Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[harp]

 

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

How comes all Uraniam shares are up . Cameco which is was looking to buy is up 20%

uranium

 

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

With BP watch their Russian stakes.If they hold them then they are playing to the gallery.Big oil likes to build relationships,and they might want to build one with Thailands state energy company.Green energy will be a bubble,but big oil knows the real danger is nuclear.They are happy to keep the world looking at windmills and solar,they can profit from that themselves while keeping nuclear away from the base load.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cameco-uranium-stocks-soar-after-bofa-predicts-jump-global-uranium-demand

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

With BP watch their Russian stakes.If they hold them then they are playing to the gallery.Big oil likes to build relationships,and they might want to build one with Thailands state energy company.Green energy will be a bubble,but big oil knows the real danger is nuclear.They are happy to keep the world looking at windmills and solar,they can profit from that themselves while keeping nuclear away from the base load.

There's one here looking for some investment:

 

Quote

 

Britain’s unaffordable nuclear power plans collapse, one by one

Times 31st Jan 2021, Nuclear winter for Britain as power plants close. Hinkley Point is last man standing as other power stations are scrapped. Hitachi president Hiroaki Nakanishi had a grand dream when
the Japanese giant paid £696 million for the right to build two nuclear power stations in the UK. “Today starts our 100-year commitment to the UK and its vision to achieve a long-term, secure, low- carbon and affordable energy supply,” declared Nakanishi in 2012, as he signed a deal to buy the Horizon nuclear project from Germany’s RWE and Eon.

 

Nakanishi’s plan was to use the UK as a shop window for its reactors, installing them at Wylfa on Anglesey in north Wales and Oldbury-on-Severn in south Gloucestershire. Wylfa would provide enough power to supply the whole of Wales. Together, the two sites could power about 10 million homes.

 

Last week, that bold vision lay in tatters as Hitachi pulled down the shutters on Horizon, which it will wind up by the end of March. It has cancelled its application for a development consent order — a formal process needed to secure planning permission — for the £20 billion Wylfa Newydd plant, despite having spent £2 billion exploring every aspect of the project, from the rock strata on the island to the location of Roman ruins.

 

British Gas parent <insert name> scrapped plans to invest in new nuclear power in 2013and for the past few years has been trying to sell its 20 per cent stake in the existing fleet of British Energy plants. Russian and Canadian operators have also abandoned attempts to build reactors in this country.

 

Another planned EDF plant, at Sizewell in Suffolk, has been given encouragement by the government, but EDF faces years of negotiations with ministers over the financial structure of a deal.

 

CGN hopes to install its home-grown reactor, the Hualong One, at Bradwell-on-Sea in Essex, but must overcome opposition from Tory MPs and the United States.

 

The biggest obstacles to nuclear have always been cost and risk. The retreat of Hitachi and Toshiba showed that only governments dare take the risk of building nuclear stations —
particularly when they are the first of a new design. Treason May’s government eventually offered to take a third of the equity in Horizon alongside the Japanese government and Hitachi. Boris Johnson’s administration is exploring a new financial model, the regulated asset base, where investors could earn a return during construction.

 

All that was too late for Horizon, led by Duncan Hawthorne. In a letter to the unions
that had begged Hitachi to grant the project a reprieve, executive Toshikazu Nishino said that it had not received adequate backing from government.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nuclear-winter-for-britain-as-power-plants-close-gb8c5dx07

 

https://antinuclear.net/2021/01/31/britains-unaffordable-nuclear-power-plans-collapse-one-by-one/

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I rotated options in SIL (expensive now) into to options in XLE (cheap now). My oil stock allocations are full and won't be touched for years, so I play around with options to keep me away from mischief with my long term holdings. XLE is dominated by XOM and Chevron, look cheap at the moment. Most big oilies have almost completed a .382 fibb retrace of the whole move, that's all it is. Leads and lags - stocks will lag oil as it runs up, like in 2007, as investors keep thinking oil is going to fall back and they try and front run it. Then when oil doesn't pull back as much as they thought, they rush to catch up. This is much of the stairstep pattern you see in stocks that correlate with commodities I think.

I wish BP would halt paying off debt and buy back shares.One thing that really annoys me with big oil is they pay off debt at the bottom of the cycle,and buy back shares at the top.XLE should go up 40% in the next move up.Im actually tempted to get some Schlum.

[Heart's Ease]

21 minutes ago, harp said:

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cameco-uranium-stocks-soar-after-bofa-predicts-jump-global-uranium-demand

All go!

