Yeah these two items tie in, in that as long as a country issues debt in it’s own currency then they can’t default. The value of that currency can plunge relative to other currencies but they can always print some more. So Moody’s exercise is pointless. Countries only default when they’ve borrowed in a foreign currency that they have no control over. See the perpetual defaulter Argentina who invariably default on USD denominated borrowings.

I think you're right and worng here CV.

Yes countries that print their own cash can't really ddefault.However,pension funds are pushed by many regulators to only invest in certain ratings of bonds.Down grading leads to rising IR's.

I suppose the bodn ratings would reflect some element of forexr risk but I dont know for sure.

10 hours ago, Wheeler said:

I would imagine he's talking about BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Cameco. 

The following link lists the traded companies I believe. It is very slow to open so give it a minute or two (copied and pasted to save some time)

https://www.miningfeeds.com/uranium-mining-report-all-countries

URANIUM MINING COMPANIES LISTED IN ALL COUNTRIES

Category/Country Filter
           Gold                     Silver                     Copper                         Uranium                     Diamonds                     Coal                     Potash                     Tech Metals                             --Platinum Group                                              -----Palladium                                         -----Platinum                                         -----Rhodium                                                --Lithium                                                     --Rare Earths                                                     --Strategic Minerals                                              -----Vanadium                                         -----Cobalt                                        Base Metals                             --Nickel                                                     --Iron                                                     --Zinc-Lead                                                     --Tungsten-Tin                                    all-countries australia Canada United Kingdom United States of America united-kingdom united-states-of-america All Countries   
 
Basic Data Points
 Ticker   Last Price (native)   Change (native)   Change (%)   Day Low   Day High   52 Week Low   52 Week High   Volume   MC (M CAD$)  
 
Compare
(Show all)
Company   Ticker   Last Price (native)   Change (native)   Change (%)   Day Low   Day High   52 Week Low   52 Week High   Volume   MC (M CAD$)  
  Australia.png  BHP Billiton Ltd. BHP.AX 42.04 0.040 0.10% 42.07 42.33 30.31 42.33 4,028,709 197,087.0
  Australia.png  Rio Tinto Ltd. RIO.AX 106.45 0.600 0.56% 106.80 107.94 69.41 107.99 946,244 163,376.0
  Canada.png  Cameco Corp. CCO.TO 14.04 0.020 0.14% 13.98 14.17 12.31 17.12 403,495 5,564.7
  Canada.png  Uranium Participation Corp. U.TO 4.20 -0.010 -0.24% 4.16 4.21 3.99 5.14 75,527 578.5
  Canada.png  Altius Minerals ALS.TO 12.72 0.390 3.07% 12.80 13.11 10.04 13.93 50,151 561.9
  Canada.png  Fission Uranium Corp. DML.TO 0.70 0.000 0.00% 0.68 0.70 0.59 0.89 82,839 412.4
  United%20States%20of%20America.png  Uranium Energy Corp. UEC 1.36 -0.050 -3.68% 1.31 1.37 1.12 1.89 2,000 298.7
  Canada.png  Antoro Resources ORE.V 0.64 0.040 6.25% 0.60 0.68 0.39 0.85 164,300 144.4
  Canada.png  Starfire Minerals Inc. SFR.V 0.18 -0.015 -8.33% 0.15 0.18 0.06 0.22 129,374 135.0
  Australia.png  Liontown Resources Ltd. LTR.AX 0.11 0.000 0.00% 0.11 0.11 0.02 0.13 2,541,399 127.1
  Australia.png  Berkeley Resources Ltd. BKY.AX 0.35 0.000 0.00% 0.35 0.35 0.14 0.88 1,485 83.1
  Australia.png  Arafura Resources Limited ARU.AX 0.10 0.005 5.00% 0.10 0.11 0.04 0.14 2,983,424 80.8
  Canada.png  Wealth Minerals Ltd. WML.V 0.35 0.150 43.48% 0.33 0.48 0.31 1.05 292,115 66.9
  Australia.png  Deep Yellow Ltd. DYL.AX 0.34 0.000 0.00% 0.34 0.35 0.30 0.58 173,394 66.7
  Canada.png  UEX Corp. UEX.TO 0.17 0.000 0.00% 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.26 486,979 64.8
  Canada.png  Ucore Rare Metals Inc. UCU.V 0.23 -0.025 -10.87% 0.20 0.24 0.09 0.34 170,620 58.0
  Canada.png  Golden Valley Mines Ltd. GZZ.V 0.35 -0.020 -5.71% 0.33 0.34 0.22 0.39 24,100 44.2
  Australia.png  Toro Energy Ltd TOE.AX 0.02 0.000 0.00% 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 494,292 40.0
  Australia.png  A-Cap Resources Ltd. ACB.AX 0.04 -0.002 -5.71% 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 11,000 31.9
  Canada.png  Consolidated Abaddon Resources ABN.V 0.25 0.000 0.00% 0.24 0.25 0.11 0.49 152,190 28.5
  Australia.png  Matrix Metals Ltd. MRX.AX 0.01 0.000 0.00% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 715,250 24.5
  Canada.png  Wind River Resources WRR.V 0.19 -0.005 -2.70% 0.18 0.19 0.05 0.27 162,500 24.0
  Canada.png  Azimut Exploration Inc. AZM.V 0.40 -0.020 -5.00% 0.38 0.38 0.22 0.52 7,000 20.3
  Canada.png  Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. GMX.TO 0.37 0.000 0.00% 0.37 0.38 0.25 0.42 3,400 18.7
  Australia.png  Red Metal Ltd. RDM.AX 0.09 0.000 0.00% 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.14 359,512 17.6
  Australia.png  Encounter Resources Ltd. ENR.AX 0.07 0.001 1.43% 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.12 81,158 17.1
  Australia.png  Adelaide Resources Ltd. ADN.AX 0.02 0.000 0.00% 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 5,755,799 17.0
  Canada.png  Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. PTU.V 0.08 -0.005 -6.67% 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.11 43,258 15.0
  Australia.png  Jindalee Resources Ltd. JRL.AX 0.34 0.065 19.12% 0.40 0.42 0.23 0.45 121,062 13.2
  Canada.png  Pinetree Capital Ltd. PNP.TO 1.53 -0.150 -9.80% 1.29 1.50 1.20 2.29 3,800 12.5
  Canada.png  Quaterra Resources Inc. QTA.V 0.06 0.000 0.00% 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.13 58,000 12.3
  Australia.png  Energy Ventures Ltd. EVE.AX 0.01 0.000 0.00% 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 1,373,946 10.4

