Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

For any anybody that owns RMG, last night was the busiest I have seen it for at least 15 years for Christmas Cards.

They have been steadily dropping off for years, it looks as if sending Christmas Cards has made a comeback due to Coronavirus.

The cards are something special like the "postmen" themselves.  Are you a postie, like out there doing the deliveries?  Or maybe in the sorting office?  I luv my posties, even the grumpy sod I get now and then.  And the red van coming up the lane, when it's not in the workshop!  But no time to talk, just a smile, as the "clever" management "scientists" squeeze out the life blood in their disdain of the value of the X-factor.  I hold shares, for as much emotional as financial reasons, and happy to take a hit if it means these great people get a better shake, but so far that's just been a hit.

PS:  Currently debating whether I luv Austrian posties too!  https://uk.investing.com/equities/oesterreich-post?cid=1015197.  Yes, I am a tart/groupie!  Update: Probably not as she seems to have only the one luv - debt (debt ratio x3 of RMG!)

PPS:  I'm trying to post briefer posts but I'm in luv!

[DoINeedOne]

30 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I don't see how songs make money in a future with digital piracy ever wider and faster?

 

My kids haven't bought a record in years and years.  It's all free streaming radio and youtube?

from some notes i had started collecting and researching again i'm not saying its a buy just interesting DOYR

Im happy to post what i find when i have looked probably into it 

 

Hipgnosis Songs Fund buys and owns the rights to certain pieces of music and receives a royalty payment each time they are played on the radio, streamed online, feature in adverts, films, TV programmes or computer games, or are bought on CDs or vinyl.

This helps to fund an attractive stream of dividends and makes the music royalty fund attractive in an environment where dividends are being cut by many companies.

 

A third of Hipgnosis’ revenue comes from streaming royalties, meaning it earns a bit of money every time someone plays one of the songs in its catalogue which include works by Ed Sheeran, Bon Jovi, Beyonce, Stevie Wonder and Journey. Merck Mercuriadis, the founder of Hipgnosis’ investment adviser The Family (Music), says the trust will only buy the rights to successful songs.

The rest of the trust’s income is generated by royalties every time its songs are played in shops, gyms and restaurants, live on stage or on the radio; when they feature in a film, TV show, advert or video game; or when someone buys a record, CD or a digital download containing its music.

 

Another boost to earnings is likely to come from various social media and leisure platforms starting to pay royalties on music consumed through their services. ‘There will be a deal for the true value of songs going forward and a settlement for usage taken place to date,’ explains Mercuriadis. ‘Spotify made a settlement last year, Facebook is this year, Peloton next year, and we expect TikTok will do the same.

 

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

The cards are something special like the "postmen" themselves.  Are you a postie, like out there doing the deliveries?  I luv my posties, even the grumpy sod I get now and then.  And the red van coming up the lane, when it's not in the workshop!  But no time to talk, just a smile, as the "clever" management "scientists" squeeze out the life blood in their disdain of the value of the X-factor.  I hold shares, for as much emotional as financial reasons, and happy to take a hit if it means these great people get a better shake, but so far that's just been a hit.

PS:  Currently debating whether I luv Austrian posties too!  https://uk.investing.com/equities/oesterreich-post?cid=1015197.  Yes, I am a tart/groupie!

I work in a Mail Centre, I used to work on Deliveries when I first started and absolutely hated it.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

There’s a interesting company on the London stock exchange who have been buying up lots of song catalogues 

https://www.hipgnosissongs.com

Ticker SONG

Its one I still want to research pays around a 4% dividend 

but looks interesting 

https://uk.investing.com/equities/hipgnosis-songs

 

[Harley]

Effing quote v edit buttons!

[Democorruptcy]

15 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Dash for assets?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55213529

I am only half joking.

"The sale of song catalogues has become a booming business during the Covid-19 pandemic, with investors seeing music as a relatively stable asset in an otherwise turbulent market. The likes of Blondie, Barry Manilow and the estates of John Lennon and Kurt Cobain have all sold the rights to their music in recent years."

Ziggy saw some stardust in back catalogues:

Quote

 

David Bowie's 'back catalogue bonds' may have started the credit crunch

He’s always been a trendsetter. But could David Bowie have caused the latest fad sweeping the nation  – the credit crunch?

It may sound like a ridiculous question, but it’s not as mad as it seems.

Even when it comes to finances Bowie leads the way – and back in 1997 he did something called “securitisation”.

He thought, “I have a lot of money coming in over the next 10 years from my back catalogue, but I’d rather have the cash now and not have to wait”.

He produced some bits of paper – Bowie Bonds – and said “whoever buys these gets my royalties”.

