Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

We haven't talked about the Eurozone much on here as we tend to focus on fed and BoE....until @Cattle Prod mentioned Eurodollars and I had to look them up ,i Thought it was a reference to the currency pair

 

Have you any idea of what that would be if they took German GDP/debt out of the equation? How screwed is the eurozone ref Brexit/banking system/periphery? Have you got a view?

If anyone has some decent analysis,feel free to psot the links.

 

 

George Gammon has done some good vids on Eurodollars.  I don't know if they might be a bit basic for you (They are perfect for me )  He's interviewed Lyn Alden before, she might have some good articles or further info

(Old tweet)

 

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Companies protecting against the yield curve changing.People are packing the front end of the curve because they are expecting the longer term part of the curve to see increasing yields.They plonk at the short end  so they can re-allocate easily later.The irony is the lower the rate at the short end shows people are expecting inflation longer term.

In simple terms they are expecting a lot more stimulus in short order.

Durham born aka The Seer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/10/ecb-adds-another-half-trillion-qe-even-italy-eyes-debt-cancellation/

 

The Brexit position probably helped!

[Loki]

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Durham born aka The Seer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/10/ecb-adds-another-half-trillion-qe-even-italy-eyes-debt-cancellation/

 

The Brexit position probably helped!

That last paragraph! Oof!

Quote

For the time being, the ECB is doomed to keep sinking deeper into this debt trap even though everybody knows that QE has become a disguised monetary bail-out for insolvent states. In other respects it probably has no more economic potency at this juncture than a rain dance.

I'm seeing parallels between that and a rushed never before tried mRNA vaccine for a virus that 99% of people don't die from but the economy was imploded to "Stop the spread"... disguised get out of jail free card for morally bankrupt governments. In other respects it probably has no more medical efficacy at this juncture than a rain dance 

is the best I can do...the thought is there but the words won't come out 

[Noallegiance]

30 minutes ago, Loki said:

That last paragraph! Oof!

I'm seeing parallels between that and a rushed never before tried mRNA vaccine for a virus that 99% of people don't die from but the economy was imploded to "Stop the spread"... disguised get out of jail free card for morally bankrupt governments. In other respects it probably has no more medical efficacy at this juncture than a rain dance 

is the best I can do...the thought is there but the words won't come out 

It really is the most stunning of coincidences......

[Eventually Right]

Anybody want to ask David Hunter something?

[Causeway]

Re the M1/M2 spikes, this bond guy's thesis is that consumers will use the cash to pay down debt when their payment holidays expire. So like Wolf he's in the credit deflation camp.

From his previous videos he's only bond bullish until the BK. I was initially tempted to try to time selling the last of my bonds from the works pension with the BK too, but realised that could be like playing chicken with a juggernaut.

He thinks inflation too, but not quite yet - instead of M2 he uses the "money multiplier" to try to predict this (but tbh he lost me at that point, although his Fred graph seemed to agree).

M2 vs inflation bit cued up - runs for 4 mins.

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Anybody want to ask David Hunter something?

Does he still talk to Peter Lynch 

[Bricormortis]

British Volts factory site will not be Wales...maybe reflecting that Welsh ports are not remotely Brexit ready, and or the Boris Northern agenda.

So its going to Blyth Nothumberland.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autos-electric-britishvolt/uk-startup-britishvolt-picks-site-for-3-5-billion-vehicle-battery-plant-idUKKBN28L00D

( Reading the article it all sounds slightly iffy.)

2.6 Billion factory supporting 3000 jobs eventually.

The firm has raised £10 million and is seeking govt support from a billion fund set up by Boris for Lithium-ion battery production. also looking to do a stock market listing.

Claims the product is 20% plus better than Tesla's.

 

[Sugarlips]

Has anyone considered buying VIX since it’s back down to pre-CoVID levels?

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does he still talk to Peter Lynch 

Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch (born January 19, 1944)^[1] is an American investor, mutual fund manager, and philanthropist. As the manager of the Magellan Fund^[2] at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990, Lynch averaged a 29.2% annual return,^[3] consistently more than double the S&P 500 stock market index and making it the best-performing mutual fund in the world.^[4][5] During his 13 year tenure, assets under management increased from US$18 million to $14 billion.^[6]

A proponent of value investing, Lynch wrote and co-authored a number of books and papers on investing strategies, including One Up on Wall Street, published by Simon & Schuster in 1989, which sold over one million copies.^[7] He coined a number of well known mantras of modern individual investing, such as Invest in what you know and ten bagger. Lynch has been described as a "legend" by the financial media for his performance record.^[6][8]

[Bricormortis]

23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Maybe they noticed that Wales is currently being run by a Maoist tyrant. He'll be sending the Cardiff metropolitan elite () out to work in the valleys in the New Year in grey tunics.

I moved to the Valleys in March ( i have my reasons )  Got to say the Welsh govt are a joke one party state, maybe needs its own thread but just to say dire education at least round here, the worst NHS in UK, now the ports fiasco, Westminsters fault for not  letting them know we are leaving the EU obviously. 

 Wales had a think about how many single tier authorities would be required and came up with 22 single tier  authorities for 4 million people so 22 education authorities ect. 

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Anybody want to ask David Hunter something?

Has he ever thought about leaving Durham?

