Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

5 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

If we get a hard Brexit confirmed over the weekend AND maybe if more develops on the Texas lawsuit over the election 'result' AND maybe we hear of the first few deaths from the vaccine in the UK or similar then I think we could get another Black Monday soon

So in the spirit of ToS where I seem to remember people making a call on them I'm going to stick my neck out and call it for this Monday 14h December 2020
 

Have a good weekend all

 

Laid off Brexit into some USD and USTs just in case but still exposed to sterling and the banks as most value stocks seem quite high short term.

[Loki]

5 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

If we get a hard Brexit confirmed over the weekend AND maybe if more develops on the Texas lawsuit over the election 'result' AND maybe we hear of the first few deaths from the vaccine in the UK or similar then I think we could get another Black Monday soon

So in the spirit of ToS where I seem to remember people making a call on them I'm going to stick my neck out and call it for this Monday 14h December 2020
 

Have a good weekend all

 

Monday 21st for me (If I had to call one for what's left of this month)

 

Pure gut feel

[DurhamBorn]

No deal would probably see quick 5% to 8% down,especially in the 250 but then go higher as market wakes up to the fact it will mean more liquidity.

Sooner or later this will lead to massive bank failures of course,and maybe some insurance ones.That would be interesting insurers of annuities etc going under.

Germany will be thinking France is trying to hit German industry hard for a few fisherman because they will be the big loser from no deal not the UK.

I have a feeling supply chains are breaking down a bit already before Brexit.

[Loki]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have a feeling supply chains are breaking down a bit already before Brexit.

Re: My 2021 Brits

Quote

 

The status of your parcel has changed.

Exception Reason: The package is delayed due to a Eurotunnel traffic disruption. We are adjusting delivery plans as quickly as possible.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have a feeling supply chains are breaking down a bit already before Brexit.

Funnily enough was just going to buy some Aldi red wine for a friend in England. Only 31 of 74 types in stock, dropped to 29 almost straight away.  Worrying times if the booze is drying up!

[Inigo]

Speaking to someone this week who regularly ships container loads of stuff from the far east.  Apparently there are no containers left, they are all in the UK.  Cost has risen from around £1,000 to around £6,000.  Stuff cannot be unloaded at Felixstowe as it is full, with a backlog, ships waiting outside to unload and instead unloading in Zeebrugge.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Worrying times if the booze is drying up!

Make your own and cut out the middleman and the government.

[Inigo]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Funnily enough was just going to buy some Aldi red wine for a friend in England. Only 31 of 74 types in stock, dropped to 29 almost straight away.  Worrying times if the booze is drying up!

Just about to panic buy wine.  I can live without toilet roll.

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, Inigo said:

Just about to panic buy wine.  I can live without toilet roll.

£75 off for 12 bottles costing at least £115, plus postage unless you spend £100 of your own

https://www.nakedwines.com/vcb

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Inigo said:

Speaking to someone this week who regularly ships container loads of stuff from the far east.  Apparently there are no containers left, they are all in the UK.  Cost has risen from around £1,000 to around £6,000.  Stuff cannot be unloaded at Felixstowe as it is full, with a backlog, ships waiting outside to unload and instead unloading in Zeebrugge.

I used to run my own import business,but sold all my stock and packed in around 18 months ago as wanted all the capital out.If now i would have to get to Rotterdam and shuttle to Teesport.Most xmas stock arrives October,but lots locked up late in containers.I know of whole factories stopping for lack of simple things like gaskets,valves etc etc.Lockdown related.

[Sasquatch]

12 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Make your own and cut out the middleman and the government.

Back in the day, my dad made a mean parsnip wine. 

It tasted fine after the 3rd glass.

 

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sooner or later this will lead to massive bank failures of course,and maybe some insurance ones.That would be interesting insurers of annuities etc going under.

Brexit or derivative or..... related?  Why Brexit related?  Agree about supply lines, although more Covid related in my experience when trying to buy kit (managed to get that table saw in the end, nice!).

[Harley]

7 hours ago, TheNickos said:

I'm just after a decent portfolio that yields 5%+ for the next 10 years, anything else is a bonus. Oil and Telcos so far, hoping for a little pull back to add voda, pharma and potash.

 

Mining recs also welcome!

I did the same pre covid but, given my covid experience, have lowered that to 3% for macro bullish value stocks as I look more for total return.  Still hold my high div stocks but many would fail my value criteria, and DBs comment about derivatives and insureres has got me thinking some more.

[Harley]

People going to start blaming all the covid fallout on brexit to cya on the covid mismanagement?  Double bonus for most of the MSM, if anyone is still listening.

[Loki]

Just now, Harley said:

People going to start blaming all the covid fallout on brexit to cya on the covid mismanagement?  Double bonus for most of the MSM.

I'd never have thought it possible but people's idiocy has amazed me for the past 9 months.

[Hunty]

Link MS

If central banks buy $1.3B assets every 60 minutes, how long until they own all the assets?  The idea behind QE is to buy the assets at high prices no-one else will pay using their fiat dollars to keep 'liquidity' in the market.  Is that right?  So if you're a central bank and you can print an infinite amount of fiat, doesn't this eventually end with the FED (or ECB, et. al) owning everything?  

It seems like this program allows people get to the exits and cash out of what would otherwise be a painful re-pricing of assets, but it seems extremely short sighted to me, because the FRN's are debased with all the printing and all the real-world assets are going to end up on the FED's ledger.  Doesn't this end with everyone holding bags of worthless toilet paper and you paying rent to the FED because they own your house, your car, the company you work for?