I'm genuinely wondering if we're going to see a return to uranium in the next decade.OWuld solve a lot of problems.

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53 minutes ago, Loki said:

Harley I don't understand every single one of your posts (Do my best like xD) but I understand this and the underlying tone of concern! And you're one of the blokes who seems like he would panic last. :ph34r:

No panic, just very unhappy!  Dodge a bullet, as it were, and every other day becomes a bonus.  I've been to hell and can go again because life's been top and nothing comes for free.  Out of fecks.  Just a shame I won't be so young and able this time.  It's going to get shitey, bit by bit, and then chunk by chunk.  Who would have thought we would be here nine months ago.  Boiled frogs.  Chose a coping strategy.  Many available, personal preference. Sure, play the finance stuff, I do, if no nothing else than cover the risk of being wrong, which happens!

PS:  I promise to write something very financial, but, as the traders say, psychology is everything.

Edited by Harley
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Brace!

"Thinking ahead, a service like FedNow, coupled with a directory service with accurate information on 
where to route payments for final distribution to households and businesses, has the potential to solve 
some of the challenges the government faced when distributing pandemic relief payments. Of course, 
creating such a directory and ensuring it is kept up-to-date is complex, and several challenges, including 
data privacy considerations, account information maintenance demands, and business case considerations,
would have to be solved. The Federal Reserve understands the potential value of such a service, and has 
been exploring these issues as it evaluates the features to eventually include in FedNow."

Edited by Barnsey
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2 hours ago, Errol said:

Energy: The most hated asset class in the world -

 

Image

It's incredible.  Whether you are left wing, right wing, pessimist, optimist, green, red, whatever - you HAVE to see that the world runs on cheap energy, and without energy failing a massive fall in population numbers, energy will continue to climb in demand.  You also have to acknowledge that renewables and the like cannot yet replace oil and coal in any meaningful way globally (yes for some countries, not for 7billion people).

I keep thinking we are missing some huge fail in our logic?  Is it planned depopulation?