[arrow]

16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I rotated options in SIL (expensive now) into to options in XLE (cheap now). My oil stock allocations are full and won't be touched for years, so I play around with options to keep me away from mischief with my long term holdings. XLE is dominated by XOM and Chevron, look cheap at the moment. Most big oilies have almost completed a .382 fibb retrace of the whole move, that's all it is. Leads and lags - stocks will lag oil as it runs up, like in 2007, as investors keep thinking oil is going to fall back and they try and front run it. Then when oil doesn't pull back as much as they thought, they rush to catch up. This is much of the stairstep pattern you see in stocks that correlate with commodities I think.

Edit: I just checked Chevron, it just bounced right off the .382 fibb for a slightly higher low. That's one to watch, see if it holds. All sorts of technical traders will have sold that double top. Let's see who's right.

Thanks Cattle Prod, what do you think of the wsj article about a possible merger?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-chevron-ceos-discussed-merger-11612126203?mod=markets_lead_pos12

"The chief executives of Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM +0.00% and Chevron Corp. CVX +1.28% spoke about combining the oil giants after the pandemic shook the world last year, according to people familiar with the talks, testing the waters for what could be one of the largest corporate mergers ever."

 

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I wish BP would halt paying off debt and buy back shares.One thing that really annoys me with big oil is they pay off debt at the bottom of the cycle,and buy back shares at the top.XLE should go up 40% in the next move up.Im actually tempted to get some Schlum.

Maybe they think the debt might be more expensive to roll over because of the climate changers? Some of our MPs were criticising cheap BoE funding for high carbon firms last week.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Maybe they think the debt might be more expensive to roll over because of the climate changers? Some of our MPs were criticising cheap BoE funding for high carbon firms last week.

Yes good point,maybe they think they need to clear rather than roll over and be at the mercy of the woke.

[Castlevania]

I think BP’s problem is that the green bits (BP Lightsource for example) are effectively run as separate companies that borrow independently of the main company.

It would be better if they did all the borrowing as one company. Then you can get around the ESG rules that some pension funds and banks have; state that the money is for something green and then just use it for general corporate purposes.

Edit: looks like most of the green bits are joint ventures; which would explain why they borrow as separate companies.

 

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod do you know who the main players are in Co2 EOR ,enhance oil recovery?.My roadmap says renewables will fail to cover key areas and countries will have to find other ways to reduce carbon.EOR could be big in that.I take it Shlum would be a big gainer?,are there any others of the top of your head to research?.Im going to have to get my skates on in this area as likely the players will run up with oil even before the market wakes up to how we will really lower carbon.

[feed]

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

[Don Coglione]

8 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

Look out, that's what Enron did!

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

well, we just need shell to get into potash now and its nearly the full complement, just buy shell, much easier.

[wherebee]

17 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

maybe the CFO of Shell is watching this thread and making all their investment decisions off the back of DB;s brain?

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Schlum for sure, and Equinor. Equinor have long had the luxury (due to the main shareholder being the Norwegian govt who doesnt hassle then) of doing lots of R&D, some of it crap, some really good. They do experiments on their fields for example, that no one else can do. Sleipner is the first big CCS project in the world I think. Their EOR rates are among the highest in the world. Partly because they don't rush production, unlike the Mexicans for example, but also because theyve pioneered the methods. If you really want to front run it, look up who is funding JIPs joint industry programme in the universities. I'm in some myself, they are active and involving and you get your nose in front of you back the right research. There'll be a "research group" and then "industry sponsors" who pay for it all. I must have a look myself at the EOR and CCS ones, I'm not well up in it at all. I'll keep you posted.

I'm not surprised renewables won't cover whats needed.

Thats really interesting thankyou.Iv been trying to look through the noise to how the energy transition will really play out given where i think growth/inflation is going and there are several areas that could be huge going under the radar of the markets given they arent interested in carbon even though net zero is simply a destination,not one technology.One is natural carbon offsetting,and BP have moved into this.There will be much better ways to play that probably.The other is CCS/EOR.I bought some Schlum tonight with some silver profits.It would be great to understand who might end up big players in this market.Its an area where we might snag some more 5 baggers.

[DurhamBorn]

On the above here is an example.

http://www.alignccus.eu/

Above is a venture between some pretty big hitters in European research etc.The partners page is very telling as @Cattle Prod suggested.

Now clicking through the partners we find Norchem.Norchem is part of HeidelbergCementAG 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/heidelbergcement-npv

Turns out they are looking to use their Co2 alongside Yara as two big CCS projects.

