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Argo Blockchain #ARB


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8 hours ago, deathfunk said:

£1 minimum. Don't top slice yet.

A £1 a share price values ARGO at £300 million pounds.

Currently £35million at 12p a share.

I have been looking at a few factors to get a better idea of their NAV:

- how many BTC they mine in a year

- how many BTC they have ‘saved’

- cost of buying their hardware and software ‘mining tools’

- Overheads - essentially electricity 

- Most obviously the price of BTC and its possible future price.

...and so on and so on....

Has anyone else done any analysis and is able to justify a £1 future price target? 
 

I believe it costs them (in terms of all overheads etc) around £2000 for each BTC mined and they mine around 3000 per year? Is that correct? 
 

Back of a fag packet calculations....

3000 x £20,000 per BTC gives a yearly NAV of £60,000,000 (minus £6,000,000 costs) = £54,000,000 a year income.

What would be fair value for ARGO if BTC stayed at £20,000 per BTC? 

Can they continue to mine at 3000 BTC a year? Or is that pre halving? 
 

I am sure there are many more wiser people on here when it comes to BTC and share prices and NAV etc....

@deathfunk @201p @Loki

@goldbug9999

I just had a ‘punt’ as I saw it as a bubble opportunity and ARGO looked a good vehicle to get access to BTC etc.... tbh I still don’t ‘fully’ understand Bitcoin .... but I reckon I understand human psychology and greed and bubbles a little bit... hence the ‘punt’....

Any info greatly appreciated! 
 

 

 

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Just spent my year's LISA allocation on ARB at 5.08p BTC is once again testing the upper line of the pennant formed after the 2017 high. Halving coming in a week or so. ARB SP diverging from BTC.

I'm still here  

Sold up today. No complaints. Got 2.5 x return. Might buy back in at some point. 

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2 hours ago, Vendetta said:

A £1 a share price values ARGO at £300 million pounds.

Currently £35million at 12p a share.

I have been looking at a few factors to get a better idea of their NAV:

- how many BTC they mine in a year

- how many BTC they have ‘saved’

- cost of buying their hardware and software ‘mining tools’

- Overheads - essentially electricity 

- Most obviously the price of BTC and its possible future price.

...and so on and so on....

Has anyone else done any analysis and is able to justify a £1 future price target? 
 

I believe it costs them (in terms of all overheads etc) around £2000 for each BTC mined and they mine around 3000 per year? Is that correct? 
 

Back of a fag packet calculations....

3000 x £20,000 per BTC gives a yearly NAV of £60,000,000 (minus £6,000,000 costs) = £54,000,000 a year income.

What would be fair value for ARGO if BTC stayed at £20,000 per BTC? 

Can they continue to mine at 3000 BTC a year? Or is that pre halving? 
 

I am sure there are many more wiser people on here when it comes to BTC and share prices and NAV etc....

@deathfunk @201p @Loki

@goldbug9999

I just had a ‘punt’ as I saw it as a bubble opportunity and ARGO looked a good vehicle to get access to BTC etc.... tbh I still don’t ‘fully’ understand Bitcoin .... but I reckon I understand human psychology and greed and bubbles a little bit... hence the ‘punt’....

Any info greatly appreciated! 

Riot are already worth $350m and are currently smaller than Argo. London just seems to value Argo at about PE 3. Though to be honest the more I have been investing the more I see that valuations are fairly pointless. All the quick money appears to be in momentum trading. Those guys don't care about valuations.

If Argo dual listed in America they would 5 bag in short order. I have some powder dry for just this eventuality. 

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5 hours ago, Vendetta said:

A £1 a share price values ARGO at £300 million pounds.

Currently £35million at 12p a share.

I have been looking at a few factors to get a better idea of their NAV:

- how many BTC they mine in a year

- how many BTC they have ‘saved’

- cost of buying their hardware and software ‘mining tools’

- Overheads - essentially electricity 

- Most obviously the price of BTC and its possible future price.

...and so on and so on....

Has anyone else done any analysis and is able to justify a £1 future price target? 
 

I believe it costs them (in terms of all overheads etc) around £2000 for each BTC mined and they mine around 3000 per year? Is that correct? 
 

Back of a fag packet calculations....

3000 x £20,000 per BTC gives a yearly NAV of £60,000,000 (minus £6,000,000 costs) = £54,000,000 a year income.

What would be fair value for ARGO if BTC stayed at £20,000 per BTC? 

Can they continue to mine at 3000 BTC a year? Or is that pre halving? 
 

I am sure there are many more wiser people on here when it comes to BTC and share prices and NAV etc....

@deathfunk @201p @Loki

@goldbug9999

I just had a ‘punt’ as I saw it as a bubble opportunity and ARGO looked a good vehicle to get access to BTC etc.... tbh I still don’t ‘fully’ understand Bitcoin .... but I reckon I understand human psychology and greed and bubbles a little bit... hence the ‘punt’....

Any info greatly appreciated! 

The whole argo thing just feels scammy to me. Not very scientific I know but mining is incredibly competitive and commoditised (in as much as everyone uses the same/similar hardware). 