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17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think the UK is more leveraged than say Europe where various types of PR systems allow disparate groups a voice in parliament.

If you look at the 2005 result.LAbour got a working majority with 35% of the vote.Therein lies the weakenss of FPTP.Ukip polled 4 million votes ,tories got 11.3 million

I know the point your making SP, but hasn't every form of government ended up making the same dreadfull decisions, with all now having a similar looking bunch of ineffective and peculiar leaders at their helms? Has any of these forms of 'representation' made any substantive difference? However, I do think these different chimeras in democracy, whether they be fptp, pr, etc, have been very instructive. I just society is capable of learning from its mistakes. For example, I now term myself a libertarian, despite all my life being negative towards this philosophy - mainly because when the 'facts' change, I change my mind. The new 'facts' I think are significant are the powefull opportunities offered by blockchain technology, including applications like smart contracts, stable coins, etc. These technologies are game changers and make for example concepts like P2P lending look prehistoric.                                                                                                                                                          All this may sound rather utopian, but to be cear I don't think blockchain to be a magic bullit. Instead, I actually fear an increasingly authoritarian state developing over the next few years, with lockdowns and curfews, government by decree, MSM/cross-party consensus, as being perhaps just the start. I think the Psyops have also begun (though I'm pleasantly surprised that the West seem to be as crap and clumsy as the old USSR was about such things). Of course the method is not as blatant as governments telling people what to actually believe, but rather what to (continually) think (or worry) about - Corona, mental health, identity-politics maybe? But so far these distraction/social division techniques appear to be working.                                     Anyway just my collection of rambling thoughts, triggered mainly by the events happening so far this year. Could be way wrong, and I accept it's mostly conjecture (though hope it doesn't sound too ott?). And in any case, perhaps if we are actually heading toward a full monetary collapse by decade end, it might be a good thing for governments to take greater controls in order to prevent violence or even civil wars. But of course, and as always, wrestling those powers back out of the hands of government will then be the problem. And that's why I mention blockchain above, which I think does offer a chink of hope for a very different way of ordering society, along the lines of a small-state libertarian solution. 

Edited by JMD
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3 hours ago, Harley said:

Plenty of dots to join up without going tin foiled.  I don't care if this was all planned or they're just being opportunistic and accelerating things.  The con is on.

Government spending huge amounts (revenue items, not the sort of capital stuff we talk about), Budget cancelled, FSA and BoE out there making enquiries about this and that, IMF allegedly funding/promoting lockdowns, smart money watching this unfold from various sunny climes, banks doing a fair few system upgrades, government clearly taking the proverbial with the stats and creating a climate of fear, plumbing being put in place and tuned to lock stuff down for any reason (Covid today......), unprecedented levels of propaganda and spin, textbook hypernormalisation techniques and other psyops in play, and so on.

Just like my ambush simile, most people are naturally wired to ensure they cannot take the leap and take action.  I've saved the lives of two people who froze on the spot, unable to function.  I survived stuff through repetitive training but am only ever one step away.  Very few have been trained for this.  Even I find it hard despite things and am still shocked when I see things come to pass.  We'll go Swedish alright, Stockholm! 

Just so I've understood Harley, Is the hyper-normalisation term you use from the Adam Curtis documentary?

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Peak thread this last week.

First @Cattle Prod's magna opera.

Then this chart is a bobby-dazzler:

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

a longer term perpsecive voer last few years

image.thumb.png.43d11c685ef129b57d29effe1afabb4e.png

And so is this one:

7 hours ago, Errol said:

Energy: The most hated asset class in the world -

 

Image

Interesting looking at that last one and contemplating how markets work, in terms of what they get right and wrong. Banks - yeah, fair enough. UK, Energy - mis-priced by a cuntry mile.

Top top work folks.

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6 hours ago, wherebee said:


I keep thinking we are missing some huge fail in our logic?  Is it planned depopulation?

A button has been pressed somewhere causing a swing towards a more sustainable future. The knee-jerk reaction is to move out of fossil fuels. A load of the pension providers are doing it as a statement of, "look at us, aren't we great, caring about the future". My work one was  with Nest and I was never happy with them- going to be pretty much a lifestyle 60/40 fund. When they got out of oil, i had to pull it, even if I would lose the employers comtribution (they agree to fund the SIPP in the end). How they didnt even look at the green plans of the likes of BP is beyond me- cleary they pulled it to make a statement.