If Europe add big taxes on for external polluters then someone like Heidelberg could clean up if they are capturing their Co2,and of course getting the carbon credits for it.

Now the project is in Norway,so as Cattle Prod said,likely Equinor involved in this as well.

 

Just a bit of cross market work as an example.The road map is saying this is an area that might be going under the radar and likely a big winner.Could a cement company be a big winner? ,yes it could.

So our roadmap and a bit of detective work leads us to this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en

and this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/pr-01-02-2021

Reading the above the tech partner is an Australian company called Calix 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=LH4YYLjDHI72gAbXjq2ACw&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYBiMPP7dQUA5WyUMNYZI1Px6yyQc_Kx1&q=calix+asx&oq=calix+as&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgIIADIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOggIABCxAxCDAToLCC4QsQMQxwEQowI6CAguELEDEIMBOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQguELEDOggILhCxAxCTAlCdCFiFGmCMJWgBcAB4AIABrwGIAZQGkgEDNi4ymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdperABAA&sclient=psy-ab

Tech is kilns for carbon capture,trebled since last March.Maybe we should of put effort in earlier.

Leaving work in two weeks,so im going to spend a lot of time on this area and see if there might be some quality companies to add to the portfolio.

 

 

[Errol]

Atkinsons Bullion has paused trading again - until Tuesday morning! 

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/

Clearly demand is ludicrous and they can't keep up with it or don't have the metal to sell.

 

 

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

[Democorruptcy]

Latest Hussman downdate. He's very worried I can tell. I mean he's always worried but his worry levels seem to be going parabolic now.

Quote

 

The chart below shows how investors were pricing the “good stocks” in the S&P 500 as of January 22. Each line represents a decile (10%) of the S&P 500, ranked by price/revenue ratios. Among the stocks in the top valuation decile at the 2000 market peak, the median drawdown loss by October 2002 was about 80%. Yet many stocks in the broad market were actually reasonably valued from a historical perspective even at the 2000 market peak. In recent weeks, that top valuation decile has eclipsed its 2000 peak. The difference from 2000 is that every other decile just hit the highest level in history as well.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210201/

 

 

 

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Latest Hussman downdate. He's very worried I can tell. I mean he's always worried but his worry levels seem to be going parabolic now.

 

 

Indeed, check out the COVID fear-pabulum at the end 

Quote

That is exactly how this little coronavirus with twice the R0 of the seasonal flu, and a mortality rate that is evidently an order of magnitude higher, will produce utter chaos if containment efforts are not taken seriously.
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., March 1, 2020

Sorry John I don't think that aged as well as you think it did!

The "containment measures" are what fucked everything up, and the survival rate is still 99% no matter how much it's ramped, skewed and misrepresented. 

[Noallegiance]

21 minutes ago, Errol said:

Atkinsons Bullion has paused trading again - until Tuesday morning! 

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/

Clearly demand is ludicrous and they can't keep up with it or don't have the metal to sell.

 

 

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

And yet still the derivative sits under $30.

Clearly fine.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Indeed, check out the COVID fear-pabulum at the end 

Sorry John I don't think that aged as well as you think it did!

The "containment measures" are what fucked everything up, and the survival rate is still 99% no matter how much it's ramped, skewed and misrepresented. 

You were odds-on favourite in my betting, to be the one who also picked up on his covid worries

[Loki]

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

You were odds-on favourite in my betting, to be the one who also picked up on his covid worries

Just doing my job!

[Viceroy]

15 hours ago, spygirl said:

Gold and silver are not money. They are commodities.

I have to agree with you.  I'm the holder of gold coins bought just after the tops in the 80s and 2011 - taught me a lesson.

A long article written in 2012 :

(Armstrong was a trader & dealer in gold in the 70s): https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/writings/2012-2/the-truth-about-gold-why-you-should-buy-it/

So gold has been around a long time. It has been an object of desire. Beyond that, there are no special qualities that render it as money nor does it present any exception to the ups and downs in value as anything else in society. Gold is in plain and simple terms, a commodity... It is a valuable commodity that should be part of any portfolio. Its advantage over real estate or equities is its movability – you can take it with you when it is time to flee...look at gold for what it truly is – a hedge against government – NOT INFLATION! Gold is not even the hedge against fiscal mismanagement of the Fed and its monetization. Its role right now is the hedge against the meltdown of the current monetary system.

So even under a Gold Standard capital flees. Why? Because there is not even one type of a Gold Standard!