[Hunty]

Fat fingers

[Harley]

18 hours ago, Wheeler said:

Interview on Crux Investor with David Hunter:

 

 

 

That was really good.  Filled a few gaps I had.  I got a more rounded perspective of the guy and his thoughts rather than just the snippets from his and others posts, interviews to date, etc. 

Most of all, given DBs info, there is clearly plenty of analysis behind all this which does not come out in the interview - which begs the question - how true is that for other commentators who can speak with similar conviction but.....?

Really helped me sharpen up my focus and planning just at a time when Mr Market is being seductive with a great November.  If I chase it now (I'm not yet fully invested) it'll be a liquid trade in a handful of instruments while safe harbouring (least bad place) the rest. 

Regarding safe harbours, even US bonds (long or short?) looking good in the run up to the BK and will their ETFs be safe, especially those who've  lent the holdings to banks(!), etc? 

Commodities look good later but only if not derivative based (PMs) until the BK then best to wait until any derivative unwind?  As DB says, if supplemented with commodity company equities, stay close to the source (i.e, producers) but still expect a hit? 

But key point from the interview - maybe has to be a game of two halves (pre and post BK) as anything bought now for the part 2 inflation will get irrevocable hit in part 1, either on a fundamental basis or as collateral damage as part of margin calls and other rushes for liquidity?  But is that the least bad as will the alternative (cash) be gone in part 1?  As DB says, a hard few months to navigate - a minefield!

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Hunty said:

Link MS

If central banks buy $1.3B assets every 60 minutes, how long until they own all the assets?  The idea behind QE is to buy the assets at high prices no-one else will pay using their fiat dollars to keep 'liquidity' in the market.  Is that right?  So if you're a central bank and you can print an infinite amount of fiat, doesn't this eventually end with the FED (or ECB, et. al) owning everything?  

It seems like this program allows people get to the exits and cash out of what would otherwise be a painful re-pricing of assets, but it seems extremely short sighted to me, because the FRN's are debased with all the printing and all the real-world assets are going to end up on the FED's ledger.  Doesn't this end with everyone holding bags of worthless toilet paper and you paying rent to the FED because they own your house, your car, the company you work for?

"You will own nothing and be happy"!

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

I'd never have thought it possible but people's idiocy has amazed me for the past 9 months.

Indeed 100%.  Idiots, with the rest who aren't being shut down.  It's the 1920s and 193Os all over again.  What arm bands will some of us have to wear this time and for what?  Will they go digital (like in China)?  After all history only rhymes (yeah sure)!  

[jamtomorrow]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

People going to start blaming all the covid fallout on brexit to cya on the covid mismanagement?  Double bonus for most of the MSM, if anyone is still listening.

Or the other way round, hide botched Brexit in botched Covid?

At this point it scarcely matters, the segue will be so seamless punters won't realise it's a new track.

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

People going to start blaming all the covid fallout on brexit to cya on the covid mismanagement?  Double bonus for most of the MSM, if anyone is still listening.

Timing was very favourable for some, China vs India economy, US elections and Brexit.
 

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Indeed 100%.  Idiots, with the rest who aren't being shut down.  It's the 1920s and 193Os all over again.  What arm bands will some of us have to wear this time and for what?  Will they go digital (like in China)?  After all history only rhymes (yeah sure)!  

Digital blockchain currency is inevitable. 
 

https://www.weforum.org/whitepapers/bridging-the-governance-gap-dispute-resolution-for-blockchain-based-transactions

[Green Devil]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

That was really good.  Filled a few gaps I had.  I got a more rounded perspective of the guy and his thoughts rather than just the snippets from his and others posts, interviews to date, etc. 

Most of all, given DBs info, there is clearly plenty of analysis behind all this which does not come out in the interview - which begs the question - how true is that for other commentators who can speak with similar conviction but.....?

Really helped me sharpen up my focus and planning just at a time when Mr Market is being seductive with a great November.  If I chase it now (I'm not yet fully invested) it'll be a liquid trade in a handful of instruments while safe harbouring (least bad place) the rest. 

Regarding safe harbours, even US bonds (long or short?) looking good in the run up to the BK and will their ETFs be safe, especially those who've  lent the holdings to banks(!), etc? 

Commodities look good later but only if not derivative based (PMs) until the BK then best to wait until any derivative unwind?  As DB says, if supplemented with commodity company equities, stay close to the source (i.e, producers) but still expect a hit? 

But key point from the interview - maybe has to be a game of two halves (pre and post BK) as anything bought now for the part 2 inflation will get irrevocable hit in part 1, either on a fundamental basis or as collateral damage as part of margin calls and other rushes for liquidity?  But is that the least bad as will the alternative (cash) be gone in part 1?  As DB says, a hard few months to navigate - a minefield!

😂

80% crash in the stock market next year? 

Inflation 20%, interest rates 15%.

Come on... I could see inflation at 20%, but the rest is pure fantasy. 

[Wheeler]

From Reuters:

 

In boost to climate action, Britain to stop backing overseas oil and gas projects

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will pledge to end direct government support for overseas fossil fuel projects at a U.N. summit on Saturday, aiming to spur similar moves by other countries to help tackle climate change, his office said.

...

The government said the new policy would come into effect “as soon as possible” and would mean no further state support for oil, natural gas or coal projects overseas, including via development aid, export finance and trade promotion.

There would be “very limited exceptions” for gas-fired power plants within “strict parameters” in line with the Paris deal, the statement said.