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10 hours ago, Harley said:

The UK is spending tons but not on investment.  On pacifying groups, on revenue not capital.  I could be charitable and call it Keynesian, but this time it is different.  They cancelled the Budget FFS.  They have no financial plan in the traditional sense.  They know they don't need one.  They are working at another level.  I just hope they are letting speculation rip, like they always do, so the reality becomes a relief and now acceptable.

Doesnt matter Harley,all that matters is the liquidity goes in the system,the market then allocates that liquidity.Your right on the lack of any financial plan,they are simply printing and spending on the state,but thats exactly what we want.We want all that dis-inflation of 40 years printing back.The biggest boom in industrial assets is starting.Asia has started already,massive investment incoming for them.

Of course sterling could be toast.The goverment have been beyond useless so far.I still think the pain in the UK will be on housing and bonds (pensions in 40/60,20/80 type setups)

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11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What's SPR stand for?

I never get tired of the education we're getting in oil,not clogging the thread up at all imho.

I was looking the otehr day quickly in between shifts and was surprised to see BP near £2 but WTI >$40.How do you explain that which at first appears a paradox?

There appears a real disconnect between the two of alte and I keep hearing about the demand side drop,but the evidence appears to be saying it's not there.If you're right CP,then the CHinese have been buying the dips below $40.SOmeone's been buying.

Chart is WTI overlaid by BP

image.thumb.png.0be7a36577db74da0671875fa92fd9ac.png

a longer term perpsecive voer last few years

image.thumb.png.43d11c685ef129b57d29effe1afabb4e.png

Dividend cut would explain those graphs - the share price will keep tracking the oil price, but it's going to be at a lower level to reflect the reduced dividend.

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11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

KGC now rumoured to ebaheading to Londinium lsiting as well.

ANy one know why theyre heading thsi way?

 

Whats annoying is AUY (Yamana) is listed on London as of the 13th but HL and most others don't show it so looking around i saw a few people comment on this, probably be the same for above and wheaton metals on the 1st November

 

A very weak first opening day. No interest from the big boys at all. Volume pitiful !

----------------------------

If it’s listed they will deal in it. Having said that, AUY Isn’t showing on HL . I believe HL currently have technical issue with website which may be more extensive than they’re currently admitting to.

----------------------------

Yamana is also not listed on Lloyds/HBOS.
AJ Bell show it but as a NYSE stock, not on the LSE.
No wonder there have been so few trades, it is near impossible to buy them.

----------------------------

I rang HL this morning (I have an account with them). They said they don't automatically allow trades in every available listing, but if here are quite a few requests for a particular share, they will allow trades,. SO get ringing folks.

----------------------------

IG's advised that Yamana Gold will be set up for leveraged and non leveraged accounts. I've been asked to check back for updates. The London listing has been somewhat underwhelming to say the least.

----------------------------

Reply from HL this morning, lazy....
I am writing further to our previous telephone call.

As discussed, I previously requested for our stock file team to see if we can add Yamana (AUY) to the HL Platform.

Unfortunately, as Yamana Gold Inc. is a Canadian incorporated company and trades with far greater volume on the Toronto listing than the new LSE listing we will continue to trade the Toronto exchange under the ticker YRI and will therefore not be adding the LSE listing to the platform.

I apologise for any inconvenience caused.

I hope this has been of assistance. If you have any other questions, please get back to me.

----------------------------

Reply from AJ Bell.
"Yamana gold appears to be most liquid on the NYSE and as such we would direct our customers to trade on this listing."

I replied saying that the reason that AUY is thinly traded on the LSE is that just about every broker has failed to list it as an LSE stock, and that you cannot buy what is not offered for sale. I also said I regarded this response as lazy and greedy on AJ Bell's behalf.

AJ Bell acted promptly and set up a temporary code for AUY.
If you have an AJ Bell account - 
Do not enter AUY, or you will get NYSE: AUY.
Enter 3388349 and you will get a quote in £ sterling, not US dollars.
Another plus is that there is no purchase tax charged.
I have bought some shares today, and it works - just a £9.95 buying charge.

 

 

 

Edited by DoINeedOne
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9 hours ago, wherebee said:

I keep thinking we are missing some huge fail in our logic?  Is it planned depopulation?

