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spunko

Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 5

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@Mental Floss I have cut and pasted your response from the previous thread.

  44 minutes ago, billfunk said:

No. Once again for the slow ones at the back. Brexit is inevitable because one of two things will happen:

1. Failure to Brexit leads to the 52% forming the Mother of all block votes (think the Welsh and Northern anti-Thatcher block vote in play 1980s to 2016 multiplied by 3).

2. In the event that democracy is somehow repressed in the medium term, the dodgy, unbalanced EU debt-based money system will go kaput leading to political fragmentation. Someone here posted the Target2 figures.

Either way you look at it, Brexit is a baked in certainty. The current panto is great entertainment though. Not really needed this week with the Test Match being on, but good fun anyway.

No, not having that I'm afraid

1) Is not a certain outcome. Evidence points to party loyalty being the primary concern above almost everything else including good sense in many areas of the country. Assuming that the leave vote is homogeneous and will align behind a  scenario where "no deal" is the most likely outcome given the assault the media has orchestrated against such possibility is highly optimistic. Especially when some of the key actors (Farage and Johnson) are politically toxic in areas they would need to carry to make this work. 

2) One of the reasons I voted leave was to avoid being dragged down in such a scenario. There's scant consolation in the EU ending in a continent wide conflagration that burns us all. We had a once in a generation chance to leave peacefully and on reasonable terms. That opportunity has been utterly squandered and made impossible by politicians in the U.K. that simply  won't accept that they lost a vote.

Warner getting out was fun, now we're in to the meat of the matter. Can we get Smith out?

 

1. Party loyalty is dead. Old Labour voters feel betrayed by the Islington set. Tory Brexiteers will feel betrayed if they don't get Brexit. Most will form the new block vote and all future Parliament's will be dominated by it.

2. I am not suggesting the EU collapse will be consolation, I am saying that will be Brexit. It will collapse, inevitably, and we will then leave

Looking fairly flat now at OT. That's why they call it Test cricket, not Facile cricket.

Edited by billfunk

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5 minutes ago, Bedrag Justesen said:

#Cherrycase appeal.

 

They effectively have until the end of the period of prorogation to get this sorted to have an immediate practical impact. Presumably if this is found to be unconstitutional before prorogation then it won't occur and if it is found to be unconstitutional during the period of prorogation then it would have to be curtailed. Either way it is eating in to time. We are in a right mess if prorogation happens, we leave the EU and then the judiciary finds that shutting down parliament was unconstitutional - what the hell would happen then? I find it hard to believe that they will get the courts to intervene here but in the meantime it is quite easy to say that the judge has erred in law isn't it. It is the classic line.

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Bigger Tory rebellion than I expected and all 20 of them now have lost the whip. If Boris stays as Tory leader and we get an election (big ifs I know) then that’s at least 20 cunts we’ll never have to listen to again. Silver lining and all!

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19 minutes ago, Bedrag Justesen said:

He did.

What is Laura Kuenssberg seeing that's different to Brambell's position last night ?

BBC anti-Brambell bias ?

 

Laura made some snide comments about depending on how much wine was druuuuuuuunk

Edited by sarahbell

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Most of this is an attempt by Boris to frame the narrative so that it looks like barmy Remoaners are forcing him to call an election. He doesn't want to look like May did, calling an unnecessary election to boost his own power, even though this is exactly what he wants.  If it fails, like it did for May, he'll get some sympathy rather than anger.

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6 minutes ago, spunko said:

Most of this is an attempt by Boris to frame the narrative so that it looks like barmy Remoaners are forcing him to call an election. He doesn't want to look like May did, calling an unnecessary election to boost his own power, even though this is exactly what he wants.  If it fails, like it did for May, he'll get some sympathy rather than anger.

He'd struggle to make the case for an election with the fixed parliament rule in place. Ditching the core retainers and willing enough to lose majority does make the fixed parliament rule look absurd and open to challenge.

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4 minutes ago, Great Guy said:

The crazy thing is the EU could genuinely have been a good thing. We do need a European organisation that discusses European concerns..

However it morphed into something that quite frankly fucked over the citizens of wealthier European countries. 

Is there such thing as "European concern", though? Unless by "European" you mean "western". There's very little in common between, say, UK, Czech Republic, Italy, and Estonia. Not to mention non-EU European countries like Belarus or Serbia. A Pan-European organization covering politics, economics and everyday life is bound to fail as there are too many conflicting interests.

UK, Germany and France would be much better off forming their own club, similat to Visegrad Group.

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I was about to post something which I think is the Trump card for Boris & Co.  I have thought better of it however as I don't want to give the game away yet.  I'll post it later, perhaps after the prorogation period has started. 

Edited by the gardener

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