It meant he no longer had the money coming in but instead had a lot up front.  His investors were guaranteed a good income. It was a good deal all round.

And the banks were catching on to the idea. They thought, “We have billions out there in mortgages which are going to pay us back very slowly. Why don’t we sell those and get the money now?”

So the banks started doing what Bowie had done – in a big way

https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/david-bowies-back-catalogue-bonds-370719

 

 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

There’s a interesting company on the London stock exchange who have been buying up lots of song catalogues 

https://www.hipgnosissongs.com

Ticker SONG

Its one I still want to research pays around a 4% dividend 

but looks interesting 

This was a news item on R4 this morning...about 06.00-06.30.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

from some notes i had started collecting and researching again i'm not saying its a buy just interesting DOYR

Im happy to post what i find when i have looked probably into it 

 

Hipgnosis Songs Fund buys and owns the rights to certain pieces of music and receives a royalty payment each time they are played on the radio, streamed online, feature in adverts, films, TV programmes or computer games, or are bought on CDs or vinyl.

This helps to fund an attractive stream of dividends and makes the music royalty fund attractive in an environment where dividends are being cut by many companies.

 

A third of Hipgnosis’ revenue comes from streaming royalties, meaning it earns a bit of money every time someone plays one of the songs in its catalogue which include works by Ed Sheeran, Bon Jovi, Beyonce, Stevie Wonder and Journey. Merck Mercuriadis, the founder of Hipgnosis’ investment adviser The Family (Music), says the trust will only buy the rights to successful songs.

The rest of the trust’s income is generated by royalties every time its songs are played in shops, gyms and restaurants, live on stage or on the radio; when they feature in a film, TV show, advert or video game; or when someone buys a record, CD or a digital download containing its music.

 

Another boost to earnings is likely to come from various social media and leisure platforms starting to pay royalties on music consumed through their services. ‘There will be a deal for the true value of songs going forward and a settlement for usage taken place to date,’ explains Mercuriadis. ‘Spotify made a settlement last year, Facebook is this year, Peloton next year, and we expect TikTok will do the same.

 

I was in a band in the 80s, we made a couple of records, did not sell that many but a bit of a cult classic. We got offered a sum to sell our rights this year and after a chat decided to take the money. It was a decent amount well more than we ever made from them. We did wonder why this came out of the blue, record companies must be seeing this as the future in terms of royalties / income, etc.

[nirvana]

congrats @Bobthebuilder

 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

congrats @Bobthebuilder

 

I've got that on brown vinyl.

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I've got that on brown vinyl.

Bloody marvellous! I think I have a cognitive dissonance disorder cos I'm a capitalist scumbag making thousands out of the oilies but really I'm a mad anarchist at heart 

 

[nirvana]

I was having a dance after last months portfolio performance

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was in a band in the 80s, we made a couple of records, did not sell that many but a bit of a cult classic. We got offered a sum to sell our rights this year and after a chat decided to take the money. It was a decent amount well more than we ever made from them. We did wonder why this came out of the blue, record companies must be seeing this as the future in terms of royalties / income, etc.

Perhaps they're expecting a big uptick in paid streaming or advertising on streaming sites. I've got Spotify on as I toil at home. I don't pay so get plenty of adverts. Appears to be way more frequent than the official half hour.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Perhaps they're expecting a big uptick in paid streaming or advertising on streaming sites. I've got Spotify on as I toil at home. I don't pay so get plenty of adverts. Appears to be way more frequent than the official half hour.

It was concerns about people getting music for free via the internet, that apparently had Bowie do the securitisation, to make sure if it happened he already had the money.

[JMD]

On 07/12/2020 at 10:22, sancho panza said:

 

@JMD thanks for the heads up. If there are any more oil exploreco's with a decent shout of production you know of, can you psot them if you feel disposeed too.

SP, I want to correct my earlier reply to you. Rockhopper i own, so i confidently recalled their info. However, i also had a few others on a watch list and have just remembered them (i looked into so many at the time) - however, i never persued these because i confess i don't know the industry, and instead was attracted to the oil majors as buy and forget/long-term holds. Obviously i can't vouch for the below companies, but you did ask and i did want to correct my earlier reply... i guess only tullow/premier fall into the high risk category we were discussing. 

Would be interested in your views on any of these if you do look into them further (i am not a very good judge of financials but reliance/saipen look half decent to me). 

Tullow oil/Premier oil - their financials look/are awful

Saipem - i mentioned this one recently

Reliance Industries - Indian conglomerate, but is mainly energy, chemicals, telecoms, so what's not too like!?!

 

Obviously, not investment advise, please dyor... for entertainment purposes only (ie the joke's on me!).

