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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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reformed nice guy

reformed nice guy

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CVG said:

Yep. I always aim for 20% cash. Always ready for an opportunity. Always have a portion of (any) profits off the table.

Same as me. Currently 26% cash but thats due to me putting money into my SIPP without enough ladders to buy at the moment.

Hoping for some drops this week!

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jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted

Wow -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-03/jack-ma-s-ant-group-ipo-suspended-by-shanghai-star-board

The Shanghai leg of Ant Group Co.’s $35 billion offering has been suspended by the Chinese exchange, potentially derailing the world’s biggest initial public offering.

The Shanghai stock exchange will suspend the listing amid changes in the regulatory environment, it said in a statement Tuesday without providing further details.

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted

I remember being 100% cash and I put the whole lot on a horse. At first I was only going to put 50% on and got 14/1 for it. When the price dropped to 10/1 I thought, yes it's going in today so put the other 50% on. It was 30 years ago and  I'm still annoyed I didn't go all in at 14/1 to start with.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted

Current target allocations:

Floor:  70%

. Equity: 25%

. Bonds: 25% (including some NS&I!)

. Hard: 25%

. Cash Equivalents: 25%

Upside: 30%

. Equity: 75%

. Cash Equivalents: 25%

Currently under on equity but over on cash and hards.

Actions:

. Cash to short term (1-5 year) bonds (various currencies)

. Diversify hards into other metals, crypto, ano (searching!)

. Further migrate from ETFs to stocks (but not all)

. Ladder into core industry equities (as watchlists are completed)

. Use the remaining equity allocation for trading

Achievements

. Reviewed and tweaked asset allocation model

. De-risked counterparties

. Developed systematic equity screening approach

. Developed a way of working, finance versus rest of life!

. Prepared macro roadmap with key industries of interest

. Expanded available trading options into derivatives, etc

. Developed a tax efficient model (e.g. dealing with WHT)

. Expanded access to regional markets

. Naughty stepped past mistakes!

. Created a rich array of sources for macro commentary

. Tried to pay back this thread!

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted

An arguably perfect descending triangle completing in price for the US long bonds.  Usually a bearish chart pattern but that's when it's a continuation pattern of an established bearish trend.  Not here given the past bullish run.  Anything could happen.  A break to the downside while possible would be quite odd looking.  But then I had a buy signal on the yield, suggesting possible price falls ahead.  Bet whatever happens, sterling will do the opposite to dent any gains!  Gold has a similar pattern.  Will be really interesting to see, although will be difficult given the election noise/swings we'll have to contend with until say January (when I see some pattern completions).  Maybe equities will give us that "W" while the sector/asset rotation continues on the QT.

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Harley said:

Current target allocations:

Floor:  70%

. Equity: 25%

. Bonds: 25% (including some NS&I!)

. Hard: 25%

. Cash Equivalents: 25%

Upside: 30%

. Equity: 75%

. Cash Equivalents: 25%

Currently under on equity but over on cash and hards.

Actions:

. Cash to short term (1-5 year) bonds (various currencies)

. Diversify hards into other metals, crypto, ano (searching!)

. Further migrate from ETFs to stocks (but not all)

. Ladder into core industry equities (as watchlists are completed)

. Use the remaining equity allocation for trading

Achievements

. Reviewed and tweaked asset allocation model

. De-risked counterparties

. Developed systematic equity screening approach

. Developed a way of working, finance versus rest of life!

. Prepared macro roadmap with key industries of interest

. Expanded available trading options into derivatives, etc

. Developed a tax efficient model (e.g. dealing with WHT)

. Expanded access to regional markets

. Naughty stepped past mistakes!

. Created a rich array of sources for macro commentary

. Tried to pay back this thread!

Interesting Harley, but what does the part in bold mean?...is it do with balancing commodities between the different mining sectors?   

'Diversify hards into other metals, crypto, ano (searching!)'

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted

The R-rate continues to rapidly fall, week-on-week (stats below), yet the UK lock-down is still going ahead... surely this is madness?!... its this type of information - that contradicts the government's own 'follow the science' mantra - yet curiously no media outlet questions it - that screams out to me that there must be other agendas in play here.   

I noticed also that for the first time in many many weeks, last night's BBC 10 o'clock news didn't show the number of daily infections, is that because the daily infection figure has now also begun to fall? 

 

Metro article:-

'The R number is now between 1.1 and 1.3 in the UK, down from 1.2 to 1.4 last week, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said on Friday.

Two weeks ago it was estimated to be between 1.3 and 1.5.'

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/30/uks-coronavirus-r-rate-drops-to-as-low-as-1-1-13509358/

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Popuplights

Popuplights

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, JMD said:

The R-rate continues to rapidly fall, week-on-week (stats below), yet the UK lock-down is still going ahead... surely this is madness?!... its this type of information - that contradicts the government's own 'follow the science' mantra - yet curiously no media outlet questions it - that screams out to me that there must be other agendas in play here.   

I noticed also that for the first time in many many weeks, last night's BBC 10 o'clock news didn't show the number of daily infections, is that because the daily infection figure has now also begun to fall? 

 

Metro article:-

'The R number is now between 1.1 and 1.3 in the UK, down from 1.2 to 1.4 last week, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said on Friday.

Two weeks ago it was estimated to be between 1.3 and 1.5.'

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/30/uks-coronavirus-r-rate-drops-to-as-low-as-1-1-13509358/

The game is up. They have been rumbled....

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Ma2

Ma2

Posted
Posted

William Hill plc is seeking shareholder approval for a recommended cash acquisition by Caesars UK Holdings Ltd, who have offered the following: For each William Hill plc share held: 272p

Current price 272.5

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, JMD said:

Interesting Harley, but what does the part in bold mean?...is it do with balancing commodities between the different mining sectors?   

'Diversify hards into other metals, crypto, ano (searching!)'

I use the Permenant Portfolio (capital protection) for the floor fund and that has 25% gold which I want to diversify away from so I call it hard assets and am looking for things to include.  Yes commodities, where I can own physical (no derivatives in the floor fund please!), but also new boys like crypto and anything else I can think of (e.g. woodland, nicely out of the financial system?).  Finding suitable alternatives is hard.

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jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted

New post up on SEED: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

Edit to add: I love these articles, and await each new one with some excitement. But I also think they're wrong in one important respect. Sure, energy is important. But so is information. It's why the steam chart on my wall is 2D in both enthalpy and entropy. It's why physicists obsess about entropy of black holes. It's why there's more than one law of thermodynamics. For me, it's a work in progress.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

DAX shit 250 pips since 8am CET but currently up +100 off the lows :S

 

market-dead-cat-bounce.jpeg

I expect plenty of zig zags as (some of) the chart patterns I mentioned play out (as the politics, covid, etc play out), and then bang, macro on!

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Bricormortis

Bricormortis

Posted
Posted

Mosaic down 12% yesterday ? Whats all that about ? Might buy a first ladder if I know whats going on there.

OK googled it, dissapointing 3rd quarter results apparently.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Stimulus package will arrive whoever is in power.Fed would prefer fiscal through government but has other levers if needed.

 
Meanwhile back at the ranch...
 
Bank of England set to inject £100bn into faltering UK economy:
 
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-england-november-mpc-meeting-preview-qe-andrew-bailey-uk-interest-rates-000100305.html
 
 
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