Gross margins tend to be around 40% so I don't believe that there is anyone on the planet able to mine at £2k per BTC.

 

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5 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

The whole argo thing just feels scammy to me. Not very scientific I know but mining is incredibly competitive and commoditised (in as much as everyone uses the same/similar hardware). 

Gross margins tend to be around 40% so I don't believe that there is anyone on the planet able to mine at £2k per BTC.

 

I don’t think that matters. It’s a mania induced bubble - fundamentals don’t matter dontchaknow! 

 

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16 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I don’t think that matters. It’s a mania induced bubble - fundamentals don’t matter dontchaknow! 

In which case argo is another layer of obfuscation and unpredictability (and therefore risk) over and above BTC itself. So I view underlying BTC as a much better risk/reward play. Over the long term BTC has outperformed everything else in the crypto space be that other coins or companies in the space. A trend I can only see accelerating.

Edited by goldbug9999
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5 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

In which case argo is another layer of obfuscation and unpredictability (and therefore risk) over and above BTC itself. So I view underlying BTC as a much better risk/reward play. Over the long term BTC has outperformed everything else in the crypto space be that other coins or companies in the space. A trend I can only see accelerating.


Interestingly....

ARGO has risen 200% since 13th July

BTC has risen 100% since 13th July

 

 

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3 hours ago, Vendetta said:


Interestingly....

ARGO has risen 200% since 13th July

BTC has risen 100% since 13th July

So the same as 2x leverage on BTC (which you could do on etoro among others) which is significantly lower risk.

Also 6 months isn't what I mean by "long term", more like 6 years. I've gotten 30x on my BTC with zero effort (*) and counterparty risk. I expect to repeat that in the next 5 - 10 years.

 

(*) well there has been effort involved in arguing for years with numpties who cant see the point of it.

Edited by goldbug9999
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Payment processing giant PayPal made its way into the crypto-industry after an announcement to support dominant digital currencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Litecoin (LTC). Fast-forward to November, the company announced that "all eligible PayPal account holders in the U.S. can now buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrency directly with PayPal." Most recently, PayPal's Schulman, the CEO, told the public that PayPal users will be able to transact using cryptocurrencies as a funding instrument across 28 million businesses in 2021. "Early next year we're going to allow cryptocurrencies to be a Funding Source for any transaction happening on all 28 million of our merchants and that will significantly bolster the utility of cryptocurrencies"PayPal is the next big thing in CryptoThis will undoubtedly impact the market and take adoption to never-before-seen levels. To give a basic insight to what this means for Crypto, PayPal has over 300 million active users, the company's network is so large that it would be the United States 21st largest bank if it were one. There's no denying that PayPal is trying to break into the growing market of consumers who are flocking to digital payments and digital forms of currencies. PayPal is convinced that Bitcoin is already on the verge of mainstream adoption; a conviction that many incoming institutions share."As paper money slowly dissipates and disappears from how people are using transactions, central banks, especially on the retail side, will need to replace paper money with forms of digital fiat currency,"2020 was the introduction of many different institutions to the world of cryptocurrency. Traditional investors hopped in, billionaires didn't look too far in their search for an alternative asset to hedge against inflation, they bought into Bitcoin. Defi also carved a niche for itself in the industry and very soon, Ethereum's widely anticipated upgrade will make its way in the industry, it is, therefore, safe to say that 2020 was a big year for Bitcoin and the entire industry of cryptocurrency and blockchain.The following year could potentially become the defining curve for the industry as crypto-users will be able to use Bitcoin on many new different platforms. PayPal, like most other fintech companies that announced their interest in cryptocurrency this year will bolster a wider use of crypto. Surely, these big guys are changing the game, but a commonly asked question is how much and how fast.A handful of analytic predictions point to a possible "change in market dynamics," but this is already happening. The bull run is said to be a product of the accumulated buying activities. Apparently, buying pressure led to a shortage of coins and has influenced the pre-set supply of BTC and its current price.

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20 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

The whole argo thing just feels scammy to me. Not very scientific I know but mining is incredibly competitive and commoditised (in as much as everyone uses the same/similar hardware). 

Gross margins tend to be around 40% so I don't believe that there is anyone on the planet able to mine at £2k per BTC.

 

Argo breakeven price is around $6-7k. They also mine ZEC (5% of world hashrate).

What Argo really need is to list in the US with Riot and Mara. Both these companies mine less than Argo yet are worth several multiples of them. The London market is simply a graveyard for this type of stock. As you suggest elsewhere there is no point in owning a share that is a proxy for bitcoin. I have a spread betting account if I want this. I own crypto stock because I want it to compound any growth in the underlying assets.

I bang this drum every week on LSE. Dual listing dual listing dual listing.

It has taught me to (largely) avoid the London market in future. It is too small and feeble to achieve the kind of momentum I am looking for in most instances. Why make it hard for myself?

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What makes cryto mining more risky than say gold mining is that the cost of mining is not fixed because of difficulty adjustment algorithms in proof-of-work. It is therefore dependent on your share of the global hashing power which could change at any time if your competitors gain access to cheaper electricity or more efficient mining hardware, or just the entry into the market of a big new player.

Edited by goldbug9999
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