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod the spike in M1 during 2001 was due to the currency component of it.In other words lots of people brought money back into US dollars and accounts.Likely the spike was due to rich Saudis and people with Saudi money getting cash out of there in case sanctions were stuck on straight away etc like happened to Iran.It also adds to the thoughts that people in Saudi knew what was coming.

M1 tends to be money about to be spent,something is going to spike hard i expect.By March it might be velocity,unless BK hits.

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

For any anybody that owns RMG, last night was the busiest I have seen it for at least 15 years for Christmas Cards.

They have been steadily dropping off for years, it looks as if sending Christmas Cards has made a comeback due to Coronavirus.

Brings tears to this contrarians eyes 

[AWW]

8 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I work in a Mail Centre, I used to work on Deliveries when I first started and absolutely hated it.

I managed half a day during summer holidays when I was at school. Take mail from conveyor belt. Put in bag according to postcode. Couldn't take it. Got a cosy little job in B&Q instead.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brings tears to this contrarians eyes 

Card Factory emailed me about Christmas cards today.

Not many signs of life in their share price and a bit of a slump at close today.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Card Factory emailed me about Christmas cards today.

Not many signs of life in their share price and a bit of a slump at close today.

Job for them is to get through until next year.Government shutting them yet letting Tesco sell cards was a disgrace,company should take legal action really.Their shops are really busy again,problem they have is only letting so many into a shop at a time and the extra staff costs.Iv noticed some price increases on the quality cards and that should boost the bottom line in more normal times.They need to get debt down on the balance sheet so cant see any divis for a while.Great comany but last CEO aid out too many special divis while ramping up debt.

What might help them is basket size going up as people buy more in bulk rather than pop in for each card.The worry is as footfall falls on the high street so does their passing trade.

Very difficult year to manage and then the crazy choice of Bozo Boris to shut physical retail in November.

[Democorruptcy]

I mention the Bowie bonds and then the Starman turns up in the news! Nice mark up?

Quote

 

The Royal Mint has released new David Bowie coins as part of its “music legends” collection. One of the coins celebrating the Starman, Life On Mars? and Space Oddity singer was launched into space. The one ounce silver proof coin orbited the Earth’s atmosphere for 45 minutes before safely descending, and is now being offered as a prize via the Royal Mint’s Facebook page.

Prices range from £13 for a brilliant uncirculated £5 coin to a more “out of this world” £72,195 for a UK kilo gold coin in a denomination of £1,000. A maximum of 11 of the £72,195 gold coins will be minted.

A five ounce Bowie gold coin is also available for £11,815, in a maximum mintage of 60 coins

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/david-bowie-coin-royal-mint-b202083.html

 

 

[wherebee]

OK - I've taken 5000 profit off the BP position this morning (US afternoon) as I think the action of Texas against the four 'smokescreen states' (TM) in the Supreme Court is a strong indicator that the fight over the election will start to get pretty fucking real for more people soon, and I think there will be a bit of a sell off or panic.  I wonder how many investors have no idea of the malarkey going in in the smokescreen states and that the election is not settled by any means?

BP had held it's position compared to the other oilies, and taking a 20%+ profit slice after a few months can't be that stupid.  I could be wrong, but someone wise on here said about a hundred pages back 'no one ever went broke by taking profits'

[Nomad]

Hi I have been following this thread over 2 or 3 years with great interest, thank you to all who contribute. 

I am very interested in future house prices in the south of england. Current prices and sales are crazy. If as is being predicted inflation is going to take hold can people envisage even higher house prices? Personally I dont see how as interest rates increase surely they just become more unaffordable? On the other hand I have been expecting house price falls for 20 years and it hasnt happened yet, so why would this time be any different?

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Harley said:

Just a re-post from page 2! 

PS:  Not so sure atm but a reminder of more normal times?

A reminder of more normal times?... Get with the (global reset) program Harley, surely that was our 'old' normal, with the 'new' normal yet to be defined!!

[Green Devil]

49 minutes ago, Nomad said:

Hi I have been following this thread over 2 or 3 years with great interest, thank you to all who contribute. 

I am very interested in future house prices in the south of england. Current prices and sales are crazy. If as is being predicted inflation is going to take hold can people envisage even higher house prices? Personally I dont see how as interest rates increase surely they just become more unaffordable? On the other hand I have been expecting house price falls for 20 years and it hasnt happened yet, so why would this time be any different?

Inflation generally does mean higher prices for assets. However housing has other factors involved, deposits, jobs, salary multiples. Personally I think there will be price creep, that is creeping prices, not booming prices. Interest rates won't rise, they will just keep falling. 

Housing also gets to a point where you look at the figures and say fuck it I'm not paying that for that many years to live in that. I think we're are pretty close to that now in the South.