[geordie_lurch]

I'm putting some stop losses in a lot of my stuff that's gone up over 20% recently to bank some of those profits as cash so I can buy more again in a few weeks / months as it feels to me like we might get some sort of correction soon due to the insanity of that Air BnB ipo etc. NOTE I have nothing to base such decisions on other than my 'gut' instincts etc but I can live with missing some gains as I'm convinced we will get the BK sometime in the next 6 months or so and want to be able to pick up more of the same inflation stocks for 30% off here

From the Telegraph's report on Ait BnB IPO here...

Quote

More money has been raised in IPOs in 2020 than in any year since the financial crash, according to Dealogic, and this year may surpass the 2007 peak. Markets have surged to all-time highs amid monetary stimulus measures and the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine boosting the economic recovery.

I would really appreciate if the BK could wait until I can start next year's ISA allowance though

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

I moved to the Valleys in March ( i have my reasons )  Got to say the Welsh govt are a joke one party state, maybe needs its own thread but just to say dire education at least round here, the worst NHS in UK, now the ports fiasco, Westminsters fault for not  letting them know we are leaving the EU obviously. 

 Wales had a think about how many single tier authorities would be required and came up with 22 single tier  authorities for 4 million people so 22 education authorities ect. 

I'm in Wales and there is a thread here

[Wheeler]

Interview on Crux Investor with David Hunter:

 

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Wheeler said:

Interview on Crux Investor with David Hunter:

 

Great video and the more I try to get my head around all this the following really stood out of David's views

Quote

"You could have a peak to tough decline as much as 80% in the stock market and have it all happen within 3 or 4 months"

I think his call for this to be after 2nd quarter 2021 seems a bit late to me but I have 0.00000000001% of the experience he and most have on here

I still also think at the end of the BK that we will see the new Central Bank Digital Currencies launched as part of their 'rescue packages'
 

[Boon]

Personally I think the Plunge Protection Team will be out in force if we are gonna be retesting the lows again.

[Democorruptcy]

On 08/12/2020 at 09:24, Harley said:

Just a re-post from page 2! 

PS:  Not so sure atm but a reminder of more normal times?

Re that old list of reflation sectors I posted that you revived recently I have a list of "inflation loving shares" but I have absolutely no idea where it came from, might have been in here. All I know is I saved it in June 2019.

ATRI     Atrion Corp
BA.     BAE Systems plc
BP.     BP Plc
CVX     Chevron Corporation
COST     Costco Wholesale Corp
CRH     CRH plc
DGE     Diageo plc
XOM     Exxon Mobil Corp
IFX     Infineon Technologies AG
INTC     Intel Corporation
JNJ     Johnson & Johnson
LIN     Linde Plc
MA     Mastercard Inc
MDT     Medtronic plc
NESN     Nestle Sa
PG     Procter And Gamble Co
RO     Roche Holding AG
RDSB     Royal Dutch Shell Plc B
SMDS     Smith (DS)
ULVR     Unilever plc
UTX     United Technologies Corp
VZ     Verizon Communications Inc
V     Visa Inc
WMT     Walmart Inc

 

[TNS]

I'm just after a decent portfolio that yields 5%+ for the next 10 years, anything else is a bonus. Oil and Telcos so far, hoping for a little pull back to add voda, pharma and potash.

 

Mining recs also welcome!

[geordie_lurch]

If we get a hard Brexit confirmed over the weekend AND maybe if more develops on the Texas lawsuit over the election 'result' AND maybe we hear of the first few deaths from the vaccine in the UK or similar then I think we could get another Black Monday soon

So in the spirit of ToS where I seem to remember people making a call on them I'm going to stick my neck out and call it for this Monday 14h December 2020
 

Have a good weekend all

 

[harp]

19 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Anybody want to ask David Hunter something?

Yeah I do. Can you ask him if his daughter is single? Asking for a friend. Cheers.

[Heart's Ease]

Just checked to see if XOM dividend has arrived in HL and can't see anything yet.  Arrived to Freetrade account this afternoon.  Anyone else got XOM in HL?

[Wheeler]

14 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Just checked to see if XOM dividend has arrived in HL and can't see anything yet.  Arrived to Freetrade account this afternoon.  Anyone else got XOM in HL?

I've just checked and it hasn't arrived in my HL SIPP yet.

[Bobthebuilder]

I am selling some holdings to move into a SSISA at the moment. I can't believe how long it takes for some trades to cash clear, 4 or 5 days is not uncommon before I can move the dosh. Have these platforms got any money?

My shiny new stocks and shares Isa is going to be for a bit of trading fun, might start with HMY.

I have also been impressed with NG and SLA, stable divi payers, might add that to me pension.

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re that old list of reflation sectors I posted that you revived recently I have a list of "inflation loving shares" but I have absolutely no idea where it came from, might have been in here. All I know is I saved it in June 2019.

ATRI     Atrion Corp
BA.     BAE Systems plc
BP.     BP Plc
CVX     Chevron Corporation
COST     Costco Wholesale Corp
CRH     CRH plc
DGE     Diageo plc
XOM     Exxon Mobil Corp
IFX     Infineon Technologies AG
INTC     Intel Corporation
JNJ     Johnson & Johnson
LIN     Linde Plc
MA     Mastercard Inc
MDT     Medtronic plc
NESN     Nestle Sa
PG     Procter And Gamble Co
RO     Roche Holding AG
RDSB     Royal Dutch Shell Plc B
SMDS     Smith (DS)
ULVR     Unilever plc
UTX     United Technologies Corp
VZ     Verizon Communications Inc
V     Visa Inc
WMT     Walmart Inc

 

I plotted about half - not half bad given what we've been through.