The question of whether government would return to some form of gold monetary system, the answer is flat outright NEVER! That would imply they have to stop borrowing money. They would have to eliminate the national debt. ..Officially, it is not in government’s interest to return to gold. They want electronic money so they get all the taxes on every dime you pick-up in a parking lot. That is NOT a statement about gold or its worth, value, or use. Gold I think will be the hedge, but in a private sort of the way to transact almost on a barter system. ..

Gold is a viable part of the portfolio. It will rise to the occasion when the timing is right. The very people accused of keeping it down are the very people who will turn around and send it up as well. This is just about time. Nothing more! When the time is right and people realize that the Governments have no Clothes, look out – there will be a stampede at that time. For now, that still appears headed into 2017.

 

[Mapper]

I have arrived here after coming across ToS and then the original thread.

Having ploughed through (most of) it, I obviously have to thank @DurhamBorn, but also all the other contributors. Thank you.

Really, thank you all.

Can I ask a question?

Top-slicing.

Is it
- taking out the value of your original investment?
- reducing your stake down to the value of your original investment?
- something else?

Any enlightenment, much apprectiated.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the above here is an example.

http://www.alignccus.eu/

Above is a venture between some pretty big hitters in European research etc.The partners page is very telling as @Cattle Prod suggested.

Now clicking through the partners we find Norchem.Norchem is part of HeidelbergCementAG 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/heidelbergcement-npv

Turns out they are looking to use their Co2 alongside Yara as two big CCS projects.

If Europe add big taxes on for external polluters then someone like Heidelberg could clean up if they are capturing their Co2,and of course getting the carbon credits for it.

Now the project is in Norway,so as Cattle Prod said,likely Equinor involved in this as well.

 

Just a bit of cross market work as an example.The road map is saying this is an area that might be going under the radar and likely a big winner.Could a cement company be a big winner? ,yes it could.

So our roadmap and a bit of detective work leads us to this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en

and this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/pr-01-02-2021

Reading the above the tech partner is an Australian company called Calix 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=LH4YYLjDHI72gAbXjq2ACw&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYBiMPP7dQUA5WyUMNYZI1Px6yyQc_Kx1&q=calix+asx&oq=calix+as&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgIIADIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOggIABCxAxCDAToLCC4QsQMQxwEQowI6CAguELEDEIMBOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQguELEDOggILhCxAxCTAlCdCFiFGmCMJWgBcAB4AIABrwGIAZQGkgEDNi4ymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdperABAA&sclient=psy-ab

Tech is kilns for carbon capture,trebled since last March.Maybe we should of put effort in earlier.

Leaving work in two weeks,so im going to spend a lot of time on this area and see if there might be some quality companies to add to the portfolio.

 

 

DB, something tells me we may need to corner the cement industry...!!!... apparently that industry accounts for 6% of global co2 emmisions, so they have big incentive to remedy this I guess.                                                                    Coincidentally Id been looking to research more into carbon capture for a while and few days back @Option5 responded to a question I posted here, suggesting that I should take a look at the Norwegian Northern Light's project. Can't link easily at moment but Google will find site easily. Tbh I was more interested in the project partner Fortum, which is itself i think an interesting energy/renewables/ccs tech company. ...But on reading your above post, the thing is one of the other partners happens to also be Norcem/Heidelberg Cement!! I agree that identifying the companies that currently and successfully (those partnered with big oil?) exploit ccs+eor would be a great investment opportunity. And look forward to further post discussions about this.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, something tells me we may need to corner the cement industry...!!!... apparently that industry accounts for 6% of global co2 emmisions, so they have big incentive to remedy this I guess.                                                                    Coincidentally Id been looking to research more into carbon capture for a while and few days back @Option5 responded to a question I posted here, suggesting that I should take a look at the Norwegian Northern Light's project. Can't link easily at moment but Google will find site easily. Tbh I was more interested in the project partner Fortum, which is itself i think an interesting energy/renewables/ccs tech company. ...But on reading your above post, the thing is one of the other partners happens to also be Norcem/Heidelberg Cement!! I agree that identifying the companies that currently and successfully (those partnered with big oil?) exploit ccs+eor would be a great investment opportunity. And look forward to further post discussions about this.

They create a lot of co2,and that co2 can be used to push out extra oil from the wells.I think the lack of carbon capture and large amounts is why it hasnt been used so far.Looking at the amount cement and also Yara produce,no wonder they are involved.They produce a lot,and if they can get carbon credits for it,suddenly they become the price setter in the sector.