I have thought the same, and you described it better than I did in my own head with "missing some huge fail in our logic".  The pieces don't seem to fit the puzzle anymore, recently.  

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42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The goverment have been beyond useless so far.

Talking of Government needing to get its act together ... anyone else notice this kite being flown this week?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/u-k-plans-new-law-to-unpick-foreign-deals-on-security-grounds

I hope there's something in it. There isn't going to be an industrial-led reflation if Government doesn't provide a bit of muscle.

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Reply from AJ Bell.
"Yamana gold appears to be most liquid on the NYSE and as such we would direct our customers to trade on this listing."

A bit odd as they say you can't buy US stocks direct but CDIs in them.

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oil will go to $200 in the cycle.I hope the stocks in the area stay down a bit yet though,im directing every divi into them now from all of my portfolio.

One beautiful side will be the 11th Nov when a big fat divi lands from BAT Tobacco and goes into the oilies.

The market is selling off all the very inflation hedges at the start of an industrial cycle.Incredible,but my children will be very grateful down the road.

Hi DurhamBorn. Just wondering what your opinion of XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp) is?

I'm a complete newbie to macro strategy and stock picking, having been a believer in passive investing & equity index-tracker funds for many years (at least until I started reading your thread about 3 or 4 years ago).

My thoughts about Exxon are:

1) It's one of the biggest publicly traded oil companies.

2) It is perceived to be American, and therefore I could imagine the US government being more sympathetic towards it than they might be towards other oil companies. US government is a very powerful ally to have. This is just pure guesswork by me though.

3) My interest in Exxon is as a diversifier so that I could get more exposure to oil shares than just RDSB, BP. and REP.

4) One worry I have is that the XOM that is listed on my ISA platform is a CDI, listed as:

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) Comm Stk NPV (CDI)

I'm not entirely sure about the pros & cons of stuff like CDI and ADR. I have a slight worry that they might be higher risk than owning shares directly, if multiple bank failures happened (in the "bust", for example). This gives me a dilemma about whether to invest now, or to wait until the BK/bust (next year?). The downside of waiting could be that maybe the oil stocks might already be bottoming out and could even rise whilst the rest of the market crashes (who knows?!!).
 

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.
 

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13 hours ago, Harley said:

Just a shame I won't be so young and able this time.  It's going to get shitey, bit by bit, and then chunk by chunk.  Who would have thought we would be here nine months ago.  Boiled frogs.

Agree, this is my concern and why I am looking for my ex-UK exit strategy now so that I am there (wherever `there` is) when I am old and lack the strength to fight.

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On 24/06/2020 at 00:27, JMD said:

Interesting Harley, as I am about to do a personal review of etfs/funds/trusts to hold, for my own self identified next-cycle themes/sectors/regions. I'm doing this because I haven't the skills to select a suitable number of individual stocks, so want to use funds to add more diversification. As you have amply shown in previous postings, there are so few 'good' funds out there, and the ones worth owning are in a small minority.

Hi JMD, sorry to bring your post back from the past!

How have you been gettingon with identifying some ETFs and funds to buy in the next cycle? I've been wanting to do something similar for the inflation sectors next cycle I.E. the 'OPTIMISM' sectors, rather than buying individual company shares becasue ETFs and funds sound 'lower maintenance'  than having to keep an eye on dozens of companies for years on end to check they're still being run well etc. I just assume (probably wrongly!) that ETF managers and Fund managers are doing this for you and ditch rubbish companies from their funds. That is a massive and potentially costly assumption so please someone correct me!

From this great thread (many thanks as always to all the regular contributors) the following have come up in the past:

Telecoms:
XSKR - Xtrackers Stoxx Europe 600 Telecommunications UCITS ETF
EXV2 - iShares (BlackRock Asset Management Deutschland) STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications

Energy:
Schroder ISF Global Energy Class Z - Income (GBP) - Fund

Resources:
Ninety One Enhanced Natural Resources Class I - Accumulation (GBP) - Fund
 

What others have a I missed or have people uncovered? I remember stumbilng on an oil companies ETF we could access in the UK containng loads of the big oilies but failed to take a note of it :( [EDIT: It might have been XSER for the oilies. Also see SPOG for Oil and Gas producers ]

Edited by Nicolas Turgeon
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